Gold (XAUUSD) – July 1 Analysis📍 H4 Key LH Zone: 3348.500 – 3350.500
This is a major decision zone.
Current market structure:
🔸 M15 is in an uptrend with confirmed ChoCh + BoS
What to watch:
We’re approaching the H4 LH supply zone — now we observe how price behaves here.
🔹 If price breaks above this H4 LH zone:
→ HTF and LTF trends align to the upside
→ Potential continuation of the bullish move
🔹 If price respects and stays below this LH zone:
→ Then this recent up-move could be a pullback
→ We may see a new low forming — so be cautious
📍 M15 Zones for Long Setup (if confirmed):
• 3309.500 – 3312.500 (Order Block Zone)
• 3302.500 – 3304.600 (Demand Zone)
We will watch these levels closely.
If price respects these zones and gives M1 confirmation (ChoCh + BoS) — we’ll plan for long entries accordingly.
📖 Let structure guide your decisions. Let price speak first.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Author of The Chart Is The Mirror — a structure-first, mindset-grounded book for traders
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) 4H Technical Outlook
In line with my previous projection, price dropped from the 3330 region toward the key level around 3224, bottoming out at 3245 after sweeping liquidity—forming what now appears to be a potential double bottom.
However, the rally from 3245 looks more like a liquidity build-up than a true reversal. This suspicion is strengthened by Silver’s behavior, as it failed to confirm any bullish structure shift last week and isn’t participating in the rally as expected.
Currently, Silver is trading back into a premium zone around 36.27. With that in view, it would be ideal for Gold to revisit the 3322 region, offering a cleaner and more logical sell opportunity with defined risk. That said, overnight volatility during the Asian session could still lead to unexpected movements and early reversals.
USDJPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 145.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
H4 Head and Shoulder Pattern, Retest of the neckline
Levels 3.56
Entry 95%
DUE TO H4 I WILL BE GOING 1/2 A % RISK TO SEE IF MY EDGE WILL WORK
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
NZDCAD LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DW
Entry at Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.82500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 4.08
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
COST Daily Chart Analysis: Key Levels, and Price StructureCostco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Historical Context and Trend Channel:
From September 2024 through early 2025, COST was observed trading within a well-defined upward channel (indicated by the grey shaded areas). This channel represented a consistent bullish trend during that period. However, the price subsequently broke below the lower boundary of this channel around March 2025, suggesting a shift in the established trend.
Key Price Levels Identified:
Strong Support Level (870 to 880): Marked by the light blue shaded zone, this level has historically acted as a robust floor for the price, demonstrating strong buying interest on multiple occasions.
Good Level (930 to 940): The orange shaded area indicates an intermediate support zone. Should the immediate support fail, this level could come into play as the next area of interest for potential buyers.
1st Support (970 to 980): This green shaded area represents the most immediate support level based on recent price action. The price has recently found support within this range.
Key Resistance (1010): The horizontal red line with circled points highlights a critical overhead resistance level. This level has seen prior rejections, making it a significant hurdle for any sustained upward movement. It also appears to act as a potential "neckline" for current price formations.
Target (1060 to 1070): The red shaded zone at the top represents a significant resistance area and a prior peak. If the "Key Resistance -1010" is overcome, this zone could become the next potential target.
Recent Price Action and Pattern Observations:
Following the break from the long-term uptrend channel, COST rallied to form a peak around the "Target 1060 to 1070" zone in May. The subsequent decline from this peak, followed by a bounce and another attempt at the "Key Resistance -1010" level, suggests the formation of a potential "M" top or double top pattern if 1010 holds. More recently, the price has pulled back to test the "1st Support 970 to 980" zone. The current price action around 988.07 indicates that COST is trading between this immediate support and the "Key Resistance -1010" level. The chart illustrates two potential paths (dotted blue lines):
1. A move upward, challenging and potentially breaking above the "Key Resistance -1010" to target the 1060-1070 zone. This would align with a potential bullish "W" pattern formation if the 1st support holds.
2. A decline to retest the "Good Level 930 to 940" before a potential rebound.
The "Key Resistance -1010" level remains pivotal. A sustained break above it could signal further upside, while rejection from this level could lead to a retest of lower support zones.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
MSTR Daily Chart Analysis: Key Price LevelsThis analysis focuses on the daily chart of MicroStrategy (MSTR), highlighting significant price action, identified patterns, and predefined support and resistance levels.
Price Action Overview:
Starting from late 2024/early 2025, MSTR experienced a notable downtrend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, leading to a test of the "Strong Support" zone, illustrated by the grey shaded area around the 230-240 price level.
Following this decline, the chart illustrates a distinct "W" pattern formation, often interpreted as a potential bullish reversal signal. This pattern culminated in a decisive breakout above the overhead descending trendline (marked in red), indicating a shift in market structure from downtrend to a more bullish posture.
Post-breakout, the price saw a strong upward move into May. A subsequent pullback found significant support within the "Key Support 360 to 370" zone, which appears to have acted as a crucial pivot point, preventing further decline. More recently, the price has consolidated and is current
ly trading above the "1st Support 390 to 400" area.
Key Levels Identified:
Key Resistance / Target Level (435 to 450): The red shaded area at the top represents a significant overhead resistance zone. This level aligns with a previous peak and is identified as a potential target if the current upward momentum continues.
1st Support (390 to 400): This green shaded area serves as the immediate support level. The price has recently traded above this zone, suggesting it has transitioned into a new support area after potentially acting as resistance previously. Sustaining price action above this level would be a key observation.
Key Support (360 to 370): Located below the first support, this green zone has demonstrated its importance in recent price action, coinciding with the lows seen in June, where buyers stepped in.
Feb 50% Retracement & Flip Zone (330 to 340): This lower green shaded area represents a significant structural level, identified as a potential 50% Fibonacci retracement level from a previous move and a historical "flip zone" where price action shifted between support and resistance.
Strong Support (approx. 230-240): The grey shaded box at the bottom indicates a strong historical support level, representing the lowest point observed within this timeframe, acting as a critical long-term floor.
Current Observations:
The current price of 405.09 indicates MSTR is trading above its immediate "1st Support 390 to 400" zone. The dotted blue line on the chart illustrates a hypothetical continuation of the current upward momentum, projecting a potential move towards the "Key Resistance / Target Level 435 to 450."
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Preponderance of (or Preposterous?) Evidence
I was just proposing yesterday staying neutral in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF). The FOMC meeting today (Jun 18th) was a big-nothing burger (so far), which supports my (non)position, but we'll see. I will update that post when the time is right (ATH, 200dma, or bust).
Today, though, the IWM (the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF) and, surprisingly, a potential short position.
First, the IWM (see below) is overbought on a weekly chart, with the Stochastics being above 80 (more on Stochastics and weekly charts at a later date). For now, let's go with IWM being a little overbought, in the longer-term view.
Now, let's switch to the big daily chart at the top and look at the evidence for going short;
- IWM never really got above it's 200-day moving average (purple line),
- That same level was consistent with a lot of resistance ~213 (yellow circles),
- IWM has trailed this whole rally.
- It has broken and somewhat retested a trendline (light blue) from this most recent rally,
- It bounced off it's 61.8% Fibonacci level (orange line, not my favorite indicator for ETFs, but I often sneak a peek),
- It's at its previous resistance high around 209 (blue circles).
On the not-bearish side;
- The daily chart is less overbought (this has to happen on weakness, though),
- There's (a little) support at 199 but not really again until 172,
- I still feel like the All-Time-High (ATH) is a magnet for the S&P (but IWM has trailed).
That's (a lot) more (and better) points for being bearish.
I'll go short (via a ~90 day ITM put position*) if IWM breaks below 207.50, between that and 202. If it opens lower than 202, I'll wait for a pull-up.
The stop will be a close above the 200 day.
The target is 172 (the previous tariff low), but I will lighten/tighten up (by selling OTM puts* and/or moving stop down) as IWM drops (if it drops).
It may seem a bit duplicitous to be neutral on SPY while being bearish on IWM.
But sometimes you have to go with the Preponderance of Evidence (or will it prove Preposterous Evidence?)
An update will be coming.
*Sorry for bringing up options. One can just go short IWM. I will explain my option choice one day.
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
EURUSDHello, I hope you have a good day ❤
Please don't forget to support us so that our activities can continue!🚀
The trend of the above times is completely upward and this move is not far from expected.
But since it is the first week of the new month, be sure to observe capital management.
Be profitable💲💎
Skeptic| Cycle Mastery Part 1: HWC, MWC, LWC for Smarter TradingUnderstanding Higher Wave Cycle ( HWC ), Minor Wave Cycle ( MWC ), and Low Wave Cycle ( LWC ) is the key to making informed trading decisions, simplifying when to go long , short , or stay out . This Part 1 masterclass introduces these cycles, their relative nature, and how to align them with your strategy for precise entries and effective risk management . Let’s break it down. 📊
The Three Cycles: HWC, MWC, LWC
We trade across three market cycles:
HWC (Higher Wave Cycle) : The big-picture trend, like Bitcoin’s yearly uptrend.
MWC (Minor Wave Cycle): A medium-term trend, often an uptrend or corrective phase within the HWC.
LWC (Low Wave Cycle): The short-term daily trend, which can be range-bound, uptrend, or downtrend.
Knowing these cycles helps you decide when to e nter long, short, or avoid trading altogether, ensuring you align with the market’s rhythm.
Defining Your Cycles: It’s Relative
The main question before diving in: What timeframes are HWC, MWC, and LWC? The answer is relative—it depends on your strategy. Think of it like a temperature scale: 0°C isn’t “no heat” but a reference point (water’s freezing point). Similarly, your cycles are defined by the largest timeframe you analyze:
HWC: Your highest timeframe (e.g., Weekly for long-term traders).
MWC: The next level down (e.g., Daily).
LWC: Your shortest timeframe (e.g., 4-Hour or 1-Hour).
Ask yourself: What’s the largest timeframe I check? Set your HWC there, then scale down for MWC and LWC based on your trading style. This relativity ensures your cycles fit your unique approach.
While shorter cycles (LWC, MWC) form the HWC, the HWC’s power dominates, influencing smaller cycles. Let’s explore how to trade based on these relationships.
Trading Scenarios: When to Act
Scenario 1: HWC Uptrend, MWC Range
When the HWC is in an uptrend and the MWC is range-bound:
Action: Enter a long position on the first MWC wave when the LWC breaks the ceiling of the MWC range (e.g., a box breakout).
Why? The HWC’s bullish power supports the move, likely triggering an MWC uptrend. This makes the first wave a strong, low-risk entry.
Example: If the LWC (e.g., 4-hour) breaks the MWC range ceiling with a strong candle, you can confidently go long, backed by the HWC uptrend.
Scenario 2: HWC Downtrend, MWC Range
When the HWC is in a downtrend and the MWC is range-bound:
Action: Skip the first MWC wave. If the LWC breaks the MWC range ceiling, avoid going long—the bearish HWC could reject the move, resuming its downtrend.
Wait for the Second Wave: Let the MWC return to a range after the first wave. If the LWC breaks the range ceiling again, go long with confidence—the HWC’s influence is less likely to disrupt this second wave.
Risk Management Tips (if you trade the first wave against the HWC):
Reduce Risk: Lower your position size to minimize exposure.
Take Profits Early: Close the position or secure most profits (e.g., scale out) once you hit your R/R target, as volatility is high.
Wider Stop-Loss: Set a larger stop-loss to account for potential HWC-driven reversals, as stop-loss hunts are common in this scenario.
Adjusting Stop-Loss Size Based on Cycles
Aligned Cycles (HWC, MWC, LWC in Same Direction): When all three cycles align (e.g., all uptrend), set a tighter stop-loss relative to market conditions. Gradually scale out profits instead of closing the position, as the trend’s strength supports higher R/R (e.g., 5 or 10).
HWC Against MWC/LWC: If the HWC opposes the other cycles (e.g., HWC downtrend, MWC/LWC uptrend), use a wider stop-loss. The HWC’s power could reverse the LWC, lowering your win rate if stops are too tight. Expect volatility and plan accordingly.
Final Vibe Check
This Cycle Mastery Part 1 equips you to time MWC waves with precision, aligning HWC, MWC, and LWC for smarter entries. By mastering when to trade the first or second wave, you’ll avoid traps and maximize your edge. Part 2 will dive deeper with examples—stay tuned! At Skeptic Lab, we trade with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. Protect your capital—stick to 1%–2% risk per trade. Want Part 2 or another topic? Drop it in the comments! If this guide sharpened your game, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️
💬 Let’s Talk!
How will you time your MWC waves? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
EU trade breakdown 24th June 2x entryBreaking down two of my positions from Tuesday.
First entry was a very aggressive momentum entry on the flip of a M3 imbalance.
Second entry was fantastic and even though it lost - it was a good trade to take. We had HTF alignment as well as a strong London Low to trade away from.
Ethereum – 1D timeframe overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
The seller has reached their target.
A buyer started buying from the 2184 level and now holds the initiative.
Targets are on the chart.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Stock Index Futures - ES, NQ, YM - Weekly AnalysisS&P 500 / ESU2025
Key drivers:
Rebounding from April’s tariff-induced lows, boosted by optimism around U.S.–China trade, easing geopolitical tensions, and Fed rate‑cut expectations
Market breadth strengthened as sectors beyond mega-cap tech—especially financials and industrials—joined the rally
Nasdaq / NQU2025
Catalysts:
Continued leadership from AI/digital giants like Nvidia (which rose ~4% on Friday and regained its title as the world’s most valuable company) alongside broader tech momentum
Dow Jones / YMU2025
Highlights:
Strongest weekly performance since early April.
