Dollar gains, Dollar Games [$DXY, $BTC, $CRO, $MSTR] i'm still holding my $CRO short trade, but since my last update the $DXY reversed off it's double top high's from yesterday, $MSTR has come down significantly and yet much of the market is mixed. Big moves for $BTC incoming!
$CRO price continues to stagnate as it's hitting strong resistance zone and the top of the daily distribution fann range. Check my previous update for more on that... GL out there!
MSTR
$MSTR Lines of Liquidity [$CRO short in action, $DXY pump]I'm still working out how trading view recording works, and it seems the upload failed, so i'm not sure exactly what will be connected to this post, but let's see....
$MSTR opened strong today on the back of a slightly higher $BTC since yesterday's US market close. My hypothesis remains that volatility will be the name of the game in the coming days, as we are sandwhiched between two pre-market gaps. One from last Thu-Fri session at 300-325, which was nearly 5%, and multiple smaller ones down near 210-230. The shorter term gaps are more likely to be filled in the coming hours/days than the longer term-ones which have already failed to fill. But they'll all be filled, which means we can expect a range of at least 210-300 or 30+% moves in the coming days/weeks while we wait for summer to end and the US FED to announce it's highly anticipated rate hikes - estimated to be between 50bp and 100bp, depending on the inflation CPI numbers and other factors.
I'm active in a CRO trade, accumulating with anticipation for a move to the downside. I'm shorting through .125 - .129, with a stop loss set at .13. Looking to cover at ~.12
And I'm slowing distributing my open MSTR trade between 280-300.
The $DXY continues to pump, while $BTC remains relatively flat, which in my book indicates a divergence worthy of our close attention and a surprise up someone's sleeve. Who's playing games out there, who is it, really!?
$MSTR Level check MondayDaily range 265 - 283
End of month range 210 - 220
We've put another pre-market gapper into the books in today's opening session on US markets for Monday, opening -5% below friday's dismal close. WIthin the first 1h candle we've recovered most of the gap, and current 1h candle volume is higher than average, so demand is strong for the moment at these levels.
The most recent gap between 300 and 325 is sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a highly contested area since the start of the month, where trading ranged from Aug 1-10. Everyone who went long in that zone, and everything above it once the market managed to flip it into support are now completely trapped.
The gaps of mid to late July are calling from around 210 to 230, which lines up with the distribution fann I see in the chart, leading us down to exactly 210-230 range by the end of the month. This, unfortunately for the HODL'ers among us, is shaping up to be the most likely scenario....
Where are you at with $MSTR?
MicroStrategy still heading sub $100I still think we will se a last trip down in the $BTC price before heading for $30,000 per coin.
No doubt that $MSTR is extremely sensitive to that PA. Which is also why this stock will become extremely valuable once $BTC travels to new ATHs.
Not only does the company own a ton of coins, but they also have the #1 advocate and spokesperson for Bitcoin as their CEO. That's why I can easily see $MSTR outperform $BTC in this cycle.
I've got a chunk of fiat side-lined for when we enter the drawn box. An area in which the stock has spend quite a lot of time in in the past.
6/26/22 MSTRMicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $2.321B
Current Price: $205.44
Breakout price: $222.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $195.30-$135.90
Price Target: $404.50-$418.10
Estimated Duration to Target: 99-103d
Contract of Interest: $MSTR 10/21/22 220c
Trade price as of publish date: $44.80/contract
Microstrategy to sub $100 per stockGive me one good reason as to why $MSTR should not visit the lows of this fibonacci retracement .
Right now you can't.
Will it see ATH again? "Absolutely". But it will continue to bleed along $SPX and other stocks.
Good to hear Michael Taylor assure everyone that they will be fine no matter have bad $BTC will dump.
Does the Fed matter?INVESTMENT CONTEXT
Markets are weighing a possible 75bps rates hike at today's FOMC meeting. Were the Fed to follow suit on traders' expectations, it would be the steepest tightening since 1994
Traders price 255bps rate hikes from the Fed in its five remaining meetings this year
China's central bank refrained from cutting the interest rate to protect yuan from policy divergence with the U.S.
