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Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward. Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits. The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline. “Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It” You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor. Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity. Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures. AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash." For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI. Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them. Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks. The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize? Let Us Know Your Thoughts! With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradingView
23
MSFT Share Price Plummets After Earnings ReportMSFT Share Price Plummets After Earnings Report, But It’s Not All Bad Yesterday, after the main trading session on the Nasdaq, Microsoft released its second-quarter report: → Earnings per share: actual = $2.95, forecast = $2.93; → Gross revenue: actual = $64.72 billion, forecast = $64.38 billion. Despite key figures exceeding analyst expectations, MSFT's share price plummeted, falling below the psychological threshold of $400 in after-hours trading. Investor disappointment may have been caused by the slowdown in growth of its cloud business and significant financial investments in AI infrastructure—a long-term investment with delayed payback. Could the decline continue? Today in pre-market trading, MSFT's price recovered to $411, suggesting that the initial negative reaction to the report may have been overly pessimistic. Additionally, there might have been a cascade of stop-loss liquidations below $400 and the June low around $405, which seemed "secure" when the price was above $460. Technical analysis of MSFT’s chart shows that price action in 2024 formed an ascending blue channel. If the pre-market price doesn’t change significantly, today’s opening will be just below the channel’s lower boundary. If the RSI considered extended hours data, it might indicate exiting a deeply oversold zone (similar signals in 2024 had profit potential). If the sharp decline followed by a strong recovery signifies the liquidation of speculators (likely given the approximately 24% rise from the start of the year to mid-July), then MSFT's price could return to the blue channel and resume growth within it (channel boundaries might need adjustment). Wall Street analysts remain positive. According to TipRanks, the average MSFT forecast is $509.42 within 12 months (above the historical high). All 26 surveyed analysts recommend buying MSFT stock. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
$MSFT ending diagonal? Lower prices ahead?I was long calls of NASDAQ:MSFT into this morning and took profits in the first couple hours of trading. I initially thought we would see a move higher to the upper resistance at $455 or potentially as high as $465, but price couldn't break that $453 level. After relooking at the chart, it looks like we're forming an ending diagonal. If we break down from here, I could see a large corrective move back down to that $397 or $370 support level (or potentially to the lower support levels). The risk of downside was not worth the potential $2 gain from here. There's still a chance that we break higher and tag that upper resistance, but there are signs of weakness showing on the chart to me. We should see what direction we move by the end of the week. Decision time.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by benjihyam
MSFT still wave 4 we now seem to be in wave3 of C The chart posted is that of MSFT the BELL WEATHER has now drop in a clear wave 3 of C down into .50% from the peak to the oct low it is also a 15.9 % decline the same decline on a pct basis as we saw from july 2023 to the low of oct 2023 . the last support under all bullish wave count would be 371 this is .382 from peak 465 to 213 low oct . it is also wave a x 1.618 to = wave C at the same point . WAS that the super cycle peak at 465 ?? I have my doubts this is why I took june 2025 calls . I would look for selling at the 200 at 401 but once we close above 422 I would look for targets in the 545 area
NASDAQ:MSFT
by wavetimer
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – A week that has it allIt’s a huge week ahead by way of event risk for traders to navigate positions over – traders, therefore, need to be aware of key timings and consider the possibility for volatility and if there is a skew in the directional risk when the market learns of the outcome. That is typically a function of reviewing expectations and the outcome relative to what is ‘priced in’, market positioning and liquidity. US earnings the marquee risk this week I would argue that for single stock and equity index traders US earnings will likely prove to be the most influential factor, with 40% of the S&P500 market cap due to report this week, with 4 of the 6 biggest market cap names in the NAS100 reporting. With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote wide-index volatility. Nvidia and Apple aside, company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday (when MSFT report) could get lively, so make sure you’ve got our US 24hr equity offering on your platform to assess (and even trade) the ensuing move. US nonfarm payrolls will offer meaningful insights for macro heads US nonfarm payrolls are the next most meaningful event risk for me. From a playbook/risk perspective, if the payrolls print comes out around 200k, with an unchanged unemployment rate then making a call on the USD, NAS100 and gold is a tough exercise as the macro argument doesn’t really evolve. It is easier clearly to consider the path of the USD if we see a payrolls print below 170k, concurrently with a higher unemployment (U/E) rate, and a further moderation in average earnings. In fact, if we see a U/E rate above 4.1% then one could argue the US swaps pricing may even price a small probability of a 50bp cut in the September FOMC meeting – a factor which should suggest buying USDs because there is little chance that will play out. A lower U/E rate, and above 200k payrolls would make the macro somewhat messy as it challenges the strong consensus position for a cut in September. The FOMC meeting to open the door to cuts The Fed meeting statement and Powell’s presser is really an exercise in assessing what’s priced into the US swaps/rates curve and whether the tone sufficiently meets these expectations for easing. The door needs to be opened for a cut or US 2yr Treasury yield will spike higher, and the USD will rally hard, taking US equity lower. The options market implies a -/+1% move in the S&P500 on FOMC day, which is above the typical -/+0.8% move we’ve seen in recent meetings - so the market is priced for increased movement, and that needs to be accounted for in our risk and position sizing. The BoJ meeting will get good airtime, and while the JPY has undergone a huge rally of late, let’s not forget that the BoJ also have a strong history of disappointing those calling for hawkish policy action. I am somewhat sceptical that BoJ action will have much of an effect on the JPY anyhow, as the move we’ve seen has been more about a position unwind, with JPY-funded carry positions unwound, with cross-asset volatility and expected Fed policy changes the greater driver. Still, it’s a risk that could promote vol and needs to be considered. Aus Q2 CPI to make or break an August RBA rate hike The Aus CPI print will be closely watched by AUD and ASX200 traders, as it could put the 6 August RBA meeting as a truly ‘live’ event, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could take any chance of a rate hike off the table – much to the relief of the local equity market. We also see increased two-way risks to the GBP with the BoE meeting a lineball call as to whether the BoE cut bank rate. While the EU and Swiss CPI reports could also move the dial on the EUR and CHF. Elsewhere, I will be watching crude oil and gold in the wake of rising geopolitical news flow between Israel and Hezbollah. While Trump’s weekend speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville has cemented Bitcoin (and the miners) as a key election trade. US Earnings this week – It’s a busy week on the US corporate reporting calendar. 40% of the S&P500 market cap report numbers, but the names that should get the greatest attention from clients include: AMD (the options market implies a -/+7.7% move on the day of reporting), Boeing (-/+4.2%), Microsoft (-/+4.7%), Meta (-/+8.7%), (QCOM -/+7.6%), Coinbase (-/+9.8%), Apple (-/+3.8%), Amazon (-/+7.2%) and Intel (-/+7.4%). The ASX200 full-year earnings season commences with Rio Tinto starting proceedings on Wednesday. Central bank meetings due this week: BoJ Meeting (Wednesday – no set time) – The majority of economists see the BoJ keeping rates unchanged at 0.1%, although the distribution of these estimates range includes a 10bp, 15bp and even 25bp hike. Japan Swaps market price a 10bp hike at a 50% probability. There will also be a focus on any changes to the monthly pace of BoJ bond buying, where the central view is we see the monthly pace taken from Y6t p/m to Y4.5t. With the trade-weighted JPY rallying 2.6% last week, a number of traders have covered JPY shorts into the meeting, and positioning is far less extreme. Fed Reserve meeting and Chair Powell Press conference (Thursday 04:00 AEST) – the Fed will leave rates on hold, but the tone of the FOMC statement should evolve to show the Fed has greater confidence in the inflation outlook and to lay the groundwork for a cut in the September FOMC meeting. With a 25bp cut in September now fully priced, and 67bp (or 2.7 25bp cuts) priced by December, the move in the USD, gold and US equity will come in the tone of the FOMC statement and chair Powell’s press conference relative to this pricing. Will the statement meet these expectations sufficiently? BoE Meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST / 12:00 UK) – Eyeing UK swaps pricing, a 25bp cut is priced at a 50% probability, so market participants see a cut as finely balanced. Economists, however, see a greater probability of easing, with 24 of 32 polled by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp cut to pull bank rate to 5%. The split in the MPC votes for a hold/cut may also be closely followed. Marquee economic data & consensus expectations: US nonfarm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for payrolls to come in at 178k (economists’ estimates range from 225k to 70k), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings at 3.7% (from 3.9%). There may be disruptions that impact the nonfarm payrolls print, notably from Hurricane Beryl, so forecasting the jobs report is typically a huge challenge. An unemployment print that ticks up to 4.2%, with an NFP print below 170k would be a surprise, but it could feasibly bring a 50bp cut onto the table in September, at least in swaps/rates pricing. Other notable US economic data points this week that could move markets include Consumer confidence (Wed) and ISM Manufacturing (Thursday). Australia Q2 CPI (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Headline CPI is expected at 1% Q/Q / 3.8% y/y, with trimmed-mean CPI at 1% q/q / 4% y/y (the economist estimates range from 4.1% to 3.8%). For a more detailed preview on Aus CPI, see my preview EU CPI (Wed 19:00 AEST) – Headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% y/y (unchanged), with core CPI at 2.8% y/y (from 2.9%). The market already sees a cut from the ECB in the September meeting, but China manufacturing & services PMIs (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in a little worse than the prior month at 49.4 (from 49.5), with services PMI expected at 50.2 (50.5). Switzerland CPI (Friday 16:30 AEST) – Headline CPI expected at 1.3% y/y (unchanged) with core CPI also unchanged at 1.1% y/y. Good luck to all.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered MSFT when they bought a stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-11-15, for a premium of approximately $13.05. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market? #AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet. The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course. But the speculation and new companies will. 20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone. Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
TVC:VIXShort
by BallaJi
1
How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage?How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage? On 19th July, a global outage occurred. Numerous computers running Windows worldwide experienced "blue screens of death" (BSOD), affecting companies in different sectors, including airlines, hospitals, media, banks, and others. The outage was caused by a CrowdStrike's Falcon Sensor update, a component of the Windows system that essentially works to protect computers from cyber threats. CrowdStrike quickly acknowledged the issue, stating that it was not a cyberattack but an update error, and suggested a solution. According to CNBC, the large-scale outage did not significantly impact the operation of most financial markets. Representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stated on Friday that they were operating despite the issues with the CrowdStrike update. The only noticeable unpleasant consequence for most was the inability to calculate the Russell stock indices, including the popular Russell 2000. However, the confusion was resolved later on Friday. At the same time, the large-scale outage affected stock prices, including Microsoft. In pre-market trading on Friday, MSFT's price dropped below $430, but during the main session, the price managed to rise above it. As technical analysis of the MSFT chart shows, the $430 level is important – as it acted as resistance in March-May 2024. Therefore, its role as support might be justified by analysts. Additionally, the MSFT share price is near the lower boundary of the upward channel (shown in blue), which may provide additional support. However, no one can guarantee that the mentioned support levels will lead to a subsequent bullish impulse. On 19th July, we wrote about bearish signs on META stock charts. These are bearish aggression signs, which are concerning: → the price's inability to reach the upper boundary of the blue channel in early July; → a wide bearish gap when breaking through the median on 17th July. Wall Street analysts remain positive for now. According to TipRanks, the average forecast for MSFT is $504.12 (+15.33% from the current price) over the next 12 months. Microsoft's Q2 earnings report, scheduled for release on 30 July, has the potential to significantly alter the balance of sentiments. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
MSFT: A Potential Buy Amid Market Volatility.Given the current technical indicators and market conditions, here is a speculative trading strategy for MSFT: Long Position: Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the price approaches the strong support level around $418.53. Price Target: Aim for the resistance level at $455.40 initially, with a potential to reach $492.85 in the medium term. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $410 to mitigate potential losses. Short Position: Entry Point: If the stock breaks below the $418.53 support level, consider a short position. Price Target: Target the next support level at $390.10. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $430 to limit potential losses. Examining the candlestick patterns, MSFT has displayed a series of red candles with significant upper wicks, suggesting persistent selling pressure. The price action reflects a bearish sentiment in the short term, but the long-term trend remains bullish, supported by the company’s robust fundamentals and continuous growth in its cloud computing division, Azure.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by AxiomEx
