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GBP/USD Short Trade Setup NFPI’m planning a short trade on GBP/USD based on the following analysis: Monday , This week opened with a gap on monday Wednesday probably created a significant high of the week. Thursday BOE Rate Cuts Impact: The pound weakened on following the rate cuts. Friday today London Session: Price is currently moving higher, looking to fill imbalances and target liquidity around 1.2455 and 1.2494. Key Zones : Monitoring the FVG zones for price reactions and potential rejection around the marked imbalances. Entry Strategy : Considering short positions around these levels with a tight stop-loss to manage risk. Additional Insights: Watching for any significant breaks in market structure, especially with the upcoming NFP report and might look to target Monday low around @1.2250 Conclusion: It's all a probability game so don't forget to manage risk. Jobs report are key. Based on the current market conditions and upcoming NFP report, I’m looking for potential shorting opportunities on GBP/USD around the identified liquidity zones and imbalances.
Short
by hskarue
3
XAU/USD 07 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation Price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,882.310. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed bearish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price continue bearish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,882.310 Alternative scenario: As H4 remains in bearish pullback phase, it would be viable to consider price targeting strong internal low, priced at 2,722.215. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures. Global Impact: International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics. Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment: Strong NFP Data: A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Weak NFP Data: A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term. This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High. 🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
by Amr-Sadek
2
Stock Of The Day / 02.04.25 / EL02.04.2025 / NYSE:EL #EL Fundamentals. Earnings report. Estee Lauder beats earnings expectations, but negative forecasts send shares lower. Technical analysis. Daily chart: Downtrend. Level 69.78 formed by the gap in November 2024 is ahead. Premarket: Gap Down on increased volume. Trading session: A pullback after the initial downward movement was stopped at the level of 74.00. We observe a narrow range and a clear holding of the price below the level. We are considering a short trade to continue the downward movement in case of holding the level of 74.00. Trading scenario: #Pullback along the trend (#rebound) from the level 74.00 Entry: 73.13 when exit down from the trading range below the level. Stop: 74.12 we hide it behind the level with a small reserve. Exit: Close part of the position before the daily level of 69.78. Close the remaining part of the position at a price of 68.50 when the structure of the downtrend is broken. Risk Rewards: 1/4 P.S. In order to understand the idea behind the Stock Of The Day analysis, read the following information .
NYSE:ELShort
by AlexX31
BTCUSDT: a short SMC (Smart Money Concepts) breakdownBTCUSDT: a short SMC (Smart Money Concepts) breakdown 1️⃣ Daily (global perspective) • Overall trend remains bullish, but we’re in a correction off the ~110k peak. • Key daily demand zones: 90–92k and 85–88k. • Major supply above at 100–105k. 2️⃣ 4H (mid-term) • A downtrend is forming within the broad 92–105k range. • Nearest resistance: 98–100k (supply zone). • Support: 94–92k. A break below 92k could extend toward 90–88k. 3️⃣ 1H (local view) • Price is pressured down: a series of BOS signals bears in control. • Trend reversal requires a break above ~98–99k with firm hold. 4️⃣ Conclusion • Below 98k, likely more downside toward 92–94k. • A bounce off 92–94k might test 98–99k. Breaking above that opens 100–105k. • Watch how price reacts around 92–94k and 98–99k for the next major move. Focus: look for BOS/CHoCH near these zones, confirm entries with patterns. Always keep risk management and fundamentals (news, macro stats, etc.) in mind.
by theanabioz
XAU/USD Trade Idea: Potential Long Setup📊 Pair: XAU/USD (Gold) 💡 Trade Bias: Bullish • Buy Entry: Around 2,816.691 • Take Profit (TP): 2,882.344 • Key Level (IDM): 2,839.487 🎯 Plan: Waiting for price to take out the IDM level before moving into my order flow for a refined entry. Will look for a CHoCH flip on the 5M timeframe within the order block to confirm bullish intent. 🚨 Note: Price action near the IDM level and 5M confirmation will dictate the actual entry. Staying cautious until all confirmations align.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Juicemannn
EURGBP...PULLBACK OR REVERSAL? POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITYHello hello TradingView fam! Hope you are are doing super well and having an incredible start to 2025. I just wanted to come on here and share a potential opportunity I see on the EURGBP currency pair. SO sit back, enjoy, and hope you get some value from this post! OK so first thing first. Higher timeframe. You can see from the title of my post "pullback or reversal" that we potentially have a trend shifting move at hand before us. Now you may be asking "how do you know?" and the short answer is I DONT...BUT the market leaves clues. And my mentor taught me that the market is a receipt for the bigger players displaying there interest...or lack of it. SO for me, when looking at this currency pair I can see back in December of 2024 a low was created around 0.82250 (round psychological number) on this pair before a large, strong rally from the buyers led prices to break multiple week/month highs. This is significant because if retail traders are not the ones moving the markets (because they are not) then we have to realize the larger players were so interested in this price that they bought up enough volume to cause the prices to have that very significant reaction. SO AS RETAIL TRADERS we should take that as a HUGE clue that when prices are coming BACK TO THAT ZONE OF PRICE they may be interested again...ever heard of "History Repeats Itself?" OK so that is the reasoning behind my bias that we may have a reversal on our hands and a potential continuation to the upside. Here are some confluences that add to that in terms of my technical analysis clues to give a few. 1. Daily is in uptrend (now making higher highs & higher lows) 2. RSI is oversold 3. Fibonacci alignment with zone (showing % of discount essentially) OK guys so that is my breakdown for EURGBP!!!! As I'm writing this as well I see that prices opened up very gapped to the downside!! WOW!! Keep eyes on guys my bias still remains...Cheers!
