Multiple Time Frame Analysis
EUR/USD 4H Analysis: Smart Money Concept SetupOn the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD transitioned from a downtrend to bullish momentum after breaking the previous LH. This indicates a potential trend reversal.
Price swept liquidity at the IDM level, confirming the inducement move. I’ll now move to the 30M timeframe to refine my entry. My focus is on waiting for a CHoCH (Change of Character) and a bullish order block retest before executing a buy position.
Sticking to one pair this week to maintain a focused approach. Let’s see how this plays out!
Feedback is welcome—drop your thoughts below!
Bless Trading!
EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
" Strike the bound, and the free will take heed "
Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency
Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.”
A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics
Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies.
Strategic Outlook for Investors
With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures.
In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low.
🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
XRP Weak Hands Selling! XRPUSD Cheap BUY? Ripple Long Bargain? XRP Weak Hands Selling! XRPUSD Cheap BUY? Ripple Long Bargain?
ℹ️ The thing is everyone talks about BUYING the 🥳DIP but the fact is that when the DIPS turn up the traders WITHOUT A PLAN often do 😕NOTHING or EVEN WORSE do the 😨OPPOSITE and chase the MOMENTUM DOWN. 😱
⚠️The Question Is Which Trader Are You❔️
Long trade
4hr TF overview
Buyside trade 1
Sun 2nd Feb 25
LND to NY Session AM
11.00 am
Entry 0.000015469
Profit level 0.000017276 (11.68%)
Stop level 0.000015273 (1.27%)
RR 9.22
Reason: overnight drop (12.82%)
Whykoff narrative: I assumed we reached the Selling climax..?
Indicative of a buyside trade.
Observed 4Hr TF
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - End of January AnalysisBitcoin and the Stock index market are amazing for comparing how fundamental news impacts these asset classes.
Both markets don’t have a strong correlation when we look at the price charts but the biggest thing they have in common is Artificial Intelligence meaning any negative news that is released will affect the price of both classes classes.
We have seen weakness on the weekly timeframe with the chance of a draw down into a discount below $90,000.
Dow Jones (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisSimilar to Nasdaq and S&P, although we have closed bullish for the month, Donald Trump has made an announcement that tariffs will be placed in Mexico, Canada and China at a rate of 25% & 10%, which the market did not seem to like on the Friday.
Intraday timeframes tell a different story to what the macro market structure is dictating.
Short term, we could be in for a bearish retracement, rooting out all the stubborn traders who have a medium to long term trade on whilst trailing their stop.
Very interested this month with how YM, NQ and ES delivers.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisNasdaq was set for weekly losses due to the rout that DeepSeek caused; revealing the breakthrough they had with low-cost artificial intelligence models. This caused a bloodbath in AI linked stocks.
Technically speaking, we closed the month bullish but was still within a price range of the previous month, December 2024.
Anything higher than 50% of the December monthly wick would give me the confidence to continue the bullish bias but I see the opportunity for a short-term market shift back into a area of previous rejections @ $20,025 - $20,428 so this is what I am looking toward until proven otherwise.
Candle body closure above $22,093.50 will change my monthly bias to bullish as this will go hand in hand with my 6-month perspective
S&P 500 (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisS&P breaks the two week winning streak, finishing 1% down in rough trading conditions as China’s AI push weights amid bevy of corporate reports.
With the news being released by Donald Trump that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexico and Canada + 10% for China, this could be seen as a bullish signal for the stock index. But sometimes bullies don’t always get their way and we could be in for a short term retracement targeting the lows of October’s bullish order block @ $5,856 - $5,776
XRP/USD -Learnig from Mistakes and Refining Entries (30M TF)In trading, losses are just as important as wins when it comes to learning and improving.
Here's a breakdown of a recent setup I analyzed on XRP/USD that didn't play out as planned-and how I refined my approach to get it right.
What Went Wrong (Bottom Chart):
=I initially identified a break of Major Higher Low (HL) with a strong volume candle.
=I assumed this would lead to bearish momentum toward my target, but price failed to deliver.
=The issue? I overlooked key liquidity points and entered permaturely without a proper confirmation of intent.
What Worked (Top Chart):
=After reviewing the chart, I spotted the correct setup: a proper HL break, which swept Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / (IDM).
=Price tapped into a well-defined supply zone (order block) after taking liquidity, signaling a high-probability reversal.
=This approch aligned with the market structure and led to TP being smashed.
Key Takeaways:
1. Watch for liquidity sweeps and inducements before committing to a trade.
2. Confirm intent by combining structure breaks (CHoCH) with zones of interest like supply/demand zones.
3. Review losses thoroughly-they often hold the key to improving your entries and view.
Let me know your thoughts, or feel free to share your experiences below. Always learning, always evolving!
Nasdaq (March 2025) - AI All-Time High Boom!Nasdaq is trailing higher, just as ES and YM are but the market to watchout for is ES. Refer to this weeks analysis of ES to gain a deeper understanding.
Unlike ES where i am targeting all-time highs, I am more fascinated with the midpoint of the highs and open of the 16th Dec 2024 weekly candle as I would like to study how price reacts from this area.
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Expecting Resistance At All-Time HighsA rally to ATH is always a good sight to see but what I don't want to see is a fake out, especially in the higher timeframes like the weekly or daily.
Candlesticks like doji's, shooting stars just above ATH can increase the likelihood of a retracement back down into previous inefficiencies.
For the next two weeks, we all are going to be on a wild ride!
Took an L on XRP/USD - Lessons Learned!Trading is a journey, and not every trade is a winner. My recent XRP/USD position didn’t play out as expected. I went in with a bullish bias off the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for direction and entry. My analysis was aligned with inducements, CHoCH, and order block retests, but the market had other plans this time.
Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ Stick to the Plan: The setup followed my strategy, and though it didn’t work out, I trust my process. Losses are part of trading.
2️⃣ Risk Management is King: Keeping my risk low ensured this loss didn’t impact my account too heavily.
3️⃣ Market Lessons: Every loss is an opportunity to refine, reflect, and improve for the next move.
Even the best setups can fail, but consistency and discipline keep us in the game. The journey continues!
If you’ve been trading XRP/USD or faced a similar outcome, feel free to share your thoughts or feedback. Let’s grow together as traders.
#TradingView #XRPUSD #Crypto #Losses #SMC #Forex
Bless Trading!
BTC inexperience getting rolled - 2 ways use stairs to TPBottom's In
don't get rolled down the stairs learning to walk. Many people high on bull market gains want to imagine that anything under 100k is a deal in todays market. It may or may not be but commiting yourself to a position without confluence and TA or a news event is a great way to lose your footing and take a fall.
Wait for a bounce on the higher timeframes since we have been trending downwards for over a week and havnt been able to set any new market structure. Smart money bearish FVG Gaps were rejected and price is headed down on the weekly.
We are looking at a LONG at around 85 to 83 off the the 1D 200 EMA, It will need to stand as support with confirmation from indicators and Volume. It will bounce and retest quickly smart money is already in place to accumulate in this area.
PREVIOUS IDEA
Third time's the Charm? Waiting for Re-Entry on DOW MonthlyAfter successfully buying and offloading chunks twice, I’m now eagerly waiting for the price to revisit my Potential Entry Box to buy back the already offloaded chunk. If the pattern holds, I’ll likely offload again in the next target zone (new offload chunk box). 😊
Before you launch a rocket of anger 🚀 😅 Let me tell you that Last time, I forgot to take a screenshot of the first buy & offload chunk area & updated my chart straight away. 😅
Today, I finally learned how to add an image! 🎉
Note: I’m still learning, this is NOT financial advice. Do your own research, and I’m happy to have constructive criticism! Let’s learn together. 📈
BTCUSD - Watching for a Pullback Before the Bounce?COINBASE:BTCUSD is retracing, and I’m keeping a close eye on the 98,500 - 99,200 zone. My expectation? A tap into this area, followed by a bounce back toward 102,000.