Corporate earnings (e.g., Nike’s better-than-expected report) provided sector-specific tailwinds.
Cross‑asset momentum: Equities rebounded strongly from April’s slump, logging back-to-back months of double-digit gains—fuelled by tariff ease, geopolitical calm, and dovish Fed signals.
Vigilance required: While sentiment is strong, potential catalysts include the July 9 deadline on tariff pauses, upcoming jobs data, Fed commentary, and the tax/spending package.
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I will be approaching the markets differently from now on.
Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other.
This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years.
It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
Forex Weekly Round-Up - 30th Jun 25Dollar Index:
Dollar Index declined further, hovering near 97.0–96.9 — its weakest level since February 2022.
Key Driver: Markets digested a slightly hotter US core PCE inflation report (+2.3% YoY for May), paired with weak personal spending, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve might pivot to rate cuts later this year.
GBPUSD:
The pound surged, touching highs around 1.3770 — its strongest in nearly four years — before dipping slightly to finish the week near 1.3720
Weekly gain clocked in around +2%, the largest move since early March
Rally Fuelled By : Broader dollar weakness, easing Middle East tensions (ceasefire), and dovish Fed signals suggesting potential rate cuts.
EURUSD
The euro enjoyed a rally, peaking near 1.1754 — its highest since September 2021 — before closing the week around 1.1720
Weekly gain came to approximately +1.7% to +1.9%, driven by euro strength and broad weakness in the US dollar
Traders are eyeing upcoming US data (PCE inflation, Michigan sentiment) for next directional cues
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I will be approaching the markets differently from now on.
Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other.
This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years.
It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
US10Y & ZB1! (Bonds) Weekly AnalysisUS 10‑Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
The 10‑year yield ended last Friday (June 27, 2025) at 4.27%
After peaking above 4.46% mid‑week, yields eased late‑week as markets increasingly priced in potential Fed rate cuts—a 25 bp move in July was seen at 22.7% probability, up from ~14%
This dovish shift, alongside a softer May PCE print, supported a lull in yield increases
Still, Inflation concerns and record debt issuance continue to underpin a term premium on long-duration debt
ZB1 – 30‑Year Treasury Bond Futures
The September‑expiry T‑Bond futures (ZB1) which trade inversely to yield, saw modest price appreciation, reflecting falling yields.
Futures prices responded to the dovish Fed tone and easing global tensions, aligning with stock market gains.
The spread between 10‑ and 30‑year yields widened to ~56 bp—the largest since late 2021—illustrating increased yield curve steepening, mirrored in futures.
------------------------------------
I will be approaching the markets differently from now on.
Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other.
This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years.
It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
NASDAQ| - Continuation Setup Fueled by Momentum📌 Pair: NAS100 (NASDAQ)
📈 Bias: Bullish
🕰 HTF View (4H):
Strong bullish momentum unfolding with structure showing clear intent to continue higher. No major signs of reversal—smart money appears to be driving price up.
🧭 MTF View (30M → 2H clarity):
Using the 2H for cleaner narrative. Waiting for a clean sweep of sell-side liquidity (SSL) into a refined OB to continue the move. 30M showing structural alignment with the bullish bias.
🎯 Entry Criteria:
LTF CHoCH → Liquidity sweep → OB mitigation
Confirm the shift and execute on the return.
🎯 Target: Structure highs above
🧠 Mindset Note:
Momentum is your ally—but don’t let speed replace structure. Follow your confirmation sequence, stay surgical, and let price do the work.
Bless Trading!
GBPUSD| - Riding the Bullish Wave with Precision📌 Pair: GBPUSD
📈 Bias: Bullish
🕰 HTF View (4H):
Major external structure (HH) broken to the upside — clear bullish intent from smart money. Strong momentum confirms continued interest in pushing price higher.
🧭 MTF View (30M → 2H clarity):
Refined bullish structure forming on 30M. Using the 2H to filter noise and spot deeper liquidity. Watching closely for a sell-side sweep into OB for cleaner, higher-probability LTF entries.
🎯 Entry Criteria:
CHoCH flip → Liquidity sweep → OB mitigation
Perfect sequence = greenlight for execution.
🎯 Target: Structure highs above
🧠 Mindset Note:
Sometimes the best entries come after everyone else gets taken out. Be the one who waits, confirms, then strikes with intention.
Bless Trading!