EUR/USD - Parity Might Come Sooner Than You RealiseHappy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on EUR/USD as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Fundamentals will play a strong role in determining whether we see 1 to 1 with the dollar but for the time being, short term market movements to the upside can be beneficial as it goes against the longer term bearish narrative
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
GBP/USD - What Will It Take...?Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on GBPUSD as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
3 consecutive 6-month candles has closed bearish, whilst respecting the SIBI and attacking short term highs.
Short term plays to the upside utilising the 1-min timeframe is possible but in the grand scheme of the bias, which is bearish, I look to target 1.12287.
This could take several months to years but there is no solid positive fundamentals to give me the confidence that the UK economy will improve any time soon.
XAU/USD 23 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 January 2025, however, CHoCH positioning has changed, bringing it closer to current price action.
Previous analysis has been met. Following price printing bearish CHoCH, price has printed a further bullish iBOS. This has significantly narrowed the internal range.
Price did not trade into either discount of 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, however, on this occasion I will remain systematic in my approach and revisit later.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with s blue dotted line.
It would be useful to remember that Daily TF swing and internal range are bullish.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per yesterday's analysis, price printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, however, you will note I have marked the bearish CHoCH and bullish BOS in red. This is because pullback depth was not sufficient as price did not retrace to either discount (or anywhere near) of 50% EQ or M15 demand zone, therefore, I will monitor and continue to reevaluate as price prints.
Price has printed a higher high with a further bearish CHoCH.
We are now trading within an established internal structure which I will continue to evaluate.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,763.435
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAGUSD - Silver Awaiting Higher Numbers?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving within its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we could see the channel bottom. A consolidation above $31 will provide us with a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell with a risk-reward ratio.
South West Pinnacle Exploration Ltd JV has announced plans to commence exploration for copper, gold, and silver in Block 22B in Oman. The company has signed a concession agreement for this block, which is believed to hold significant potential for further mineral discoveries.
Despite some challenges, Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, holds a more optimistic view on silver due to its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. He stated, “In 2024, increased industrial demand contributed to a physical deficit in the silver market. Sectors such as electronics and renewable energy, especially photovoltaic (solar) technologies, played a major role in driving this demand.”
Hansen predicts that steady industrial demand will keep silver in a supply deficit heading into 2025. This deficit could be further exacerbated by rising financial or “paper demand” through financial instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). (“Paper demand” refers to financial transactions without physical backing, such as futures, options, or ETFs, as opposed to physical commodity purchases.)
Hansen also forecasts that silver will continue to outperform gold, expecting the gold-to-silver ratio to decline from the current level of 88 to around 75. His positive outlook on silver aligns with his broader perspective on the commodities market, where he sees greater potential for metals linked to the electrification of the global economy compared to those tied to construction.
He elaborated: “Among industrial metals, we maintain our long-term positive outlook on those that support the energy transition, particularly copper and aluminum. These metals are crucial for investments in power grids and the rapid expansion of renewable energy installations, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. On the other hand, we see limited potential for metals like iron ore and steel, which are heavily reliant on construction sector demand.”
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China, which escalated early in Trump’s presidency, appear to be easing. Many major companies, including Nike, Amazon, and Apple, stand to suffer significant losses if tariffs are increased. On the other hand, China has indicated that it is prepared to take retaliatory measures against any new tariffs, which could push Trump toward negotiation rather than confrontation.
In response to Trump’s threat of imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated: “China is willing to work with the United States to promote the sustainable and healthy development of economic and trade relations.”
GBP/NZD - Trade Idea.Long for potential long positions at 2.1600.
Why?.. At this Phycological level we can see previously that we have had large buying pressure added at this level. To support this we can see multiple Imbalances left after price sky rocketed.
Currently price is falling will multiple market jumps insinuating the continuation of Bearish movements for the next few days.
I would like to see price come down into the Demand zone at the suggested level. This shows me price is at a Discounted Rate. As long as price respects the Previous Low then we are still Bullish on the Long Term.
Stop loss levels are below the Daily TF Imbalance. Im risking 130 Pips for 730 Pips in return.
Take Profit levels are taking out Buy Side Liquidity
Nasdaq market analysis: 23-Jan-2025Good morning. Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis and educational insights for price action traders.
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EURUSD 23 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback.
🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure).
🔹Currently price is within a 4H FLIP zone that caused the BOS. Which could keep price bullish to target the weak INT high.
3️⃣
🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply.
🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price created a bullish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback phase.
🔹We didn’t mitigate any supply zone to initiate the Swing Pullback Phase yet so we could continue bullish.
🔹Price is currently within the 4H FLIP zone and at the INT Structure extreme.
🔹The last defined demand zone within the INT structure failed and there is a probability that the INT structure could turn bearish to fulfill the BOS requirement for a Pullback Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is still bullish until we have a confirmed bearish iBOS to initiate the Pullback Phase.
🔹Longs: As the demand failed, I’ll be waiting for a shift in the OF to bullish and demand to start holding to target the Weak INT High.
🔹Shorts: Will be waiting for bearish iBOS for pullback phase.
Conflicting signals for the S&P 500 just off its record highThe S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Dow Jones (March 2025) - Trump Has Dow Jones In A Headlock!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the Dow Jones continuous contract and YMH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
With S&P 500 & Nasdaq frontrunning Dow Jones, a close eye must be kept on YM as it might eb the first symbol out of the three stock indexes that decides to capitulate. If that occurs, there's a high chance the others will follow suite.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - AI Advancement Enables Higher PricesHappy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the Nasdaq continuous contract and NQH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
With Trump supporting the technology sector, investing $500bn into AI development recently, it goes hand in hand with booking all-time high prices.
The question is, will the run continue?
If it doesn't, what could be the reason why??
War?
Famine??
Cybersecurity Threats???
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Clock Is Ticking For $7,000 ES!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the S&P 500 continuous contract and ESH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Tech stocks have been rallying since trump came into office and it doesn't seem to have a end in sight.
They say the trend is your friend until it isn't.
Aiming for previous all-time highs until proven otherwise.
Dollar Index - Donald Trump Made America Great Again!.... Whilst destroying economies world wide!
Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the dollar index as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
All eyes are on interest rates as lower rates will reduce the chance for dollar to chase higher yields.
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Falling Off A Cliff! Happy New Year Traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on T-Bond Futures as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias, especially when comparing the strong inverse correlation to Gov 10y yields.
Countries like the UK are suffering as their prices for their bonds are being sold at extreme losses in order to prop up their restrictive policies.
When will it end..?
US 10Y Yields - Is 5% Yields A Real Possibility? Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on Government Bond Yields as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Here, we look into the technical and psychological elements as to why 5% might not be as soon as you think...
USDCAD - 9 Jan 2025 SetupUSDCAD Market structure are still Bullish on the H4 timeframe and now breaking ema's on H1 means the market will continuing their trend. Spotted demand area (Green Rectangle).its the first demand area on 2025.
Entry Position : Long
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly below demand area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
AUDJPY - 13 Jan 2025 SetupAUDJPY Breaking down a market structure on hourly timeframe. Spotted supply area on the H4 Chart (Red Rectangle). its the supply area after Ema's False bullish breakout.
Entry Position : Short
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly above demand area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
USDJPY - 16 Jan 2025 SetupUSDJPY Market structure are breaking down a bullish structure and now in bearish mode on H1 timeframe. Spotted supply area (RedRectangle). its the first supply area after a long bullish run.
Entry Position : Short
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly above supply area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
EURJPY - 16 Jan 2025 SetupEURJPY Market structure are breaking down and making bearish structure on H4 timeframe. Spotted supply area (Red Rectangle) that making a new low and breaking our ema's.
Entry Position : Short
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly above supply area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team