About the today's bear market of bitcoin - a fundamental analyseSome hints about this chart:
- 4. January 2018 - VISA blocks all bitcoin debit cards...
- End of January 2018 - MtGox deciding to sell 35000 bitcoins...
- at this time (~11.10.2018) Tether USD losts PEG!!! (see my article about on bitcointalk.org )
- at start of next year: MtGox Trustee planning to send the remained the 165000 bitcoins to the market... Trough owners, they had this bitcoins before 2014 buyed. At maximum 1200 dollar, but mostly agains 15 - 300 dollars... They would like to realise a profit - I think.
I see a bear trend since start of this year. google trends speaks also about a very big lost in searching for a word 'bitcoin' ...
Mtgox
Sell-off of Mt Gox stash of bitcoin worth $US1.7 billionKobayashi’s transactions published indicate that the mass sell-off of the Mt Gox BTC was potentially a driving force behind the December 2017 and January 2018 Bitcoin pricing slump.
many are hopeful that with waiting for the next Mt. Gox court date, Kobayashi won’t be able to dump another load of coins on the market. But, in fact, the September 18th court hearing is irrelevant
because Kobayashi already has been authorized to sell-off meaning he doesn’t have to wait to off-load more coins. But perhaps waiting anyway. In any case there will be a mass dump at some point.
It emerged that the trustees of bankrupt Japanese exchange Mt Gox had sold bitcoin holdings worth $US400 million since the end of last year.
Mt Gox has a stash of bitcoin worth $US1.7 billion that will be dumped onto the market at a later date.
BTC Bullish Recovery ModeAfter the Feb 6 capitulation briefly broke through the bottom of the bear channel, BTC has been figuring out what to do next. Too many people took the strong bounce back from $6000 up to $11700 as evidence that we were in a bull market again, but the bounce back from the top of the bear channel sent a clear signal to me that we weren't out of it yet. However, after a brief consolidation, we finally broke free from the bear channel around the first of march, and I was finally coming around to the idea that we might actually be going up...I just didn't expect it to be straight up. There was still too much uncertainty in the market for it to just take off and continue on its way to $20k and above, so I waited to see if we could get a higher high from the $117500 recovery in late February.
Sure enough, it didn't happen. It fell short, peaking at just under $11,700, then rapidly crashing back down to where the $10,000 support line met the top of the bear channel, which gave BTC a day to think about what it wanted to do, before deciding to crash further, breaking through the $9000 support before bouncing off the $8300 support, twice, for good measure. Looking like the $8300 support was staying strong, it tested the top of the bear channel again, hit that resistance and fell back down towards the $8300 level again, but stopped higher than the last double bounce, setting up a clear line of ascending resistance. The bottom of the new bull channel.
Having established the new bottom, it smashed back up through the $9000 resistence and the top of the bear channel, rebounded from the $10k resistance back down through the bear and $9k again to just above the Bull channel resistance once more, before rebounding back up through $9k and bear channel, clearly showing us that the bear channel is no longer relevant at all.
From here I do not expect us to go below the bull support line. Of course I am not certain about this, and can't help but constantly worry that someone will want to push the market back down to the $6,000 bottom again, just to make sure, but I am inclined to think that this new Bull channel bottom line is quickly becoming very well established as the real bottom. There is just too much good news now, too much interest in crypto and BTC, and most of all of the FUD has already run its course (for a little while at least). MtGox can't dump any more coins until September at least, and will probably never dump them on the markets again anyway.
I don't think we're going straight to the moon, but I do think we will keep bouncing between these lines of resistance testing higher highs and higher lows for at least a few weeks to come before some major break out takes us to higher ground and then the next "crash" brings us back down to levels well above $10k.
So I guess I am bullish in the short term, the medium term and the long term from here.
Though, if we break the bullish line, then I will need to reconsider ;)
You Gox to Be Kidding MeFor those who don't know, the now defunct Mt Gox exchange has begun liquidating their BTC and BCH assets. They have roughly 137,000 remaining of each according to the Mt Gox Cold Wallet Monitor.
The most recent sells were on 4/26 and 5/10 and both affected the price noticeably. If they are selling like clockwork, we should see a giant red dildo hit the charts on or around 5/24. Just a heads up, nobody knows their selling strategy for fact. I highly recommend watching Mt Gox's wallets so you can brace for impact.
Keep an eye on the cold wallet addresses here: www.cryptoground.com
Also a little fun math:
8k per sell
137k total
16 Biweekly periods before 2019
137 / 8 = 17.125
So if they sell 8k biweekly, they will have zero left at the very end of 2018 or beginning of 2019. Seems pretty M A T H E M A T I C A L to me.
Happy trading :)
-Doge
Bitcoin new uptrend - Do not believe MT GOX fud....Bitcoin has been bounced from the bottom of ichi cloud. My targets are 9200 and 9800 then btc will try again to push 10K which is a psychological resistance.
If Mt GOX Trustee sells Bitcoin , Somebody buys it thats it... That somebody is buying to gain profit not to lose money... Be smart dont be fool!
Absolutely ENOUGH!!!!!Free fall we definitely did when we sliced right through that support block in my last chart.
Bounce will be commencing shortly, 8100 is the target for this insane dump. Worst case scenario would be 7900-8000 area before the chaos stops. I don't even want to think about any lower, just doesn't seem likely with out a bounce first!
We've had enough ready your positions in alts if that's your thing and get ready for a nice rally. (obviously with stop losses)
Our previous support will now be resistance.
BTC to the pit of Misery! Dilly Dilly -Bearish Triangle formingHide the women and children! There are bears lurking in the general vicinity. Could the Mt Gox rumor be throwing shade at BTC? Will the Bulls hold the line? We are doubtful on the latter, that is definitely a bearish triangle developing...the next support looks as though it is 8050.
xoxo
GoldenParachute
Reason Behind 2013-14 Bitcoin Bear MarketMost people think the Mt Gox Insolvency caused or kicked off the 2013-14 Bear Market for BTC. That's false. It was the Chinese government beginning to impose regulation on the domestic market. It began with a ban on banks and third party payment processors from directly participating in the exchange of Bitcoin to CNY. Exchanges initially closed down. They were using third party payment systems like Alipay and Paypal to conduct transactions.
Eventually the exchanges began reopening and using personal Chinese bank accounts to continue business. OKCoin and Huobi were the first to reopen, with BTC China lagging behind hoping to get more clarity from the government. By delaying reopening, BTC China lost its position as the top exchange in China. Up until the PBOC notice on Dec 5th, BTC China dominated trading volume.
And the most interesting confluence goes to! BTCUSDThe 3.618 measured from $0 to the 2013 ATH & The 0.786 measured from $0 to the 2017 ATH
$5 difference.... Interesting, right?
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The big question on all our minds, where is the bottom? Unfortunately there is no correct answer. The market makers will force sell offs until they can't force any more. Then, and only then, will price reverse.
We speculators will do our jobs regardless, we will speculate, we will trade the trend and make a living off the micro (or not so micro) movements.
Note: The current long term support is the weekly 50 moving average. Open and close a weekly candle under that and I expect we see the 0.786 / 90 moving average.
The real question you should be asking yourself is;
Do I believe in bitcoin long term? If the answer is yes, then now is the time to start Dollar Cost Averaging down.
Why wait for the bottom and average up? That makes no sense right, and what if the bottom is already in and you missed it?
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I am bullish long term. In case you hadn't noticed. "Target sir?" $32K by 2020, conservatively.
P.S I changed the background of my chart to reduce strain, I must be getting old.
Let's be clear. Nano/BTCHello, I'm back.
Let's recapitulate the events in this wonderful world of cryptocoins:
1 - Bitcoin grew potentially 95% from 6 June until 20 February. At that moment every market was creating positive expectations, everyone was hopeful. It was exactly on February 20 that Nano showed in 3 days a booming growth of exactly 171%, everything seemed to be great. Behold, from 21 to 23, Bitcoin had a 17% pullback, just as the Nano reached its peak of 171% and the next day fixed 29% of its historic jump.
2 - From the 24th we can see loss of volume of purchase in both Bitcoin and Nano and when nobody wants to buy, the trend is the sale, despite the volatility the chart wanted to show us something, gave us a clue based on probability, both showed low trend geometric patterns. Nano promptly formed a pennant with drop projection to a tier of pricing that I sincerely hope I do not see. Dow Theory: The chart discounts everything, including the Binance hack, The Securities and Exchange Commission FUD. Bitcoin has finally formed an 'M' pattern with drop projection for the 6800USD as you can see on the chart:
3 - I warned in my last posts some fundamentals that stated that Bitcoin would grow significantly and then fall significantly.
In the meantime, regulators are poised to fill their pockets, after all US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in communion with heads of state from France and Germany will discuss exactly that in the face of the top 20 economic powers in the world. To a lot of libertarians, this is an ideological insult. For players it's just one more way to take advantage of the time to make money.
The administrator of MT Gox has sold half a billion bitcoin cash and bitcoin between December 2017 and February 2018 to pay the creditors. He sold the first batch of 6k bitcoins on December 22, sending the price to almost $ 10,000 which later settled to $ 16,000. So he expected the market to recover to sell another batch of bitcoins, 8k on Jan. 17. What again produced the same effect, a crash hit the price of bitcoin. Kobayashi then makes another sale on January 31, this time for about 6k bitcoins. The vast majority of bitcoins were sold on February 6, which implies that they actually tried to stop the market by selling in the background. Total value of BTC sold are 43 billion JPY ($ 405 million). This leads me to believe that they sold enough BTC to pay the debt to the creditors and will not sell more BTC soon (they have not sold anything for more than a month). Today is Blockchain Africa Conference 2018 and cryptocoins are increasingly cheaper.
While Nano continues in accumulation, chart information only shows us the trend channel, the respective targets that will be gradually reached as Bitcoin moves.
I have no interest in operating under these conditions.
Thank you for your time
Heffæ's Clouds, spotting an invalidated path.My last video comparing the 2013-2014 Daily cloud to the current 3Day cloud showed a potential run up to the 13.6 range if the path stayed valid.
It did not! Here is my current analysis and why I am sticking to the current Daily, as well as much shorter timeframe clouds for signals.
Bitcoin before Mt. Gox & Now
From what I've learned of technical analysis so far, chart patterns have a habit of repeating themselves. These snapshots of BTCUSD just before the Mt. Gox collapse and now seem strikingly similar, and there are similar levels of uncertainty surrounding some of the major crypto exchanges these days due to the ongoing confusion with tether. Do these exchanges actually have the billions of USD that bitcoin is supposed to be worth?
Comments welcome
What are you seeing today?What are you seeing today? Its a bubble?
2010:
2011:
2012~2013:
2014:
Today:
more consolidation could will come if ETF is not approved on 11th March 2017... some buying opportunity on dips which could still go to $700 to re-test
but I could see a really vertical pump if it is approved... and crash like 2014
BTC/USD Price vs Adoption – $4k to $54k by 2020This chart gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. I hope it gives you one too. In the black since $333!
The general idea is that the value of bitcoin increases with adoption. So far the best indicator of that has been transaction volume. For a period of time we were way higher than the true value of bitcoin because of the Willy Bot scandal at Mt. Gox artificially inflating price. Thus the prolonged bear market was simply price resynchronizing with fair value. We're there right now.
Where do you think adoption will go from here? Faster, same as 2012-2016, or slower? Will scalability efforts keep up with demand? Will on-chain transaction volume continue to match price or will we see more off chain transactions (lightning network, sidechains, etc)?
Something's stirring in the gold marketA break above 1180 could signal the end of the secular bear market within the larger bull market of gold, as for the first time gold made a higher high price since it fell from a peak of 1900.
Current price action is considerately overbought, but every dip was bought up given the fear and global macro.
Next few days we might potentially see Dollar correcting by at least 3% and this will be the catalyst of a 'higher-high' in Gold vs USD ratio.
Yes I'm aware, analysis such as Harry Dent is calling for $700 gold. I'm unconvinced. Deflation is the trend in the global economy and gold is an inflation hedge. So why would gold go up when the global economy is deflating?
Link: economyandmarkets.com
Simple, central banks all around the world are stuck.
In the midst of a market crash and interest rate were still at 0%, not even QE is having any significant impact in countries like Japan and Europe. Markets are in untested water! They have no other gunpowder to stimulate the economy right now.
Historically gold rallies in times of a rising interest rate since it is an inflationary hedge, and interest rate rises because the economy is heating up.
Market expectations are changing. From a strong dollar as a result of Janet Yellen not wanting to lose her confidence by rising rates, to macro fears about the global economy. People will be expecting rates to be dropped, or even negative in the following months.
What if the interest rate were to be negative if Central Banks run out of options?
What if more QE was done?
Why would anyone still want to keep their money in insolvent banks and be charged at a monthly fee?
Gold isn't just a commodity, it is also a form of money beyond the control of any entity like Bitcoin. The correlation impact of the economy to gold will be pretty insignificant, considering the bigger picture as a hedge against a risk.
Some other factors includes only 73,000 ounce of gold remaining in the vaults of COMEX as of 2nd Feb 2016. 542 ounce of paper gold owner backed by just 1 ounce of physical gold.
What if these people starts asking for their gold back with the paper contracts they bought? You can expect a default ahead in the exchange just like the infamous bitcoin exchange, MtGox.
It is simply an accident waiting to happen!
Mike Maloney: www.youtube.com