July 2025 - Will Tether (USDT) decouple from its $1 peg in 2025?Firstly, it is not the intention of this post to spread FUD (Fear, uncertainty, & doubt), but rather a word of caution to all who use USDT. You should read this idea in conjunction with the recently published “ Is Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea, there’s a remarkable alignment between them, should you understand what the 6 week chart above is telling you.
The argument presented here is for a failed redemption request on the Tether network, ultimately resulting in the collapse of the Tether stable coin. The event is expected to occur during the month of September, which will be the expected end of the Bitcoin bull market.
Throughout the years freshly printed USDT has been the life blood of alt tokens, that’s a fact. As supply and dominance increase, so does the size of the alt token market (including Ethereum). Those two conditions are an undeniable fact, look left. Fresh USDT is the alt token traders drug, they're addicted. Jump down to Reason 3 for a detailed comparison.
We’re now heading into a period of time where the opposite appears to be unfolding, and no one is talking about it. No one. But more on that later. This is about Tether itself.
Whatever is about to happen to Tether, it will be a first in its near 11 year history. You only need look left to see, this time is very different from previous market cycles. In the near term (weeks ahead) a collapse in Tether dominance is likely to print. Ultimately this will be at first a good thing for the alt token market, at least that’s how it will be perceived, but afterwards..
If you’ve studied the $1 peg failure of Terra Luna’s stable coin, then you’re likely looking at USDT.d chart and wondering where you’ve seen this before. The Luna crypto network collapsed in what's considered the largest crypto crash ever, with an estimated $60 billion wipeout, life savings were lost, dreams crushed. Many lost a great deal of money they thought was safe. Could the same happen with Tether? And what could cause such an event?
Let’s explore this…
What is the Tether stable coin?
The core idea behind USDT is that each token is backed 1-to-1 by real U.S. dollar reserves. This is what's supposed to give a "stablecoin" its value, it should always be tradable with $1 USD. Unlike a bank, Tether does not create money, it digitises it, which is sort of how you use your debit card to make purchases every day. Real cash never touches your fingers, the only difference is the money in your bank is insured, protected by the government in the event of default, whereas your USDT.. it is a private company, if it fails, it’s gone.
Naturally Tether does not maintain a real cash equivalent for each USDT token in circulation, that would be impractical for a profit making business. Ironically, Tether is more liquid than most high street banks. And yet, there’s a growing risk ignored by the market. In fact, during research of this idea, it is surprising how far under the RADAR this risk has gone unnoticed. It is the same risk that allowed US Banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to fail (chart at bottom of page, does it look familiar to above?).
The collapse - but how?
Reason 1 - BONDs, Precious metals, & Bitcoin market exposure…
Tether has become one of the largest holders of US Treasury bills globally. Reports indicate that exposure to US Treasuries (direct and indirect, via money market funds and reverse repo agreements) has approached or exceeded $120 billion as of Q1 2025. As a matter of fact it is said so on their own website.
In the last audit (March 2025) where it was recorded, a U.S. Treasury Bill exposure of $98.5b “with a residual average maturity of less than 90 days”, to use their own words.
Source :
In their own words “The breakdown of the reserve backing the fiat denominated Tether tokens in circulation is.. . “, the highlights:
A precious metal exposure @ $6.6 billion and spot Bitcoin reserves @ $7.6 billion and somehow secured loans of $8.8 billion (plot twist, Micro strategy! Or Strategy as they’ve now chosen to name themselves) and around $64 million in cash.
The total assets as reported tied up in various financial instruments: $149,274,515,988, with approximately 66% tied up in the Bond market (and let’s ignore both Bitcoin and Gold are at historic overbought levels, $13.2billion is at considerable exposure to volatility.)
Circulating tokens: 158.6 billion
$149,274,515,988 (Reserves) / 158,600,000,000 (Tokens) ≈ 0.9412 per token
At this moment in time should the market exercise a full redemption request (very unlikely), 94 cents is the best they could offer, which is I stress, better than most high street banks. However the argument is not the backing, it is the access to it. Just as with Silicon and Signature banks, Tether appears to have ample liquid assets, but can it access them when it needs to?
