EURUSDHello, I hope you are well🌹
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Multiple Time Frame Analysis
GBPUSD Institutional Orderflow ExampleMONTHLY
We see a bounce from a monthly order block
We also failed to displace below a previous swing low. Because it's a higher time frame, this could indicate that a lot of liquidity has been absorbed by institutional players.
The next area of interest on the monthly could be the fair value gap that formed within the series of downclose candles
DAILY
Now that we have an idea on where the higher time frame might move to, we can use this on our lower time frames to better predict price movement.
We see clear signs of market makers soaking up liquidity and accumulating buy orders around the monthly order block area. This happens gradually, because big institutional players have big orders, they can not enter the market all at once. You see that the accumulation of buy orders is taking up to 6 days.
We then see a big upclose candle with displacement above a previous swing high. This move indicates a market structure shift, giving away the intentions of market makers to drive price higher again.
The upclose candle that shifted structure left a daily order block, that got filled the next day. This is also a clear sign of institutional sponsorship defending their orders. The candle that filled the order block also displaced above the previous swing high, confirming our shift in structure.
The price action that followed is clearly bullish, creating higher highs and lower lows. We see that price also took buy stops above previous swing highs. These previous swing highs can now be see as low resistance liquidity.
On the daily time frame, we see a bullish fair value gap yet to be rebalanced. We can thus anticipate a retracement into that fair value gap.
We are currently sweeping Monday's high, which could be the start of the retracement. But we could also still hit the mean threshold of the 2 upclose candles that can be seen as a propulsion block
We will wait for price to reach for that fair value gap to look for a new buying opportunity. Idealy, we want to see a swing low form on the daily in the fair value gap. If price would rebalance the fair value gap, we want to zoom in to intraday levels to look for entry points.
AUD/NZD could be veering towards a breakoutThe RBNZ just delivered their third 50bp cut in a row, and they have left the door open for further easing this year. And given I expect the RBNZ's cash rate to remain beneath the RBA's for the remainder of the year, it could pave the way for a bullish breakout on AUD/NZD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Long trade
Pair: AUDNZD
Date: Tuesday, 18th February 2025
Time: 6:45 PM (NY Time)
Session: London to NY Session PM
Trade Details:
Entry: 1.10996
Profit Level: 1.11679 (+0.62%)
Stop Level: 1.10895 (-0.09%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.76
Reason: Buyside trade is based on a bullish market structure, liquidity grabs, and demand zone validation.
NIFTY showing signs of REVERSAL..?As we can see NIFTY is showing signs of REVERSAL by forming multiple indecision candles around the trendline which is overpowered by the buyer but the demand zone is yet to be reached hence we can expect more of volatility and weakness before finally changing the trend so plan your trades accordingly l.
Expecting bullish volatility from this bearish contractionSupported by the daily rejection block, we're looking for bullish opportunities because we have cleared the immediate swing high at 158.000. This sentiment indicates a strong bullish market.
Anticipating this corrective movement to reduce further and mitigate the breaker block at 157.350 to activate buyers for a volatile bullish move.
- Entry: 157.350
- Stop Loss: 156.550 (80 pips risk)
- Target: 161.350 (400 pips potential gain)
This trade setup suggests a bullish opportunity with a risk-reward ratio of 1:5.
USOIL READY TO EXPLODE?! DON’T MISS THIS CRUCIAL MOVE!📊 USOIL (Crude Oil) Analysis – February 17
What’s up, traders? Mr. Blue Ocean FX here with another deep dive into the markets, and today, we’re breaking down US Oil (Crude Oil) and the major opportunities setting up. Let’s get straight into it.
📉 Weekly Time Frame Insight
• Last week’s candle closed with exhaustion, printing a low at 70.30 but losing volume compared to previous bearish moves.
• Key Resistance: 71.55 area was broken, signaling potential bullish momentum.
• Impulse Move: Price pushed as high as 79.44 (Jan 13th), breaking past the 77.90 October high before retesting that level.
📊 Daily Time Frame Setup
• USOIL is currently ranging in a consolidation zone, and we are at the lower region of this range.
• Buy Zone Identified:
• Three bottom touches suggest a strong support level.
• Higher low structure forming at 70.58, above the previous Feb 6th low of 70.34.
• If bulls hold this zone, we could see a strong push to the upside.
🕒 4H Time Frame Execution Plan
• Structure Confirmation: After a deep retracement, price failed to print a new low.
• Liquidity Sweep: A wick below 70.16 may have stopped early buyers before price reclaimed.
• Entry Plan:
• Buy near 70.68 (entry level).
• Stops below the recent low.
• Targeting 72.04, then 73.32, with further upside potential to 74.21+ if consolidation breaks.
• Channel Formation: USOIL is respecting an upward-sloping trend channel that could continue bouncing before a major breakout or breakdown.
🚀 What’s Next?
If bulls maintain control, we could see an explosive breakout, targeting higher liquidity zones above 74.21. However, if price breaks down, we may see another leg lower before a final push up.
🔥 What do you think? Will oil rally higher or break down? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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Let’s catch these moves! 🚀💰 #USOIL #CrudeOil #Trading #Forex #MarketBreakdown
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure.
Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China.
On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
EURAUD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 1.66500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Potential Head and Shoulder on H4
Levels 5.87
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
XAU/USD 18 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 February 2025.
As mentioned in analysis dated 10 February 2025 that it is highly likely price will print a bullish iBOS is how price printed.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
ChoCH positioning to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50%, or H4 demand zone, before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,942.780.
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
H15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis whereby it was mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ or nested H4/M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,942.780.
Alternative Scenario:
As all HTF's are in bearish pullback phase it would be viable if price targeted strong internal low, printing a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Trend Intact, Next Target 1.06?In my post last week about EUR/USD, I argued that the pair could rise to 1.05 and that dips around 1.03 should be seen as buying opportunities.
Indeed, after briefly dipping below 1.03, the pair reversed to the upside and reached my 1.05 target.
Currently, the pair is undergoing a small correction and is trading at 1.0460 at the time of writing. However, my bullish outlook remains unchanged. Dips around 1.04 should once again be considered buying opportunities.
The next target for bulls could be the 1.06 resistance zone.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
CADJPY LongOn the Hourly TF the price has just broken through the previous Lower High, marking a new Higher High.
Expecting the price to retrace filling in all inefficiencies down to around $106.9 before reversing from an Order Block (OB) and rally to the next OB at $107.4.
If the price can break through $107.4, it is highly probable that the uptrend will continue.
EURUSD 18 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - EU ZEW /US ManufacturingThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some light economic news today along with the US Markets are back after long weekend.
EUR : ZEW Economic Sentiment
US : Empire State Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Currently price is targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCK) above the recent demand which could provide Bullish continuation.
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.
🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS today.
🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount.
3️⃣
🔹As price on the 4H is currently targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCH), expectations today is to continue Bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback to Swing Discount and mitigate the 4H/15m Demand before continuing Bullish.
USD/CAD finds support (but 1.40 still beckons)USD/CAD has spent most of the past two weeks stuck on sell mode, after its short-lived rise to the 22-year high of 1.48 came crashing down thanks to tariffs being delayed.
Due to bears closing shorts on CAD futures and bulls shying away from long USD bets, my core view is for USD/CAD down to 1.40, just above the 2022 high. But over the near term it shows the potential for a bounce towards 1.43.
Last week's low stalled around a weekly VPOC and November high. A small bullish hammer and inside-day doji also formed around the 100-day EMA, while a bullish divergence also formed on the daily RSI (2) in the oversold zone.
Bulls could seek dips towards the weekly VPOC in anticipation of a bounce to 1.4250, while prices hold above last week's low. At which point we can revisit its potential to roll over once more, in line with the core bias outlined above.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and forex.com
FALLING WEDGE PATTERN is yet to be completed As we can see NIFTY is forming more like a falling wedge pattern in bigger time frame which could result major change in trend when the break of structure is seen but we can see NIFTY has not fully formed falling wedge pattern and hence giving more room for fall so unless the structure is completely formed, every rise can be sold till confirmation is found so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching.