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MSTR

MSTR hitting support but then further downside to fill the gap.Okay guys look at this beautiful chat. Here you are looking at MSTR on the Daily TF and you have a lot of stuff going on. Notice the wedge pattern that is forming from the down slopping (yellow) line and the parallel (green) support line. That is forcing action to the corner of the wedge. You will also notice that before the continued downward movement in the stock there was an attempted breakout (purple box). Now, this is where most investors would have jumped on board and though that this was a true break out, however there wasn't any confirmation. Without confirmation there isn't a true breakout. Also notice how the big gap up represented by the green line is now serving as a major support and goes back to 2020. This line has been tagged times now and is beginning to weaken. Once the green line is weakened enough it will break and head down to the gap fill (represented by the blue line) and you will see a bounce off of that level. We will continue to monitor the progress of this chart and see if there is enough bullish price action to get through the yellow resistance line or if the bears will win and fill that gap. Let me know what you think will happen. Cheers,
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by GarethSolowayOfficial
1
MicroStrategy Graph and Fundamental Analysis (MSTR)1. Graphic Analysis Since March 2020, the company has been showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin (as shown at the bottom). The price is "respecting" the white diagonal line in a big triangle 3 times. It remains to be seen whether this line will be restored or whether it will now take off for good. Perhaps the fundamentalist analysis below indicates a subtle change in operating results, to the point of enacting the bottom of this cycle. 2. Fundamental Analysis The result was announced on November 1st. 2.1. Income Statement 2.1.1. Revenues Sales increased by 2.69%, going from $122M to $125M. 2.1.2. Expenses Operating expenses have been flat since inception, ranging quarterly from $111 million to $122 million. 2.1.3. Net Income Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses. Since the year 2020, net income has had a negative performance. Despite sales increasing by 2.69%, this has not changed. The positive point is that in relation to the previous quarter, the negative profit deteriorated, going from -$ 1.06 Billion to -$ 27.08 M 2.1.4. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares. Analyzing since the 1st quarter of 2021, this indicator has remained negative, signaling that those who bought the company's shares suffered a loss, in line with Net Income . ------------------------------------------------------------ 2.2. Balance Sheet 2.2.1. Asset x Liability 2.2.2. Total Assets The total value of assets decreased by 2.13%, due to a reduction in current and non-current assets. 2.2.3. Total Debt Debts remain stable, in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.45 billion. 2.2.4. Net Debt Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets. This value also remains stable. 2.2.5. Net worth It is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets. Equity was positive until the first quarter of 2022. But in the last two quarters it was negative by -$200 million. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2.3. Cash flow 2.3.1. Cash From Operating Activities Cash From Operating Activities represents the amount of cash that a company gets from its ongoing, regular business activities, such as the production and sale of goods or the provision of services to its customers. Considering the period since 2021, Q2 2022 (the previous one) was the one in which there was a negative flow of -$18.37M. In the current quarter, positively, this negative flow has stopped, standing at $1.10 M. But still far from the last positive value of the first quarter of 2022 which was $ 46 M. 2.3.2. Cash From Investing Activities Cash From Investing Activities represents the amount of cash that a company brings in from its investing activities. It includes any cash inflows or outflows from the company's long-term investments. A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities. Spending on investments has been declining. From a peak of -$1B in Q1 2021, in the current quarter of 2022(3) the amount spent was -$6M. This signals a trend towards the end of investment activities. It may be due to the higher cost of money, and/or the lack of need for such an investment. 2.3.3. Cash From Financing Activities Cash From Financing Activities is the amount of cash that a company receives or pays to finance its activities. That is, the company invests this money in itself, specifically in the development of its business. A positive value may indicate an organization's intentions regarding expansion and growth. A negative value may be a sign of improvement in the company's liquidity if debts are paid off. A negative value can also provide information on the dividend policy of the organization. In the same way as investment activities, the value follows a downward trend, that is, the company continues to prioritize the consolidation of its activities, or prioritizing the settlement of its debts. 2.3.4. Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding expenses on assets. Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community. The current value remains positive at $769k, but far from the peak of $64M in Q1 2021. Last quarter the balance was negative at -$19M, so we could at least consider this reversal as something positive. 2.3.5. Price to cash flow Ratio It measures how much cash a company generates relative to its share price. Formula: Market Value/Cash Flow from main activities The indicator remains positive and peaked at 69.46 in this current quarter.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by andre_007
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
MSTR - Weak Reporting.Q3 EPS of -$0.96 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.02. Revenue of $126.36M (-1.3% Y/Y) beats by $0.56M. The CEO of MicroStrategy again said that the company is not selling and does not plan to sell BTC, it plans to buy BTC in the future: “We have not sold any Bitcoin to date. To reiterate our strategy, we seek to acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term. And we do not currently plan to engage in sales of Bitcoin. We have a long-term time horizon and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.” A spill is expected at least to the lower edge of the rand. Maybe, on the background of this event we will see Bitcoin at 15000. If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Take profits out in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Artem_Dishel
2
MicroStrategy MSTR #MSTR $MSTR Let's take a look at one of my favorite ways to trade bitcoin, especially one of my favorite ways to trade Bitcoin on leverage by using 1x margin somewhere as simple as robin hood. Bitcoin and MSTR are so heavily correlated these days that its rather straight forward of a play to trade MSTR as if it's your Bitcoin vessel. MSTR. is also in a great range to buy IMO. Especially if looking forward more than just the next few days/weeks. Its Highly likely you see MSTR run up into the $800-$1200 ranges over the next 12-36 months based on how and when BTC takes off.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by rarebreed29
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met. Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well: There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events. Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by IvanLabrie
2
💦 $MSTR filled (most of) the gaps [$BTC's time to get Bullish?]The power of gann fanns, fibs and gap analysis doesn't continues to impress me more and more everyday! Sure, one can't really know what the future holds, and this weekend and 2 next weeks leading into the Jacksonhole FED announcements might spill more blood in the streets, but in my best estimation, it's really time to start getting bullish again! The signs are there that the liquidity bubble is being filled, gap by gap. So if you're not accumulating at these levels, you're definitely making a mistake! What the video for more explanation of my thoughts on what we're seeing in the charts with technical analysis ... what follows is more of a soapbox brain dump than anything. As I predicted last week, we were in for either one of two clear scenarios. A) we fill the gaps up in the $300-350 range left behind in August. Or B) we fill the gaps down in the 200-250 range, which we were opened back in July. It was 50/50 which way we might go at my last estimation, and the market has decided to fill the punish the bull's this month a bit more, and keep the apparent bearing momentum driving home. We still DO HAVE ONE **nasty gap** remaining down in the 100-120 range too, which is a 50% drop from current levels! OMG! Painful to thunk... right? If these gaps do almost always get fill though... mustn't it be accepted and acted upon as fact? sometimes they're filled in a day, sometimes in a month, sometimes in a year. Sometimes in 10 or 20 years... only when we really have a serious depression on hands... eventually! Hard to say... And so maybe we've hit the bottom for now, maybe we're not. But the closer we get, the strong the gap's magnetic pull might be... so... either way, as $MSTR is getting it's ass handed to them now with all the bad news, Michael Saylor lawsuits and more... it feels like maybe we'll get through the $100 gap sooner than later... and $BTC holders will suffer as a result, unfortunately. But tis' life. ACCUMULATE ALL THE WAY DOWN! and BE CAREFUL WITH YOUR LEVERAGE! DCA in and take your profits along the way on the pumps. So where is the signal to get bullish in all this mess? Well. There's only ONE BEARISH GAP LEFT ON THE CHARTS. *Look* at all the gaps left now on the upside!. So we will see scenario B) play out, sooner than later. That's the reason to get bullish, ofc! Anyway, it's the reason I'm getting bullish... since I believe that all gaps will be filled (market makers... make the market, and will move it back to where they've left liquidity on the table...) and i'm accumulating! I'm betting on it that $300-350 get filled. Also that we will see $390, $490, and all the gaps back up to the tippy top around $1200 filled as well. Or is it just coincidence that Blackrock and other massive investment firms have been buying up $MSTR in massive quantities? Are they not just as likely pushing the price back down and scooping up our shares and FUDing us so we sell them ours? (I mean... don't you think!?). Look at the SEC filings; look how many companies now own more than 7% of the public float of $MSTR. Do you really think they're making a losing bet? I don't, they have deep pockets... very deep pockets. What feels like pain to us, is just stacking sats to them. The patient will win. And we all know there *is* a bright future for $BTC. Nothing, fundamentally, nothing has changed in that thesis.... at all. Sorry for such a crappy write up... but my day's coming to an end. Wanted to share my thoughts... hope they at least gave you something to think about, even if you disagree. :) Thanks for reading! Be safe out there!
FTX:CROUSDLong
by calmrat
📈 $DXY & $JPYX are on the rise [🔻$MSTR, $BTC, $EURX, $CNYU]We all know the drill, if $DXY is moving up, more speculative assets like $BTC and other #crypto #altcoins will trend down. Pressure is on as $DXY aims to reclaim the lost ground between 108/109 as the EU traders move to exit and US pre-market gets their ☕️'s brewing. If we push back through to 109 and past 109.5, I expect to add onto my short $CRO positions and sell more of my $MSTR when pre-market opens for the day. We've been rejected at a few too many key levels for my $LONG comfortzone this week. If, and only if we can recover 21500 $BTC and then 21800 BTC with strong volume, will i look at switch bullish and slowly accumulate LONG positions between 21400-21700 with a target of 22400 to exit. I'm targetting an initial 25% exit for my $CRO short position at .1233, with a reversal and initial 25% LONG position starting at .1205. We very very very well might go lower though, so my expectation is to keep my DCA range tight. The volatility is going to be insane going into the first 2 weeks of September! Gooooo #ETH (consensus layer merge!) If $DXY retraces during the US Brinks (pre-premarket) though, watch for the fakeout! THere's a lot of pressure building up (volume), the moves will likely be fast.
FTX:CROUSDShort
by calmrat
Distribution signals flash at EU Open [$CRO, $MSTR, $BTC]EU Open today bring more sideways action for us all. +-1-2% moves over night, nothing much, all things considering. The market has clearly tightened it's range for the past 2 days, anyway. Volatility is still expected, as we remain sandwhiched between two massive gappers on either side of $MSTR current levels in the $210-235 $300-325. $DXY continues to show strength, but given the double top, it's possible for a short-term reversal, if not a all out dump in September when the Jacksonhole rate hike announcements are made. Stay tuned! My custom Accumulation / Distribution scripts are warning that the market is likely over heated (on the 15m scale), which aligns with the fact that BTC also rejected it's approach to the golen pocket formed from the most recent dump. All this is to say, i'm still holding only my $CRO short position for the time being. Last night my take-profit limits only managed to cover 25% of my open position as I slept, when Asia brought us down into the .126 range before retracing back to current levels as EU opened. With only 4% gains at the moment, it's nothing to write home about, but i'll be looking for good opporutnities to accumulate more shorts, as my overall thesis remains about the same as it was yesterday. Lots of resistence around the .13 levels for $CRO. And lots of resistence for BTC at 21450-21500 (golden pocket). Same like 282-285 for $MSTR. Watch the $DXY! If it continues to rise quickly, expect asset prices to further collapse!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by calmrat
$MSTR / $BTC Price Divergence$MSTR / $BTC (and many alt's in the green still for the day) are clearly off track from their usual correlation in the past hour+ from US market open. $DXY's pullback should imply we'll see $BTC / $MSTR head higher, but right now, it's any one's guess. $BTCUSD is forming a prety nasty little M pattern on the 5m chart. New York is looking prehaps to bring the prices down and cash in on the bull's who were too ambitions getting in on this morning's positive opening momentum? I'm still holding my short position. My guess is we're simply hitting too much resistence still, and the accumulation trend continues...
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by calmrat
$MSTR Lines of Liquidity [$CRO short in action, $DXY pump]I'm still working out how trading view recording works, and it seems the upload failed, so i'm not sure exactly what will be connected to this post, but let's see.... $MSTR opened strong today on the back of a slightly higher $BTC since yesterday's US market close. My hypothesis remains that volatility will be the name of the game in the coming days, as we are sandwhiched between two pre-market gaps. One from last Thu-Fri session at 300-325, which was nearly 5%, and multiple smaller ones down near 210-230. The shorter term gaps are more likely to be filled in the coming hours/days than the longer term-ones which have already failed to fill. But they'll all be filled, which means we can expect a range of at least 210-300 or 30+% moves in the coming days/weeks while we wait for summer to end and the US FED to announce it's highly anticipated rate hikes - estimated to be between 50bp and 100bp, depending on the inflation CPI numbers and other factors. I'm active in a CRO trade, accumulating with anticipation for a move to the downside. I'm shorting through .125 - .129, with a stop loss set at .13. Looking to cover at ~.12 And I'm slowing distributing my open MSTR trade between 280-300. The $DXY continues to pump, while $BTC remains relatively flat, which in my book indicates a divergence worthy of our close attention and a surprise up someone's sleeve. Who's playing games out there, who is it, really!?
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by calmrat
$MSTR Level check MondayDaily range 265 - 283 End of month range 210 - 220 We've put another pre-market gapper into the books in today's opening session on US markets for Monday, opening -5% below friday's dismal close. WIthin the first 1h candle we've recovered most of the gap, and current 1h candle volume is higher than average, so demand is strong for the moment at these levels. The most recent gap between 300 and 325 is sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a highly contested area since the start of the month, where trading ranged from Aug 1-10. Everyone who went long in that zone, and everything above it once the market managed to flip it into support are now completely trapped. The gaps of mid to late July are calling from around 210 to 230, which lines up with the distribution fann I see in the chart, leading us down to exactly 210-230 range by the end of the month. This, unfortunately for the HODL'ers among us, is shaping up to be the most likely scenario.... Where are you at with $MSTR?
