With Bullish bias into new Week - 2025/05/26Last week, I published my idea for a whole week with daily updates for the first time. You can read about it here:
🎯 The target of $3348 was reached on Friday due to the announcement of new tariffs against the European Union.
💡 Here is my idea for the week from May 26-30, 2025.
First things first, the Friday session last week ended with bullish momentum. Even though the gold price consolidated more at the $3366 mark, it was obviously to allow time to pass and calm down stressed values like EMA or MACD. This is a very good sign for the start of the week because if the Asia timezone takes the invite, the gold price has a good chance to rise. My expectation is a bullish GAP right at the beginning; if so, it's a clear sign for the rest of the day, in my opinion. These thoughts would support my goal from above $3500 during the week.
📰 Geopolitical News Landscape
India / Pakistan
The ceasefire from May 10 remains tense but intact. Both sides claim victory, while Pakistan strengthens ties with China. Cross-border attacks have ceased, but mutual distrust persists.
➡️ Situation remains fragile; renewed escalation is possible.
Gaza Conflict
Israel intensifies "Gideon’s Chariot" with ground forces in Khan Younis. Mass evacuations and high civilian casualties worsen the humanitarian crisis. Peace talks have stalled as the offensive continues.
➡️ No relief in sight; humanitarian conditions are deteriorating further.
Russia / Ukraine
On May 24, Russia launched its largest air assault yet with 367 missiles and drones—13 civilians were killed. Just before, both sides exchanged 1,000 prisoners. Peace talks remain suspended.
➡️ Violence is escalating; a ceasefire remains out of reach.
U.S.–China Trade War
The 90-day tariff pause triggered a rush to import from China. Shipping bottlenecks and high freight rates are straining businesses. Structural issues remain unresolved.
➡️ Short-term easing; long-term tensions persist.
Trade War on global view
The global trade war has escalated in May 2025, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports and a 25% levy on foreign-made smartphones, citing trade imbalances. The EU has condemned these moves, warning of potential retaliation. In response to U.S. tariffs, China has restricted rare earth exports, impacting global supply chains. ASEAN nations, heavily affected by U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%, are urging deeper regional integration to mitigate economic disruptions. The IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2025, citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Supply chains are being restructured, with companies shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Financial markets are volatile, with increased inflationary pressures and investor anxiety.
➡️ Emerging markets face currency volatility and economic instability due to the ongoing trade conflicts.
⚖️Trump vs. Powell
President Trump increases pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates. The Fed holds interest rates at 4.25–4.5% and warns of inflation. A 10% staff reduction is planned to boost efficiency.
➡️Political interference is increasingly destabilizing markets.
U.S. Inflation – April 2025
Inflation dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. However, consumer inflation expectations remain high at 7.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8—a historic low.
➡️A clear gap is emerging between official data and public perception.
🔋 Technical Analysis – Short-Term
📊 Analysis: May 19–24, 2025
Weekly Low: $3,204 (May 20)
Weekly High: $3,366 (May 23)
Weekly Close (May 23): approx. $3,358
Total Gain: +5%
🟢 Trend: A clear uptrend is evident. After hitting a low of $3,204 on May 20, gold experienced a strong rally, forming consistently higher highs and higher lows. A brief pullback on May 22 was quickly bought up.
📈 Structure: A series of bullish flag patterns developed, each resolving to the upside. The high at $3,366 currently marks the most significant resistance level.
🔮 Outlook from May 26, 2025
Resistance: $3,366 (recent high)
Support: $3,310 (last local low), below that $3,280 (breakout zone)
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above $3,310
📌 Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout: A sustained breakout above $3,366 could unlock further upside potential toward the $3,390–$3,410 area. When Asia session starting with bull GAP the Scenario is the one i preffer.
📌 Scenario 2 – Pullback: A retracement to the $3,310–$3,280 zone would be a healthy correction within the trend, provided this zone holds.
🧭 Conclusion:
Gold remains in a steady uptrend. As long as support levels hold, a continuation toward $3,500 is likely. RSI may be overbought on higher timeframes, so short-term consolidations are possible, but structurally the setup remains bullish.
Anything to ad? Feel free to tell your thoughts.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
BTC Roadmap Still Intact Bullish Momentum Building Toward 120KBitcoin Price action continues to validate the bullish roadmap shared in our last BTC post. The market respected the Immediate Buy Back Zone, springing from a demand backed structure into a fresh impulsive leg.
