GBPUSD - Nearly 1,000 Pips In 2025!GBPUSD was sideways around $1.29452 after a surprise news from the UK caught sterling bulls unprepared. The UK economy surprisingly shrunk by 0.1% in January, month on month, according to the latest GDP figures released by the Office for National Statistics.
With price reaching up into the premium SIBI, there is a chance for a minor pullback. Risky, yet possible with this weeks high impact events
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance.
With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen?
If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario.
Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
$GLD to outperform tech going forward(note for some reason this chart is showing just as GLD, but it's GLD/QQQ)
While I've been waiting for this correction to play out, I've been analyzing stocks and other assets to see what I want to buy for the future.
One thing has caught my attention: As I compare gold to any other chart, gold looks like it's set to outperform pretty much everything (even BTC-- although we're not quite at the point where I'd say fully own gold over BTC as the trend is just starting).
I feel like we're about to get a big monetary reset where our currency is backed by more hard assets. That will lead to commodities outperforming.
For the foreseeable future, gold looks like the better play over tech and the traditional stocks you thought outperformed everything. I could care less about NVIDIA, TSLA and lots of the other names, and while I might have them as a very small portion of my portfolio, I'm really looking at gold and silver miners as the stocks I want to own going into this next part of the cycle.
When you look at the chart, you can see that on the monthly timeframe, we look like we're set to break out of a long term downtrend. Once price can make it over the red cloud, we'll officially be in a new bull trend of gold outperformance. Being it's a monthly trend, I don't see this changing anytime in the near future, so I'll be allocating a large portion of my portfolio to gold/silver and miners.
Enhance Your Trading with Dual MACD OverlaysBy using two MACD overlays—one based on the current timeframe and another on a higher timeframe—you gain a more comprehensive view of market momentum. This approach helps identify short-term opportunities while aligning trades with the broader trend, reducing false signals. As seen in my chart, combining multiple MACD perspectives can improve decision-making and trade timing.
Try it out and refine your strategy with better trend confirmation!
German $DAX ($EWG) Topping Out?Originally posted on 3/12, but blocked b/c I referenced my X account. Looks like a bearish move could be materializing alongside broader risk asset weakness:
Is the XETR:DAX topping out? Monthly RSI @ 80+ w/ weekly nosing over and daily bearish divergences observable. Index high from 3/6 coincided with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 11/2021-10/2022 uptrend correction.
Confirmation short setup could materialize $FDAX closes below pivot low of the 1D uptrend (22226), bounces off of short-term demand (ex: 22142-21691, and trades into supply ≥ 22226. This scenario is speculative - the market needs to show its hand.
Presently, DAX is up > 1.5% alongside US stocks, which dipped into intermediate-term demand and benefited from softer-than-expected CPI prints. However, DAX (and domestic) bulls haven't proven anything yet. Unless buyers manage to push the DAX higher - initially above 22900 and secondarily through 23000-23200 - on accelerating momentum, risk remains to the downside (IMO). German stocks have been global relative strength leaders as of late, so if they do correct, other equity indexes may retreat in tandem.
Long-term charts for US indices ( SP:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX , TVC:RUT ) look more bearish vs. bullish (I still have some shorts on), though a near-term recovery is plausible. If domestic equities do trade lower, selling could materialize in Asian and European markets. Use LTF charts to monitor price action/manage risk and splice into shorts if German stocks AMEX:EWG start to crack.
My $0.02. Feedback welcome.
Jon
XAU/USD 21 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH following printing further all time highs.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or nested Daily and H4 demand levels before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,057.590.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note how price has mitigated M15 demand zones at the extreme of strong internal low. The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 19 March 2025.
Price has continued to surge to new all time highs, largely fuelled by geopolitical tensions, gold is solidifying itself as a safe haven asset.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH to confirm internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has mitigated M15 demand zone. Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 3,057.590.
Alternative scenario:
You will note internal range has significantly narrowed. All HTF's require a pullback, therefore, it would be completely viable if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
RealReal, Inc.On the above bi-weekly chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal (not shown) at $30. Now is an excellent long moment. Why?
1) A strong buy signal (not shown).
2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
3) Bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators are printing positive divergence with price action.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: investment
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: Don’t know
Stop loss: <= 90 cents
CADCHF: Very Bearish Candlestick 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF formed the insidebar pattern after a test of a strong resistance cluster.
Bearish breakout of its range is a strong intraday bearish signal.
I expect a retracement from the underlined area at least to 0.514 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SumiChem , 1W and 1DLooks Very Good in Weekly and Daily Time Frame
Put SL according to your Capital Capacity and Risk Apeatite
Nifty is Also Looking Very Bullish a-, so no one can Stop Breakout Stocks until Nifty comes to consolidation
it is very good pattern , because same pattern is repeating after long time and it is Now Breaking Out from Channel pattern .
follow for more ideas like this swing Breakout Stocks
Bitcoin - Shot-Term Relief Rally to $88k?Pay close attention to bitcoin and the stock index markets. In the past, we have seen closer and closer correlation between the higher timeframe movements of both markets, noticeably Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
Low hanging fruits is important here as we are still trading inside of a range but with the high impact news events releasing this week, its possible for a bullish draw to FWB:88K
Rate Announcement Will Cause EXTREME Levels Of Volatility!With a tremendous amount of high impact news being released next week, you can expect very high levels of volatility especially coming up towards the first rate announcement.
Last weeks price action delivered to the upside as expected but I do still believe there is unfinished business at the 4.343% - 4.404% weekly PD array.
I expect price to expand to the upside following the high impact news being released next week. This can lead to investors chasing higher yields in risk off conditions
Overview on S&P / 6C / 6E / Gold / SilverJust ran down a major overview on where I'm at in responding to a few messages. I left my last scenario mid December where I stated the S&P was overheated and was likely to come down, even if I didn't have a strong enough signal to go for a longer short on the market.
As I had said then, I was mostly interested in the 6E. I made a large chunk off buying the dip on the 6E and cashing out on trends, to include the launch off it recently had. I'm now done with the 6E for the moment.
My current focus is on 6C. The algorithm and math have taken a turn that the 6C is ready to rebound. I entered into it at just under .69, I did have to roll over into the newer contract, but even with the last couple down days, the math still supports a rebound. I almost cashed out today when it had a rough start and fell at .5%, but held through and we have mostly recovered for the day, leaving us with a fairly bearish candle pattern to support the ongoing uptrends pulling is higher.
When it comes to gold, we have multiple trend violations against the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr, and 6hr of lower highs. I expect a downswing to correct these, as they are long overdue for some time now before we move higher. I do believe that Gold is destined for higher, just not yet. I haven't gotten any longer-term signals for gold, so I've mostly been shorting in swing trades to net just a couple thousand on this issue.
I am getting a signal on Silver that it is ready to launch. It is not a flawless signal to show it is ready to meet new highs, so I may watch it tomorrow, but ultimately, I may feel more comfortable jumping into silver over gold for a rebound instead of quick shorts. Also, silver has less margin, so it ties up less of my account.
That is where I sit, hope your trades go well, and remember your risk management.