NASDAQ:MSTR
by calmrat
MicroStrategy still heading sub $100I still think we will se a last trip down in the $BTC price before heading for $30,000 per coin. No doubt that $MSTR is extremely sensitive to that PA. Which is also why this stock will become extremely valuable once $BTC travels to new ATHs. Not only does the company own a ton of coins, but they also have the #1 advocate and spokesperson for Bitcoin as their CEO. That's why I can easily see $MSTR outperform $BTC in this cycle. I've got a chunk of fiat side-lined for when we enter the drawn box. An area in which the stock has spend quite a lot of time in in the past.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by FourApplesADay
Does the Fed matter?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Markets are weighing a possible 75bps rates hike at today's FOMC meeting. Were the Fed to follow suit on traders' expectations, it would be the steepest tightening since 1994 Traders price 255bps rate hikes from the Fed in its five remaining meetings this year China's central bank refrained from cutting the interest rate to protect yuan from policy divergence with the U.S. Freeport LNG announced its Texas assets will remain offline until September, and recover to full operations only in early 2023. Freeport LNG represents 10% of European seaborne energy supplies Russia plans to reduce capacity of gas supply on Nord Stream pipeline by 40% The U.S. extended till December 5 (instead of June 24) the validity of the license "authorizing transactions related to energy" to Russian entities under sanctions Coinbase (COIN) will shed a fifth of its staff amidst the rout in blockchain assets. COIN shares are down 85% from IPO price tag PROFZERO'S TAKE While ProfOne ponders whether monetary policy is really the right place to look at to solve a crisis which is wholly industrial in nature, ProfZero keeps reminding that fixed income markets have taken for granted for too long the support from Central Banks. To see Italy now trying to roll over its debt without the safety net laid by the ECB will be a thing to behold - hopefully, only for positive reasons Russia pulling the plug on gas while the U.S. quietly offers the means to avoid a much-spooked default; the channels of diplomacy are apparently running on a real low profile - but with what endgame in mind? While speaking at the TechCrunch Sessions on June 15, Bill Gates characterized cryptocurrencies and NFTs as a market driven by sentiment. “As an asset class, it’s 100% based on the greater fool theory - that somebody’s going to pay more for it than I do”, he argued. Indeed, the faith of blockchain asset holders is being put to test - just as much as in March 2020 or in the ICO crash of 2017. Even through this, ProfZero sticks by its mantra: always look at the fundamentals. While hype has definitely played a role ever since the infancy of the blockchain industry, the merits of the technology are there to be seen - if in doubt, ask any trader how a transaction is processed, and how many operational risks are taken at each and every step. Also Mr. Gates' understanding of NFTs leaves ProfZero dubious: the market of fine arts has left dusty auction houses and brought artists closer to investors, while beyond that, tokenization is nothing but the zeitgeist of the post-consumeristic era. Is this a call to BTC to USD 1mln (like Microstrategy's Michael Saylor reiterated recently)? Absolutely not. It is a call - to stay focused on the only thing that matters - value PROFONE'S TAKE Markets are waiting for today's decision of Federal Reserve about the next step of its rates-rising campaign. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said the Fed could help restore market confidence if it raises rates by 75bps today and in July - yet he also advised that 100bps would be better. On a markedly wilder note, investment manager Jeffrey Gundlach urged the Fed to take rates to 3% in one go - today. Amidst such notorious opinions, ProfOne's question is - does the Fed really matter? Actual inflation is one of fundamentals (energy and food); in May the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted inflation to cool to 2.7% only in 2023, implying that by the end or 2022 we may expect the figure to settle hardly lower than 5%. As argued also by ProfZero, this crisis is different from 2008 or 2020 - it is a crisis of the very industrial system that has been working for the last 20 years. Certainly monetary policy can and is providing already its contribution. But finance can't magically restructure energy, food and technology supply chains built in decades. There was a time when Wall Street was thought to make money just by waving its magic wand; the Great Financial Crisis brought that sorcery show to an end. Hopefully, we won't repeat the same mistake again
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
$AMD $TSLA $MSTR $SPY I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMD 4H I AMD was rejected right near its downtrend on the daily. And we now have a bear flag formation on AMD. Support near $92 and $82 if the flag is broken. TSLA 4H I TSLA has been trending down on the hourly ever since the beginning of April. We have resistance near $710 and $725. Support near $625 if $685 doesn't hold. MSTR 2H I MSTR is breaking down from a current uptrend. We have resistance near $220 and support near $203 and $188. BTC is looking bearish over the weekend. SPY 1D I SPY macrotrend remains bearish as we have been unable to see a higher low so far. Expecting support near $380, if it doesn't hold we can see $355!
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by optionsswing