Incoming $1trillion dollar correction for crypto people... ** weeks ahead **
Is the market top in? This next move in the market will certainly convince the crypto folks that it is.
According to social media, Youtube influencers etc.. the bull run is just beginning.
That is in despite of a swathe of News article headlines “Bitcoin reaches new all time high $100k” and the janitor I have not spoken to in 10 years asking me if I'm buying Bitcoin.
The signs are there.
On the above 6 day chart, the TOTAL crypto market capitalisation, currently 3.57 trillion dollars price action has risen 46% since the November breakout. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook:
1) Price action and RSI support breakdowns. Indeed the November breakouts requires confirmation of support on past resistance to allow for continuation. That's a long way down.
2) Support is exactly $1 trillion below at $2.57 trillion.
3) Price action is at a significant Fibonacci extension, look left.
4) This signal is found across the entire crypto market on both 6 day and weekly charts, in other words there is confluence across timeframes. That is important.
Is it possible speculators keep throwing good money after bad in the hope price go up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.
TOTAL3 - Hanging man
OTHERS total - Hanging man
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
TESTING PATIENCE As we can see NIFTY despite trying is not able to close itself inside the structure which indicates lurking weakness in coming sessions but intuition says we may see NIFTY’s weekly candle could probably close inside the structure leading to the end of bear trend and change of trend so plan your trades accordingly .
GBPUSD Weekly Review: Feb 24th - 28thThe cable is still showing bullish with dollar concerns on the rates and the pound being stronger at the moment.
Last week
Monday & Tuesday: Consolidation
Wednesday: Downward breakout, filling the imbalance, forming the week's low
Thursday: Price rallied higher, taking out buy-side liquidity and ERL @1.2666
Friday: Price traded lower to close the week, closing in a 4hr buy-side imbalance
Forecast and Key Levels:
Immediate bounce off @1.2630
Potential targets if trading lower:
Weekly BISI @1.2560
Lower @1.2550
Targets on the upside:
Last week's high @1.26800
Buy-side liquidity @1.27300
Ultimate target @1.28000 which is at the monthly sibi
DXY Confluence:
DXY has a daily FVG (Fair Value Gap) to be filled, which could lead to a move lower targeting @105.40
EU and the world will aslo be following closely the Germany elecions 23rd/feb/2025.
IS USDJPY HAVE BUY SIDE LEQUIDITY?USDJPY is Sweep Buy Side Lequidity now sell side Lequidity Rest In Upside Market Will Go And Hunt These Lequidities That I Mentioned In Chart Be Patience Be Discipline With Your Strategies Without Knowing Market Behaviors Not Put Your Harder Money.
This Is Analysis Not A Financial Advice DYOR.
BTC Trade✅ After testing POI 1W (FVG) & triggering FL 1D ($89,100), we got a 4H VC → Taking a LONG position targeting the nearest FVG 1D zone
📈 Plan:
Expecting liquidity pool formation & its raid as price delivers.
Watching for VC 1D buyer formation—if confirmed, targeting 1W TF levels.
⚠️ Risk Factor:
50% FVG 1W ($85,480) remains unfilled → Potential sweep before upside continuation.
XAU/USD 26 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed as per alternative scenario analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS, which price printed.
As a result of the bearish iBOS, we now have a confirmed swing high.
Price has also printed a bearish CHoCH and traded in to premium of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price should target weak internal low priced at 2,888.180.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
EURUSD 26 Feb 2025 W9 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today economic news:
No Major economic news scheduled today.
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase.
🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase.
🔹As price continued Bullish yesterday with Bullish iBOS. Currently with the recent iBOS we started the pullback and reached the INT structure extreme Demand where price can start the INT structure Bullish continuation and target the Weak INT High and ultimately the Weak 15m Swing High.
🔹If price failed to hold the INT structure Bullish and Turned Bearish, there is a high probability that we will continue Bearish based on the DXY PB Phase on 4H (PB after Bearish iBOS) and price may target the Strong 15m Swing Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish while also cautious about the possibility of price to turn Bearish iBOS.
Gold Idea Today.........
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AU Bullish Play - Multi-Timeframe Precision 4H is running bullish after breaking a major HH. I spotted an IDM, but mitigation to the 4H OB looked like it could take days or even weeks. Instead of waiting, I dropped to the 30M to hunt for bullish continuation.
On the 30M, price was still pushing, but I needed refinement. Spotted a major IDM from the 2H, then dropped back to the 30M to locate near-term structure. Instead of a clear OB, order flow stepped in—wicking into refined 15M levels. That was my cue.
Dropped to the 5M and waited for a clean CHoCH confirmation. Price followed through strong, locking in my entry. Now the 30M is pushing through, confirming bullish intent. TP is mapped—now it’s just execution and trade management.
When you stack timeframes the right way, the market lays out the moves for you. Let’s see how this one plays out.
#SMC #Forex #AUDUSD #OrderFlow #MultiTimeframeAnalysis
Bless Trading!..
NZDCHF SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Round Psych Level 0.51500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5,6
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Bull Market Started. GO UP ETHThe 2300 region that I have been waiting for a long time has finally come again. While BTC is falling, ETH is now looking stronger. A nice bottom structure has formed in ETHBTC. I think the bull market has started and the rise is coming from here. I am adding to my ETH contracts by the end of April.
Impact of yesterday’s Piercing Bar (Gold/USD 1D Chart)Impact of yesterday’s Piercing Bar (Gold/USD 1D Chart)
1. Price Action & Candlestick Pattern Analysis
• The Piercing Line pattern on the daily chart is typically a bullish reversal signal, appearing after a downtrend.
• However, today’s strong bearish follow-through (big red candle) invalidates the bullish intent of the pattern. This signals weakness in buyers’ strength.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) & Market Sentiment
• Volume change is negative (-5.8%) with an increase in spread (74.95%), which means there’s a wider price range with less participation—suggesting weakness in demand.
• Weak buying pressure across lower timeframes (1H, 4H, 8H) confirms that any bounce is likely to be short-lived.
3. Support & Resistance Zones
• Key resistance at 2,956-2,972 (VWAP Upper Band & Liquidity High) acted as a rejection zone.
• Key support at 2,888-2,891 (VWAP & VSA Liquidity Low). This is the level to watch for potential breakdown.
4. Momentum & Trend Analysis
• The bearish momentum is strong across multiple timeframes (1H, 4H, 8H).
• Price failed to hold above 2,932 VWAP, confirming further downside risk.
5. Order Flow & Market Strength
• Negative Delta on footprint charts shows that sellers are dominating order flow.
• Absorption at 2,899-2,900 suggests smart money is still distributing, not accumulating.
Outlook & Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish Outlook (Short Continuation Expected)
• Entry: Sell Below 2,891 (Breakdown confirmation)
• Stop Loss: 2,920 (Above rejection zone)
• Take Profit 1: 2,863 (Liquidity Low)
• Take Profit 2: 2,850-2,810 (VWAP Lower Band zones)
• Confidence Level: 75%
Justification for Trade:
• The Piercing Line failed to reverse trend.
• VWAP breakdown & weak volume structure confirm bearish continuation.
• Momentum remains bearish, with weak demand signals.
👉 Conclusion: Gold remains bearish unless bulls reclaim 2,932-2,956. Short positions favored on breakdown.
BTCUSD Buy Limit OrderHey guys...
I've expected bitcoin to fall, and now I think its the time and I think this area is the area that it would have a stop for a pull back and I'm gonna set an order.
I'll update the TPs later.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian