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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

XAUUSD - Gold will reach $2,700!?Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of failure of the drawn trend line, we can witness the continuation of downward trend to demand zone, and in that zone, we can buy with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the upward movement of gold and its reaching the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. Gold price volatility remains high as the precious metal reacts to changes in geopolitical instability caused by the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. However, Nitesh Shah, head of commodity research and macroeconomics at WisdomTree, still predicts that gold's upward trend will continue in 2025. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Shah stated that he expects the US dollar to depreciate in 2025, which will benefit gold prices. He added that although Trump's policies can help strengthen the dollar at the beginning of the year, it will be difficult to maintain this trend; Because the government budget deficit will continue. "Most likely, debt will increase and that should put downward pressure on the dollar," he said. Meanwhile, Shah believes the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting policies could help lower bond yields, another factor driving gold prices higher. He said in his recent research note: "Now that we are back in the cycle of interest rate cuts, bond yields have fallen and investors are ready to buy gold again." Although Shah is optimistic about gold, in his opinion, the price of this precious metal will have limits to growth in the coming year. He predicts that gold prices will reach around $2,850 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2024. "The current situation is still relatively positive for gold," Shah said. "Originally, I was projecting $3,000, but according to my updated modeling, to reach that goal, bond yields would need to fall significantly from current levels." On the other hand, the Bank of America (BofA) in its recent report has pointed out four key aspects of the future US government policies that can reduce the demand for gold in the short term. These factors include the increase in interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar. However, these negative factors do not in any way affect Bank of America's positive long-term outlook for gold, with gold prices expected to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Deregulation: Deregulation policies in the energy and financial services sectors could increase interest rates, which would make gold less attractive. Fiscal policy: Broader and longer tax cuts could boost short-term economic growth and push interest rates higher, posing challenges for gold. Tariffs: The increase in tariffs on China and other major countries can lead to pressure on the currencies of emerging markets, and this may reduce gold purchases by central banks. Fed policy: If economic growth and tariffs push up inflation, the Fed may stop the rate-cutting cycle, which would reduce the appeal of gold as a safe haven. Impact on gold demand: In the short term, there is a possibility of reducing the desire of investors to buy gold due to the mentioned policies. Central banks in emerging countries may reduce gold purchases due to currency pressures from tariff risks. The long-term outlook remains positive: Structural demand from central banks and strategic investors underpins a positive long-term outlook for gold. The attractiveness of gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, economic instabilities and possible inflationary pressures remains. Conclusion: Although near-term policies under the incoming US administration, including stronger economic growth, higher inflation and a stronger dollar, pose significant headwinds for gold, Bank of America maintains its forecast of $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025. . This long-term optimism stems from structural and cyclical factors that support gold demand in a challenging policy environment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPAUD - England will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continued movement in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to go down to the demand zones. GBPAUD buy positions can be looked for in two demand zones. Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports starting January 20, the day his presidency begins. In response, China’s embassy in Washington stated on Monday that neither the United States nor China would win a trade war. Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson, said in a statement: “China believes that economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States is inherently mutually beneficial.” In Australia, the monthly CPI index remained unchanged at 2.1% year-on-year in October, falling short of expectations for an increase to 2.5%. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021. Core inflation indicators provided mixed signals, with CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel dropping from 2.7% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the trimmed mean CPI, the preferred measure of core inflation, rose from 3.2% to 3.5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors. Michelle Marquardt, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, highlighted that declines in electricity and fuel prices had a significant impact on annual CPI. She emphasized the importance of core inflation measures like the trimmed mean in offering deeper insights into inflation trends amid significant price fluctuations. In the UK, according to the latest Reuters poll, house prices are expected to rise by 3.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. These figures show slight adjustments compared to September’s survey. In London, house prices are projected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. October inflation data for the UK exceeded expectations. Headline inflation rose to 2.3%, while core inflation unexpectedly increased to 3.3%, and services inflation reached 5.0%. Rising energy costs and a slowdown in declining goods prices were the primary drivers of this inflation increase. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in December and cut rates by 25 basis points at its February meeting next year. Overall, the UK’s economic performance appears slightly better than the Eurozone, though it still struggles to achieve sustainable growth and economic recovery. The UK’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.6 in November, with the new orders component falling to 47.0. The services PMI also declined to 50.0. These figures suggest that the Bank of England faces challenges not only in controlling inflation but also in improving economic activity, production, and employment. As a result, the central bank is likely to adopt a cautious and measured approach in its policy decisions, at least for the next month.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Brent - oil waiting for regional stability!Brent oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, we will look for positions to buy oil. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. He expressed gratitude to French President Emmanuel Macron and emphasized that Israel did not initiate this war, nor were the Lebanese people seeking conflict. Biden stated that Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon but stressed that lasting security cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield. The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices face short-term risks that could push them to around $80 per barrel in the first half of 2025, assuming Iranian oil supply drops by 1 million barrels per day due to stricter sanctions. In contrast, the bank expects medium-term risks to Brent prices to tilt downward due to high spare capacity in the market. Goldman Sachs also estimated that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 if a 10% tariff is imposed or OPEC increases its supply in 2025. Separately, Bloomberg reported that China’s small and private refineries are paying higher prices for Iranian oil due to reduced shipments and fewer offers. These refineries have been purchasing light Iranian crude for December delivery at smaller discounts compared to ICE Brent benchmarks. Limited shipping availability and delays have constrained Iran’s oil exports to China. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a meeting with OPEC’s Secretary-General, stated that Russia intends to strengthen its cooperation with OPEC. Novak highlighted that the energy market remains under significant pressure, with price volatility being one of the key challenges. He stressed the importance of closer collaboration between Russia and OPEC to address these issues, asserting that joint efforts can contribute to greater stability in the energy market. Novak also revealed that Russia is preparing to lift its gasoline export ban, with the necessary documentation expected to be finalized soon, although no exact timeline was provided. He pointed to the market’s balance achieved through OPEC+ actions and quota implementation, emphasizing the importance of continued measures to ensure stability. According to the latest JODI data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 5.75 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months. This rise in exports likely resulted from reduced direct crude oil consumption for power generation as the country’s hottest months came to an end. JODI data showed that direct crude burning fell by 296,000 barrels per day in September, reaching approximately 518,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw a slight decrease in oil production in September, down by 17,000 barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day. Refinery throughput in the country reached 2.756 million barrels per day in September, the highest in four months and 35,000 barrels per day higher than in August. This production level aligns with Saudi Arabia’s summer commitment to maintain output at “around 9 million barrels per day,” consistent with OPEC+ cuts and a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have postponed their planned production increases from December 2024 to January 2025. The group now plans to begin increasing supply in January, initially by 180,000 barrels per day for the first month. Saudi Arabia is expected to deliver less crude oil to China, the world’s largest oil importer, in December. Trade sources told Reuters last week that weak demand in China has prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce its shipments to the country.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - The new Treasury Secretary will weaken the dollar?!The USDCHF currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone, and sell in the form of scalps with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted in a recent report that the dollar is likely to remain stable through the end of the year, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December. While markets remain divided on the likelihood of a rate cut next month, ING anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction. Turner suggested that such a move, coupled with potential seasonal weakness, could weigh negatively on the dollar. However, amid geopolitical uncertainties and the stronger performance of the U.S. economy compared to the Eurozone, the dollar is expected to remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets. According to the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, “the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months reached its lowest point in November.” The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, released last night, revealed that some policymakers believe the pace of rate cuts could accelerate if economic activity declines or the labor market weakens. Conversely, some officials warned that persistent inflation might necessitate halting the easing cycle and maintaining rates at restrictive levels. Many policymakers highlighted uncertainty about the neutral rate, emphasizing the need for a gradual reduction in monetary restrictions. Scott Bennett, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that a weak dollar policy could become a cornerstone of Trump’s second administration. In a letter published earlier this year by Bennett’s hedge fund, he argued that Trump is more likely to pursue a dollar-weakening strategy than rely on tariffs. Bennett stated that tariffs tend to drive inflation and strengthen the dollar, which conflicts with efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing. Bennett predicted that a weaker dollar early in Trump’s second term could enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industrial production. He argued that a weaker dollar, coupled with cheap and abundant energy, could fuel economic growth. This perspective diverges from Wall Street’s current consensus, which leans toward a stronger dollar. Bennett remarked that dollar strengthening might only occur later in Trump’s term if efforts to onshore production prove successful. He also pointed to the constraints imposed by tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and budget deficits, which he believes hinder Trump’s economic objectives. Bennett suggested that focusing on deliberate currency devaluation could simultaneously achieve GDP growth, fiscal improvement, and stock market gains—at least in nominal terms. Bennett stressed that targeting a weaker dollar against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen could yield more impactful results. He even suggested that such a strategy could allow China to claim it had avoided U.S. tariffs, presenting it as a “win.” Bennett’s statements carry significant weight given his new role as Treasury Secretary. He also briefly referenced the concept of Bretton Woods 3, noting that while it is not currently a primary scenario, conditions for its realization are in place. Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel stated that Switzerland benefits from a flexible inflation framework that enables it to respond more effectively to economic shocks. He noted that while the Swiss franc is recognized as a safe-haven currency, this very characteristic can lead to appreciation during global recessions, which may harm Switzerland’s economy. The SNB remains committed to price stability, which Schlegel identified as a key factor in the country’s economic success. He also did not rule out the possibility of a return to negative interest rates.
Long
by Ali_PSND
SNEK: Adapted tools for Regime filtering & SystematisationYou should never rely solely on one tool when trading, think of trading as putting together a jigsaw. You are looking to form a picture. The more tools at your disposal allow you to form this jigsaw and make better, more informed decisions. Understand these concepts: - Orderflow - Momentum - Trend-following - Volatility - Time - Price Here's the #SNEK SNEK/USDT chart leveraging a few of my tools: - Momentum (Adapted RSI w/ Multi-Crypto Regime Detection) - Trend-following (SMA RF) - Volatility, Time, Momentum, & Trend are packaged in a third strategy with the long/short signals... Systematising our trading. Believe in something.
CRYPTO:SNEKUSD
by igreycrypto
XAU/USD 27 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Yesterday's analysis and bias dated 26 November 2024 remains the same. Price Action Analysis: Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low. A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310. Alternative Scenario: The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
6
NZDUSD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTF 30 Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi Weekly Rejection at AOi There is a strong weekly support level which was recently broken, Looking at a potential retest of that zone Daily Rejection at AOi Previous Structure point Daily Around Psychological Level 0.59000 H4 EMA retest H4 Candlestick rejection Levels 6.74 Entry 100% REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability : Manage Your Risk : Be Patient : Every Moment Is Unique : Rinse, Wash, Repeat! : Christ is King
Short
by mobbie_zw