NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for FOMC?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index continues to move upwards towards 21,000 points, we can look for the next Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Last week, U.S. equity markets experienced $8.9 billion in capital outflows, while equity markets in Japan and the European Union saw net inflows. Additionally, U.S. Treasury bonds recorded an outflow of $4.5 billion—the largest since December 2023. Meanwhile, the gold market witnessed its first weekly investment decline since January.
Looking ahead, financial markets are focused on the upcoming earnings reports from major companies across sectors such as technology, healthcare, automotive, energy, and financial services. These reports are expected to significantly influence equity trends, investment strategies, and corporate outlooks. Below is a daily breakdown of key companies set to release earnings this week:
Monday, May 5, 2025
The week starts with a focus on the healthcare and biotech sectors:
• Before market open: Companies such as Palantir, Ford, Onsemi, and Tyson Foods will report earnings. Palantir and Ford are particularly noteworthy for investors in the tech and auto sectors.
• After market close: Healthcare firms like Hims & Hers Health, Axsome Therapeutics, and financial company CNA Financial will report.
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Tuesday highlights several key tech earnings:
• Before market open: Celsius, Datadog, Rivian, and Tempus will publish their results. Rivian’s report is especially anticipated due to the intense competition in the electric vehicle space.
• After market close: Tech giants like AMD and Arista Networks will release earnings, along with Marriott from the hospitality sector.
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
A packed day for earnings reports:
• Before market open: Reports from Uber and Teva are expected, along with ARM Holdings, a key player in semiconductors.
• After market close: AppLovin, Unity, and Robinhood will release their reports—representing digital gaming, software, and fintech respectively.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
This day centers on digital health, cryptocurrency, and e-commerce:
• Before market open: Peloton and Shopify will report. Shopify’s performance is particularly critical in the online retail sector.
• After market close: Crypto firm Coinbase and online sports betting platform DraftKings are in focus.
Friday, May 9, 2025
Fewer companies will report, but some are of strategic interest:
• Firms like 1stdibs, Ani Pharmaceuticals, and Embecta are scheduled, as well as Telos and Algonquin—key names in energy and cybersecurity investing.
This week, markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. At the March session, the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year, based on its dot plot—suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
Simultaneously, April’s U.S. Services PMI is set to be released today, providing clearer insights into post-tariff business activity.
Amazon’s CEO stated that, so far, there is no indication of reduced demand due to tariff concerns. Some inventory spikes were noted in specific categories, likely driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation. Retail prices, on average, have not significantly increased, and most sellers have yet to raise prices—though that could change depending on how tariff policies evolve. Notably, essential goods have grown at twice the rate of other categories and now account for a third of all unit sales in the U.S.
Following April’s jobs report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June dropped from 75% to 42%. With only one more employment report due before the June 18 meeting, hopes for an early policy shift have faded. Some analysts argue that without the tariff conflict, the Fed might already be cutting rates, given the downward trend in inflation, steady growth, and Congressional focus on fiscal measures.
The April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remains resilient—neither too strong to spark inflation fears nor too weak to trigger panic. After the release, with market confidence rebounding, Goldman Sachs forecasted the Fed’s first rate cut to come at the July 30 meeting.
The consensus expectation is for the Fed funds rate to remain in the current 4.25%-4.5% range, unchanged since January. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns just a 1.8% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
Economists warn that Trump’s newly imposed tariffs—active since April—could drive up prices and hurt employment, challenging the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling both inflation and joblessness. However, recent data shows inflation remained mild in March and the labor market held steady in April.
Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “The data is strong enough for the Fed to stay on the sidelines and monitor how tariffs influence inflation and expectations.” While hard data remains stable, forecasts and sentiment surveys signal looming challenges. Business leaders and individuals express concern that rising costs may burden consumers and businesses in the coming months or years, possibly even tipping the economy into recession.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Skeptic |EUR/USD Analysis: Key Triggers and Setups for Big MovesHey everyone, Skeptic here! Welcome back to another analysis. Today, we’re diving into EUR/USD , a pair that’s super active and sitting at a critical spot. The triggers I’m about to break down could set us up for some solid risk/reward plays. Like always, let’s start with the Daily Timeframe to get the lay of the land. Here we go! 📊
📅 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
On the daily chart, we’ve got a clean upward channel that’s been rock-solid, with the price reacting nicely to the floor, ceiling, and midline. It’s hit the floor 4 times and the ceiling 4 times, so this channel is a reliable trigger we can work with. 💪
The 7-period SMA is hanging out above the candles, showing us the bullish momentum is still in play. Friday’s candle was a bullish indecision candle, which hints at a possible break of the channel’s floor. If that break happens, our first target could be 1.12006 . You can clone the channel and slide it lower to spot your next targets and support levels—check the chart below for a visual. Simple and effective! 🔍
⏰ 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
Let’s zoom into the 4-hour timeframe to find our long and short triggers. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Long Setup 📈
Wait for a solid break above the key resistance at 1.13485 . That’s our green light to jump into a long position.
Targets? We’re aiming for 1.14235 first, and potentially the channel’s midline if the move keeps going.
Quick tip: Take some profits at these levels, but don’t close out too soon—let’s milk those R/R ratios! 😉
Short Setup 📉
On the bearish side, watch for a break below support at 1.12676 , especially if the RSI dips into oversold. That could be a strong short trigger , as it’d also confirm a break of the upward channel, opening the door for a deeper pullback.
Since we’ve had a decent uptrend, this short setup could be extra reliable if the trigger hits. Let’s stay sharp! 🐻
🧠 Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters
A multi-timeframe approach is like having a cheat code for trading. It helps us align the signals we find on lower timeframes with the bigger trends and cycles on higher ones. Want to dig deeper? I just wrote an article on this—definitely worth a read if you want to level up your game. 📚
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
EURCAD: Still Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇨🇦
Last week, we discussed a confirmed bearish breakout of
a major horizontal support on EURCAD.
The broken structure was retested, and I see a strong bearish
intraday price action on an hourly time frame.
Probabilities will be high to see a down movement at least to 1.558 level today.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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USD/CAD: Time to Go Long?On the monthly chart, USD/CAD has found strong support, signaling a potential bullish continuation. With anticipated USD strength in the coming weeks, there’s a clear opportunity for the pair to move higher.
We are targeting 1.40180 as the first objective, with the potential to extend towards 1.41500 if momentum continues.
On the daily chart, the price is showing signs of weakness but also bullish intent, suggesting a possible retracement before a move higher. Ideally, a pullback into the 1.38490 – 1.38450 zone would offer a high-probability long entry.
USDCAD Monthly – Seller Initiative in PlayHey traders and investors!
Take a look at the monthly chart of USDCAD.
The price has been in a sideways range for quite some time, and the seller initiative is currently active.
📌 At the upper boundary of the range, a seller zone (red box) has formed, along with a seller-side Decision bar (IKC), which has now hit the buyer zone (blue box).
⚠️ With this structure, it makes more sense to look for short setups.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Gold is melting downwe are going into corrective wave on Gold on 4H time frame
we finished the first pulse move of this correction wave on 1H TF and most likely the second too
we are now in the third pulse correction move which maybe take gold to 3000
we will sort Gold from this area
sell price around 3,320
stoploss 3,333
Target 3,270
RR 1 : 3
Dow Jones - April ReviewUnlike ES and NQ, YM has the potential to book massive gains if the algorithm was to spool prices higher into the $42,836 lower range FVG in comparison to the others. However, if the market is weaker than many anticipate, YM could be frontrunning the overall stock index pairs (out of NQ, ES and YM) to the downside.
Gun to my head, we are bound for some short term bullish price action back up into the premium array
S&P 500 - April ReviewI see more potential in S&P 500 than Nasdaq for the mere fact that the premium array at $5,773.25 - $5,902.50 has not been met yet but Nasdaq has already made it's way inside of the same SIBI imbalance. (refer to my most recent S&P500 analysis)
Aiming for low hanging fruits for now.
NZDCHF SHORtsEntry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.50000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.98
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Long trade
15 TF overview
📘 Trade Journal Entry — DOGEUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Sunday, 4th May 2025
⏰ Time: 10:04 AM
📍 Session: New York AM
⏱ Timeframe: 30-second chart
🪙 Pair: DOGE/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🎯 Entry Model: 001
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 0.17320
Take Profit: 0.17465 (+0.84%)
Stop Loss: 0.17311 (−0.03%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 16.11
🔹 Trade Context:
Precision microstructure entry on the 30-second timeframe, aligned with entry model 001
Executed during the NY to LND transition when momentum builds and early positioning unfolds.
30sec TF observation
Long trade
📘 Trade Journal Entry — BTCUSD (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Sunday, 4th May 2025
⏰ Time: 9:45 AM
📍 Session: London to New York Overlap (AM)
🪙 Pair: BTC/USD
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 95,393.59
Take Profit: 95,745.20 (+0.37%)
Stop Loss: 95,316.08 (−0.08%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.54
🔹 Trade Context:
Entered during the high-volume overlap between London and New York sessions — a prime window for large institutional moves.
Short trade
15min TF overview
🔹 Trade Context:
📘 Trade Journal Entry — DOGEUSDT (Sell Side)
🗓 Date: Sunday, 4th May 2025
⏰ Time: 5:00 AM
📍 Session: Tokyo AM
🪙 Pair: DOGE/USDT
📉 Direction: Short (Sell Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 0.17411
Take Profit: 0.17311 (−0.57%)
Stop Loss: 0.17445 (+0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.94
🔹 Trade Context:
A quick scalp opportunity, targeting a reaction from the local resistance zone. Executed during the Tokyo AM session, where liquidity often thins and price becomes vulnerable to stop runs and engineered sweeps.
Short trade
📘 Trade Journal Entry — BTCUSD (Sell Side)
🗓 Date: Saturday, 3rd May 2025
⏰ Time: 6:00 PM
📍 Session: New York to Tokyo (PM transition)
🪙 Pair: BTC/USD
📉 Direction: Short (Sell Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 96,016.41
Take Profit: 96,367.58 (+0.91%)
Stop Loss: 96,160.45 (—0.15% )
Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.08
🔹 Trade Context:
Entered during the NY–Tokyo overlap, a transitional liquidity period often ripe for reversals and stop hunts, this was a short-side play aiming to fade into an inefficiency fill.
Long trade
15min TF overview
📘 Trade Journal Entry
SOLUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Saturday, 3rd May 2025
⏰ Time: 5:09 PM
📍 Session: New York PM
⏱ Timeframe: 30-second chart
Pair: SOL/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 146.876
Take Profit: 148.302 (+0.97%)
Stop Loss: 146.838 (−0.03%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 37.53
🔹 Trade Context:
Executed on a 30-second timeframe during the late NY session, where volume often consolidates or traps late shorts for a buyside trade idea.
30sec overview
Long trade Pair BTCUSD
Buyside trade
Sat 3rd May 25
1.30 PM
NY Session pm
Entry 96016.41
Profit level 95952.34 (0.37%)
Stop level (0.07%)
RR 5.53
Reason: Price seemed to be at a pivotal demand zone (FVG) making a sweep of LND liquidity into NY session for a buyside trade idea.
1min TF entry and overview