Freeport LNG announced its Texas assets will remain offline until September, and recover to full operations only in early 2023. Freeport LNG represents 10% of European seaborne energy supplies
Russia plans to reduce capacity of gas supply on Nord Stream pipeline by 40%
The U.S. extended till December 5 (instead of June 24) the validity of the license "authorizing transactions related to energy" to Russian entities under sanctions
Coinbase (COIN) will shed a fifth of its staff amidst the rout in blockchain assets. COIN shares are down 85% from IPO price tag
PROFZERO'S TAKE
While ProfOne ponders whether monetary policy is really the right place to look at to solve a crisis which is wholly industrial in nature, ProfZero keeps reminding that fixed income markets have taken for granted for too long the support from Central Banks. To see Italy now trying to roll over its debt without the safety net laid by the ECB will be a thing to behold - hopefully, only for positive reasons
Russia pulling the plug on gas while the U.S. quietly offers the means to avoid a much-spooked default; the channels of diplomacy are apparently running on a real low profile - but with what endgame in mind?
While speaking at the TechCrunch Sessions on June 15, Bill Gates characterized cryptocurrencies and NFTs as a market driven by sentiment. “As an asset class, it’s 100% based on the greater fool theory - that somebody’s going to pay more for it than I do”, he argued.
Indeed, the faith of blockchain asset holders is being put to test - just as much as in March 2020 or in the ICO crash of 2017. Even through this, ProfZero sticks by its mantra: always look at the fundamentals. While hype has definitely played a role ever since the infancy of the blockchain industry, the merits of the technology are there to be seen - if in doubt, ask any trader how a transaction is processed, and how many operational risks are taken at each and every step. Also Mr. Gates' understanding of NFTs leaves ProfZero dubious: the market of fine arts has left dusty auction houses and brought artists closer to investors, while beyond that, tokenization is nothing but the zeitgeist of the post-consumeristic era. Is this a call to BTC to USD 1mln (like Microstrategy's Michael Saylor reiterated recently)? Absolutely not. It is a call - to stay focused on the only thing that matters - value
PROFONE'S TAKE
Markets are waiting for today's decision of Federal Reserve about the next step of its rates-rising campaign. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said the Fed could help restore market confidence if it raises rates by 75bps today and in July - yet he also advised that 100bps would be better. On a markedly wilder note, investment manager Jeffrey Gundlach urged the Fed to take rates to 3% in one go - today. Amidst such notorious opinions, ProfOne's question is - does the Fed really matter? Actual inflation is one of fundamentals (energy and food); in May the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted inflation to cool to 2.7% only in 2023, implying that by the end or 2022 we may expect the figure to settle hardly lower than 5%. As argued also by ProfZero, this crisis is different from 2008 or 2020 - it is a crisis of the very industrial system that has been working for the last 20 years. Certainly monetary policy can and is providing already its contribution. But finance can't magically restructure energy, food and technology supply chains built in decades.
There was a time when Wall Street was thought to make money just by waving its magic wand; the Great Financial Crisis brought that sorcery show to an end. Hopefully, we won't repeat the same mistake again
$AMD $TSLA $MSTR $SPY I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMD 4H I AMD was rejected right near its downtrend on the daily. And we now have a bear flag formation on AMD. Support near $92 and $82 if the flag is broken.
TSLA 4H I TSLA has been trending down on the hourly ever since the beginning of April. We have resistance near $710 and $725. Support near $625 if $685 doesn't hold.
MSTR 2H I MSTR is breaking down from a current uptrend. We have resistance near $220 and support near $203 and $188. BTC is looking bearish over the weekend.
SPY 1D I SPY macrotrend remains bearish as we have been unable to see a higher low so far. Expecting support near $380, if it doesn't hold we can see $355!
Institutions entries and BTCMSTR GBTC BTC BWB
29k~32k range can represent a major support
Question:
Given macro and geopolitical conditions, would institutions snap-in at their entry range? Did they sold already?
if institutions already sold and don't want to re-buy at this range, we would go sub 28k.
