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POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON BRENT CRUDE OIL...SWING TRADEHey hey TradingView community!!! Hope you guys are doing amazing and having an amazing weekend! Just wanted to come make a post on a counter-trend trade I potentially see here on Brent Crude Oil. So put your seat belts on and let's dive in!! OK so first thing first. Oil has recently seen a huge run in price from 63-80 a barrel so obviously a dramatic increase in price & USUALLY when we see these very strong decisive moves in an asset there is usually a corrective period in prices because that is how supply & demand and how markets works :) OK so let's now go to the technical reasoning! 1. Weekly price overextended/ RSI overbought 2. Daily momentum of buyers slowing down/ Bearish Divergence forming 3. Sitting around a weekly fib level 4. Hourly's lining up with this bias also mainly momentum Very simple setup and potential here! May have to wait for that buyer to die out/ slow down a little more but keep eyes out for this move. Obviously trading against the trend is a little more "risky" but stay patient and let's see how it plays out! Cheers!
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by JosePips
Bitcoin - overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors! 📍 Context On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sideways range. The boundaries are marked with black lines. Buyer initiative is currently active. Targets: 108,952; 110,530; 111,980. 📊 Key Actions The seller attempted twice, on increased volume, to break down below the range, but both times the buyer brought the price back inside. Only seller wicks remained below the lower boundary. 🎯 Trade Idea 🔹 Look for long setups from 105 500 -104,622 or the 103,400–100,718 zone. There is no context for short trades at the moment. This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
XAU/USD 25 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high. Price is now trading within an established internal range. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Give It The Gas I've got a long Idea for the Henry Hub Natural Gas ETF, UNG. After rising in late-2024/early-2025, UNG fell again (Mar-Jun), but recently (significantly) crossed above the trendline from that down move. Time to look for a long position. But UNG is volatile - to reduce risk it's best to pick it up after a minor pullback. That seems to be happening now. One thing I find useful when looking at an ETF backed by a commodity is to look at the chart for the underlying commodity future. To be clear, I am NOT trading the future, only looking to it for (more) guidance. In this case, for UNG, I chose the Aug Henry Hub Natural Gas contract (NGQ2025), which TradingView provides 10-minute delayed date for; Here we see the trendline (light blue) is even stronger (i.e., more points of contact). In addition, the contract made a series of slightly higher lows (yellow line) before breaking through strong resistance at ~3.82 (a level which may now be providing support). Trendline breaks alone can be very flighty - they often don't work - so it helps to have other supporting factors (e.g., higher lows preceding, strong resistance breaks). And, not shown here but useful, UNG/NG is not overbought on the daily chart. Now one could take a long position here, with a stop below the trendline, but I prefer my knives to at least slow down before I catch them. Looking at the 4-hour chart for a reversal to enter; A reversal and close above 3.92 would give a good entry point (using UNG), with a tighter stop at ~3.7 (or ~16.25 on UNG). This is a "work in progress", so the actual trigger levels may change a bit. Or the whole setup could invalidate itself if the instrument(s) corrects back to at/below the trendline. For targets, natural gas has resistance at 19.1 and again at 24.0 - best to trail a stop as UNG's price rises, bringing it up as each zone is hit. For the long position, I anticipate an ITM option ~90 days out. I'm doing this in a taxable account, and for tax purposes UNG issues a K-1 to shareholders. I can do without the hassle. Option holders do not receive K-1's* (unless assigned), making tax reporting more routine. Time to step on the gas? *To the best of my knowledge - if any tax experts here know otherwise please drop a comment. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:UNGLong
by TheUncertainTrader
Long trade 🟢 Trade Journal Entry – Buyside Trade 📍 Pair: SOLUSDT 📅 Date: Monday, June 23, 2025 🕒 Time: 10:45 AM (NY Session AM) ⏱ Time Frame: Not specified (assumed 4Hr or intraday swing) 📈 Direction: Buyside 📊 Trade Breakdown: Metric Value Entry Price 134.93 Profit Level 148.19 (+9.83%) Stop Loss 130.20 (−3.51%) Risk-Reward Ratio 2.80 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: Range Expansion Setup: 4H Demand Tap / Rejection: Price respected a previously unmitigated bullish OB near $130 before printing consecutive higher lows. Volume Increase + Session Alignment: The NY session entry coincided with a volume surge and expansion candle, indicating breakout momentum.
