GBP/USD - Weekly Market OutlookHi all,
Last week we had a very successful week capturing 5-6 big moves all over 300Pips...
Due to the market being closed I will be doing my review of my preferred Currency Pairs.
First pair being GBP/USD -
Weekly view is Bearish
Daily View is still Bearish
Due to higher TF being Bearish I will be looking for overall sell setups.
I will be posting smaller TF analysis also on my page so be sure to follow and comment if you like the way I break down the charts
On this view being the Daily Time frame I see price has returned to a strong Supply zone, price reacted off this before climbing back up to the Supply and making another rejection. This time price gave us a Double Top giving me strong confluence of a Reversal being strong Sellers Volume, price also pushed away with a 6H Order Block BUT... price did NOT return back to this Order Block and measuring on the Fib for the OTE zone we also didn't tap into the 71% Level.
This means we cannot jump straight into a sell but I do see price having a run here so I would like to see a smaller TF pullback before looking to enter a sell Position of which I will breakdown on the page.
Hope this helps you guys and please keep up with the Support.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Weakness Across The Board #S1E6In this episode, I will take you through the devastation NFP left in it's wake and what we can draw from the signatures left behind.
With many expecting 2025 to start off with a bang, we have seen nothing but inconsistencies in price action.
Trump and his tariffs also doesn't help but the good news is, once w get through this period, we will see price action loosen up.
70% Dot.com crash to repeat for Microsoft?** long term forecast, the years ahead **
On the above 2 month chart price action has rallied 700% in the last 9 years. A number or reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. They include:
1) Price action and RSI support breakouts.
2) Legacy support confirms resistance.
3) A rising wedge formation confirms breakout, with 50% correction forecast to $220. (see below)
4) Regular bearish divergence as measured across a 10 month period. It is in fact the highest number of oscillators to negatively with price action.
5) Confirmed monthly Gravestone DOJI candle. (see below)
6) A 70% correction would still leave Microsoft with a market capital of $915b !!
Is it possible price action continues to print higher highs? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Rising wedge breakout
Monthly Gravestone DOJI
Stock Of The Day / 02.05.25 / BBAI02.05.2025 / NYSE:BBAI #BBAI
Fundamentals. The company signed a contract with the Department of Defense's chief digital and artificial intelligence office to develop an AI solution.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Uptrend. Exit from two-month accumulation. Level 6.77 formed by the trend break in February 2023 is ahead. The screenshot shows a more informative weekly chart.
Premarket: Gap Up on increased volume.
Trading session: The primary impulse from the opening was stopped at 5.80, after that the price began to tighten to this level, forming pullbacks, each subsequent one smaller than the previous one. We are considering a long trade when the 5.80 level is broken.
Trading scenario: #breakout (#tightening) of the 5.80 level
Entry: 5.85 aggressive entry into the breakout.
Stop: 5.63 we hide it behind the last pullback.
Exit: Close part of the position before the daily level of 6.77. Close the rest around 7.22 when the candle closed below the trend line.
Risk Rewards: 1/5
P.S. In order to understand the idea behind the Stock Of The Day analysis, read the following information .
NZDUSD - 5 Feb 2025 SetupNZDUSD Market structure are making a bullish breakout with strong bullish rally. Spotted demand area (Green Rectangle). its a very good demand area structure after the price creating a higher high.
Entry Position : Long
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly below demand area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
GBP/USD Short Trade Setup NFPI’m planning a short trade on GBP/USD based on the following analysis:
Monday , This week opened with a gap on monday
Wednesday probably created a significant high of the week.
Thursday BOE Rate Cuts Impact: The pound weakened on following the rate cuts.
Friday today London Session: Price is currently moving higher, looking to fill imbalances and target liquidity around 1.2455 and 1.2494.
Key Zones : Monitoring the FVG zones for price reactions and potential rejection around the marked imbalances.
Entry Strategy : Considering short positions around these levels with a tight stop-loss to manage risk.
Additional Insights: Watching for any significant breaks in market structure, especially with the upcoming NFP report and might look to target Monday low around @1.2250
Conclusion:
It's all a probability game so don't forget to manage risk. Jobs report are key.
Based on the current market conditions and upcoming NFP report, I’m looking for potential shorting opportunities on GBP/USD around the identified liquidity zones and imbalances.
XAU/USD 07 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation
Price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,882.310.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price continue bearish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,882.310
Alternative scenario:
As H4 remains in bearish pullback phase, it would be viable to consider price targeting strong internal low, priced at 2,722.215.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
EURUSD ENTRY IDEAThe overall trend is bullish,but the DAILY CLOSE is showing us a REVERSAL SIGN + The Fact that its around a POI, also we have an inducement as a confluence,coming from a SUPPLY area at 30mins, also the DXY is BEARISH, but closed with an INVERTED HAMMER CANDLE,which we expect market to fill. If this matches with your Idea, you can add to your watch-list, A 1r to 7r trade, update would be given in the UPDATE SECTION.
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures.
Global Impact:
International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics.
Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment:
Strong NFP Data:
A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures.
Weak NFP Data:
A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term.
This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS.
🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
Stock Of The Day / 02.04.25 / EL02.04.2025 / NYSE:EL #EL
Fundamentals. Earnings report. Estee Lauder beats earnings expectations, but negative forecasts send shares lower.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Downtrend. Level 69.78 formed by the gap in November 2024 is ahead.
Premarket: Gap Down on increased volume.
Trading session: A pullback after the initial downward movement was stopped at the level of 74.00. We observe a narrow range and a clear holding of the price below the level. We are considering a short trade to continue the downward movement in case of holding the level of 74.00.
Trading scenario: #Pullback along the trend (#rebound) from the level 74.00
Entry: 73.13 when exit down from the trading range below the level.
Stop: 74.12 we hide it behind the level with a small reserve.
Exit: Close part of the position before the daily level of 69.78. Close the remaining part of the position at a price of 68.50 when the structure of the downtrend is broken.
Risk Rewards: 1/4
P.S. In order to understand the idea behind the Stock Of The Day analysis, read the following information .
Long trade
15min TF overview
Buyside trade 2
Pair AUDUSD
LND to NY Session AM
10 Sec TF Entry
5.00 am (NY Time)
Entry 0.62807
Profit level 0.62936 (0.21%)
Stop level 0.62759 (0.08%)
RR 2.69
Reason: Buyside trade 2 due to I assumption of continuation to the upside and observing current price action seemed indicative of buyside pressure at this time.
BTCUSDT: a short SMC (Smart Money Concepts) breakdownBTCUSDT: a short SMC (Smart Money Concepts) breakdown
1️⃣ Daily (global perspective)
• Overall trend remains bullish, but we’re in a correction off the ~110k peak.
• Key daily demand zones: 90–92k and 85–88k.
• Major supply above at 100–105k.
2️⃣ 4H (mid-term)
• A downtrend is forming within the broad 92–105k range.
• Nearest resistance: 98–100k (supply zone).
• Support: 94–92k. A break below 92k could extend toward 90–88k.
3️⃣ 1H (local view)
• Price is pressured down: a series of BOS signals bears in control.
• Trend reversal requires a break above ~98–99k with firm hold.
4️⃣ Conclusion
• Below 98k, likely more downside toward 92–94k.
• A bounce off 92–94k might test 98–99k. Breaking above that opens 100–105k.
• Watch how price reacts around 92–94k and 98–99k for the next major move.
Focus: look for BOS/CHoCH near these zones, confirm entries with patterns.
Always keep risk management and fundamentals (news, macro stats, etc.) in mind.
XAU/USD Trade Idea: Potential Long Setup📊 Pair: XAU/USD (Gold)
💡 Trade Bias: Bullish
• Buy Entry: Around 2,816.691
• Take Profit (TP): 2,882.344
• Key Level (IDM): 2,839.487
🎯 Plan:
Waiting for price to take out the IDM level before moving into my order flow for a refined entry. Will look for a CHoCH flip on the 5M timeframe within the order block to confirm bullish intent.
🚨 Note: Price action near the IDM level and 5M confirmation will dictate the actual entry. Staying cautious until all confirmations align.
Short trade
4Hr TF
Sellside
Pair EURJYP
Entry 4Hr TF
Thu 6th Feb 25
LND Session AM
8.50 am NY Time
Entry 157.776
Profit level 155.465 (1.46%)
Stop level 158.191 (0.26%)
RR 5.57
Reason: Just a quick view on the 4Hr TF sellside dominance seems to be in control with momentum to the downside. I assume the price will descend (1.46%) to the previous respected support zone 155.191...?