Why I’m watching that particular zone is because it has provided relatively strong reactions before. So, if buyers step in again, we could see a potential reversal.
🎯My target is 102,000 – If we get a bounce, this is my first price of interest. It’s a realistic target, and how it behaves there will shape the next move.
My plan:
⚡ Waiting for price to tap the zone – with patience.
⚡ Looking for bullish signs – Strong wicks, a shift in structure, or clear buying pressure would confirm the idea.
⚡ Watching 102,000 closely – If price reaches it, I’ll reassess whether it has strength to push even higher.
I’m expecting Bitcoin to pull back into that zone before making its way back to 102,000. If it plays out as expected, this could be a clean move.
⚠️ This is how I see the support and resistance zones—not financial advice! Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
The Trading Quest: Leveling Up Your Trading GameHello, fellow traders.
In this education post I will present the evolution of a trader as levels because, truth be told, trading sometimes feels like a video game—except the boss fights are market volatility, and here the only cheat code is discipline. Developing a winning strategy is a journey that starts with basic understanding and evolves into a well polished plan. For this to happen, certain levels have to be "burnt".
So below I will outline what I think are the levels of development a winning trading strategy, starting from initial experimentation to highly refined and scalable strategy:
1️⃣ Level 1: The Trial and Error Phase
In the beginning, traders experiment with different strategies, tools, and systems. They may rely on random tips, indicators, or systems they read about online, often jumping from one strategy to another without a clear understanding of why one works and another doesn't.
Important Aspects:
The main issue here is lack of consistency. Strategies often lead to inconsistent results because traders fail to backtest or assess the viability of a system over time. At this stage, the trader might experience frustration as they can't pinpoint why certain strategies work or fail.
Why?
Testing and refining are vital to developing a strategy. A trader must learn the importance of understanding market conditions and being patient with their trial-and-error process. Backtesting becomes an invaluable tool for this level.
2️⃣ Level 2: The Search for the Right Strategy
By this stage, traders understand that there is no "perfect" strategy, but a variety of strategies can work depending on the market behavior. They start to narrow down their focus and look for strategies that align with their risk tolerance, personality, and time commitment.
Important Aspects:
The trial here is resisting the temptation to continuously jump between different strategies. Traders may still be tempted by the allure of quick profits and may find themselves trying too many things at once, leading to becoming overwhelmed.
Why?
It is important to focus on finding simplicity and focus on one strategy. Strategies should be tailored to personal strengths, whether that’s day trading, swing trading, or position trading. The trader needs to focus on risk-reward ratios and refine their approach to fit the market conditions.
3️⃣Level 3: Strategy Development and Backtesting
At this level, the trader now begins to build their strategy around clearly defined rules for entry, exit, and risk management. Backtesting comes into play, allowing the trader to see how the strategy would have performed in different market conditions. This stage marks the beginning of data-driven decisions rather than relying on guesswork.
Important Aspects:
The main focus here is to avoid over-optimization. There is the temptation to over-optimize the strategy based on historical data, which can lead to curve fitting. Strategies must be robust enough to perform in a variety of market environments, not just those found in past data.
Why?
Robust backtesting provides valuable insights, but should not be viewed as a guarantee of future performance. The focus should be on understanding the strategy’s performance across a range of scenarios and refining risk-reward parameters.
4️⃣ Level 4: Refining and Optimization
With a tested strategy in place, traders now focus on refining their approach to adapt to real market conditions. This involves implementing risk management techniques such as position sizing, stop-losses or maximum drawdown limits. Here the focus is on refining the strategy, ensuring it is flexible and adaptable to various market environments.
Important Aspects:
During this phase is important to maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio. Overoptimizing for profitability can lead to excessive risk exposure, which undermines the strategy's long-term viability.
Why?
