MSTR Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-24MSTR Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-24)
Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
Grok/xAI Report
Technicals: Short-term and daily charts show bearish momentum but oversold conditions (5-min RSI ~22, price near lower Bollinger Band) hint at a bounce. Sentiment: Elevated VIX (22.29), negative Bitcoin-bet headlines, insider sell-offs; max pain at $400 may cap upside. Direction: Moderately Bearish with potential for a relief rally. Trade: Buy $370 call at $13.00, aiming for +25% ($16.25), stop at 20% loss ($10.40), 65% confidence.
Claude/Anthropic Report
Technicals: Deep bearish momentum below all EMAs; M5 RSI oversold, daily RSI near oversold. Sentiment: Rising VIX, mixed Bitcoin headlines, heavy put open interest at $350–$360. Direction: Moderately Bearish but conflicting bounce signals. Trade: No trade—confidence only 45%.
Llama/Meta Report
Technicals: Bearish trend on both timeframes; oversold M5 RSI. Sentiment: Elevated volatility; mixed news; max pain theory. Direction: Moderately Bearish. Trade: Buy $367.50 put (ask $12.30–bid $11.85), profit +20%, stop 50%, 70% confidence.
Gemini/Google Report
Technicals: Overwhelming bearish across EMAs, RSI, MACD, price breaks on high volume. Sentiment: VIX rising, negative news, skewed options flow. Direction: Strongly Bearish. Trade: Buy weekly $310 put (est. ask ~$0.70), target 100–200% gains, stop at $0.35, 65% confidence.
DeepSeek Report
Technicals: Bearish on both charts but oversold; mixed reversal vs. continuation signals. Sentiment: VIX up, mixed news, distant max pain. Direction: Neutral/Unclear. Trade: No trade—confidence 55%. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
Agreement
Broadly bearish technical setup: price under EMAs, negative MACD, RSI oversold short term. Elevated volatility (VIX ~22) supporting larger swings. Weekly expiry options, with traders positioned for downside (heavy put OI).
Disagreement
Trade bias: Grok favors a call bounce; Llama and Gemini prefer deep-OTM puts; Claude and DeepSeek opt out. Strike choice: Ranges from near-the-money calls ($370) to far-OTM puts ($310). Confidence thresholds and risk/reward preferences differ, leading to divergent trade/no-trade conclusions. Conclusion and Recommendation
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Bearish (various intensities from moderate to strong).
Recommended Trade: Buy a naked weekly put.
• Strike Selection: $355 put offers a balance of liquidity (OI 2,042), premium ($7.45 ask), and proximity to current price (downside leverage without needing an extreme move). • Expiry: 2025-05-30 weekly. • Premium: $7.45 (within or near preferred risk range). • Entry Timing: At market open. • Profit Target: +25% (~$9.31). • Stop Loss: –20% (~$5.96). • Position Size: 1 contract. • Confidence Level: 65%.
Key Risks and Considerations
A short-term bounce could spike implied vol and lift call skew, hurting put value. Support at $362 may hold, capping downside. Elevated volatility could widen spreads; ensure limit orders. Maintain strict stop-loss to prevent outsized premium decay losses.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "MSTR", "direction": "put", "strike": 355.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 9.31, "stop_loss": 5.96, "size": 1, "entry_price": 7.45, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 09:30:00 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: MSTR 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 355.00 💵 Entry Price: 7.45 🎯 Profit Target: 9.31 🛑 Stop Loss: 5.96 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-24 14:57:32 EDT
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Mstrshort
MSTR - Short again with two profit targetsP4 was a rejection at the Center-Line, the perfect short. To me the current situation commands me to add to this short.
BTC is weaker and in a scary spot. MSTR also weaker and on the way to the PTG1. This time, the add to my short is not a technical signal, but a gut feeling and a combination of the current world situation.
And hey, I maybe get slapped because I FOMO into this. But that's OK. Sometimes I need a little bit more Fun in the Game. I do such unintelligent trading when the overall performance allow me to.
Let's go Captain Ahab!!!
MicroStrategy’s Make or Break MomentThe chart shows a breakdown from a descending wedge pattern, followed by a retest of the broken support turned resistance. A short position has been placed, anticipating further downside. The price is currently testing the retest zone, and rejection from this level could confirm continuation to the downside.
The stop-loss is strategically placed above 455.10, beyond a key resistance level, to minimize risk in case of a failed breakdown. The take-profit target is set near 224.56, aligning with a significant demand zone. The current price of 335.94 indicates minor volatility, but the structure suggests a potential bearish continuation if the price fails to reclaim the resistance zone.
If the breakdown holds, the next move could accelerate towards lower levels, making this a crucial moment for price confirmation. A reclaim of the resistance zone could invalidate the setup and trigger a short squeeze. The market’s reaction at this level will determine the next directional move.
MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position.
The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline.
For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position.
I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits.
That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger.
If there’s strength, I’ll close it.
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day.
What a blast! §8-)
I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM.
Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more).
So, what do we have here?
MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up.
Then came the decisive breakdown.
An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south.
Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks.
But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south.
For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence.
Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position.
Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking?
There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances.
Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-)
Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray.
But hey, who am I to judge?
MSTR SHORT until 0.0001