MSFT support 438.8 .382/50% =wave 4 5th ahead 473/488The chart posted is that of MSFT we have now dropped .066 % and this is equal to the last wave drop making waves 2 and 4 equal .And the drop is .50 % of the rally from 404.5 to the peak 469.25 and we are also at .382 of the rally from 388 low april , if we break here I would look for the decline to drop to 431.5/428.8 before we turnup and see the last up phase in the Bull market targets are from 473 to 488 I lead towards 481
NASDAQ:MSFT
by wavetimer
MSFT: Potential Top SignalThe daily chart of MSFT highlights a potential top signal characterized by a bearish candlestick pattern following a strong uptrend. This signal indicates a possible reversal or at least a significant pullback. The bearish candlestick pattern near the top suggests that sellers are gaining control after a strong bullish run. A key level to watch on the daily chart is the bullish rejection support line at $458.97, which is the low of the previous bullish candlestick. The 21-day EMA is another critical support level that can provide additional confirmation of the trend direction. The hourly chart provides a more granular view of the recent price action, showing a bearish pivot point around $464.47. This level marks the point where the price has shown a significant rejection, forming a lower high and a subsequent lower low, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. The red arrows on the chart highlight the direction of the recent downward movement, suggesting continued bearish pressure. The potential top signal on the daily chart and the bearish pivot point on the hourly chart indicate a possible continuation of the downward movement. If the price breaks below the $458.97 support line with increased volume, the 21 EMA (D) will be its next technical target. If the price manages to hold above the $458.97 support line and shows signs of reversal, such as bullish candlestick patterns, it could indicate a resumption of the uptrend. It all depends on how it’ll react now that it is approaching its key support level. In summary, MSFT is showing potential bearish signals with a top signal on the daily chart and a bearish pivot point on the hourly chart. However, key support levels need to be monitored for any signs of reversal. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
Microsoft's Earnings: A Prudent Approach for InvestorsInvestors often face a dilemma when considering whether to buy a stock just before its earnings announcement or wait it out. This decision can have significant implications for their portfolios. Currently, software giant Microsoft presents investors with precisely this dilemma, as it prepares to unveil its fiscal third-quarter numbers after Thursday's closing bell. While the company has shown impressive performance in recent times, concerns have arisen due to a recent decline in its stock. This prompts the question: should investors anticipate disappointing Q3 results, or could this be an overreaction with potential bullish catalysts in the earnings report? While predicting the future remains elusive, refraining from purchasing Microsoft stock ahead of Thursday's report appears prudent from a risk-management perspective. Here's why: Firstly, short-term fluctuations, including those triggered by earnings reports, often pale in comparison to long-term trends. Regardless of Friday's outcome, the impact on Microsoft's trajectory over the next five years is likely to be minimal. Thus, optimizing trade entries based on short-term movements may not align with a long-term investment horizon. Moreover, recent history serves as a reminder. Despite exceeding expectations in the last quarter, Microsoft experienced a slight decline post-earnings due to disappointing guidance. While past events may not perfectly predict future outcomes, they can offer insights into market behavior. Another factor to consider is the current market sentiment. The intensified selling of Microsoft shares suggests investor caution ahead of the earnings release. Whether due to perceived overvaluation or broader market weakness, this reluctance to hold the stock warrants attention. However, exercising caution does not guarantee a decline post-earnings. Microsoft's fundamental strengths, including its dominance in the personal computer ecosystem and significant strides in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, position it for long-term growth. Analysts anticipate robust revenue and earnings growth in the foreseeable future. For those hesitant to act, patience may be a virtue. While delaying may not yield substantial benefits, it aligns with a focus on the bigger picture. Microsoft's enduring value transcends quarterly fluctuations, making it a compelling long-term investment. Ultimately, the decision to buy or wait hinges on individual risk tolerance and investment goals. While uncertainty looms over Thursday's earnings, Microsoft's solid fundamentals suggest that any short-term volatility presents buying opportunities for those with a long-term perspective.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FOREXN1
1
MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below): That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend. The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradingShot
1