If Tether needs to increase its cash position to support the network with real cash during a sudden demand spike, treasuries must first be sold. You may have noticed, but right now buyers for US treasuries are not exactly lining up outside the door to offer America cash. You don’t want to be a large holder of US treasuries during a period of rapid falling demand.
90 day US Bond market is on the verge of collapse. Imagine one of the largest holders of 90 day treasuries at this juncture. Sell into strength, not collapse.
Reason 2 - Inability to meet redemption demands
Tether's peg relies entirely on the market's belief that 1 USDT can always be redeemed for $1 USD, regardless if the liquidity is there. This uncertainly ultimately caused Terra Luna’s stable coin to de-couple. Trust took years to build hours to lose.
If this belief falters, or if the mechanism for redemption breaks even if only for hours, the peg collapses. Bond market exposure introduces several pathways to this breakdown:
Liquidity Mismatch, the "Run on the Bank”:
The Problem: Bonds, even highly rated ones, are not instant cash. Selling large quantities of bonds takes time, and doing so quickly can depress their price, especially if the market for those specific bonds is thin or stressed.
Imagine a widespread loss of confidence in Tether (perhaps due to rumours, a major regulatory action, or a general crypto market crash). Millions or even billions of dollars worth of USDT holders rush to redeem their tokens for actual USD.
The de-peg: If Tether's $120 billion (or a significant portion) is tied up in bonds that cannot be sold quickly enough at their face value, Tether would be unable to meet all redemption requests promptly. This would lead to a backlog of redemptions.
As the market sees that Tether isn't honoring redemptions on demand, panic sets in. USDT holders would then try to sell their USDT on secondary markets (exchanges) for less than $1, accepting a discount just to get out. This is the decoupling.
Reason 3 - An important alignment with " Is Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea
Historically, the relationship between USDT dominance and alt token performance is often seen as inverse. Here's why:
USDT as a "Safe Haven" when the crypto market is in a risk off phase, or experiencing uncertainty, investors tend to move their capital into stable coins like USDT. This increases USDT dominance, as a larger percentage of the total crypto market cap is held in USDT. During such time alt coins often struggle as capital flows out of them.
Capital rotation into alt coins (aka alt season): Conversely, a decrease in USDT dominance is often interpreted as a bullish signal for alt coins. It suggests that capital is moving out of stable coins and into riskier assets, including Bitcoin and then alt coins, in search of higher returns. This period is often referred to as "alt season" where alt coins significantly outperform Bitcoin. (This worked well prior to the Bitcoin ETF as liquidity entered spot Bitcoin, which would then eventually turn to the alt token market. However in this cycle the liquidity is trapped inside ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). But this dichotomy will not arrest the enthusiasm of rose tinted glasses wearing influencers.)
Is it that really true, a general fall in dominance is good for the alt token market?
An overlay of TOTAL2 (market capitalisation of all tokens except Bitcoin) on the chart of Tether Dominance since 2016 (below) reveals a contradiction to this popular belief that declining dominance benefits alt tokens.
The chart clearly shows that strong Tether dominance is necessary for strong alt token market performance, especially after each Halving (vertical yellow lines). Influencers throughout the space are now calling for amazing performance well into 2026, how can this be compatible with a clear trend reversal in USDT dominance?
6 week TOTAL2 compared with USDT dominance since 2016
Why is this change in Dominance a de-pegging risk?
Recall in reason 1 the Bond risk, the time it might take Tether to liquidate treasuries to service redemption requests (remember the business is operating with a small cash position as percentage of their market capital). Keep this number in mind. Now flip over to the “ Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea, notice the bear flag forecast? It calls for a correction of around $200 billion, returning the market to 2017 levels. A 50% correction across OTHERS, if into USDT, would demand the complete liquidation of Tethers Bond position. But why? In a word, contagion. Especially amongst DeFi protocols.
It is worth remembering the OTHERS market total ticker is limited to the top 125 tokens excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, XRP, and BNB. The market will more than likely try to escape into USDT, but what if that is not possible? The supply of Tether tokens is finite. What if the supply is increased to service the sudden demand without the backing?
A loss of confidence. If USDT dominance collapses and alt coins fail, it could suggest a loss of confidence in Tether or stable coins in general.
A de-pegging event: A major de-pegging of USDT from the US dollar (i.e. USDT trading significantly below $1) would be a primary cause. This would erode trust in USDT as reliable store of value and a medium for trading, leading to a mass exodus.