I am sure inflation will stay longer, after this sudden deflationary event on assets, it is likely BTC stop to bleeding making a capitulation bottom.
$MSTR Bounce to ShortNatural covering/buyers here. Could see the lows get taken out and get shorts really worked up and emotional only to squeeze them out back to low $400s where quarterly vwap sits and is curling down. Would be a perfect way to trap new longs and also shake out the shorts looking to freeload and ride the momentum downwards. Some of this depends on BTC spot, some depends on the Q's and where the FOMC decision takes us tomorrow. IMO not a good company, pretty ugly balance sheet and I wouldn't be shocked to see this eventually go much much lower. As with intraday movements on anything tradeable, when price keeps probing lows and highs it doesn't not usually do so to bounce/reject like many retail is taught to buy/short at similar levels. It creeps around these levels to BREAK them even if momentarily, get everyone off sides and THEN make the real move up or down. Good luck.
NASDAQ:MSTR Bear of The DayMicroStrategy Incorporated provides enterprise analytics software and services worldwide. It offers MicroStrategy, an enterprise platform, which provides a modern analytics experience by delivering insights across multiple devices to users via hyperintelligence products, visualization and reporting capabilities, mobility features, and custom applications developed on the platform; analysts and data scientists with seamless access to trusted, governed data directly within their tools; and APIs and gateways, multiple deployment options, enterprise semantic graph, scalability, and security. The company also provides MicroStrategy Support that helps customers to achieve their system availability and uptime goals, and to improve the overall experience through highly responsive troubleshooting and proactive technical product support. In addition, it offers MicroStrategy Consulting that provides customers with architecture and implementation services to help them quickly realize results, and helps to achieve returns on investment derived from understanding of data; and MicroStrategy Education that offers free and paid learning options. The company provides its services through enterprise sales force and channel partners. It serves companies from a range of industries, including retail, consulting, technology, manufacturing, finance, banking, insurance, healthcare, education, and telecommunications, as well as the public sector. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.
MSTR looking to re-enter a SHORT position BTC breaking downMSTR's Michael Saylor is a FOOL. As a publically traded company he is a fiduciary and has a mandate to act responsible. Borrowing $2.5 billion dollars the company bondholders and shareholders are on the hook for to speculate on shitcoin will be the downfall of MSTR. I suspect there is (or SHOULD BE) an ongoing SEC investigation which could potentially bring indictments and a receivership of MSTR being setup to liquidate what's left of the companies assets and make the shareholders as whole as possible. Buying Bitcoin is no different that if Michael Saylor borrowed this money to buy lottery tickets, baseball cards, a 300 foot yacht. It's unlawful and not part of the overall business. MSTR will be under water soon as bitcoin continues breaking down because it is GARBAGE and has ZERO intrinsic value whatsoever like the other 18,000+ alt shitcoins. Attorneys, litigation, lawsuits, class actions will cause MSTR to be INSOLVENT.
Is BTC Going To 70k By EOY? Here's What I think. Good afternoon traders, I hope everybody's week is off to a good start!
So, I was perusing around the markets looking for my next play and I came across BTC's weekly chart and I couldn't ignore this gem. I think that we are sitting in the short term bottom of BTC and that it's very likely that we will see another rally into the end of the year. That being said, I know that the markets are crazy right now due to recent events, inflation, etc. However, from a pure TA standpoint I think that this is an absolute layup when partnered with BTC backed stocks such as $MSTR and my personal favorite $RIOT. We can see that we are beginning to cup in the weekly and hovering around our established support levels (typically indicative of an incoming uptrend and EMA cross).The circles on the RSI highlight a pattern that I've noticed. As you can see the last 3 times RSI entered this level it rallied the following days / weeks. Could be a coincidence but I figured I would explain my thought process.
I've noticed that $RIOT tends to almost always correlate very closely with BTC's movements even on a daily basis and we could grand slam some cheap calls down the road with them if we can see a similar pump to what we saw in Feb. - Mar. 2021.
