Will $MSTR finally become a market leader?The leader of the industry right now is NASDAQ:MDB , but those not have any exposure to the #crypto market.
MicroStrategy provides enterprise-ready analytics, mobility and security software platforms for various industries.
Historically, NASDAQ:MSTR has outperformed AMEX:BITQ , I chose this ETF as a proxy of its peers as is better balanced than $AMEX:CRPT.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock its been in a bottoming process as the volatility continues to decline. And its relative strength line is in a trading range.
Recently, they announced a new multi-year partnership with NASDAQ:MSFT that will integrate MicroStrategy’s advanced analytics capabilities with Azure OpenAI Service.
Maybe this added to the volatlity contraction can help the price to breakout above $350 and start trending higher.
MSTR
MSTR - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- MSTR shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- The stock has broken an inverse head and shoulders formation.
- A decisive break of the neckline at approximately 311 will signal a further rise to 660 or more.
- The stock is between support at 284 and resistance at 354.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
MSTR BULL RALLY AHEADFor more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
MSTR Long -Daily is Testing the Daily 20 and 50 ema area
-Daily is in a clear up trend making HH / HL
-MSTR is highly correlated with BTC and Crypto in general which is currently in an uptrend as well
-Entry came at the break of the 1h wedge
-The wedge pattern could also be taken as a flag which is a reversal pattern (in this case going long)
-MACD
-Price is testing a good support level which once was a major resistance level at 290
-Expiration for 5/19 looking to take this to the upside
MSTR D1 UPDATE ( TECHNICAL )For more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
$BTC $170K by Halloween 2023, believe it. If the same technicals of growth, volatility, and previous lows and highs math estimates are correct, then as strange as it may sound, Bitcoin is 23% likely to reach $170,000 by Oct 31st 2023.
Not to mention the fertile environment for Bitcoin given;
1. The recent turmoil in the regional banking world and the lack of trust of the banking system being reinforced.
2. The decline of BTC in 2022 was arguably related to the massive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and they (The FED) are now likely to stop raising rates due to #1.
3. The correlation btwn Gold and Bitcoin has re-emerged in recent weeks
The Melt Up Moonshot The melt up moonshot...
The market is incredible miss positioned for this bull run, this is actually worse then 2020 as Fund managers had an entire year of stacking short positions for the coming recession.
Things like ATH Credit Card Debt and FED rate hike BS was feed to the masses and they ate it up, meanwhile all of my businesses(and everyone I know who owns a business) have been making record month after record month revenues.
Yes CC debt is at an ATH and Yes people have pulled a record amount of equity out of their homes and guess where it landed? Not in Amazon junk, that was 2021. In 2022 in landed in our pockets, main street is booming!
Take a look at MMF's, where main street business owners hold their cash before they need it. Its at a record high.
Let me ask you something, you think its gonna stay in a MMF for .5% interest? Or will it go into the stock market and get a 2% a week return in the s&p 500? My guess, the stock market.....
My position:
MSTR
29 $900 Calls for 12/15
5 $350 Calls for 7/16 - These will be rolled at $600 to increase leverage for the big move higher.
Quick Bitcoin "Spot ETF" Comparison ($BTC.X $MSTR $GBTC $BITO)Still as expected. NASDAQ:MSTR is a bit of a leveraged play... $BITO (so far) is still working out as the most pure spot play... and $GBTC yeah... there's Grayscale always in the news with the 40-50% sale. LOL
Can you stomach the potential risk/reward of GBTC? Are we still using it as an informal technical indicator for coin movement?
In my opinion, BITO is probably the smart choice for tax advantaged IRAs etc.
Otherwise, just buy and hodl the actual coins in your cold wallet.
Will revisit down the road. Good luck!
Future of MSTRI've had a position in MSTR for a few months now and even though it's one of the worst companies in terms of stability and providing rising returns to investors, I think that it has strong potential for a large upswing.
With the price of Bitcoin recovering and 28.36% of it's shares being shorted, I think that a short squeeze is imminent. I would even see it becoming the next AMC or GME if people start mentioning the corporate stupidity of Michael Saylor. I think that it's the riskiest asset in my portfolio and I don't intend holding it for long, I'm currently targeting the 600$-700$ range which is very possible if Bitcoin claims back it's previous highs.
Finally, I don't think MSTR has much of a future, their entire existence is based on Bitcoin which at the moment isn't the most stable. To be totally honest, there are barely any fundamentals behind my position, just hopium.
NASDAQ BLOCKCHAIN ECONOMY INDEX🧾 Intro
The Nasdaq Blockchain Economy Index is designed to measure the returns of companies that are committing material resources to developing, researching, supporting, innovating or utilizing blockchain technology for their proprietary use or for use by others.
The Index began on December 1, 2017 at a base value of 1,000.00.
TOP 10 HOLDINGS and Index Weight
• As of June 30, 2021:
1. COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): 2.26
2. IBM (IBM): 1.87
3. ACCENTURE (ACN): 1.82
4. SILVERGATE CAPITAL (SI): 1.81
5. FUJITSU (6702): 1.80
6. OVERSTOCK.COM (OSTK): 1.79
7. MICROSTRATEGY (MSTR): 1.78
8. BAIDU (BIDU): 1.78
9. JD.COM (JD): 1.76
10. SQUARE (SQ): 1.73
---------------------
Total = 18.41
Source: indexes.nasdaqomx.com
📈 Graphic Analysis
I believe this week we will see the breakout of that orange diagonal line, peaking up to the 0.5 retracement at $1443.60.
MSTR hitting support but then further downside to fill the gap.Okay guys look at this beautiful chat.
Here you are looking at MSTR on the Daily TF and you have a lot of stuff going on.
Notice the wedge pattern that is forming from the down slopping (yellow) line and the parallel (green) support line. That is forcing action to the corner of the wedge.
You will also notice that before the continued downward movement in the stock there was an attempted breakout (purple box). Now, this is where most investors would have jumped on board and though that this was a true break out, however there wasn't any confirmation.
Without confirmation there isn't a true breakout.
Also notice how the big gap up represented by the green line is now serving as a major support and goes back to 2020. This line has been tagged times now and is beginning to weaken.
Once the green line is weakened enough it will break and head down to the gap fill (represented by the blue line) and you will see a bounce off of that level.
We will continue to monitor the progress of this chart and see if there is enough bullish price action to get through the yellow resistance line or if the bears will win and fill that gap.
Let me know what you think will happen.
Cheers,
MicroStrategy Graph and Fundamental Analysis (MSTR)1. Graphic Analysis
Since March 2020, the company has been showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin (as shown at the bottom).
The price is "respecting" the white diagonal line in a big triangle 3 times.
It remains to be seen whether this line will be restored or whether it will now take off for good.
Perhaps the fundamentalist analysis below indicates a subtle change in operating results, to the point of enacting the bottom of this cycle.
2. Fundamental Analysis
The result was announced on November 1st.
2.1. Income Statement
2.1.1. Revenues
Sales increased by 2.69%, going from $122M to $125M.
2.1.2. Expenses
Operating expenses have been flat since inception, ranging quarterly from $111 million to $122 million.
2.1.3. Net Income
Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses.
Since the year 2020, net income has had a negative performance.
Despite sales increasing by 2.69%, this has not changed.
The positive point is that in relation to the previous quarter, the negative profit deteriorated, going from -$ 1.06 Billion to -$ 27.08 M
2.1.4. Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares.
Analyzing since the 1st quarter of 2021, this indicator has remained negative, signaling that those who bought the company's shares suffered a loss, in line with Net Income .
------------------------------------------------------------
2.2. Balance Sheet
2.2.1. Asset x Liability
2.2.2. Total Assets
The total value of assets decreased by 2.13%, due to a reduction in current and non-current assets.
2.2.3. Total Debt
Debts remain stable, in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.45 billion.
2.2.4. Net Debt
Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets.
This value also remains stable.
2.2.5. Net worth
It is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets.
Equity was positive until the first quarter of 2022.
But in the last two quarters it was negative by -$200 million.
------------------------------------------------------------
2.3. Cash flow
2.3.1. Cash From Operating Activities
Cash From Operating Activities represents the amount of cash that a company gets from its ongoing, regular business activities, such as the production and sale of goods or the provision of services to its customers.
Considering the period since 2021, Q2 2022 (the previous one) was the one in which there was a negative flow of -$18.37M.
In the current quarter, positively, this negative flow has stopped, standing at $1.10 M.
But still far from the last positive value of the first quarter of 2022 which was $ 46 M.
2.3.2. Cash From Investing Activities
Cash From Investing Activities represents the amount of cash that a company brings in from its investing activities.
It includes any cash inflows or outflows from the company's long-term investments.
A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities.
Spending on investments has been declining.
From a peak of -$1B in Q1 2021, in the current quarter of 2022(3) the amount spent was -$6M.
This signals a trend towards the end of investment activities.
It may be due to the higher cost of money, and/or the lack of need for such an investment.
2.3.3. Cash From Financing Activities
Cash From Financing Activities is the amount of cash that a company receives or pays to finance its activities.
That is, the company invests this money in itself, specifically in the development of its business.
A positive value may indicate an organization's intentions regarding expansion and growth.
A negative value may be a sign of improvement in the company's liquidity if debts are paid off.
A negative value can also provide information on the dividend policy of the organization.
In the same way as investment activities, the value follows a downward trend, that is, the company continues to prioritize the consolidation of its activities, or prioritizing the settlement of its debts.
2.3.4. Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding expenses on assets.
Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community.
The current value remains positive at $769k, but far from the peak of $64M in Q1 2021.
Last quarter the balance was negative at -$19M, so we could at least consider this reversal as something positive.
2.3.5. Price to cash flow Ratio
It measures how much cash a company generates relative to its share price.
Formula:
Market Value/Cash Flow from main activities
The indicator remains positive and peaked at 69.46 in this current quarter.
MSTR: You're Not Surprised Are You?$MSTR Price action tells the story with no room for bias or subjectivity. And yes, the levels on the chart have been there for weeks; no real mystery. The #FTX debacle was merely the catalyst.
The fact that prices went from the upper RED level at ~287 and cut right through the lower RED level at 186 tells you a lot. There is likely a lot more damage to come.
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
MSTR - Weak Reporting.Q3 EPS of -$0.96 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.02.
Revenue of $126.36M (-1.3% Y/Y) beats by $0.56M.
The CEO of MicroStrategy again said that the company is not selling and does not plan to sell BTC, it plans to buy BTC in the future:
“We have not sold any Bitcoin to date. To reiterate our strategy, we seek to acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term. And we do not currently plan to engage in sales of Bitcoin. We have a long-term time horizon and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.”
A spill is expected at least to the lower edge of the rand. Maybe, on the background of this event we will see Bitcoin at 15000.
If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Take profits out in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
MicroStrategy MSTR #MSTR $MSTR Let's take a look at one of my favorite ways to trade bitcoin, especially one of my favorite ways to trade Bitcoin on leverage by using 1x margin somewhere as simple as robin hood.
Bitcoin and MSTR are so heavily correlated these days that its rather straight forward of a play to trade MSTR as if it's your Bitcoin vessel.
MSTR. is also in a great range to buy IMO. Especially if looking forward more than just the next few days/weeks.
Its Highly likely you see MSTR run up into the $800-$1200 ranges over the next 12-36 months based on how and when BTC takes off.
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well:
There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events.
Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
💦 $MSTR filled (most of) the gaps [$BTC's time to get Bullish?]The power of gann fanns, fibs and gap analysis doesn't continues to impress me more and more everyday! Sure, one can't really know what the future holds, and this weekend and 2 next weeks leading into the Jacksonhole FED announcements might spill more blood in the streets, but in my best estimation, it's really time to start getting bullish again! The signs are there that the liquidity bubble is being filled, gap by gap. So if you're not accumulating at these levels, you're definitely making a mistake! What the video for more explanation of my thoughts on what we're seeing in the charts with technical analysis ... what follows is more of a soapbox brain dump than anything.
As I predicted last week, we were in for either one of two clear scenarios.
A) we fill the gaps up in the $300-350 range left behind in August. Or B) we fill the gaps down in the 200-250 range, which we were opened back in July. It was 50/50 which way we might go at my last estimation, and the market has decided to fill the punish the bull's this month a bit more, and keep the apparent bearing momentum driving home.
We still DO HAVE ONE **nasty gap** remaining down in the 100-120 range too, which is a 50% drop from current levels! OMG! Painful to thunk... right? If these gaps do almost always get fill though... mustn't it be accepted and acted upon as fact? sometimes they're filled in a day, sometimes in a month, sometimes in a year. Sometimes in 10 or 20 years... only when we really have a serious depression on hands... eventually! Hard to say... And so maybe we've hit the bottom for now, maybe we're not. But the closer we get, the strong the gap's magnetic pull might be... so... either way, as $MSTR is getting it's ass handed to them now with all the bad news, Michael Saylor lawsuits and more... it feels like maybe we'll get through the $100 gap sooner than later... and $BTC holders will suffer as a result, unfortunately. But tis' life. ACCUMULATE ALL THE WAY DOWN! and BE CAREFUL WITH YOUR LEVERAGE! DCA in and take your profits along the way on the pumps.
So where is the signal to get bullish in all this mess? Well. There's only ONE BEARISH GAP LEFT ON THE CHARTS. *Look* at all the gaps left now on the upside!. So we will see scenario B) play out, sooner than later. That's the reason to get bullish, ofc!
Anyway, it's the reason I'm getting bullish... since I believe that all gaps will be filled (market makers... make the market, and will move it back to where they've left liquidity on the table...) and i'm accumulating! I'm betting on it that $300-350 get filled. Also that we will see $390, $490, and all the gaps back up to the tippy top around $1200 filled as well.
Or is it just coincidence that Blackrock and other massive investment firms have been buying up $MSTR in massive quantities? Are they not just as likely pushing the price back down and scooping up our shares and FUDing us so we sell them ours? (I mean... don't you think!?). Look at the SEC filings; look how many companies now own more than 7% of the public float of $MSTR. Do you really think they're making a losing bet? I don't, they have deep pockets... very deep pockets. What feels like pain to us, is just stacking sats to them. The patient will win. And we all know there *is* a bright future for $BTC. Nothing, fundamentally, nothing has changed in that thesis.... at all.
Sorry for such a crappy write up... but my day's coming to an end. Wanted to share my thoughts... hope they at least gave you something to think about, even if you disagree. :) Thanks for reading! Be safe out there!