Liquidity criss: USDT is the most widely used stablecoin for trading alt coins. If its dominance collapses due to a lack of trust, it would severely impact liquidity across the alt coin market.
Contagion effect: A collapse in USDT could trigger a wider contagion throughout the crypto system:
DeFi instability. Many DeFi protocols rely on stable coins as collateral, especially USDT. A USDT collapse would lead to liquidation events of a size never seen before in the alt token space.
Bitcoin as the “Ultimate safe haven”. I keep asking myself, where is the liquidity for Bitcoin’s final push to the $145-150k market top coming from? While Bitcoin is volatile as old wallets liquidate their positions at all time highs, in extreme crisis, Bitcoin is often seen as the last resort in crypto due to decentralised nature and first mover advantage.
Reason 4 - The chart
The chart informs us something no user of USDT should ignore. For the first time in its almost 11 year history, dominance has printed:
1. A post Halving dominance collapse. Look left.
2. Broken market structure.
3. A Death Cross (available across multiple time frames)
4. Failed legacy support since 2018.
5. A collection of bearish engulfing and Gravestone DOJI candles.
If an increasing USDT dominance has historically been positive for alt tokens, then a macro reversal implies something very bearish for the alt token market going forward.
Notice the marking for each 4 year cycle alt token end point? Make a note of that!
Ww
Signature Bank before collapse
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
NZDCAD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.82500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 3.29
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
CADJPY LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOI
Weekly rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 105.500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 3.88
Entry 110%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDCHF - Potential downside incominglooking at UCHF we have just swept a level of liquidity.
We have had a Change of Character on the 15min to the downside and left a nice inducement / liquidity level alongside a nice FVG that has left a nice bearish orderblock
Once the spreads calm down I will set my pending order on this level and hope to be tagged into this position.
Due to the time it will be a reduced risk entry as I won't be able to manage the trade during the night.
USDCAD...potential further upside expectedHey Hey TradingView fam! Hope you guys are doing absolutely amazing today...hope your trading weeks are off to an amazing start and hopefully this post can be helpful for the remainder of this week for you! Let's dive in!
OK so for USDCAD this is a post to piggyback off of the previous swing position post I did for USDCAD longs a couple weeks ago...those positions played out well and now wanted to revisit this currency pair because it is giving another potential opportunity to mover to the upside and so wanted to break down what I see here. Let's make it simple
1. Weekly demand zone
2. Strong momentum from buyers on Daily timeframe
3. Higher low formed WITH STRENGTH (big clue of interest)
4. Fib extension lining up with daily supply zone
5. Higher low forming would then now expect a new higher high to form
OK hope that made sense! I want to make these posts as simple as possible so hopefully this added some value for you guys!
Please boost and follow my page for more highly accurate setups! Cheers!
GBPAUD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Daily and Weekly Rejection
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 2.09000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.22
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Stock Index: ES, NQ, YM Weekly Update📈 S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones – All-Time Highs, But Caution Creeping In
🟩 S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow Jones
All three indices hit new all-time highs to close out June.
Powered by:
🔋 AI optimism
💰 Solid earnings
🕊️ Dovish Fed tone and falling bond yields
SPX continued its breakout run
Nasdaq surged as big tech led the charge
Dow followed with slower but steady strength
⚠️ But Watch the Signs Beneath the Surface
Consumer confidence dropped sharply
Home sales weakened
Fed speakers remained non-committal on cuts
All three indices now look extended — particularly Nasdaq
Momentum remains bullish, but these rallies are now resting on softening macro, yield compression, and hope that the Fed stays on hold.
🧠 Key Takeaway
Price action is euphoric — but fundamentals are flashing mixed signals.
When tech leads the market at extremes, volatility risk is elevated.
EURUSD: Another Pullback Trade for Today 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD formed a double bottom pattern on a key daily horizontal support.
Its neckline violation signifies a local strength of the buyers.
I think that the pair may move up and reach 1.1753 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBPUSD Long Re-entry, 07 JulyAsia Fill & Volume-Based Setup
This is a momentum-driven long based on Asia Fill and a strong bullish shift on LTF, with clear DXY correlation. HTF doesn't offer major confluence, but intraday price action supports the idea.
📍 Entry: Waiting for a retest of the 5m OB left behind after a strong bullish move
📈 Confluence: 1m BOS + 15m Extreme OB + high buyer volume
🔁 Risk: Price may not return to 5m OB – if missed, it's a no-trade
🎯 Target: Asia high (but first 1:3 RR), quick BE if we catch the move
Clean setup with structure and volume in our favor – execution depends on retest.
Could Gold slide below 3000?Could Gold slide below 3000?
On the monthly charts, price action shows an imbalance when Gold surged to 3500. Equilibrium must be restored and price action suggests, Gold has to correct by mitigating demand at 2700 price levels. On the weekly and daily charts, there are signs of price weakening suggesting a reversal is not so far. On the daily chart, Gold has mitigated a short term FVG and formed an intermediate low. Once this low is broken, it will confirm our reversal of Gold targeting the monthly FVG at 2760
AUDJPY OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, the AUDJPY has shifted in market structure indicating the long term outlook is bearish. In the interim (weekly), price action is pushing higher to mitigate price inefficiency and fair value gaps. After mitigation, we will look for sell opportunities targeting liquidity below the relative equal lows.
Skeptic | XAG/USD Analysis: Precision Triggers for Spot & FutureHey everyone, it’s Skeptic! 😎 Ready to ride XAG/USD’s next wave? Let’s dive into XAG/USD (Silver) to uncover long and short triggers that can deliver solid profits. Currently trading around $ 36.31 , we’re analyzing Daily and 4-hour timeframes to pinpoint high-probability setups. Here’s the no-nonsense breakdown to keep you sharp. 📊
📈 Daily Timeframe
On the Daily timeframe, we saw a strong primary uptrend sparked by a V-pattern breakout at $ 33.68317 , which drove a 10% rally, as flagged in my previous analyses—hope you caught it! We’re now in a consolidation box, potentially acting as accumulation or distribution. Today’s candle faced a strong rejection from the box ceiling. If it closes this way in 9 hours, the odds of breaking the box floor increase significantly.
Key Supports: If the floor breaks, watch $ 34.78648 and $ 34.41291 as strong reaction zones for potential bounces.
4-Hour Timeframe (Futures Triggers)
On the 4-hour timeframe, let’s lock in long and short triggers:
Long Trigger: Break above resistance at $ 37.29163 , confirmed by RSI entering overbought. Check my RSI guide for how I optimize setups with RSI.
Short Trigger: Break below support at $ 35.59660 , with volume confirmation. Additional confirmation: RSI entering oversold.
Confirmation Timing: Choose your confirmation timeframe based on your style—4-hour, 1-hour, or even 15-minute. I typically confirm triggers on 15-minute closes for precision, but if 1-hour momentum kicks in, I use 1-hour candle closes. Focus on candle body closes, not just shadows, to avoid fakeouts.
Pro Tip: Stick to 1%–2% risk per trade for capital protection.
Final Vibe Check
This XAG/USD breakdown arms you with precise triggers: long at $37.29163, short at $35.59660, with volume and RSI as your allies. The Daily consolidation signals a big move is brewing—stay patient for the ceiling or floor break. Want more cycle-based setups or another pair? Drop it in the comments! If this analysis sharpened your edge, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which Silver trigger are you eyeing? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
USDJPY LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 144.000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 2.91
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
GBPNZD SHORT Market structure bearish at AOi DW
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Weekly
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point at AOi
Around Psychological Level 2.26000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 5.14
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Bullish Maple Syrup (USD/CAD)Setup
USD/CAD has broken below its long term uptrend line and is making lower lows while below the 30 week SMA, indicating a downtrend.
Signal
The daily chart shows a steep downtrend with RSI having twice been oversold at the May and June lows. However, on the most recent re-test of the lows RSI has held up. A double bottom pattern confirmed by a break back over 50 RSI could signal a more sustained bounce.
TRENDLINE BREAKOUT [LONG]In this analysis we're focusing on 4H timeframe. As we know that price move impulse toward upside and break trendline, now I'm waiting for retracement. Once price reach my zone and give any type of bullish confirmation than we'll execute our trade. This is a higher time frame analysis and key levels. Let's analyze more deeply into smaller time frame and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.