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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

EURGBP - How will BOE decisions affect the pound?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction due to the meeting of the Central Bank of England today, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the specified support range will pave the way for this currency pair to continue its decline Britain’s Treasury Secretary, Reeves, stated that it is still too early to make changes to economic forecasts following the U.S. election. He also expressed confidence that trade flows between the UK and the U.S. will continue under Trump’s presidency, noting that during Trump’s previous term, the two nations had a strong and constructive relationship. Reeves showed optimism about Britain’s role in shaping the global economic agenda. Meanwhile, the risk of a German government collapse appears more serious than ever. The German government has entered a new phase of political crisis that could potentially lead to the final breakdown of the ruling coalition. Last Friday, a document from Germany’s Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, was leaked, outlining his plans for economic reform in Germany. This document analyzes the economic challenges facing the country and offers proposals, such as corporate tax cuts and increased working hours. With internal tensions peaking, the likelihood of government collapse has risen. ECB Vice President De Guindos stated that the European Central Bank is committed to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and is increasingly confident in achieving the 2% inflation target. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 to 0.8%, down from the previous forecast of 1.1%. This revision was attributed to potential threats stemming from Trump’s tariff policies following his reelection.
Short
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver Vs FOMC?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the FOMC today, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, silver can be sold within the specified supply zone. World Bank analysts believe that silver is a precious metal worth monitoring in 2025. The World Bank has recently updated its commodity market forecasts. While gold is expected to maintain its strong performance within the broader market, analysts have forecasted weaker demand extending from next year through 2026. The analysts noted, “Demand for gold from central banks and the jewelry sector, which together constitute about two-thirds of global demand, is likely to decrease due to unprecedented high prices.” Nevertheless, the World Bank sees greater potential in silver, given expectations that rising demand and limited supply will help support prices. World Bank analysts further stated, “Silver demand is anticipated to increase steadily in the forecast horizon, driven by its dual financial and industrial uses.” With supply growth lagging behind the positive factors supporting demand, silver prices are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026, following an expected 20% increase in 2024. Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold by 2025, as it is currently priced well below its intrinsic value. Nomura believes that a second Trump administration would focus heavily on tariff and tax policies, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve will respond prudently to these changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, followed by a single cut in 2025, and then take a prolonged pause on further cuts.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies. Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations. George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked. According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
Nasdaq Outlook: 07-NOV-2024Good morning, traders! Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis. Compare my price action insights with your own charts and enhance your trading skills. #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Trading #Investing #DayTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #FinancialNews #WallStreet #NasdaqToday #NasdaqAnalysis #NasdaqTrading #StockMarketNews #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialMarkets #TradingTips #NasdaqForecast #MarketInsights #Nasdaq100 #TechStocks #GrowthStocks #IndexFunds #ETFs #StockMarketAnalysis #TradingStrategies #RiskManagement #InvestorEducation #FinancialLiteracy #EarningsSeason #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #MarketVolatility #GlobalMarkets
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by DrBtgar
TSLA: Insanely Bullish! What to Expect Next? | D & W charts.In our previous analysis, we identified that TSLA was looking for its 21-week EMA, a classic region of support, where a very good reversal signal materialized. Now, the price has resumed its previous uptrend, and we see it breaking through the most crucial resistance point at $265, which we also warned about in our last public study, the link to which is below this post. Now, let's update you on the key points to keep an eye on. Daily Chart (Left) Gap Closure: Tesla has closed a significant gap from July 2023 at $289.52, which could act as a resistance level. Remember that gaps work as magnets when tthe price reverses. This gap closure often signifies an area where the stock might face selling pressure as previous buyers look to exit. Support at $265.13: Previously a resistance level, this $265.13 area now serves as a future support based on the principle of polarity. Holding above this level would be a bullish signal, while a drop below might suggest weakness. EMA Support: The stock is trading above its 21-day EMA, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum in the near term. Weekly Chart (Right) Approaching Next Resistance at $299.29: The weekly chart shows the next significant resistance level at $299.29. A break and hold above this level could open up more upside, potentially attracting more bullish interest. EMA Support on Weekly: Similar to the daily, the 21-week EMA is supporting Tesla’s price, adding confidence for bullish traders. Conclusion: Tesla's chart shows bullish momentum with recent gap closure near $289.52 and support from the $265.13 level. Even if we see a top signal, the $265 area is supposed to be our next technical support level, and a pullback wouldn't ruin the bullish thesis to the $300 area - in fact, it would probably just be another buying opportunity, near a support level, when the R/R ratio is optimised. There is no technical evidence suggesting that it could correct for now, but we need to watch the price action very closely, as TSLA's price has just closed an important gap. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
Incoming 60% correction for ASML HoldingOn the above weekly chart price action has seen a strong 200% upward move since 2022. No doubt a move in part caused by the AI mania. Is now a good time to buy? Seeking alpha says “Buy the dip” “ASML has returned to growth after revenue declines, with flat revenue expected for 2024 and growth anticipated in 2025, driven by new EUV tools.” “Despite a 53% QoQ drop in net bookings, ASML's backlog remains strong at €36B, supporting a revised 2025 revenue outlook of €30-35B.” A quick Google leads to no shortage of “buy the dip” articles. But then again, Google is not what it once was, with many paid for bias articles are evident. The best News and outlook will always be the chart. On the above weekly chart: 1) Price action and RSI support failures. 2) Broken market structure. 3) Look left, support and resistance, red arrows. The 2021 market top confirms resistance in October 2024. This is a significant warning. 4) The bear flag. It is has not yet confirmed, but a breakout is evident. A back test would be ideal, towards $800 area. The flag forecasts a 60% correction to support. Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade, short from $800
NASDAQ:ASMLShort
by without_worries
5
Gold collapse imminent? 7hr chartPrice action on Gold since August as shown on the above 7hr chart. A Euphoric rally in the last 3 months has Gold bugs jubilant in celebration with a record 48% win from September 2011 (Ignore the 480% return of the S&P 500 in the same period). There are now messages aplenty calling for $5k and beyond. Who knows. One thing I do know, a common theme throughout the messages, people are euphoric. Market tops print with euphoria. Now this idea is not about who is wrong or who is right, congratulations if you've made a profit. The point of the post is to make sure profits are realised. A profit on paper is not a win and the bubble may now be about to pop. 90% of folks long on gold will not collect the recent gains. Why might the party be about to end? A few reasons.. 1) Price action support is broken. This is also true for RSI. 2) Throughout history RSI above 80 on the 3 week chart (below) has been a warning shot for extreme overbought conditions. Look left. Corrections between 20% and 50% are recorded. 3) Price action is at historical macro resistance (see 2 month chart below). Is it possible this time is different? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww 3 week 2 month
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by without_worries
27
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!This is an image of the original Video tutorial i made walking through XAU/USD Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
GBPJPY - Yen will continue its weakness?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The BRC retail report in the UK indicated that retail sales in October 2024 only grew by 0.3%, a significant drop compared to the 1.7% growth in September. This decline is attributed to consumers’ caution ahead of Black Friday promotions and school half-term holidays, which were delayed compared to usual. Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), stated, “After a strong start in autumn, October sales growth was disappointing. Part of this decline was due to the later timing of school half-term holidays, which reduced sales, but it is expected that November will show better performance.” She also noted that consumer sentiment has been affected by uncertainties surrounding future budgets and rising energy costs. According to the latest Citi/YouGov survey, British households’ inflation expectations for the coming year have reached 3.3%, and long-term household inflation expectations remain at 3.8%. Analysts at Citi Investment Bank suggest that these figures indicate that despite efforts by the Bank of England to curb inflation, public inflation expectations remain high. In Japan, the government has designed a support plan for the country’s semiconductor industry that involves leveraging assets such as its shares in NTT, with the program spanning several years. Instead of direct subsidies, the plan includes a multi-stage approach. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers receive subsidies while moving towards mass production, and once they reach this stage, the government shifts to other forms of support such as private sector investments and financial guarantees, extending this process until around 2030. Sakurai, a former board member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), announced that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates again in the coming months, with January being a potential timing for this action. The aim is to increase short-term interest rates to 1.5% or 2% by the end of Ueda’s term in early 2028.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Is a Trend Reversal Coming?OANDA:EURUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current Price: 1.07962 Potential for a Bullish Reversal: EUR/USD is showing strong signs of a possible bullish reversal across multiple timeframes, marked by key technical indicators: • Breakout of Descending Channel Upper Trendline • Weekly Major Support Zone • Potential Double Bottom Formation • Emerging Bullish Divergence Descending Channel Breakout: The price has broken above the descending channel’s upper trendline (highlighted in the red circle on the chart), turning this line into a weaker resistance zone. Weekly Major Support Zone: We anticipate that price may retest the major weekly support level at 1.07421. This zone could serve as a solid foundation for a double bottom formation, combined with a bullish divergence. If this occurs, it could present an optimal entry point for buyers. Top of Trading Range: Should price rally, the next significant resistance lies at the top of the trading range, around 1.08635. Given the strength of this resistance, we might see a pullback at this level before further movement upward. Price Target: Based on technical indicators and chart patterns, the final target stands around the psychological level of 1.10000. Key Levels to Watch: • Support: 1.07421 • Resistance: 1.08635 • Target: 1.10000 Stay tuned and happy trading!
Long
by SpicyPips
XAU/USD 06 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 31 October 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal. Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high. We should however remain mindful that Daily TF is showing very early signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. Therefore, price could potentially print a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As outlined in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 05 November 2024, I mentioned that price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price printed to this expectation, successfully targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS. While price has not yet printed a bullish CHoCH, it has moved up to the premium of 50% EQ, allowing me to confirm the internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to target the weak internal low. Note: Given the ongoing Presidential elections, the Fed’s softer stance, and heightened geopolitical tensions, price is expected to remain highly volatile. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK