MSTR Bounce expectedIt looks like price found a support at the L-MLH.
From here, I expect a bounce, at least up to the Center-Line, if not all the way up to the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
Long term, my expectations have not changed.
MSTR
Let's break the range on $MSTR!Exciting news for crypto enthusiasts! A new state strategic reserve for digital assets that features five top cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ether front and center. Bitcoin, the undisputed heavyweight of the crypto world, saw an impressive 8% surge to about $90,800 following the announcement, NASDAQ:MSTR
Alright let's do this $BTCT!Exciting news for crypto enthusiasts! A new state strategic reserve for digital assets that features five top cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ether front and center. Bitcoin, the undisputed heavyweight of the crypto world, saw an impressive 8% surge to about $90,800 following the announcement NASDAQ:BTCT
MicroStrategy $MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% DropMicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% Drop Feb28'25
With recent downturns in the crypto market, Bitcoin's sharp drop has significantly impacted companies like MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , which has heavily invested in crypto. I've kept this analysis updated for my students throughout the week and figured I'd post it publicly.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Turning BTC into Revenue: MicroStrategy's Innovative ApproacMicroStrategy's Wild Ride: Navigating Bitcoin's Volatility with a "Yield" Strategy
MicroStrategy (MSTR), the enterprise software company that famously pivoted to a Bitcoin acquisition strategy, has seen its stock price plummet by roughly 16% year-to-date. This downturn mirrors the broader volatility experienced by Bitcoin, which has faced significant headwinds amidst rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, despite the short-term turbulence, a significant portion of stock analysts remain bullish on MicroStrategy's long-term outlook, primarily due to the company's innovative "Bitcoin yield" strategy.
MicroStrategy's bold decision to adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, spearheaded by former CEO Michael Saylor, has inextricably linked its fortunes to the cryptocurrency's performance. When Bitcoin surges, MSTR typically follows suit, and conversely, downturns in the crypto market exert downward pressure on the stock. This direct correlation has made MSTR a high-beta play on Bitcoin, offering investors amplified exposure to the digital asset's price fluctuations, both positive and negative.
The recent decline in MSTR's stock price can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation have dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. This has led to a significant sell-off in the crypto market, dragging down Bitcoin's price and, consequently, MSTR's valuation.
Secondly, concerns about regulatory scrutiny in the cryptocurrency space have added to the market's unease. Increased regulatory oversight and potential crackdowns on crypto exchanges and projects can create uncertainty and dampen investor confidence.
Lastly, general market sentiment towards growth stocks and technology companies has been bearish, further contributing to MSTR's decline. As a company closely associated with the tech sector and the volatile cryptocurrency market, MicroStrategy has been particularly vulnerable to these broader market trends.
Despite these challenges, the bullish sentiment from stock analysts stems from MicroStrategy's unique approach to generating "Bitcoin yield." This strategy involves utilizing the company's substantial Bitcoin holdings to secure loans and generate revenue through various financial instruments.
One key component of this strategy is the use of Bitcoin-backed loans. MicroStrategy has successfully leveraged its Bitcoin holdings to obtain loans at favorable interest rates, effectively monetizing its digital assets without selling them. This allows the company to generate cash flow while maintaining its long-term Bitcoin position.
Furthermore, MicroStrategy is exploring other avenues to generate Bitcoin yield, such as participating in staking and lending platforms. These activities allow the company to earn interest or rewards on its Bitcoin holdings, further enhancing its revenue streams.
Analysts argue that this "Bitcoin yield" strategy provides MicroStrategy with a sustainable business model, even during periods of Bitcoin price volatility. By generating revenue from its Bitcoin holdings, the company can mitigate the impact of price fluctuations and maintain its financial stability.
Moreover, the company's continued accumulation of Bitcoin, even during price downturns, demonstrates its long-term commitment to the cryptocurrency. This unwavering belief in Bitcoin's future potential is seen by many analysts as a strong signal of confidence.
However, the "Bitcoin yield" strategy is not without its risks. The crypto lending market is still relatively nascent and subject to regulatory uncertainties. Counterparty risk and the potential for loan defaults are also factors that could impact MicroStrategy's financial performance.
