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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

USD/JPY looks set for some mean reversionWhile the USD and yen have been the strongest currencies so far this week, I suspect the decline on the USD/JPY daily chart is overdone on the daily chart and due a bounce. A Doji formed on Monday at the October VPOC (volume point of control) to suggest demand just above 149. Given the bullish divergence on the daily and 4-hour RSI (2), the bias is to seek dips within the support zone in anticipation of a bounce to the weekly pivot point around 151.
Long
by CityIndex
BTCUSDT deal on 5m 📅 Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024, 03:00 (UTC+7) Market Analysis: - 📊 Daily Chart (1D): Impulse phase with a long tendency. Zone: Neutral. - 📈 Hourly Chart (1H): Impulse phase with a short tendency. A two-bar Spring pattern formed at T1 buy level. - ⏱️ 5-Minute Chart (5M): Impulse phase with a long tendency. A two-bar Spring pattern with a test formed at T2 buy level. 💰 Trade Result: A conservative counter-trend deal was completed with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. Take Profit was hit. Profit: 0.55%. Sam Veisi
Long
by MrXade
NIFTY Trade Setup for Tuesday (03-Dec-2024)NSE:NIFTY Post Market Analysis by Srinivas Vemula NIFTY Weekly Outlook Economic Events : USA Jobless Claims Data ( November 30) India RBI Policy Repo Rate (06-Dec-2024) Institutional Bias - Bearish ( NIFTY FUTURES) Institutional Framework - Price Reversal Institutional Reference Data Points - Premium Arrays Institutional Price Delivery - ERL(BSL) to IRL( SSL) ERL - External Range Liquidity IRL - Internal Range Liquidity BSL - Buy Side Liquidity SSL - Sell Side Liquidity Premium Arrays Bearish Order block (H4) Buy Side Liquidity (W1/H4) Bearish FVG (H4) Discount Arrays: Bullish Breaker (H4) Bullish Mitigation (M15)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by chartology369
Drummond Geometry: Envelopes and TerminationsIn Drummond Geometry, envelopes serve as dynamic zones of expected price action, and terminations mark key points where price either respects or challenges these levels. Let’s explore these concepts based on the chart provided and the behavior of Tesla stock. 1. Envelopes and Their Role - Definition : Envelopes represent boundaries derived from price movement, predicting areas of support and resistance. The chart displays various DG lines and envelopes: - The inner bands (the blue filled area limited by red lines) reflect the Envelope Top and Bottom - The outer envelope also known as Area 1 for the below part and Area 6 for the above part (dark green zone) marks the exhaustion zone , where price typically meets resistance or support and reverses. - Behavior on the Chart : Notice how Tesla’s price action interacts with the envelopes: - After a significant upward movement in early November, prices exceeded the upper exhaustion zone . - Rather than reversing, the exhaustion zone acted as support , allowing price to consolidate and enabling the envelopes and PLdot to "catch up" to the higher price levels. This might seem unlogical, it appears however more often than not. The PLdot needs to catch up with the price action! 2. Terminations and Congestion - Congestion Terminations (Blue dots/circles): These occur where price closes near the DG line, indicating indecision or a pause in trend direction. In the chart: - Blue terminations cluster around October 30 - November 6, showing congestion after which a sharp move up follows. This congestion allowed the price action to stabilize before resuming the trend. - Breakout and Continuation : When prices break above or below the envelope, terminations play a critical role: - On November 11, the price could not break the exhaust zone for the Nov. 12, thus typically signaling exhaustion. The high of that day was rejected by the lower exhaust boundary of Nov. 12. Remember, you know the exhaust zone for the upcoming day with DG as these are always available for the bar ahead - What followed was a "cycle". In DG this is explained as a market movement from one envelope to the opposite one. Price eventually went to the daily exhaust zone below, which was also the proxiity of the MTF live weekly ETOP finding support and rotating again higher. 3. Interaction of DG Lines (5-2 and 5-9) The chart includes: - 5-2 Lines (Yellow Circles and Crosses): These lines reflect nearer-term support and resistance. - 5-9 Lines (Red Circles and Crosses): These represent stronger levels of potential support and resistance. --- 4. Exhaustion Zone Acting as Support The most notable observation from the chart is how the exhaustion zone flips its typical behavior: - Expected Behavior : Normally, when prices move into the exhaustion zone (upper envelope), resistance is expected, leading to a pullback. - What Happened : In this case: - The exhaustion zone acted as support . - The price stabilized above this level, allowing the PLdot and envelopes to "catch up." - This "catch-up" mechanism reflects a realignment between market momentum and the statistical framework of the DG lines. Takeaway for Traders This chart demonstrates that while envelopes and terminations provide reliable zones for potential price reactions: 1. Context is Key: The exhaustion zone’s behavior can adapt, switching roles between resistance and support depending on market conditions. 2. Congestion Helps Trends : Congestion terminations (blue dots) can mark pauses that prepare for further trend continuation. 3. Flexibility of DG Lines : The interaction of 5-2 and 5-9 levels offers layered insight into market structure, helping traders refine entries and exits. By combining envelope behavior, termination probabilities, and DG line interactions, traders can better anticipate price movements and manage risk effectively.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by JordanMT
Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off. Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT USDJPY - LONG GBPJPY - SHORT AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
YOUR GUIDE TO CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS! What's up guys it's been a while! I know it's the holiday seasons, and that's the best time of year for me. Here is a wonderful present for you all, as a token of my appreciation. Thankful for the supportive and hateful people, not equally of course! 🤣 Anyways.... the things you must keep in mind when utilizing candlestick analysis in your trading are the following, Gs: 1) Understanding the anatomy of a candlestick - images.ctfassets.net 2) Candlestick color - The color of the candles individually matter in structure but also together they tell a story.... three inside down candle stick pattern at a lower high point in market structure for example. 3) Size of the candle - size of candle does matter as it indicates how volatile and wide reaching the market can be that day based on this data. 4) Volume - This one is obvious, Gs. 5) Timeframe of candlesticks being observed - understand candlesticks on higher timeframe hold more weight so they're more valid. (1h+) in consolidated structure on higher timeframe, lower timeframe candlestick structure is what you need to identify breakouts that'll be big on HTF. 6) Candlestick patterns - content.stockstotrade.com 7) Length of wicks on the candles - This is huge because wicks are a direct indication of exhaustion, which BASICALLY is buyer or seller weakness which directly aids me in basically every trade when finding that sniper entry i'm known for! Do not sleep on this step (or any, for that matter, I don't make these for FUN.) 8) Support/Resistance levels - I recommend going to lower time frames in these areas and using steps 2, 3, 6 mixed with timeframe correlation to make a sniper entry. GOODLUCK Gs!
Education
by PipSniperJ
6
Again... $NQ hits 4x Asian Session Standard Deviation *smc*I made a tutorial not long ago that this setup happens mroe often than not. So I'm posting a second setup to prove my case. What's the difference? The entrance will depend on previous buy/sell models and if price hits the right order block without needing to go after sell side liquidity the higher the entry (or sell side, the lower the entry)... in this case is the higher. Because below is a lot of price action and the bottom hits just below the asian session at a breaker. Exit will head toward liquidity. On the 4 hr chart the liquidity point is 21,190. 4HR HART I hope these tutorials will help you continue to keep finding these setups. Happy Trading CME_MINI:NQ1! BLACKBULL:NAS100 CAPITALCOM:US100
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by BodiesXWix
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
NovoCure Limited (NVCR) to rally 100% ??** short term forecast, days and weeks ahead ** On the above 10 day chart price action has crashed 95% since support failed. Today sellers are trying to push that correction to 100%, are they right? Unlikely. 1) Price action (not visible on LOG) and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Support on past resistance confirms. 3) Trend reversal. Higher lows print. 4) Bull flag confirmation forecasting a 100% move to mid 30’s. Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: you decide Timeframe for long: Yesterday Return: 100% Stop loss: Will say elsewhere
NASDAQ:NVCRLong
by without_worries
6
S&P: Weekly Recap and OutlookLast week, the market opened with a gap up that was quickly filled, after which price hovered near the previous all-time high. Bolstered by new economic data, which delivered no negative surprises, bulls pushed the price out of the trading range, establishing a new all-time high. While this is undoubtedly a positive development that reinforces the bullish thesis, a few warning signs warrant closer attention: 1. Low Breakout Volume: The breakout occurred on significantly low volume. While volume is less critical in indices and ETFs compared to individual stocks, observing below-average volume during such an important event raises concerns about the breakout’s sustainability. 2. Relative Weakness in the Tech Sector (XLK): This deviation signals hesitancy among growth investors, which could potentially ripple through to other market participants. Additionally, concerns highlighted in my previous review remain unresolved and continue to be relevant. At this stage, there is no concrete evidence of a sentiment shift or technical signals pointing to a broad trend reversal. However, there is a growing impression that the rally may be nearing temporary exhaustion, which could lead to a significant pullback. Key Focus for the Upcoming Week Investors will be closely watching the employment data, which has already hinted at labor market weakness. If new data further support this trend, it could heighten bearish sentiment. Price action this week will likely provide important clues: • Bullish Confirmation: If the breakout is followed by a swift continuation, this will confirm buyers’ conviction and overall market strength. • Bearish Signals: Conversely, if the price pulls back below 600 or oscillates indecisively around this level, it may signal uncertainty among buyers, creating an opportunity for short sellers to capitalize.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5