With Bullish bias into new Week - 2025/05/26Last week, I published my idea for a whole week with daily updates for the first time. You can read about it here:
🎯 The target of $3348 was reached on Friday due to the announcement of new tariffs against the European Union.
💡 Here is my idea for the week from May 26-30, 2025.
First things first, the Friday session last week ended with bullish momentum. Even though the gold price consolidated more at the $3366 mark, it was obviously to allow time to pass and calm down stressed values like EMA or MACD. This is a very good sign for the start of the week because if the Asia timezone takes the invite, the gold price has a good chance to rise. My expectation is a bullish GAP right at the beginning; if so, it's a clear sign for the rest of the day, in my opinion. These thoughts would support my goal from above $3500 during the week.
📰 Geopolitical News Landscape
India / Pakistan
The ceasefire from May 10 remains tense but intact. Both sides claim victory, while Pakistan strengthens ties with China. Cross-border attacks have ceased, but mutual distrust persists.
➡️ Situation remains fragile; renewed escalation is possible.
Gaza Conflict
Israel intensifies "Gideon’s Chariot" with ground forces in Khan Younis. Mass evacuations and high civilian casualties worsen the humanitarian crisis. Peace talks have stalled as the offensive continues.
➡️ No relief in sight; humanitarian conditions are deteriorating further.
Russia / Ukraine
On May 24, Russia launched its largest air assault yet with 367 missiles and drones—13 civilians were killed. Just before, both sides exchanged 1,000 prisoners. Peace talks remain suspended.
➡️ Violence is escalating; a ceasefire remains out of reach.
U.S.–China Trade War
The 90-day tariff pause triggered a rush to import from China. Shipping bottlenecks and high freight rates are straining businesses. Structural issues remain unresolved.
➡️ Short-term easing; long-term tensions persist.
Trade War on global view
The global trade war has escalated in May 2025, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports and a 25% levy on foreign-made smartphones, citing trade imbalances. The EU has condemned these moves, warning of potential retaliation. In response to U.S. tariffs, China has restricted rare earth exports, impacting global supply chains. ASEAN nations, heavily affected by U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%, are urging deeper regional integration to mitigate economic disruptions. The IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2025, citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Supply chains are being restructured, with companies shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Financial markets are volatile, with increased inflationary pressures and investor anxiety.
➡️ Emerging markets face currency volatility and economic instability due to the ongoing trade conflicts.
⚖️Trump vs. Powell
President Trump increases pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates. The Fed holds interest rates at 4.25–4.5% and warns of inflation. A 10% staff reduction is planned to boost efficiency.
➡️Political interference is increasingly destabilizing markets.
U.S. Inflation – April 2025
Inflation dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. However, consumer inflation expectations remain high at 7.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8—a historic low.
➡️A clear gap is emerging between official data and public perception.
🔋 Technical Analysis – Short-Term
📊 Analysis: May 19–24, 2025
Weekly Low: $3,204 (May 20)
Weekly High: $3,366 (May 23)
Weekly Close (May 23): approx. $3,358
Total Gain: +5%
🟢 Trend: A clear uptrend is evident. After hitting a low of $3,204 on May 20, gold experienced a strong rally, forming consistently higher highs and higher lows. A brief pullback on May 22 was quickly bought up.
📈 Structure: A series of bullish flag patterns developed, each resolving to the upside. The high at $3,366 currently marks the most significant resistance level.
🔮 Outlook from May 26, 2025
Resistance: $3,366 (recent high)
Support: $3,310 (last local low), below that $3,280 (breakout zone)
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above $3,310
📌 Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout: A sustained breakout above $3,366 could unlock further upside potential toward the $3,390–$3,410 area. When Asia session starting with bull GAP the Scenario is the one i preffer.
📌 Scenario 2 – Pullback: A retracement to the $3,310–$3,280 zone would be a healthy correction within the trend, provided this zone holds.
🧭 Conclusion:
Gold remains in a steady uptrend. As long as support levels hold, a continuation toward $3,500 is likely. RSI may be overbought on higher timeframes, so short-term consolidations are possible, but structurally the setup remains bullish.
Anything to ad? Feel free to tell your thoughts.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
BTC Roadmap Still Intact Bullish Momentum Building Toward 120KBitcoin Price action continues to validate the bullish roadmap shared in our last BTC post. The market respected the Immediate Buy Back Zone, springing from a demand backed structure into a fresh impulsive leg.
Notably, price has carved a clean 5-wave structure supported by recurring bullish pennants and continuation patterns each breakout driving momentum higher. Our target at 120,151 remains firmly intact, with price action showing healthy structure and controlled pullbacks.
The current setup remains valid as long as price holds above 106,655 and especially 100,941, which now act as structural pivot zones. Any deeper correction into the Demand Area would only serve as a re-accumulation window before the next leg.
Let’s see how price behaves into June. Momentum is aligning with structure.
Share your thoughts, like the post, and drop your setup confirmations on the comment section.
Why I Think Gold May Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I think Gold will continue to buy today and potentially for the rest of the week. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference the indicators on your chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market has been pushing up since it hit a swing low at 3285
- Bullish candles are picking up momentum with Bullish engulfing on H1. This is a bullish confirmation for me
- The STOCHASTIC is facing up, the orange line (slow) is below the blue line (fast), both have crossed above 50%.
These are all bullish confirmations for me. I will setting buy stops as marked on my chart. I will set my SL at the previous low and use previous highs as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know how it goes in the comments below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
RBA Could Still Cut Despite Higher AU CPI: AU paid in focusToday I take a quick look at Australia's inflation figures and outline why I think the RBA could still cut in July, before moving on to charts for AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, EUR/AUD and AUD/JPY.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Algorand to $1Pattern Overview
A textbook bull flag formation has materialised and appears to be have confirmed support on past resistance. The pattern shows the classic characteristics of a strong impulse move followed by a controlled consolidation phase.
Key Technical Elements
Flag Formation Structure:
Initial strong bullish impulse creating the "flagpole"
Orderly consolidation within a defined channel (the "flag")
Decreasing volume during consolidation phase
Recent breakout above flag resistance with volume confirmation
Moving Average Support: Price action has found support at both the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages.
Recent price action bouncing cleanly off these dynamic support levels
RSI Confirmation: RSI showing healthy momentum without being overbought
The oscillator pattern mirrors the flag consolidation, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than distribution
Technical Outlook
Bull flags are typically measured by adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout point. . The next impulsive wave forecasts price action to $1
Risk Management
While the technical setup appears strong, proper risk management remains essential. A break back into the flag structure, especially below the moving average support zone, would warrant reassessment of the bullish thesis.
Ww
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This analysis is for educational purposes and represents technical observations based on price action and indicators shown on the 2-day timeframe.
Short trade
1Hr TF overview
🟥 Sell-side Trade Log
📉 Pair: BTC/USDT
🏷️ Type: Intraday | LND to NY Session AM
🧠 Setup: Breakout / Continuation
📅 Date: Tuesday, 27th May 2025
🕘 Time: 9:00 AM
🔹 Entry Price: 110654.27
🔹 Profit Target: 107536.61 (+2.82%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 110799.84 (-0.13%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 21.42
🔍 Reasoning:
Sell-side trade was triggered during the London to New York session transition. Based on the narrative of market session - liquidity sweep of previous session high.