Another element that is important to consider is the level of debt Microstrategy has taken on. The company has funded its Bitcoin purchases through debt offerings, and while the "Bitcoin yield" strategy is designed to cover the interest payments, a prolonged bear market could put pressure on the company's balance sheet.
The success of MicroStrategy's strategy hinges on the long-term appreciation of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the company's Bitcoin holdings will increase in value, and its "Bitcoin yield" strategy will become even more profitable. However, if Bitcoin's price stagnates or declines, the company's financial performance could be negatively impacted.
In conclusion, MicroStrategy's stock price has experienced significant volatility in line with Bitcoin's performance. While the recent downturn has raised concerns, stock analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects, citing its innovative "Bitcoin yield" strategy. This strategy, which involves leveraging Bitcoin holdings to generate revenue, provides MicroStrategy with a unique business model that could potentially mitigate the impact of Bitcoin's volatility.
However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with this strategy, including regulatory uncertainties, counterparty risk, and the potential for loan defaults. The success of MicroStrategy's strategy ultimately depends on the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, MicroStrategy's ability to adapt and navigate these challenges will be crucial to its future success.
Strategy Hit SupportMSTR should easily hold $246 and make its way back up to $418 and form it's next support there.
Good luck!
Microstrategy Enters "The Valley of Risk"A term I have coined, "The Valley of Risk", describes a price chart which has had a prior very strong bullish trend, pulls back to its 50% Retracement Support, and then fails to hold it... entering a long, grinding, bearish deflation which coincides with the heavy negative emotion being felt by those still holding the bag.
Inside the "Valley of Risk" nothing one does is correct:
If you sell... it will bottom and rally
If you buy... it will continue down
If you baghold... it will continue to go down until you cannot stand it and #1
This is just a pattern of human emotion being reflected on a price chart... which is what price charts ultimately are. It is best to avoid going into the Valley of Risk and have strict rules against bagholding. Deploy your capital elsewhere that there is a better potential rate of return.
When I teach about this concept I always look back to Zillow NASDAQ:Z . This was a stock I bought "on a dip" at 111 and made the right decision to sell my position at a loss at 102 when the stock price violated the 50% Support. This allowed me to avoid the horrible Earnings miss gap and the final -74% depreciation. My position still would not have recovered as of writing.
As I published months ago, it became clear to me that the over exuberance and fancy financial buzz words being thrown around about NASDAQ:MSTR were signs of a ponzi about to collapse. Well, the "Bitcoin nuclear reactor" has cooled and the leverage baked into Microstrategy would be its downfall. That has now come to pass. There are some other interesting elements of price action which have been textbook in this decline that I want to talk about in this post.
The 50% Retracement:
The operative level for the last 3 months has been 328. This is the 50% Retracement of the YOLO rally. In the pullback from the ATH 440 became the 50% Retracement Resistance.
The Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Confirmed:
The other textbook setup was when the Ichimoku Cloud Breakout was confirmed by the Lagging Span entering clear bearish space after price had exited the cloud. Interestingly, this happened at the same exact day as Bitcoin; last Friday. You can read more about this strategy and my 14 year study of how effective it is in my recent Ideas:
So what now?
That is the eternal question of "The Valley of Risk". There is never a good answer because the technical supports have been broken.
Personally though I need to answer this question for my bearish positions. The most logical point to look would be the Volume Profile POC at 165. However, Microstrategy is going to move concurrent to Bitcoin itself and knowing the past bearish cycle patterns this week, through brutal, will find a bottom. I do not believe it will be the final bottom only that price may hesitate at some point for perhaps even a month.
My trade management
This week I will be selling premium against my long Puts, which go out to 2027, to offset my Theta while still remaining short Delta.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) AnalysisCompany Overview:
MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR combines business intelligence solutions with a Bitcoin-focused investment strategy, holding 471,107 BTC (~$18B) as of now. The company has made significant strides in Bitcoin accumulation, positioning itself as a leveraged play on Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
Key Catalysts:
Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation 📈
MicroStrategy continues to expand its Bitcoin holdings, raising $563M through an 8% Series A Preferred Stock offering to buy more BTC.
