Shorting Bitcoin via MSTRIf one wants to hedge against the current ETF inspired rally in Bitcoin without selling their Bitcoin a good candidate to 'short' would be MSTR (Microstrategy). The stock is "hard to borrow" meaning it is difficult to short the shares but the options chain is relatively liquid enough to accomplish the bearish thesis.
Technically, both Bitcoin and MSTR are hitting major Weekly Resistances today at the same time. Bitcoin is hitting its COVID low > ATH 50% Retracement level at 36439 while MSTR its November 2021 > May 2022 trend 50% Retracement at 512.73.
Expressing the trade with Puts is not only perhaps the only way for most traders to do so but also advantageous with the current Implied volatility being "low" relative to the last year. This means that if the trade goes in favor of the position IV should rise and add to the profitability.
MSTR
#Coin sub $100?Is Coinbase signalling further #Crypto weakness
Head & Shoulders
Currently in a bear diamond BOX , consolidating before further weakness?
We need monitor the equities that are directly exposed to the #crypto markets #Mara #Mstr and galaxy digital to give us clues to what insiders are doing and so called smart money.
MSTR Evening Star Poses Whipsaw Risk"Evening stars" are not as reliable as they used to be. They occur after heavy speculation and a steep angle of ascent. A few days ahead of earnings, NASDAQ:MSTR could not break through the resistance above.
The Gap up was HFT driven. This stock has a lot of retail interest at the moment, with every eye on AI. But the selloff from last quarter's reporting season is creating resistance on the daily scales. It is a very pricey stock for this market condition and the emotional state of most investors.
MSTR is likely to gap on earnings news as there are leaks out that it is going to be a blockbuster earnings report.
Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About MicroStrategy (MSTR)MicroStrategy currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.60, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by five brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.60 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
While the ABR calls for buying MicroStrategy, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near -term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
MSTR MicroStrategy Puts and the Cryptocurrency LandscapeIf you haven`t sold MSTR here:
Then you need to understand the recent crypto landscape:
Binance disputes the SEC's allegations of mishandling customer funds, deceiving investors, and violating securities laws.
The legal battle between Binance and the SEC has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community.
Binance and its affiliates assert that the SEC is overreaching its jurisdiction on digital assets, especially without any clear legislative guidance from Congress. The original lawsuit, filed in June, accused Binance of unlawfully listing unregistered securities.
Historically, the actions of whales have been instrumental in shaping the price movements of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Non-whale addresses, those holding less than 100 BTC, now account for over 41% of the total Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, whales, entities holding between 100 and 100,000 BTC, have witnessed a decline in their collective holdings to 55.5%, marking their lowest ownership level since May.
The decrease in whale holdings could signal a potential change in the market's dynamics, potentially leading to increased volatility and uncertainty.
These developments collectively cast a shadow over the cryptocurrency market's near-term prospects.
In this context, I`m considering the following puts for MSTR MicroStrategy:
2023-10-20 expiration date
$307.50 strike price
$12.60 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
MSTR next FTX bubble MicroStrategy owns 152,800 BTC bought for $4.53 billion.The company has $2.2 billion of debt issued by MicroStrategy, the parent company, consisting of $500 million of 6.125% senior secured notes due 2028 (the “secured notes”) and two series of convertible notes, one maturing in 2025 and the other in 2027 (together, the “convertible notes”). The secured notes are guaranteed by MicroStrategy’s subsidiaries (other than MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries) and are secured by substantially all of MicroStrategy’s assets, which include its software business and, as of Sept. 30, 2022, a total of 14,890 bitcoin.
Although MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries are technically restricted subsidiaries under MicroStrategy’s secured notes, in many ways they have the freedom of an unrestricted subsidiary, including their ability to incur debt secured by their bitcoin holdings.MacroStrategy is carved out from the limitations of the debt covenant, so it can incur unlimited debt. In addition, any crypto assets held by MacroStrategy at the time the secured notes were issued are carved out of the liens covenant; as a result, MacroStrategy may incur unlimited debt secured by the bitcoin that it held on the date the secured notes were issued.
The fact is that FTX and Alameda were created by one person - Sam Bankman-Freed. And from the very beginning, Alameda served as a liquidity provider on FTX. Alameda wallets interacted with FTX even before the launch in May 2019 and apart from other addresses, it was the only clearly identifiable counterparty. In 2020, the chief engineer of the FTX crypto exchange made secret changes to the exchange software. They allowed Alameda Research, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried, to continue to borrow funds from FTX regardless of the value of the collateral.
Weller said the prospect of such a fund coming to market after about a decade of trying by a number of issuers could pose a "big risk" for MicroStrategy.
“Many investors are buying MicroStrategy shares as a widely available proxy to gain exposure to bitcoin,” he said. “But if a simple, low-fee alternative emerges, much of the current demand for the stock could dry up, leaving a costly, slow-growing operating company to manage a cumbersome, unstable balance sheet.”
The Spot Bitcoin ETF, if approved, “won’t offer the same leverage returns as MicroStrategy,” Saylor said during the company’s Aug. 1 earnings announcement.
However, he acknowledged that a subset of institutional investors would choose Bitcoin ETFs to participate in this space.
I'll draw an analogy. Think of the rest yourself. The debtor company has doubled its capital. This is Carl's air, emptiness! Bitcoin-ETF no longer needs an intermediary in the form of this company, which can repeat the fate of FTX. Half of the Bitcoins will have to be sold on the market if the Bitcoin ETF spot is approved, because 2.2 billion debts and unlimited lending to yourself may end. Even now, investors will have a reason to doubt Michael Saylor and withdraw their funds, which will deprive the company of reliability. Will he repeat the fate of Sam? Time will show.
MicroStrategy Coiled: Are Bitcoin Bulls Ready for $35,000 in AugMicroStrategy Incorporated provides enterprise analytics software and services in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers MicroStrategy, an enterprise analytics software platform that enables users to create visualizations, customize apps, and embed analytics directly into workflows; and MicroStrategy Cloud Environment, a managed software-as-a-service solution, which offers always-on threat monitoring and enables rapid analytics development and deployment to deliver security and data privacy requirements. The company also provides MicroStrategy Support that helps customers to achieve their system availability
RIOT - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹POSITIVE signals inverse head and shoulders formation with resistance breakout at 14.72 and potential next resistance at 24.50.
🔹RSI curve shows rising trend to supporting POSTIIVE trend.
🔹RSI above 70 indicates strong short-term POSITIVE momentum.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Will $MSTR finally become a market leader?The leader of the industry right now is NASDAQ:MDB , but those not have any exposure to the #crypto market.
MicroStrategy provides enterprise-ready analytics, mobility and security software platforms for various industries.
Historically, NASDAQ:MSTR has outperformed AMEX:BITQ , I chose this ETF as a proxy of its peers as is better balanced than $AMEX:CRPT.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock its been in a bottoming process as the volatility continues to decline. And its relative strength line is in a trading range.
Recently, they announced a new multi-year partnership with NASDAQ:MSFT that will integrate MicroStrategy’s advanced analytics capabilities with Azure OpenAI Service.
Maybe this added to the volatlity contraction can help the price to breakout above $350 and start trending higher.
MSTR - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- MSTR shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- The stock has broken an inverse head and shoulders formation.
- A decisive break of the neckline at approximately 311 will signal a further rise to 660 or more.
- The stock is between support at 284 and resistance at 354.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
MSTR BULL RALLY AHEADFor more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
MSTR Long -Daily is Testing the Daily 20 and 50 ema area
-Daily is in a clear up trend making HH / HL
-MSTR is highly correlated with BTC and Crypto in general which is currently in an uptrend as well
-Entry came at the break of the 1h wedge
-The wedge pattern could also be taken as a flag which is a reversal pattern (in this case going long)
-MACD
-Price is testing a good support level which once was a major resistance level at 290
-Expiration for 5/19 looking to take this to the upside
MSTR D1 UPDATE ( TECHNICAL )For more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
$BTC $170K by Halloween 2023, believe it. If the same technicals of growth, volatility, and previous lows and highs math estimates are correct, then as strange as it may sound, Bitcoin is 23% likely to reach $170,000 by Oct 31st 2023.
Not to mention the fertile environment for Bitcoin given;
1. The recent turmoil in the regional banking world and the lack of trust of the banking system being reinforced.
2. The decline of BTC in 2022 was arguably related to the massive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and they (The FED) are now likely to stop raising rates due to #1.
3. The correlation btwn Gold and Bitcoin has re-emerged in recent weeks
The Melt Up Moonshot The melt up moonshot...
The market is incredible miss positioned for this bull run, this is actually worse then 2020 as Fund managers had an entire year of stacking short positions for the coming recession.
Things like ATH Credit Card Debt and FED rate hike BS was feed to the masses and they ate it up, meanwhile all of my businesses(and everyone I know who owns a business) have been making record month after record month revenues.
Yes CC debt is at an ATH and Yes people have pulled a record amount of equity out of their homes and guess where it landed? Not in Amazon junk, that was 2021. In 2022 in landed in our pockets, main street is booming!
Take a look at MMF's, where main street business owners hold their cash before they need it. Its at a record high.
Let me ask you something, you think its gonna stay in a MMF for .5% interest? Or will it go into the stock market and get a 2% a week return in the s&p 500? My guess, the stock market.....
My position:
MSTR
29 $900 Calls for 12/15
5 $350 Calls for 7/16 - These will be rolled at $600 to increase leverage for the big move higher.
Quick Bitcoin "Spot ETF" Comparison ($BTC.X $MSTR $GBTC $BITO)Still as expected. NASDAQ:MSTR is a bit of a leveraged play... $BITO (so far) is still working out as the most pure spot play... and $GBTC yeah... there's Grayscale always in the news with the 40-50% sale. LOL
Can you stomach the potential risk/reward of GBTC? Are we still using it as an informal technical indicator for coin movement?
In my opinion, BITO is probably the smart choice for tax advantaged IRAs etc.
Otherwise, just buy and hodl the actual coins in your cold wallet.
Will revisit down the road. Good luck!
Future of MSTRI've had a position in MSTR for a few months now and even though it's one of the worst companies in terms of stability and providing rising returns to investors, I think that it has strong potential for a large upswing.
With the price of Bitcoin recovering and 28.36% of it's shares being shorted, I think that a short squeeze is imminent. I would even see it becoming the next AMC or GME if people start mentioning the corporate stupidity of Michael Saylor. I think that it's the riskiest asset in my portfolio and I don't intend holding it for long, I'm currently targeting the 600$-700$ range which is very possible if Bitcoin claims back it's previous highs.
Finally, I don't think MSTR has much of a future, their entire existence is based on Bitcoin which at the moment isn't the most stable. To be totally honest, there are barely any fundamentals behind my position, just hopium.