Long
by JosePips
WMT Showing Bullish Momentum – Move Toward $99.00 ExpectedNYSE:WMT is demonstrating strong bullish momentum, driven by consistent price strength and support from key moving averages. The recent price action confirms buyers' dominance, with a clear uptrend evident on the chart. The stock has advanced steadily, breaking out of prior consolidation zones, and is now poised to target the $99.00 level, which serves as the next significant milestone. This setup aligns with the expectation of a bullish continuation, offering a potential long opportunity if pullbacks or consolidations occur near current levels. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts here!
NYSE:WMTLong
by Leo_Marksman
XAUUSD - Where will gold go?!US President Donald Trump has raised serious concerns among global economies and financial markets by threatening to impose punitive tariffs on the country’s largest trading partners. So far, he has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, delayed the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and indicated that the European Union will be the next target of his trade policies. However, beyond the political hype, tariffs have important practical and economic effects. Tariffs are actually a type of tax on imported goods that, like other taxes, are a source of revenue for the government. Many countries impose these taxes to protect domestic production, as tariffs increase the price of foreign goods and therefore strengthen the competitiveness of domestic products. Trump, however, is using this tool not only to support domestic industries but also as leverage in his foreign policy. One example of this policy is his decision to postpone the imposition of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which was made after the two countries agreed to implement stricter measures to control immigration and combat drug trafficking at their common borders. Tariffs were once a major source of revenue for the US government, but their share has declined significantly over the past century. According to an analysis of official data by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of last year, tariffs accounted for less than 3 percent of total federal revenue. If the tariffs were to be permanently imposed, as Trump initially proposed, the total additional costs to American importers over the next decade could reach $1.1 trillion. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that the policy could lead to tax increases of up to $110 billion by 2025 alone. The think tank also estimates that tariffs on China, which began under Trump and expanded under Biden, currently generate $77 billion in revenue for the U.S. government annually. Economic studies show that ultimately, American consumers and businesses will bear the brunt of these tariffs. While some foreign producers may lower their prices or accept some of the costs from American importers, in many cases, companies will raise the prices of their goods to compensate for the additional costs, and those costs will be passed on to consumers. A look at recent U.S.-China trade relations provides a clear example of the impact of tariffs. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, and industrial engines. The policy has reduced China’s share of U.S. imports from about 20 percent in 2018 to 14 percent by 2023. Meanwhile, official demand for gold continues to play a major role in the precious metal’s market, keeping prices near record levels. It’s not just emerging market central banks buying gold to protect their currencies. Krishan Gopal, senior analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at the World Gold Council, pointed to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a social media post that showed Taiwan’s central bank increased its gold reserves in October. According to the report, the official gold reserves of the Central Bank of Taiwan reached 424 tons three months ago. Despite the recent volatility in the gold market, analysts believe that the continued purchases of central banks will continue to be the main factor in maintaining the bullish trend of the precious metal. Joy Yang, global head of index product management at MarketVector Indexes, said that with the increasing geopolitical uncertainties caused by Trump’s economic policies and the slogan of “America First”, central banks are looking for more neutral assets to preserve the value of their reserves. According to him, these policies of the Trump administration have made gold a more attractive option for countries that want to protect themselves against economic risks and reduce their dependence on the US dollar and Treasuries. Katie Kriski, commodity market strategist at Invesco, also believes that the high demand for gold by central banks continues to create significant value for retail investors. He also predicted that this trend will not stop in the near future, citing the People’s Bank of China as one of the most prominent examples of this behavior in the global gold market. Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone for gold will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND