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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

XAUUSD - Gold will stabilize above $2700?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Losing the bottom of the channel will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. The gold market had a strong start to the first full trading week of 2025. However, as the week progressed, optimism among traders grew, with predictions indicating a potential rally in gold prices ahead of Trump’s second presidential term. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious about upcoming developments. Rich Checkan, the president and COO of “International Assets Strategies,” believes: “Unless there are any major disruptions during Monday’s inauguration ceremony, I expect gold prices to remain relatively unchanged next week. Market participants are waiting for more clarity on President Trump’s economic policies and their impact on key economic variables. However, one week is insufficient to see tangible effects, and a longer timeframe is needed for better evaluation.” Bart Melek, the managing director and head of commodity strategy at “TD Securities,” highlighted the potential for higher tariffs and their inflationary effects, predicting a slight dip in gold prices. He stated: “If the new president addresses tariffs, signaling higher inflation, and the Federal Reserve takes a more serious stance on its inflation target, gold prices could decline moderately.” At the beginning of 2025, gold is trading near $2,700 per ounce, while Bitcoin has approached the $100,000 threshold, placing both assets at the center of attention in emerging markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that a correction in stock markets could drive gold prices above $4,000 this year. He remarked: “Gold reaching $4,000 will eventually happen. The unlimited supply of fiat currencies and the limited supply of gold, similar to Bitcoin, make this likely. However, my concern is that a natural and modest correction in the stock market, which is currently overvalued, could push gold to such levels.” McGlone pointed out that the ratio of stock market value to U.S. GDP is around 2.2x — an unprecedented figure in the last 100 years. He emphasized that even a 10% correction in the stock market could provide the necessary momentum for gold prices to surge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's new decisions!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has left its descending channel. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. In recent days, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, and Treasury yields have also increased. These developments are primarily driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s promises to raise tariffs, reduce corporate taxes, and deregulate industries have sparked concerns about rising inflation, which was already persistent even before these policies were implemented. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy appears robust, with strong labor market performance in November and December, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to accelerate interest rate cuts. According to projections, investors anticipate that interest rates will decrease by approximately 0.4% by December 2025. This expectation persists despite reports suggesting the new U.S. administration will implement tariff hikes gradually and December inflation data came in lower than expected. The U.S. Tax Foundation estimates that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from other countries, the average tariff rate would climb to 17.7%. This would represent the highest level recorded since the 1930s. Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from various nations; however, economists have warned about the potential consequences of such policies. In a recent Reuters survey, all participating economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its January 29 meeting. Additionally, 61 out of 103 economists expect the rate to decrease to 4.00%-4.25% by March. The survey results also reveal that 65 out of 102 economists believe the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates no more than twice this year (compared to 41 out of 97 in the December survey who held this view). Moreover, 40 out of 49 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that U.S. inflation in 2025 will likely exceed expectations. Scott Bassant, the nominee for Treasury Secretary in President-elect Trump’s administration, described China’s economy as being in recession. Taking a more pessimistic tone, Bassant labeled China as one of the most unbalanced economies in the world, highlighting the country’s prioritization of military strength and efforts to maintain growth by exporting cheap goods to the rest of the world.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the corrective movement continues towards the supply zone, we can sell with a suitable risk reward. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the UK government faces significant challenges in restoring investor confidence, as the pound and British bonds continue their downward trend. Following a decline in UK markets early in 2025 due to rising concerns over debt and inflation, about 51% of the 250 participants in last week’s survey predicted the pound would fall to between $1.15 and $1.20 by the end of June. This would mark the currency’s weakest level in over two years. Meanwhile, 45% of participants anticipate greater volatility in the pound, with 10-year UK bond yields expected to rise above 5% this year.Taylor, a member of the Bank of England, emphasized the importance of staying vigilant against potential risks. He suggested that recent data indicate a worsening economic outlook and that interest rates should be reduced promptly to avoid further challenges. In Japan, households expect prices to rise in the coming year. The percentage of households with such expectations increased slightly from 85.6% in the previous survey to 85.7%. However, five-year inflation expectations have seen a slight decline. According to the Bank of Japan, average annual inflation expectations among households stand at 11.5%, based on the latest survey. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. The firm also remains optimistic about the yen, expecting any action by the Bank of Japan in January to support the currency. Market pricing suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain. According to Bloomberg, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will evaluate the need for a rate hike on Friday. Expectations for an interest rate increase have grown, provided that potential shocks from the early days of Trump’s presidency do not materialize. While other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are focused on rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction, aiming for a gradual return to conventional monetary policies. The Bank of Japan is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 on Friday. During its final meeting in 2024, the bank decided to keep rates unchanged. Governor Ueda stated that more data is needed to justify a rate hike, highlighting concerns about wages and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies. Since then, new data has shown a significant rise in November inflation, with December inflation pressures also intensifying. Wages also grew in November. Additionally, a summary of opinions from the December meeting indicates that a rate hike could occur sooner than investors anticipate. Given these developments and recent remarks from BoJ officials, investors assign an 80% probability to a 0.25% rate hike. However, the Bank of Japan has a long history of disappointing expectations for rate increases. If Trump adopts an aggressive stance on tariffs in his upcoming speech, the BoJ may once again refrain from raising rates, potentially leading to a decline in the yen. If the Bank of Japan does raise interest rates, the yen is likely to strengthen, but the associated risks are asymmetrical. The negative impact of refraining from a hike could outweigh the positive effect of an increase. Nonetheless, a further decline in the yen might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option. Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously. First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially. JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future. Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term. Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade. Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows. Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals. JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors. Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits. JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development. The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing. For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets. The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD 20 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per my intraday expectation dated 17 January 2024 by printing a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Internal range is now established as a result of the bearish CHoCH. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or H4 demand zone to then target weak internal high priced at 2,724.785. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 17 January 2025. You will also note how price attempted to target strong internal low but failed to close below. Price Action Analysis: Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Within the sub-structure there is further bullish iBOS, however, price did not pullback deep enough to warrant a bullish iBOS. I will therefore apply my discretion, which may need a revisit. H4 TF has printed a bullish iBOS and it appears bearish pullback phase initiation is underway, however, we currently do not have any indication, or confirmation. Current internal low and H4 TF CHoCH positioning are the same, priced at 2,690.050, therefore, despite M15 internal range dynamics being bullish, it is highly likely price will print a bearish iBOS Intraday Expectation: Technically, price should show reaction at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,724.785, however, the above mentioned scenario is also highly probable to assist H4 in it's bearish pullback phase. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
PLTR: Technical Analysis and Trends Across Different Timeframe Palantir Technologies (PLTR) presents an intriguing conflict between long-term trends and shorter-term movements. Analyzing the monthly, weekly, and daily charts highlights the current market complexities and provides key points for traders and investors. Monthly Chart: Long-Term Downward Trend On the monthly timeframe, the stock is showing a red 2D candle, indicating a drop below the previous month's low. Currently, the stock is trading below the monthly opening price but remains above the opening price of the prior month. This suggests a delicate balance between buyer and seller forces in the long-term perspective. Weekly Chart: Recovery from the Broadening Formation On the weekly timeframe, a green 2D candle indicates a positive correction, breaking above the high of the previous week. The stock opened this week at the edge of the **Broadening Formation** that was formed by a 3 candle last week. This level has acted as a strong support, sparking the current upward movement and may continue to hold as a critical support zone if the correction persists. Daily Chart: Positive Momentum with Resistance Challenges On the daily timeframe, the stock shows positive momentum after forming a Higher Low (HL), signaling further strength among buyers in the short term. However, the **monthly opening price at $76.05** remains a key resistance level. Unless the stock breaks above this level, the short-term correction may remain limited. Currently, $76.05 stands as the critical level to watch. A clear breakout above this resistance could indicate a significant trend reversal, while failure to break through might lead to renewed selling pressure. The recommended strategy is to closely monitor the stock’s behavior around support and resistance levels while maintaining disciplined risk management. For traders, shorter timeframes present tactical opportunities, but long-term investors should wait for clearer trend confirmations.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by shayy110
1
NzdUsd could rise to 0.58 (swing trade)The final quarter of 2024 was particularly challenging for the NZD, with the currency declining by 800 pips from its peak to its lowest point. More significantly, this drop represents a devaluation of over 12%, which is substantial for a major currency pair. As 2025 begins, however, OANDA:NZDUSD has entered a consolidation phase, holding above the critical support zone near 0.5550. This level is noteworthy and deserves attention as a potential turning point. While the overall trend remains bearish, a rebound from this key support area is likely. If this occurs, the pair could move higher toward the 0.58 resistance level. In summary, dips near the support zone present buying opportunities with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting a return of at least 1:2.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
9
Natural Gas: Sellers Target $3.38Hello everyone! Key Highlights: Current State: The market is in a sideways movement, Currently, the downward vector (5-6) is active, targeting the short-term goal (PT Short) of $3.38, which is 11% below the current price. Range Boundaries: Upper Boundary: $4.269, Lower Boundary: $3.319 Vectors of the Sideways market: The last completed vector (4-5) was upward, forming a zone of sellers (highlighted in red) near Upper Boundary. This zone acts as a significant resistance for future upward movement. Currently, the downward vector (5-6) is active, targeting the short-term goal (PT Short) of $3.38, which is 11% below the current price. Supply and Demand Zones: Zone of Sellers: Formed during the upward movement (last impulse). Approximate levels: $4.052 and above. Price is moving away from this zone, confirming seller dominance in the short term. Zone of Buyers: Found near the lower boundary of $3.319 - $3.38. This area may provide strong support if the price continues to decline. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Case: If sellers maintain control, the price could drop towards $3.38, aligning with the lower boundary. A break below this level would open the path to further declines. Bullish Case: A strong buyer reaction near $3.38 or $3.319 could initiate a rebound, with targets towards $4.05. Summary: The market is currently dominated by sellers, with the price declining toward $3.38. However, the level at $3.768 may act as a potential obstacle for the seller vector, if buyers will be defending this level. Additionally, buyer zones near the lower boundary may provide further support and opportunities for long positions if reversal patterns emerge. Stay cautious and monitor key levels for potential setups! Wishing you all successful trades and a profitable day!
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by AlexeyWolf