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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Gold collapse imminent? 7hr chartPrice action on Gold since August as shown on the above 7hr chart. A Euphoric rally in the last 3 months has Gold bugs jubilant in celebration with a record 48% win from September 2011 (Ignore the 480% return of the S&P 500 in the same period). There are now messages aplenty calling for $5k and beyond. Who knows. One thing I do know, a common theme throughout the messages, people are euphoric. Market tops print with euphoria. Now this idea is not about who is wrong or who is right, congratulations if you've made a profit. The point of the post is to make sure profits are realised. A profit on paper is not a win and the bubble may now be about to pop. 90% of folks long on gold will not collect the recent gains. Why might the party be about to end? A few reasons.. 1) Price action support is broken. This is also true for RSI. 2) Throughout history RSI above 80 on the 3 week chart (below) has been a warning shot for extreme overbought conditions. Look left. Corrections between 20% and 50% are recorded. 3) Price action is at historical macro resistance (see 2 month chart below). Is it possible this time is different? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww 3 week 2 month
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by without_worries
53
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!This is an image of the original Video tutorial i made walking through XAU/USD Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
GBPJPY - Yen will continue its weakness?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The BRC retail report in the UK indicated that retail sales in October 2024 only grew by 0.3%, a significant drop compared to the 1.7% growth in September. This decline is attributed to consumers’ caution ahead of Black Friday promotions and school half-term holidays, which were delayed compared to usual. Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), stated, “After a strong start in autumn, October sales growth was disappointing. Part of this decline was due to the later timing of school half-term holidays, which reduced sales, but it is expected that November will show better performance.” She also noted that consumer sentiment has been affected by uncertainties surrounding future budgets and rising energy costs. According to the latest Citi/YouGov survey, British households’ inflation expectations for the coming year have reached 3.3%, and long-term household inflation expectations remain at 3.8%. Analysts at Citi Investment Bank suggest that these figures indicate that despite efforts by the Bank of England to curb inflation, public inflation expectations remain high. In Japan, the government has designed a support plan for the country’s semiconductor industry that involves leveraging assets such as its shares in NTT, with the program spanning several years. Instead of direct subsidies, the plan includes a multi-stage approach. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers receive subsidies while moving towards mass production, and once they reach this stage, the government shifts to other forms of support such as private sector investments and financial guarantees, extending this process until around 2030. Sakurai, a former board member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), announced that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates again in the coming months, with January being a potential timing for this action. The aim is to increase short-term interest rates to 1.5% or 2% by the end of Ueda’s term in early 2028.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Is a Trend Reversal Coming?OANDA:EURUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current Price: 1.07962 Potential for a Bullish Reversal: EUR/USD is showing strong signs of a possible bullish reversal across multiple timeframes, marked by key technical indicators: • Breakout of Descending Channel Upper Trendline • Weekly Major Support Zone • Potential Double Bottom Formation • Emerging Bullish Divergence Descending Channel Breakout: The price has broken above the descending channel’s upper trendline (highlighted in the red circle on the chart), turning this line into a weaker resistance zone. Weekly Major Support Zone: We anticipate that price may retest the major weekly support level at 1.07421. This zone could serve as a solid foundation for a double bottom formation, combined with a bullish divergence. If this occurs, it could present an optimal entry point for buyers. Top of Trading Range: Should price rally, the next significant resistance lies at the top of the trading range, around 1.08635. Given the strength of this resistance, we might see a pullback at this level before further movement upward. Price Target: Based on technical indicators and chart patterns, the final target stands around the psychological level of 1.10000. Key Levels to Watch: • Support: 1.07421 • Resistance: 1.08635 • Target: 1.10000 Stay tuned and happy trading!
