Opening (IRA): MU Nov 15th 95 Covered Call... for a 92.53 debit.
Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains somewhat decent here at 45.2%. Selling the -80 delta call against long stock to emulate the metrics of a 20 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 92.53/share
Max Profit: 2.47
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test.
MU
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MU before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $6.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MU: Trading Around a Critical Resistance Level!Since MU broke through its reversal point at $91.47, the stock has entered bullish territory, and has now reached our technical target at $111, which was set in our last public analysis on September 18, when the price was around $88 (link below this post).
Now that the technical has materialized exactly as expected, according to the evidence we had at the time, we can update our reading.
Daily Chart (Left):
Resistance at $111: The price has reached its resistance at $111, however, it needs to close above it to confirm a true breakout. If a top signal materializes below this area, then a pullback might occur.
Support at $96.18: Should a pullback occur, the $96.18 level, aligned with the 21-day EMA, can provide support. The price is comfortably trading above this area, which reinforces the bullish momentum.
Gap Resistance at $127.24: If the bullish momentum continues, the next major level to watch is the gap resistance at $127.24. Closing this gap could provide a significant boost for the stock, as it will have cleared a major technical barrier.
Weekly Chart (Right):
Double Bottom Pattern: A clear double bottom is forming around the $85 level, which typically indicates a potential reversal pattern. The price broke through the neckline at $111, but it needs to close above it to confirm this pattern.
Projected Target at $157.54: Based on the double bottom pattern, the potential target is around $157.54. This key point is the next technical resistance.
Conclusion:
MU is in a bullish phase, trying to break through the $111 resistance. With the double bottom pattern in play, the stock has room to test the $127.24 gap resistance and potentially extend toward the $157.54 target. However, should watch for possible top signals, as this could bring a pullback to the $96.18 support area, which may offer buying opportunities if the trend remains intact.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Micron Stock Soars 15% on Robust AI Demand and Strong OutlookMicron Technology (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) has made waves in the market following its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, signaling a powerful comeback driven by robust demand in the AI sector. As a major supplier of memory chips, especially for Nvidia, Micron's performance not only beat Wall Street expectations but also positioned the company to achieve record-breaking revenue in the upcoming quarter. Shares surged more than 15% in premarket trading as global chip stocks rallied in response to the earnings report.
AI Fuels Micron's Impressive Growth
Micron's fourth-quarter revenue skyrocketed, reaching $7.75 billion, a nearly twofold increase compared to the same period last year. This growth can be directly attributed to the soaring demand for AI-driven technologies. The company swung to a profit of $887 million, or $0.79 per share, a stark contrast to last year’s $1.43 billion loss. The results exceeded analysts’ estimates, signaling a strong foothold in the AI market.
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra confirmed that the surge in demand is primarily from the AI sector, propelling Micron into fiscal 2025 with the "best competitive positioning in the company’s history." Looking ahead, the company expects first-quarter revenue to land between $8.5 billion and $8.9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 between $1.46 and $1.62 also highlights Micron's potential to sustain this impressive growth trajectory.
Micron’s partnerships with AI giants like Nvidia, alongside the launch of its HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) chips, have been pivotal. These memory chips are essential for AI data centers and machine learning processes, further cementing Micron's role in the future of AI technologies. Notably, the company reiterated that its HBM chips are sold out through 2024 and 2025, showcasing the robust demand and limited supply of key memory components.
Global Chip Rally: Micron’s Surge Sparks Global Optimism
Micron's stellar results sent ripples through the global semiconductor market. Shares of rival firms Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose sharply in South Korea, with gains of over 4% and 9%, respectively. SK Hynix further boosted market confidence by announcing the mass production of its own HBM chips, designed for AI applications. The positive outlook extended to Europe as well, where Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML saw shares jump 4%, along with other industry players like Be Semiconductor and STMicro.
This surge highlights that Micron's strong earnings report is not just a victory for the company but also a signal of sustained AI demand, driving optimism across the semiconductor space.
Technical Outlook: (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) Breaks Through Key Levels
On the technical front, Micron's stock is showing strong bullish momentum. In premarket trading, NASDAQ:MU is up 15.44%, pushing it above its recent resistance levels and one-month high. The stock has now crossed its support pivot, positioning it to target the next significant resistance level around $130.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that NASDAQ:MU still has room to run, as it remains neither overbought nor oversold. The daily price chart is also signaling a gap-up pattern, which is a key bullish reversal indicator. This pattern suggests that NASDAQ:MU may have successfully transitioned out of its recent downtrend, with the potential for further gains as the stock forms a more balanced and sustained upward trajectory.
Moreover, the stock's strong earnings report and upbeat future guidance provide fundamental backing for this technical breakout. As NASDAQ:MU breaks through these key levels, it opens the door for a sustained rally, especially with the AI demand narrative continuing to dominate the semiconductor sector.
Micron Poised for a Bull Run
Micron Technology's robust earnings, driven by its crucial role in the AI supply chain, have propelled the stock to new heights. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) is poised for continued growth, especially as AI demand shows no signs of slowing down. With a record-breaking revenue forecast for the current quarter and strong technical signals pointing toward further gains, investors can look forward to a promising future for Micron in the booming AI era.
As the AI revolution continues, Micron's positioning as a key supplier of memory chips for AI applications will likely drive sustained growth, making NASDAQ:MU a stock to watch closely in the coming months.
What You Need to Know Ahead of Micron Technology Earnings ReportMicron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after market close today, Wednesday, September 25, 2024. Investors are eagerly anticipating this report, as it could provide crucial insights into the state of the memory chip industry and the broader tech sector.
Key Takeaways:
- Analysts expect Micron (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) to swing to a profit this quarter, with year-over-year revenue expected to almost double.
- Key metrics to watch include inventory levels and guidance for the next quarter.
- Micron's relationship with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and its role in the AI hardware space is expected to be a central focus.
Earnings Expectations:
For Q4 2024, analysts are forecasting revenue of $7.65 billion, a substantial jump from the $4.01 billion reported in Q4 2023. This rise is largely driven by the growth of Micron’s memory chips used in AI data centers and high-performance computing systems. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at 84 cents, a significant improvement from last year’s loss of $1.31 per share.
1. Revenue Growth:
Micron (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) is expected to post significant year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by strong demand for AI-related memory chips. The company's partnership with Nvidia has been a key driver in this sector, as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers continues to see robust demand. Analysts believe Micron’s growth trajectory will be further accelerated by the ongoing AI boom.
2. Profitability:
After reporting losses last year, Micron (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) is anticipated to return to profitability with net income of $1 billion for the quarter. This marks a major turnaround, thanks to increased demand for high-performance memory and storage solutions used in AI, edge computing, and data centers.
3. Inventory Levels:
One key area to watch will be Micron’s inventory levels. The company has been dealing with growing inventories as demand for legacy memory chips has waned. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley recently lowered their price targets for Micron (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) due to concerns about high inventories and weak demand for older memory components. However, analysts expect inventory issues to ease by the end of the year, with improvements in gross margins and revenue in the coming quarters.
Business Outlook:
Looking ahead, analysts are optimistic about Micron’s potential growth. The AI-driven upgrade cycle is expected to drive demand for edge devices and data center memory solutions, while a possible server refresh could also provide tailwinds. Analysts estimate that Micron (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) will generate $8.4 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with EPS expected to rise to $1.45.
Market Sentiment:
Despite these positive views, some caution remains in the market. While Micron’s stock has gained about 10% year-to-date, it has also faced volatility, especially in the wake of mixed earnings reports from its competitors, such as Broadcom and Nvidia. This has led to reduced enthusiasm for the AI trade, though a positive earnings report today could reignite investor interest in AI-related semiconductor stocks.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) is showing signs of bullish momentum. As of today, the stock is up 1.50%, rebounding from a presumed downtrend. It is trading within a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a bullish reversal indicator. If Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) delivers a positive earnings surprise, the stock could break through the upper boundary of this pattern, leading to a potential rally toward its 200-day moving average around $105 and possibly higher toward the $130 resistance pivot.
Key Technical Indicators:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently sitting at 52.00, the RSI indicates a neutral stance, but given the earnings catalyst, the stock is poised for a potential breakout.
- Support Levels: The stock has solid support around $86. A drop below this level could signal further downside risk.
- Resistance Levels: Overhead resistance is found near $100, with the 200-day moving average acting as the next significant level to break around $105.
Investor Sentiment:
Investor sentiment in the options market has grown increasingly bullish in recent weeks. Call options far outweigh put options, with large positions held at the $95, $100, and $155 strike prices, expiring shortly after the earnings report. This suggests that traders are betting on a positive earnings outcome that could propel the stock higher.
Conclusion:
Micron’s earnings report later today is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the company and its investors. Strong results driven by demand for AI-related memory chips could not only send the stock higher but also restore broader enthusiasm for the AI trade, which has faltered in recent months. However, traders will need to keep a close eye on inventory levels, management’s guidance, and market sentiment to assess the stock's future direction.
In short, Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MU ) may stand at the cusp of becoming one of the biggest bargains in the semiconductor space, with upside potential fueled by AI and data center demand, but tempered by near-term concerns over inventories and legacy products.
MU - Back above $100 soon?MU has been basing in the $80-90 range all month. This coincides with support from early in the year. Above $91.05 which puts it above the 300 day SMA. If fit holds this level, I believe this can make a strong move back above $100. 1st target is $98, a hold there and the 2nd target is $109.
Is NVDA the catalyst for the market?NVDA just had a bearish crossover of the 20 & 50 MA (Daily chart)
Last time we saw this bearish moving average formation was in early August.
NVDA proceeded to fall sharply in the coming days.
All eyes on the market leader. All eyes on the QQQ.
Will the Q’s be the demise of SPY?
If Nvidia sees anymore weakness you can be sure it will have other semis following suit.
Risk to reward in the near term is clear.
MU: Micron Inc death crossThe purpose is to analyze DEATH CROSS impact on MU day chart. It is remarkable that this time a death cross print is almost simultaneously by both 50&200 EMA and 50&200 SMA with a lag of just one day. As a rule, I look for a death cross whichever moving average pair print it earlier, as the other pair would be typically too late to the show (it can be 'either or' depending on magnitude of most recent price actions for EMA pair).
This time both pairs print it simultaneously and I would argue that this time both are REMARKABLY late! As a matter of proof, I analyzed RELATIVE slope of MU bear markets that with a death cross, versus percentage the price had yet to retreat since the death cross print day until bottomed.
There were approximately few of them (scroll back the chart to certain periods indicated below).
November’14 – February’16 ~65%
May’18 – December’18 ~32%
April’21 – October’21 ~12%
January’22 – September’22 ~30%
And current June’24 – September’24 ???
On the right hand side of the chart, relative slopes of each bear market trendline are given. Looking at a relative steepness and rapidness of the June – September decline comparing to past periods, I would consider that this time both pairs of moving averages are lagging way behind and the death cross is too late to the show to indicate any extra percentage of price decline. i.e. the stock has bottomed and is already in upswing.
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
MU: A Dangerous Inflection Point! (D&W charts).Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, MU is trading within an ascending channel, a bullish indicator suggesting an uptrend continuation. The recent price action has tested the lower boundary of this channel, around 133.30, a critical support level that was a previous resistance, as evidenced by the red arrows – another example of the Principle of Polarity. The price rebounded from this support, highlighting its significance.
A sustained move above this level could push the stock higher within the channel, potentially targeting the recent highs around 157.41. The only thing missing is a clear bottom signal (there isn't any so far). However, a break below 133.30 could signal a potential shift in trend, leading to a deeper correction in the weekly chart.
Weekly Chart:
In the weekly chart, a shooting star pattern is observed, a bearish reversal signal that often appears at the top of an uptrend. This pattern indicates a potential top, especially if followed by a bearish confirmation in the subsequent weeks.
The current weekly close below the low of the shooting star reinforces the possibility of a correction (however, this week isn’t over yet). If the price continues to decline, the next significant support level to watch is the 21-week EMA, which has previously acted as a dynamic support.
Conclusion:
Integrating both time frames, MU is at a crucial juncture. The daily ascending channel suggests a bullish bias, but the weekly shooting star pattern warns of a potential correction.
If the price holds above the key support of 133.30 on the daily chart, it could resume its upward trajectory within the channel. However, failure to maintain this level might lead to further downside, aligning with the bearish implications of the weekly shooting star.
Fow now, we should monitor these levels closely to gauge the stock's next move, balancing the bullish potential of the ascending channel with the caution warranted by the shooting star pattern.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MU:
nor calls ahead of the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-28,
for a premium of approximately $9.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Micron Release Quad-Port SSD For Next-Gen Intelligent VehiclesMicron Technology, Inc., ( NASDAQ:MU ) a global leader in memory and storage solutions, has unveiled a groundbreaking advancement in storage technology with the introduction of the automotive-grade Micron 4150AT SSD. This quad-port SSD promises to reshape the landscape of intelligent vehicles, offering unparalleled performance and efficiency for AI applications at the remote edge. As Micron prepares to navigate market shifts, including price hikes and evolving competition, its innovative strides position the company as a key player in the semiconductor industry.
Revolutionizing Intelligent Vehicle Storage:
The Micron 4150AT SSD represents a significant leap forward in intelligent vehicle technology. As the world's first quad-port SSD, it streamlines storage infrastructure by connecting with up to four systems on chips (SoCs), centralizing storage and optimizing performance for AI applications. With enterprise-class speeds and multi-port capability, this SSD enables efficient data management across multiple systems, essential for tasks ranging from advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) to in-vehicle infotainment (IVI).
Addressing Market Demand for AI and Autonomous Safety Technologies:
Michael Basca, Micron's vice president of Embedded Products and Systems, underscores the necessity of a new storage paradigm to meet the escalating demands of AI and autonomous safety technologies. The Micron 4150AT SSD emerges as a solution tailored to these requirements, offering enhanced performance, power efficiency, and security crucial for the advancement of intelligent vehicles.
Navigating Market Dynamics:
In response to market dynamics, Micron ( NASDAQ:MU ) has announced plans to increase the prices of its DRAM and SSD products by over 25% in the second quarter. This strategic move aligns with anticipated market corrections and underscores Micron's commitment to maintaining profitability amidst evolving industry landscapes. Analysts predict stable pricing for SSDs in most end markets, highlighting Micron's resilience and strategic positioning.
Dominance in Semiconductor Industry:
Analysts have lauded Micron ( NASDAQ:MU ) for its advancements in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology, positioning the company as a formidable force in the semiconductor industry. With superior thermal and power efficiency compared to competitors, Micron's HBM3E is poised for significant market penetration, potentially surpassing $1 billion in revenue by 2024. Micron's stock performance, gaining over 93% in the past 12 months, reflects investor confidence in its innovative capabilities and market leadership.
Conclusion:
Micron's introduction of the 4150AT SSD marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of intelligent vehicle technology. As the company navigates market shifts and positions itself as a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, its commitment to innovation and strategic foresight will continue to drive growth and shape the future of automotive technology. With the Micron 4150AT SSD leading the charge, intelligent vehicles are poised to achieve new levels of performance, efficiency, and safety in the era of AI-driven mobility.
Technical Outlook
Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) is trading above the 200, 100, and 50-day Moving Averages (MA) respectively with a strong Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 66 indicating a strong buying momentum from investors.
Micron Technology's ($MU) Shares Reached New HighsMicron Technology's ( NASDAQ:MU ) shares have reached a new high after Bank of America raised its price target for the stock. The report from Bank of America stated that Micron is poised to gain from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, as the company's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is crucial for AI technology. Bank of America has named Micron, Marvell Technology, and Advanced Micro Devices as "junior samurAI" companies that are likely to gain from the AI boom, following the firm's "top picks," Nvidia and Broadcom.
Bank of America has increased its price objective for Micron from $120 to $144 per share and reiterated a "buy" rating, as the company's potential to expand its HBM market share behind its Korean peers presents an opportunity for growth. The report also noted that the "junior samurAI" companies trade at a valuation premium to their respective leaders, which could result in greater stock volatility but also create profitable niches.
Micron's shares ( NASDAQ:MU ) were up by almost 7% to $125.74 at 11 a.m. ET Monday, after earlier hitting an all-time high of $127.38. The stock has gained 53% year-to-date, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 81.71 indicating an overbought situation or continuation of the current trend. Nvidia, a leader in the AI race, has already established itself as a major player in the field, with the companies within its AI ecosystem experiencing gains amid surging AI demand.
Overall, Bank of America predicts that the accelerator market will increase to $200bn over the next three years, which could create opportunities among the second-tier vendors. Despite the volatile nature of the market, Micron's position in the HBM market, combined with the growth prospects of the AI industry, make it an attractive investment opportunity.
MU breaks through ATHs Bullrun does not relent LONGMU on the monthly chart 4 weeks ago crossed above the previous ATHs of 2021-2022 and has
risen without retesting. Adding $9 to the all time highs for 10% inflation since then would adjust
them to $104 and price is now in that range and above. Price is in the uppermost anchored
VWAP bands and thus prone to reversal. However, MU is not as overextended as NVDA. Its
upside is likely there as it competes in the space. Growth will accelerate once the new chip
plant in upstate NY comes online after the construction is completed. NVDA is reportedly
looking at Vietnam. I already have a large sized position in MU. I will add to it now even
if it may be overbought. There is good cause for the overbuying. I want to support the domestic
economy and understand national security interests in chip manufacturing here in the USA
consistent with the recent federal law and stimulus associated with it.
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MU:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 95usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $9.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.