The "21/21" Plan 💡
This plan aims to raise $42B over three years, positioning MSTR as a strategic Bitcoin growth bet.
Indirect Bitcoin Exposure for Institutions 💰
With regulatory uncertainty around Bitcoin ETFs, MSTR offers a secure method for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through equity.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on MSTR above $295.00-$300.00, reflecting its Bitcoin-centric strategy and institutional adoption.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $600.00-$620.00, driven by continued Bitcoin accumulation and the growth of institutional interest in crypto exposure.
📢 MicroStrategy—The Bitcoin-Business Intelligence Hybrid. #Bitcoin #CryptoExposure #MSTR
MicroStrategy’s Premium Is Fading – Time to Brace for a Drop?The strong optimism following Trump’s election in November fueled a Bitcoin rally, which in turn led to a massive surge in MicroStrategy’s ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) stock.
However, after reaching an all-time high near $550, MSTR experienced a sharp decline. Interestingly, despite Bitcoin hovering around $100K and even attempting a new ATH recently, this momentum hasn’t been reflected in MSTR’s stock price.
From a technical perspective, the price has broken below its ascending trendline and is now consolidating between $320 and $360.
Given the unjustified premium (at least in my opinion), I expect further downside for the stock.
Additionally, if Bitcoin fails to hold the key $90K confluence support, MSTR could see a sharp plunge below $200.
MSTR important levelMSTR is showing a bearish flag on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. Was yesterday's pump just a pullback, or will the stock recover today? If it drops below the red line, it is 90% likely to be shorted. If the stock rebound, touch the red line, it is 90% likely to be long. All the best and trade with cares.
MSTR - Short again with two profit targetsP4 was a rejection at the Center-Line, the perfect short. To me the current situation commands me to add to this short.
BTC is weaker and in a scary spot. MSTR also weaker and on the way to the PTG1. This time, the add to my short is not a technical signal, but a gut feeling and a combination of the current world situation.
And hey, I maybe get slapped because I FOMO into this. But that's OK. Sometimes I need a little bit more Fun in the Game. I do such unintelligent trading when the overall performance allow me to.
Let's go Captain Ahab!!!
MicroStrategy’s Make or Break MomentThe chart shows a breakdown from a descending wedge pattern, followed by a retest of the broken support turned resistance. A short position has been placed, anticipating further downside. The price is currently testing the retest zone, and rejection from this level could confirm continuation to the downside.
The stop-loss is strategically placed above 455.10, beyond a key resistance level, to minimize risk in case of a failed breakdown. The take-profit target is set near 224.56, aligning with a significant demand zone. The current price of 335.94 indicates minor volatility, but the structure suggests a potential bearish continuation if the price fails to reclaim the resistance zone.
If the breakdown holds, the next move could accelerate towards lower levels, making this a crucial moment for price confirmation. A reclaim of the resistance zone could invalidate the setup and trigger a short squeeze. The market’s reaction at this level will determine the next directional move.
MSTR shows even more weakness compared to BitcoinI posted about MSTR earlier.
It's not funny what we see here.
MSTR should hold, but instead shows more weakness.
The only "Hope" investors have, that it holds at the red Centerline where it intersects the white 1/4 line.
Read the full update here:
MSTR - Is Saylor about to go sailing again?! 58% upsideNASDAQ:MSTR
Is Saylor about to go sailing again?!
Breakout-Retest-Higher! 👏
🎯$450🎯$543🎯$610
Not financial advice
MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position.
The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline.
For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position.
I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits.
That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger.
If there’s strength, I’ll close it.
A double top may be forming in BitcoinA double top may be forming in Bitcoin. If you're aggressive, you can short it now, and conservative ones can wait for a drop below 90,000.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit.
Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.00
Buying Power Effect: 23.00
ROC at Max: 30.43%
50% Max: 3.50
ROC at 50% Max: 15.22%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
Major Price Movement Incoming for MSTR!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NASDAQ:MSTR trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on MSTR’s price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
Why MicroStrategy Will FailIf you listen to Michael Saylor, watch what he is doing with his financial engineering, and "learn about Bitcoin" it seems incredibly obvious that... MicroStrategy WILL NOT fail . At least, that is what I have been told by those that stand to gain massively from Bitcoin's price appreciation. It makes a lot of sense: corner the market of Bitcoin supply => force the price into "discovery" mode and everyone that believed in him and Bitcoin will be rich to the point they feel they deserve for being so prescient with their wisdom.
The history of finance does not bode well for such absolute certainty...
I began shorting Microstrategy with Puts over a year ago. "Being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable in trading/investing." I've lost money. But that did not dissuade me from calling BS on this scheme.
Up until November 22, 2024 it had been a small trade that had not worked out so far. But on that day Saylor gave a CNBC interview (highly recommend looking it up) where he talked about their "core business", their "Bitcoin reactor", "selling volatility", and lots of complex financial jargon. To some, this might come across as brilliance. To me, having been in markets for a long time and studying their history it was patently obvious he was doing the classic, "if you can't amaze with brilliance then dazzle with bullshit" tactic. This was not a scam, nor a ponzi, nor a fraud... in absolute terms. We don't actually have a word for it. But it needs a derogatory term because people are going to lose money buying into it.
I don't believe in karma. What I believe is that people cannot help be themselves and repeat their character flaws and patterns. This is not the first time Saylor has engaged in "financial engineering". Over 20 years ago MSTR (same company, same symbol) got caught by the SEC for doing much the same thing a Enron in their accounting practices. They were levied a big fine and the stock dropped -60% in a single day. Roughly two weeks later... the entire dot-com bubble imploded. Was MSTR the catalyst for this collapse? Unknown. But it certainly did not help keep the bubble going...
Once again Saylor is exploiting the financial system. Or as gamers would call it; "clever use of game mechanics." There is nothing illegal about what he is doing (that is apparent). It's all out in the open. But it's leverage. Lots of leverage. MSTR ran out of simple debt and have found other ways to make cash to buy Bitcoin. Every week they keep "buying the top" as cheerleaders for this asset; Bitcoin. Trying to get others to join in their crusade to... I guess get it to $1 million now. Still valuing it in fiat terms while claiming to be changing finance (do they still want to do that anymore with Blackrock being their best backer? Unknown.
I left all my Bitcoin Maxi chats as part of a New Year's Resolution to argue less with people on the Internet after 2024. When I left I was still defending my short while they were eagerly buying the dip. With all investments... time will tell.
The Trade
I have been purchasing Puts in different traunches with different strikes going out all the way to 2027. These long term Puts have their theta offset by selling shorter duration options to keep myself theta positive. This has been great over the last 2 months with increased IV. During the recent drop to $285 I actually found myself delta positive for a day. I wanted to get "more short" and added as much risk as I felt comfortable on the last push up to $380. Now delta negative/theta positive.
Where I stop out: $390 is a key volume profile level topside. If price gets back above there I consider myself wrong... for now... and start to unwind risk or hedge more
How I manage: I will continue to manage my delta/theta as long as IV makes it fun while always trying to stay negative. Buy long dated puts on pops up; Sell some Puts on every move down. The goal is for MSTR's debt to start getting called this year and they be forced to make some hard choices. This may require Bitcoin and/or the equities market to collapse in 1-2 years. If so; MSTR will be hurt tremendously.
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day.
What a blast! §8-)
I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM.
Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more).
So, what do we have here?
MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up.
Then came the decisive breakdown.
An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south.
Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks.
But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south.
For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence.
Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position.
Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
MSTR back to the $400s | 7:1 RatioNASDAQ:MSTR has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart. Given that moves like this often depend on CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's price action, it's something to keep an eye on.
However, with NASDAQ:MSTR having dropped from nearly $500 per share, I believe we are in good value territory. Additionally, this trade offers a 7:1 risk-to-reward ratio if we attempt to front-run the completion of the pattern.
Possible downtrend for $MSTRWe observe that NASDAQ:MSTR is breaking out of a zone that could determine the downtrend. This is also visible in the Dynamic RSI, which shows a continuous decline. Additionally, the current news for BTC is not favorable, suggesting that BTC could gradually decrease. This might mark the beginning of an Altcoin season. Since NASDAQ:MSTR holds a significant amount of BTC, this has a substantial impact on its stock price, potentially causing it to fall into the resistance zone.