Notably, price has carved a clean 5-wave structure supported by recurring bullish pennants and continuation patterns each breakout driving momentum higher. Our target at 120,151 remains firmly intact, with price action showing healthy structure and controlled pullbacks.
The current setup remains valid as long as price holds above 106,655 and especially 100,941, which now act as structural pivot zones. Any deeper correction into the Demand Area would only serve as a re-accumulation window before the next leg.
Let’s see how price behaves into June. Momentum is aligning with structure.
Share your thoughts, like the post, and drop your setup confirmations on the comment section.
Algorand to $1Pattern Overview
A textbook bull flag formation has materialised and appears to be have confirmed support on past resistance. The pattern shows the classic characteristics of a strong impulse move followed by a controlled consolidation phase.
Key Technical Elements
Flag Formation Structure:
Initial strong bullish impulse creating the "flagpole"
Orderly consolidation within a defined channel (the "flag")
Decreasing volume during consolidation phase
Recent breakout above flag resistance with volume confirmation
Moving Average Support: Price action has found support at both the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages.
Recent price action bouncing cleanly off these dynamic support levels
RSI Confirmation: RSI showing healthy momentum without being overbought
The oscillator pattern mirrors the flag consolidation, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than distribution
Technical Outlook
Bull flags are typically measured by adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout point. . The next impulsive wave forecasts price action to $1
Risk Management
While the technical setup appears strong, proper risk management remains essential. A break back into the flag structure, especially below the moving average support zone, would warrant reassessment of the bullish thesis.
Ww
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This analysis is for educational purposes and represents technical observations based on price action and indicators shown on the 2-day timeframe.
Why I Think USDJPY Will Sell...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
Happy Tuesday! I wanted to share my USDJPY analysis and why I think it will sell. This is only a technical analysis so please check the news and cross-reference your own charts. Here is what I am looking at:
- Momentum is picking up for the sellers with red candles forming on H4, H1 and M15.
- The stoch is facing down, both lines have crossed below 80, slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) which is a bearish confirmation for me.
Additional information:
- I will also wait to see if both lines of the stoch cross below 50 to confirm the down trend.
- I will be setting sell stops and using previous highs as my SL and previous lows as my TPs.
Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know how it goes.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Why I Think Gold May Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I think Gold will continue to buy today and potentially for the rest of the week. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference the indicators on your chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market has been pushing up since it hit a swing low at 3285
- Bullish candles are picking up momentum with Bullish engulfing on H1. This is a bullish confirmation for me
- The STOCHASTIC is facing up, the orange line (slow) is below the blue line (fast), both have crossed above 50%.
These are all bullish confirmations for me. I will setting buy stops as marked on my chart. I will set my SL at the previous low and use previous highs as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know how it goes in the comments below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Cummins India Limited – Strong Fundamentals Powering the FutureCummins India Limited, a subsidiary of Cummins Inc. (USA), is a dominant player in the Indian power solutions market. It operates across three core segments: Power Systems (generators, alternators), Industrial Engines (used in construction, mining, and marine applications), and Distribution (aftermarket services). The company benefits directly from India's infrastructure growth, export opportunities, and the transition to energy-efficient technologies.
🔍 Fundamental Highlights
For FY24, Cummins India reported revenue of ₹8,173 Cr with an EBITDA of ₹1,689 Cr, translating into an EBITDA margin of 20.7%. Net profit stood at ₹1,248 Cr, giving a net margin of 15.3%. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of ₹45.6.
It remains financially strong with a return on equity (ROE) of 24.5%, return on capital employed (ROCE) at 30.2%, and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.01, making it virtually debt-free. The current ratio is 2.4, showing strong liquidity, and the inventory turnover ratio is 7.1, reflecting efficient operations.
Despite premium valuations – the stock trades at a P/E of around 69.9x and a P/B of 16.4x – investors remain bullish due to its brand strength, consistent dividends (yielding about 1.3%), and a cash reserve exceeding ₹3,000 Cr.
📉 Technical View – Breakout Confirmed
On 29th May, Cummins India broke out of a long-standing weekly contraction range. The breakout was backed by a volume spike of 2.86 million shares, which is significantly above the 30-day average volume of 614.92K – a nearly 5x surge, often indicative of institutional accumulation.
Momentum is firmly in play with the RSI at 68 on the daily timeframe, holding above the key 60 level— a bullish momentum zone suggesting further upside potential.
🔍 Key Levels
Reversal Zone: ₹2,850 – ₹2,975
Resistance 1: ₹3,285
Resistance 2: ₹3,642
Resistance 3: ₹4,000
Conclusion:
Cummins India shows strong breakout backed by fundamentals and volume. Watch for momentum above ₹3,285 or dips near ₹2,975 for potential entries.
GBPAUD: Short From Resistance 🇬🇧🇦🇺
GBPAUD may retrace from a key daily horizontal resistance.
As a confirmation, I see a double top pattern formation
on that on a 4H time frame and a breakout of its neckline.
I expect a bearish move to 1.0858
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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USDCAD: Strong Bearish Confirmation ?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
I see an important sign of strength of the sellers on USDCAD
on an hourly time frame after a release of the today's US fundamentals.
The price violated a support line of a horizontal range and is retesting
that at the moment.
I believe that the price may drop at least to1.374 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Skeptic | USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Fuels Short Setups!Hey everyone, Skeptic here! I know some of you might’ve missed our last USD/CHF short signal that hit a sweet 3:1 R/R—no worries! 😊 The market’s always here, so missing a trade isn’t the end of the world. I’m not here to push FOMO; my goal is to take you on a long-term trading journey, and I’m stoked to have you along for the ride! :))) Let’s get back to USD/JPY and break down the latest action. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
First, let’s zoom out and talk about the DXY (US Dollar Index), which recently broke the 99.005 support and turned bearish. This puts USD-based pairs like USD/JPY in the spotlight for short opportunities this week. Here’s what’s happening with USD/JPY:
Trend Context: The major trend is bearish. Last week, sellers showed no mercy to buyers, and with DXY’s bearish move, we’re likely to see more of the same this week.
Key Level: We’re currently reacting to a major daily support at 142.305. Expect a range or reaction here, so we must wait for confirmation before shorting.
Recent Correction: The prior correction reached the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement and seems to have resumed the major bearish trend.
With this in mind, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short setups.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
The 4-hour chart is giving us some clear signals to work with. Here’s the plan:
Short Setup:
Key Level: The 142.338 level is critical, as it formed a ceiling at 148.569 in the past and acted as support before.
Trigger: If we form a lower high and then break below 142.305, open a short position.
Confirmation: Use RSI to back up the breakout, ensuring momentum aligns.
Why It Works: A lower high signals increasing weakness in this support, making a break more likely.
Long Setup:
My Take: I personally don’t have a long trigger right now. Both the major and minor trends are downtrends, so going long doesn’t make sense in these conditions.
If You Insist: If you’re set on a long, wait for a break above 144.125. But keep it tight—low risk, small stop loss, and take profits quickly once you hit a decent R/R.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it really helps! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to dive into next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll tackle it. Thanks for joining me—see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
Skeptic | SPX 500 Update: Bullish Breakout Brewing?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on the SPX 500 , but the market’s now flashing a killer long opportunity with a high R/R—don’t miss this one! 😊 Stay with me to the end for the full breakdown. Let’s dive into the Daily Timeframe to set the stage. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
The SPX 500 pulled off a deep correction , dropping from a high of 6154.64 to lows around 4810.39 with some wild shadows that caught everyone off guard. But now, it’s firing up with fresh momentum, carving out higher highs and higher lows that scream bullish strength. The corrections in this new uptrend are super shallow and flow with the trend—exactly what we want to see! After hitting resistance at 5961.82 , we’ve had a slight pullback, but it looks like this correction is wrapping up, and we’re on the verge of the next big uptrend leg. Let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
On the 4-hour chart, the correction shaped up as a descending trendline . We broke it, pulled back, and now we’re primed to crack 5895.39. A breakout above this level is our main long trigger. To get more precise, let’s check the 1-Hour Timeframe.
For the long setup , a clean break above 5896.34 gets us in the game. This move also busts through P.P. Level 1, giving us solid confirmation, and we could ride the wave up to P.P. Levels 3 or 4, targeting 5930.83 to 5956.97 . Those are prime spots to lock in some profits, but don’t close the whole position—since we’re trading with the trend, we can hold for more upside. For shorts, I’ve got nothing. Going against this bullish momentum would be pure madness! I’d wait for a sharp drop below support at 5849.67 before even considering short triggers, but right now, there’s zilch.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this update sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for hanging out— let’s grow together and remember: Weathermen forecast. We trade! :))) ✌️