MSTR: Is there any value here?MicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has a current BTC balance of 252,220, with plans released during the October ‘24 earnings call to issue both $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt to finance further BTC purchases through 2026.
The question becomes, is there value here? If the price of MSTR becomes increasingly dependent on the price of BTC, then why not just buy the underlying asset? The latter can likely already be answered. The price is entirely dependent. As noted in the company’s earnings call and outlined in the excerpt from the CoinGeek article below, MSTR’s software business has taken a backseat as the company has completely shifted its focus toward its BTC plan.
“On October 30, MicroStrategy released its Q3 financial report card, revealing a sharp decline in revenue from its (formerly) core business intelligence software business, while expenses and net losses saw significant increases. Software revenue for the three months ending September 30 fell 10.3% year-on-year, while the rising costs of that revenue resulted in a net loss of $18.5 million.”
During the call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor insisted that MSTR is not purely a BTC proxy. Looking at the price performance for the past year, you can see that MSTR has outperformed BTC by a multiple greater than 4. As markets tend to do, this is likely the pricing in of future acquisitions. Unlike ETPs (or people, for that matter), MSTR has placed itself in a unique position, with the ability to utilize the various avenues of capital markets to increase its holdings. While this is fundamentally opportunistic, the increase in shares dilutes existing shareholder ownership, reducing their proportional share of MSTR's overall equity. However, given the long-term potential appreciation of BTC, the value of the underlying asset may offset this dilution, ultimately providing greater returns despite the increase in outstanding shares. This is no different than any other growth-oriented company, albeit Apple, NVIDIA, etc., actually produces something. If the price of the underlying asset goes down, this further decreases the BTC value per share, leading to a potential point of clarity for shareholders asking themselves, “why not just own the underlying asset?”
Looking ahead, I do think MSTR provides a unique opportunity. Inevitably, given the scenario described above, the stock will continue to face elevated volatility (something that the company has noted as a positive). Given future declines in the price of the underlying asset (presumably in 2026 and 2027), this allows MSTR to accumulate more BTC, reducing its cost basis and optimistically allowing investors to enjoy increased volatility to the upside yet again.