Long
by davidjulien369
Everybody loves Gold Part 5Keeping it steady and reasonable Part 5 weekly path is as shown. Here's a breakdown of trading dynamics: 1. Expecting price to break past green line, level of significance (LOS) for continuation down 2. Price might bounce back for which; will be looking for a continuation from +50/+100 or +150pips to the downside 3. Will be looking for double tops/bottom along the way: Last week saw classic double top formed around level of significance (LOS) As always price action determines trades
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by PinchPips
Long trade 🟢 Trade Journal Entry – Buyside Trade 📍 Pair: BTCUSDT 📅 Date: Monday, June 23, 2025 🕒 Time: 10:00 AM (NY Session AM) ⏱ Time Frame: Not specified (assumed 4Hr or intraday swing) 📈 Direction: Buyside 📊 Trade Breakdown: Metric Value Entry Price 101,705.24 Profit Level 108,783.85 (+6.96% %) Stop Loss 99,579.47 (−2.09%) Risk-Reward Ratio 3.33 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: High-Conviction Buyside Play: Entry aligns with the broader BTCUSD bullish structure, supported by consistent higher-timeframe momentum. Liquidity Grab Below Key Low: Market swept downside liquidity near $99,600 before reversing sharply, indicating smart money accumulation. Stop level moved (2.86%)
Long
by davidjulien369
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Lose $100K Support?!On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 and is in its short-term descending channel. One can look for buying opportunities for Bitcoin from the channel bottom. If the resistance level is broken, the path to the rise and its reach to the level of $107,000 will be prepared for Bitcoin. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management will be more important in the cryptocurrency market. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Bitcoin has been in the spotlight again in recent days, especially as its price fluctuates within the psychologically important range of $101,000-$102,000 and its fundamental indicators are sending mixed signals. The first and perhaps most important element in Bitcoin’s fundamental analysis is the accumulation trend by large financial institutions and corporations. According to data published by websites such as CoinShares and the Financial Times, more than $87 billion worth of Bitcoin is currently held by companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, Block, and ETFs, which is approximately 3.2% of the total BTC supply in circulation. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has established itself as a store of value in the portfolios of professional investors, although there is still no consensus on its function as a “digital gold”. In this regard, analysts such as Román González of A&G have predicted that Bitcoin could reach the $200,000 range by the end of the year; on the other hand, some more conservative analysts such as Jacqui Clarke believe that Bitcoin still lacks measurable intrinsic value and should not be viewed solely as an alternative asset. This conflict of views shows the depth of complexity in analyzing Bitcoin. From the perspective of onchain, or intra-network data, the picture looks a little more cautious. The volume of active addresses last week was in the 1.0-1.1 million range, which is lower than in previous bullish periods (such as late 2021). Also, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index, which measures the potential profit potential of investors, fell slightly from 2.29 to 2.20, indicating that the market is somewhat cooling off from the short-term heat. Also, on June 22, more than 5,200 Bitcoins were removed from exchanges, which is usually a sign of long-term accumulation and a decrease in short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s behavior in the face of geopolitical crises shows signs of a change in the dominant market narrative. During the recent tension between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin fell by nearly 4%, unlike gold, which experienced significant growth. This challenges the assumption that Bitcoin is a “hedging” or “safe haven” asset and shows that BTC is still registered more as a risk-on asset in the minds of market participants. This is considered very important as investors look for tools to hedge inflation or protect against economic shocks. In terms of correlation with traditional markets, Bitcoin is also on a path to further integration with classic assets. The 30-day correlation index between Bitcoin and the S&P500 is now around 0.78, and academic studies predict that the correlation will grow to 0.87 at some point in 2024. This means that Bitcoin’s movements are more aligned than ever with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, interest rates, stock market conditions, and global liquidity flows. Therefore, in the current situation, the impact of US macro data or central bank decisions plays a decisive role in Bitcoin’s volatility. Finally, Bitcoin price prediction models in recent days also reflect this complexity. Websites such as Bitfinex, Changelly, and analysts from institutions such as Brave New Coin have estimated that Bitcoin could reach the $125,000-$135,000 range this summer if macroeconomic conditions remain stable, and even if institutional capital continues to flow and there are no macro crises, reaching $150,000 by the end of the year is not out of the question. However, such scenarios require maintaining the current level of liquidity in the market, the absence of drastic tightening measures by the Federal Reserve, and the control of geopolitical risks. In short, Bitcoin is in a situation where, on the one hand, its supporting fundamentals are stronger than ever; With institutional inflows, accumulation of long-term addresses, and reduction of inventory on exchanges. On the other hand, the market remains highly vulnerable to macroeconomic and political risks and continues to show volatile reactions. This situation has led to Bitcoin becoming not only a speculative tool or growth investment, but also gradually becoming a part of professional portfolios with a carefully composed risk management mix. Its medium-term outlook is positive, but with one important condition: stability in global inflation and continued institutional capital flows.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Is Alt season dead? - June 2025Let me start by saying, Youtube influencers are lying to you. The collective narrative (from those links shared with me) talk almost exclusively about the same set of narratives for triggering “alt season”: M2 money supply. The printer will be turned on any minute. The FED is going to cut rates, the market will then explode. Institutions are buying the dip! “Blackrock fills Ethereum long positions” etc A dollar collapse. The real season begins in 2026, stack now! It is the same rubbish time and time again. Rarely will one of those influencers << Look left << to tell you the News as it is written on the chart. Let me tell you the News… The highly anticipated "alt season," where alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) significantly outperform Bitcoin, faces considerable challenges to deliver the much awaited “alt season” where everything blows up. However I’ve long argued those days are behind us, we’re not going to see an “alt season” again, at least not in the sense many understand the term "alt season". Alt season refers mainly to those tokens that reside outside the top ten crypto tokens. The total market cap of this cohort outside the top 10 is referred to as INDEX:OTHERS total, as is shown in the main chart. Now I’ve long argued corrections for Ethereum to $700 and below, Litecoin to $20 and lower, generally legacy tokens should perform the worst during this bull market, that outlook does not change. Why so pessimistic? Headline 1 - Support and resistance It is that simple. look left. Each alt season closed a monthly candle above the monthly 7 SMA and monthly 10 SMA (Green areas) before getting underway. Not only has this not happened during this bull market, support from the rising channel has failed and if the current monthly candle closes as it (in 7 days), then past support shall confirm as resistance. This would mean a collapse back to the 2017 market top of circa $50 billion. Headline 2 - Bitcoin halving The truth is “alt season” began in May 2024, that is if you’re a believer in the halving cycles. If you’re a believer then you must accept this bull market comes to an end in 90 days. The orange vertical lines represent each Bitcoin halving, occurring in August 2016, June 2020, and lately May 2024. The so called “alt season” would follow the halving for a 518 day period. There is only 90 days left for alt tokens to do their stuff before this cycle comes to an end. However, influencers only seem to talk about how great 2026 is going to be and how now is the time to start stacking. Instead 2025 is really going to create a whole new number of bag holders of dead projects. Headline 3 - The number of circulating tokens In January 2017 there was 8885 tokens, the good ole days. June 2020, still only 19,500 tokens Fast forward to June 2025 and we have 17.45 million tokens. Utterly ridiculous. The sheer proliferation of alt coins, now numbering in the millions, creates an overwhelming supply that far outstrips demand. This fragmentation of liquidity means that even when some tokens see brief pumps, it's often selective with only a handful of projects having strong narratives or specific utility that truly thrive. The simple truth is the market must kill off millions of those dud projects to free liquidity to the few that matter. If you really must know where the money is going to come from that causes growth in the remaining winners, it is from the realisation that a number of those projects are dead. That includes projects such as Ethereum and Litecoin. Both those charts share an important distinction no one wants to talk or hear about. There are projects out there that’ll buck the trend, do you know which ones they are? Not everything will collapse to zero. Ww
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by without_worries
34
EURUSD -> Bullish Idea 22/06/2025(ICT x Volume Profile)OANDA:EURUSD 🎯 Bias: Bullish 🕒 Timeframe: H1 primary, H15 confirmation Happy sunday traders! Following President Trump’s strikes on Iran, I expect an initial bearish reaction in the Asian and London Sessions, then a bullish reaction in the NY sessions as sellers push the USD lower. However, the prevailing trend context remains bullish: the hourly chart has shifted structure (MSS) and broke structure to the upside. I anticipate a liquidity sweep below the recent lows, before a retracement into the 15-minute fair value gap (FVG) which aligns with the volume profile, then continuation higher to target the weak high and into the swing highs marked.
Long
by bobphamm
EURUSD| Weekly OutlookSame story as last week — still patiently waiting for the major engineered liquidity above to get cleared before considering any meaningful longs. That said, EU is currently offering a clean structure for short setups into the downside order block. Everything is lining up technically, but it’s important to note this is a counter-trend move — and personally, I’m not taking it. It’s tempting when structure looks this clean, but I know it’s not my proper approach. For me, the real play is still higher — waiting on that bull-side OB mitigation to align with the bigger picture narrative. Until then, I’ll let others chase while I sit on my hands. Pure discipline only. Bless Trading!
by Juicemannn
7