I will be looking to load up on cheap OTM calls on both of these stocks both within the Jan 20th 2023 options chain. (This is my opinion only, not financial advice. DON'T copy me)
Thank you guys for all the support so far, and let me know if you'd like to see more of my ideas within the crypto space as well.
-Flippa.
#MSTR showing us the way for #BitcoinWill it Break the current bear flag that is forming?
How it performed during the Tech wreck (like all tech stocks)
which had no earnings , but relied on future projections of user growth ( eyeballs & clicks )
Lower prices seem inevitable if his #Bitcoin holdings go into the Red
Michael Saylor is a fool= any rallies are to be SOLD!!Anyone buying Bitcoin is a fool. It has NO INTRINSIC VALUE! Michael Saylor's Microstrategy has gambled billions of borrowed dollars on this garbage which has dwarfed the companies earnings against it's Bitcoin losses. Bitcoin is going to ZERO! It will NEVER EVER EVER replace the US Dollar. The US Government would ban it as contraband first. They allow it's existence solely to TAX the profits from the pump and dump scam. Bitcoin will ultimately bankrupt this company and it's delusional leader!
Bitcoin The greater fool theory in play here....... Bitcoin is one of over 12,000 shitcoins
The old adage: "If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you". 20 years from now it'll be replaced by: "If you believe that I have some Bitcoin to sell you".
The difference between the bridge and Bitcoin; the bridge has value, can be seen, touched, dismantled, recycled, can be turned into a toll bridge and produce income. Bitcoin is fiat, intangible, has no value, backed by nothing, tracks nothing, is nothing but a giant pump and dump global scam. Can it go higher? Sure! However, that makes it no more relevant as an investment than a lottery ticket. Today there are over 13,000 alt coins in the Crytpo market, all purporting the same level of "scarcity".
With the Federal Reserve printing currency and monetizing deficits by the tens of trillions there will be a dollar crisis and a Great Depression 2 in my lifetime. Since 1971 the US dollar which is pure fiat, backed by nothing and sooner than later will collapse when kicking the can down the road no longer is sustainable we will have to pay the piper. I hear people demanding more stimulus, the same people who are complaining about the cost of everything spiking and supply shortages. Well, DUH! You give people free money they're going to spend it causing artificial demand on a constrained supply chain. This is a direct result of the inflation courtesy the Federal Reserve. Inflation is money printing.
The Bitcoin= BITCON community has a compelling well thought out intricate intelligent theorem articulating why the US dollar will ultimately collapse, but where they are sorely mistaken is the US dollar will never be replaced by more fiat, especially something as volatile as this scam which can fluctuate 30 percent in hours . The gold standard will return once the US dollar collapses. BITCON pumpers purport the Federal Reserves of the world will be "forced" to buy Bitcoin, what a JOKE!!! They will never buy BITCON or any crypto currency. The US government (and world governments) will NEVER relinquish control, they will simply regulate BITCON out of existence if they feel in any way it could threaten their control over their respective collapsing currencies. Bitcoin and other crypto currencies- block chain fiats will be summarily shut down like Parler.
Bitcoin the CON has no uses, is not tangible, is expensive and inconvenient to exchange, is volatile, can be digitally hacked, lost or stolen and is going up for one reason. GREED!! Every gambler who is purchasing it in hopes to unload on an even larger sucker.
BTC exponential price range, oversold and cheap. BTC oversold. Fundamentals better than ever, several nations/governments recognizing and legitimizing on both micro (governors of states) and macro (entire countries) legislating in favor of bitcoin. Legal tender status. Tax advantages forming. End game likely when the federal reserve shows evidence of Bitcoin accumulation.
MicroStrategy testing FibonacciWe can see a high correlation between the company and BTC since the pandemic.
Looking at the monthly chart, the fact is that the price is now in an important Fibonacci region at 50%.
On the 1-hour chart, on the ADX indicator, we can see a decrease in the selling force (red arrows), and an increase in the buying force (green arrows),
forming a kind of symmetrical triangle, signaling a temporary indefiniteness.
I'm waiting in the cabin to see what happens.