Because optimization is an ongoing process. Strategies should never be set in stone. The trader learns that fine-tuning a strategy based on live market conditions and feedback is a continuous process. Optimizing the risk-reward balance will determine the long-term success of the strategy.
5️⃣ Level 5: Live Trading with a Demo or Small Capital
Finally! Trust me when I say this is the biggest turning point.
After refining the strategy, traders move to live markets with real money, (if then haven't been tempted already and lost money). Often time they start small or using demo accounts to minimize risk. At this level, traders will encounter the psychological elements of trading—such as fear of loss, overconfidence after wins, or hesitation after losses.
Important Aspects:
The main trial at this level is that the emotional component of trading takes over. Traders may experience a shift in behavior when real money is at stake, even though they had success in demo accounts or small-size trades. Overtrading, revenge trading, and second-guessing the strategy are common pitfalls.
Why?
The trader must apply the same rules from backtesting to live trading, despite the emotions involved. At this stage, mental resilience and psychological control are just as important as the strategy itself.
6️⃣ Level 6: Full Strategy Deployment and Scaling
By now, the trader has developed confidence in their strategy. They’ve mastered the mental discipline required to follow their trading plan, even when emotions are high. The trader begins scaling their strategy, increasing position sizes while maintaining the risk-reward ratio and capital allocation that suits their risk tolerance.
Important Aspects:
At this level, the trial is to maintain consistency while scaling. The trader may face issues related to emotional attachment to larger positions or feel the pressure to adjust the strategy for increased capital. Market volatility can also affect decision-making, leading to increased risk exposure.
Why?
As the trader increases their trading capital, they must remain mindful of market conditions and adjust position sizes accordingly. Portfolio diversification and ensuring that no single trade has too large an impact on overall capital are essential here.
7️⃣Level 7: The Master Strategist - The Final Boss 🏆
Congratulations! At this highest level, you must have developed a consistently profitable strategy that can be applied in different market behavior. The strategy has become highly effective in various conditions, and the trader can easily adapt to different setups without deviating from the core principles.
Important Aspects:
Now the focus is on fine-tuning their mindset for optimal performance. They anticipate emotional triggers before they happen and know exactly how to deal with them when they do come. The trader’s mental clarity allows them to stay composed during market volatility and follow their strategy with unmoved commitment.
Why?
The pinnacle of trading psychology is the ability to systematically execute trades with confidence, without being influenced by fear, greed, or euphoria. This confidence comes from knowing that their strategy is built on years of testing, adjustment, and improvement. This allows them to consistently make rational decisions that align with their long-term trading goals.
They maintain discipline regardless of market volatility and use data-driven decisions to continue growing their capital.
📈
Developing a winning trading strategy is a dynamic process that requires continuous learning, adjustment, and discipline. Traders must be patient with themselves during each level, from the initial trial and error to the refined, proven strategy that supports consistent success. The levels involve mastering both the technical elements of strategy development and the psychological factors that affect trading performance. 🌟
“XRP/USD - Adding a Second Position to Ride the Wave”4H Bias Holds Strong - 5M Entry Refinement
In continuation of my initial position on XRP/USD, I’ve added a second entry to compound on the 4H bullish bias move.
Key Observations:
1. 4H Structure: The price respected the order block within the IDM zone, confirming bullish intent.
2. Refined Entry: Top screenOn the 5M timeframe, after a sweep of SSL and a clear CHoCH, price retested the order block. I entered on the bullish reaction with TP levels set at 3.3974.
3. Bigger Picture (2H for Clarity): The engineered liquidity was swept cleanly, and momentum aligns with the continuation plan toward higher levels.
Both positions are running in sync, aiming for the same take-profit zone. I’ll monitor how price action develops overnight for potential adjustments or further refinement.
Let me know your thoughts—are you tracking XRP/USD, or are you focused on other pairs this week? Drop a comment below!
Bless Trading!
EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include:
Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures.
Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions.
In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low?
🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD).
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started.
🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback.
3️⃣
🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm).
🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move.
Economic Events for the Week