Long
by SpicyPips
XAU/USD 06 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 31 October 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal. Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high. We should however remain mindful that Daily TF is showing very early signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. Therefore, price could potentially print a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As outlined in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 05 November 2024, I mentioned that price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price printed to this expectation, successfully targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS. While price has not yet printed a bullish CHoCH, it has moved up to the premium of 50% EQ, allowing me to confirm the internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to target the weak internal low. Note: Given the ongoing Presidential elections, the Fed’s softer stance, and heightened geopolitical tensions, price is expected to remain highly volatile. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
IRCON' S SUPPORT & RESISTANCE BULL OR BEAR ???- Hellooo, let's come towards main point as we can see from the daily chart Ircon is at its main support level which is 192 and from the same level it took support 4 times and reached 239-240 level. - The level of 239-240 will act as resistance for it and if it breaks the next target or resistance will be at 280 or 281 if we talk about percentage then Ircon can give upto 30%. - The strategy what we can use is to buy at lows so atleast if consider average issues then still we can earn minimum 15-20% in short term or above it. - S = 192 R=240 R2 = 280 R3= 301 & R4 = 351 - This are all my personal views not a buy or sell recommendation
NSE:IRCONLong
by investorragnarok
Trade Recaps: EURUSD - SHORT, GBPJPY - SHORT, 05/11/2024EU Bias Analysis: Although Price is deeply discounted on the HTF's and the 4H has started trending higher, A shift of 1H structure from a 4H Bearish Order Block presented an opportunity for short positions as price corrected into IRL. Grade: High Risk GJ Bias Analysis: Price is trading at a weekly premium and is establishing a 4H bearish trend after a break to the downside and correction higher, pending a continuation lower. Short entries aligned with the current 1H bearish range and entry confirmation was received after a TBL sweep and 15M distribution lower. Grade: Low Risk
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
AAPL: Reacting Above a Critical Support Level (D&W Charts).Daily Chart (Left) ATH Resistance: The daily chart indicates a potential double top pattern near the all-time high (ATH) at around $237.23, signaling a possible resistance zone that could lead to a bearish reversal if not breached in the next few weeks. Mid-Term Support: The $221.33 level is acting as a mid-term support. A break below this level could imply further downside potential reversing the long-term trend, while a hold above could suggest consolidation or a reversal attempt to retest the ATH again. Weekly Chart (Right) Sideways Movement with Weekly EMA Support: The weekly chart shows a range-bound movement with $237.23 acting as a key resistance. The 21-week EMA is supporting the price, suggesting that buyers may still have interest at current levels. This EMA ccoicindes with the $221 support observed on the daily chart, reinforcing its importance. Consolidation Phase: The stock is in a consolidation phase just below its ATH, which could be indicative of a buildup before a breakout. Trading Implications: AAPL's chart shows signs of potential reversal to the ATH, as it remains supported by mid-term and weekly EMA support levels, and we see a bullish reaction in this area. However, if it loses the $221, along with the 21-week EMA, i'll reject the bullish thesis. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
PLTR: Explosive Move! New ATH After Earnings Report.Daily Chart (Left) Explosive Move: The price surged more than 20% following a strong earnings release, indicating high investor interest and strong buying momentum. New Support at $45: The $45 level, previously acting as resistance, now serves as a potential support according to the principle of polarity. Monitoring this level is crucial for any pullbacks or consolidations. Therefore, even if we see PLTR losing momentum, any pullback to the $45 won't ruin the uptrend. Strong Uptrend: The moving average (21 EMA) supports the ongoing bullish trend, with the price well above it. Weekly Chart (Right) All-Time High Breakout: The price has broken past its previous all-time high, confirming strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame. Sustained Upward Trend: The consistent uptrend since mid-2023 continues with increasing strength, supported by a steep rise in the weekly 21 EMA. Trading Implications: PLTR is currently experiencing strong bullish momentum, marked by an impressive breakout following earnings. The $45 level is crucial to watch for potential support on pullbacks. The trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 21 EMA and the support level holds. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
AUDUSD. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors! On the daily time frame, there has been a sideways range since August 24 (with point 4 formed). The lower boundary is 0.63478, and the upper boundary is 0.6942. The seller's vector 5-6 within the range on the daily time frame has reached the target of 0.65604. The buyer has halted the downward movement and is trying to start their vector 6-7 with a potential target of 0.67985. If we think not in terms of the range, but how the last buyer’s impulse, which started at 0.63478, traders have gathered volume below the 50% level (0.66278) of this impulse, which may indicate an attempt to reverse the price upwards. We should pay attention to how the price interacts with the 0.6622 level. This is the start of the buyer’s last sub-impulse (which nearly coincides with the 50% level of the last impulse!). If the buyer manages to break through this level and defend it, this accumulation below the level will provide good fuel for an upward move, and long positions can be sought. If the seller defends the 0.6622 level, it makes sense to wait for the buyer’s next attempt to reverse the price on the daily time frame, as searching for short positions in the buyer’s context area is risky. Short positions can be looked for on lower time frames, with lower time frame targets and considering the contexts of both the higher and lower time frames. A medium-term forecast can be found in the related post. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
1
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544. On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44. On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
by morrisgitau
XAU/USD 05 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 31 October 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal. Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high. We should however remain mindful that Daily TF is showing very early signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. Therefore, price could potentially print a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As highlighted in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 04 November 2024, I mentioned that price was expected to continue targeting the weak internal low. Price followed this expectation, reaching the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS. Subsequently, price has printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Internal structure has also been confirmed. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to react at either premium of the 50% EQ or the M15 supply level before targeting weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK