Gold (XAUUSD) - What Will Stop The Gold Bull Run?It seems like everyone is piling on the gold gravy train as it looks to make new highs in the coming weeks.
With a high level of volatility entering the marketplace over the next two weeks, expect sharp market swings on the intraday timeframes and don't get caught up!
Rate announcements on Wednesday, next week will be the determining factor on whether many will fly to safety or risk buying gold at the current pricing.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
EUR/USD - Tickling Old HighsParity in the euro can't come without a MAJOR event happening.
In the meantime, it would be in the market makers best interests to prop up the euro short term, giving the illusion that due to euro being 'stronger' than it was a few months ago, it's the best time to invest in Europe bla bla bla...
Once many of the huge funds, whale traders etc placed their stops below major sellside liquidity pools, that's when the rug gets pulled
Pulled all the way down to parity!
The question is, what news event will it take for this scenario to pan out?
UPDATE SWING TRADE SETUP EURUSDThe two major news events have come and gone and the long setup on EU is not only still valid but we have gotten confirmation with a bullish choch
I'm looking for price to react bullish on the lower timeframe from the fair value gap or the 2H OB. This is to get the best possible entry with a relatively smaller SL.
There is always a chance that the setup won't work out however in my opinion this has a small chance of failing.
Main target is the daily high and a longer term target is December's high unless price action changes bearish.
Hope this analysis helps and remember to always follow your rules and keep good risk management
GBP/USD - Dollar Weakening = Stronger PoundWith a strong rally in the dollar index when Donald Trump was chosen to be president, it caused a lot of foreign currency to weaken. GBP being one of them.
Time and time again, we have seen lower lows form and you just have to ask yourself when will this ever change.
The good news is, short-term bullish runs to inefficiencies is still a high possibility going into the volatile periods of next week and the week after next.
Long trade
Entry 1Hr TF
Buyside trade idea
Wed 29th Jan 25
9.00 pm
NY Session PM
Entry 1min TF
Entry 31.680
Profit level 32.775 (3.46%)
Stop level 31.560 (0.38%)
RR 9.12
Reason: Observing price action since the 28th of January and previous trades undertaken was the underlining decision for another buyside entry.
Dollar Index - I Like The Sound Of 106For the next two weeks, expect high levels of volatility in the marketplace as anytime interest rate announcements happen, wild movements up and down tends to follow up with that.
We will see some form of market structure shift in the following weeks. The question is will it be during China's bank holiday or after when the UK is releasing their interest rate figures....
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Will Rise SoonBond prices have been getting slaughtered for several of months and with the uncertainty around Donald Trumps potential tariffs being placed on China is causing the market to rangebound.
Although the market has been on a freefall since September, there are periods where you are able to eek out some profits if your willing to go against the grain, especially when the technical align up perfectly.
US 10Y Yields - Chasing Lower YieldsAssessing the weekly range, from low to high, it is clear to me that the yields is still trading in a premium and with major liquidity pools attacked to the upside, it's only a matter of time we see a cooldown period.
Below 4.469% is regarded as a discount and it might take several of weeks to pan out but I would like to see the weekly bearish consequent encroachment @ 4.735% respected with 4.809% being the last line of defence.
$LCXUSD – Textbook Retest Before a MAJOR BreakoutMIGHTY Bull Flag Flying at Full Mast CRYPTO:LCXUSD COINBASE:LCXUSD
Please maximize the daily chart!
I've left them all here so you can quickly see how this will evolve but all you need to see is the daily chart in its full frame and your brain will explode!
This example needs to go in a book. Have you ever seen one so beautiful?
Hurry, the breakout has already begun. I tried to get this up as fast as I could. It was completely quiet when I found it 30 minutes ago. I've had my own things to consider.
But now I have time to tell you - you'd have to hate money not to buy this! (No, that isn't investment advice, it is investment admonishment! With love!) Look with your eyeballs! Maybe there will be a pull back for you to buy maybe there won't be it still looks quiet on the daily chart but I don't think that's gonna last more than a few more minutes...
Perfect accumulation structure after a massive rally, confirming a higher low on the weekly chart. This pattern suggests (clearly) that the pullback is complete, and the continuation is imminent.
✔ Bullish Retest of Breakout Zone – After a parabolic move in December, price has retraced in a controlled manner and is now bouncing off strong support.
✔ Higher Low Structure Forming – The market has refused to make a lower low, signaling accumulation and uptrend continuation.
✔ Trendline Support Holding Firm – Buyers are stepping in exactly where they should, confirming a bullish continuation setup.
✔ Volume Showing Accumulation – No panic selling, just steady absorption before expansion.
✔ Compression Before Expansion – The price action is tightening, indicating an imminent breakout once liquidity kicks in. That was then now is now!
Trade Plan 🎯
📍 Breakout Confirmation: Above $0.26 - $0.28, expecting rapid acceleration toward $0.34 - $0.40. Better hurry this is old news!
📍 Key Support: $0.216 - $0.225 remains the final defense for bulls.
📍 Upside Targets: If momentum picks up, LCX could revisit $0.50+ and will probably go into price discovery with new all-time highs
This is the bottom. If LCX clears resistance, these prices will never be seen again. A weekly breakout is in the making—time to pay attention.
XAUUSD - Gold after the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for buying opportunities after a price correction. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio.
During its meeting last night, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.5% range, signaling that it has no immediate plans to lower them. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, emphasized that the U.S. economy continues to experience strong growth, with a resilient labor market. According to him, current interest rates are no longer as restrictive to economic activity as they once were. He stated that the central bank prefers to see more concrete evidence of sustained inflation reduction before making any adjustments, while also assessing the economic impact of Donald Trump’s policies in areas such as tariffs, immigration, and taxation.
In its statement, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation remains “somewhat high,” but it omitted previous references to progress toward the 2% target. Powell clarified that this change does not signal a shift in policy but rather reflects the need for greater confidence in the persistence of inflation’s downward trend.
The Fed Chair also stressed that the central bank cannot accurately predict the impact of Trump’s new policies before they are implemented. He noted that potential tariffs and immigration changes could have conflicting effects: they might contribute to inflation by raising costs, while also acting as a deflationary force by improving productivity.
Powell made it clear that a rate cut in March 2025 is “unlikely,” and future decisions will depend entirely on economic data, particularly inflation and employment indicators. If Trump’s trade policies or labor shortages caused by the expulsion of migrants unexpectedly drive inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may not only delay rate cuts but could even consider raising rates instead.
In response to these remarks, Trump criticized Powell, accusing him of failing to control inflation. The U.S. President stated on Truth Social that his administration would curb inflation by ramping up domestic energy production, reducing regulations, balancing international trade, and revitalizing American manufacturing. Meanwhile, Powell told reporters that he has not been in contact with Trump recently and would not respond to criticisms from the White House. Trump also accused the Federal Reserve of focusing on issues like climate change, diversity, equity, and gender ideology instead of prioritizing economic matters.
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates within a narrow range throughout 2025 unless there is a significant shift in inflation. He highlighted that rising costs in the services and food sectors remain key economic challenges, which will likely limit any major policy changes in the near term.
Copper - Markets are waiting for new moves to start?!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. An upward correction of copper will provide us with a good risk-reward selling position. If the downtrend continues, we can buy copper in the next demand zone.
The Monthly Metals Index (MMI) for copper remained largely range-bound, experiencing a slight decline of 0.65% from December to January. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to react to the new U.S. administration and potential shifts in trade policies.
Ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, copper prices on the Comex exchange began breaking out of their previous range. By mid-January, copper prices had reached their highest levels since early November. This movement was likely driven by traders anticipating the impact of potential tariffs, some of which could affect the copper market. In contrast, prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw only modest gains, creating a temporary price divergence between the two exchanges.
Typically, Comex and LME copper prices move in tandem, making any significant deviations between them noteworthy. Since 2019, the two markets have shown a correlation of 99.76%, with Comex prices averaging a $19 per ton premium over LME prices. However, by January 14, this premium had widened to $402 per ton. It remains uncertain whether this premium will persist in the coming years or revert to historical levels, as seen in previous instances.
Historically, such price divergences have been temporary. One notable example was a short squeeze on Comex in late May, which marked the end of the Q2 2024 rally in base metals. During this period, the price gap between LME and Comex surged to $688 per ton, with Comex copper prices reaching a record high of $11,257 per ton.
However, this spread quickly narrowed due to shifts in trade flows toward the U.S. market. Although Comex copper contracts attract similar market participation as LME, lower inventory levels make them less liquid. Consequently, when stockpiles decrease, Comex prices become particularly susceptible to sudden surges.
Another factor contributing to price divergence was the October port strike, which led to a significant increase in Comex prices. Before the three-day strike began, Comex copper prices had already risen sharply, pushing the spread to $292 per ton until mediators brokered a resolution.
Market volatility remains a key risk for copper prices as traders await more details on which products and countries will be affected by new trade barriers. This uncertainty could either drive further price increases or trigger sharp declines if reality fails to align with market expectations.
Some of the tariffs proposed by President Trump are likely to serve as negotiation tactics, meaning they may not be fully implemented or could be abandoned if alternative trade agreements are reached. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a phased approach to tariff implementation, which may help mitigate market reactions.
A closer look at Trump’s latest stance on China indicates a willingness to de-escalate tensions and increase engagement. However, his previous trade policies were highly aggressive, often involving heavy tariffs on Chinese imports.
XAU/USD 30 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 27/01/2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to analysis dated 21 January 2025.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade continue bearish to complete it's pullback phase. Technically price should trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,786.060.
It would be useful to remember that Daily TF swing and internal range are bullish.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 28 January 2025.
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis and alternative scenario that as H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, it would come at no surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS to assist H4 TF in it's pullback phase.
This is how price printed. Strong internal low was targeted with price printing a bearish iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, show reaction at either premium of 50% EQ, or M15/H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,730.560.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate.
Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration.
Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE.
Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH).
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS.
🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones.
🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
USD/CAD levels heading into US GDPThe strong rally from the October low has entered a sideways range, and prices have seen failed attempts to break above a prior double-top high ~1.4468. A bearish pinbar also formed yesterday beneath the double top and the daily RSI (2) is also near the overbought zone.
The 4-hour chart shows a 2-bar bearish reversal at the range highs, and until we see a breakout accompanied with a worthy headline, the bias is to fade into moves below 1.4470 with for some mean reversion back towards the 2020 weekly-close high at 1.4332
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
XAU/USD: Potential Reaction at Supply Zone*On the 4H timeframe, XAU/USD has shown a clear CHoCH (Change of Character), with the previous Higher Low (HL) being broken, taking out Buy-Side Liquidity near the highs. Price is now trading within a supply zone, aligning with bearish order flow.
On the 30M timeframe (see chart):
• A CHoCH has been identified within the supply area, signaling a potential shift in direction.
• Price looking to clear the inducement (IDM) before tapping into the zone, strengthening the likelihood of a sell-off.
• I’m anticipating a reaction and continuation to the downside, targeting lower liquidity levels around $2,730.500.
Key Points:
• Bearish Bias from the 4H Supply Zone.
• Liquidity grab + CHoCH on the 30M confirms bearish intent.
• Targeting the lows near $2,730.500 for a high-probability trade setup.
Trade Idea:
Wait for confirmation within the 30M supply zone (e.g., a lower timeframe entry such as a CHoCH or breaker structure). Maintain discipline and proper risk management.
What do you think about this setup? Drop your thoughts below!
Bless Trading!
Short trade
15min TF overview
Sellside trade idea
Wed 29th Jan 25
8.16 am
LND to NY Session AM
Entry 1min TF
Entry 31.610
Profit level 31.060 (1.74%)
Stop level 31.650 (0.06%)
RR 13.75
Reason: observing the last 3 trades
during the LND to NY Session
29th Jan 2025.
Price reached a pivotal supply
zone indicative of a sellside trade.
Target base of the new range.
1min TF overview
ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record highThe ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
EURAUD LONG Market structure Bullish on HTFs DW
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.66500
H4 Touching EMA
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.01
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
NZDCHF SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.51500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.97
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.