MU
Micron Short - Rising wedge pullbackMicron (MU) has had a monster run, now it looks time that the longs will take profits.
MU is in a rising wedge and has shown a high degree of excess exuberance, i would be looking at either taking your long profits now and wait for a pullback to the 9 ema, or i would look for a short trade with the same target in mind.
Personally i would favor the latter as the broader market also looks set for a sell off (i talk about hedging SPY also) and given micron has quite a high relative beta, this should drag MU down also.
MU Faces Resistance After Momentum Run out of Basing BottomMU retested its bottom lows; it will find support at a higher level after reaching above the top red line drawn on the chart. The Basing Bottom created sufficient hidden momentum as the stock gapped and ran vertically up to resistance.
Micron (MU) - The Trend is your FriendMU retested the ~ $36 break-out twice and has since headed higher. A solid close above $46 could indicate continued strength and a push towards $58-$60 would be the next target.
Micron has remained within it's trend and break-out. Mgmt. has indicated they are in the early innings of the data demand which they have suggested could last until 2025. Recent mergers in the sector signal MU would be worth over $100. Strong balance sheet, share repurchases, and structural demand suggest this is a stock to watch going forward.
MU - LONG - Double bottom to 52.50- Double bottom at support. Micron is ready to fly, but I will wait a lite pullback at 35.00-35.50
- Strong stock on strong indusrty (Semiconductor). MU as been upgraded by Needham, from hold to buy at 50.00 as target.
- Very trong fundamental :
> P/E 3.57
> EPS : 157.6% this year
Waiting for a lite pullback to buy and fly to 52.50 as potential and at is all time high at 64.50.
I will update it regularly. Follow MU for development.
I wish you a great trading day!
Waz-
MU strongBeautiful movement with MU. Looks like it moved away from that heavily bought/sold area marked R1 - With good China news - could be the fuel it needs to get above that and make a new found support. $40's sooner than later IMO
ABBV Sell Vacuum - Understanding Climaxes and VacuumsABBV is selling off this week in a third leg down from the buy climax and all time high. Although it looks strong at first glance, this is more likely a sell vacuum (sell climax) than the start of a strong bear breakout. A vacuum is created when strong bulls step aside and wait for prices to reach a location they want to buy, and the strong bears continue to hold for the same price level (and some continue to sell). This creates a temporary one sided market. This sell off is likely a test the previous converging triangle, and middle of the trading range preceding the bull breakout. The bulls will look to form some sort of double bottom which could be a failed breakout below the 60 or 50 lows, or an actual double bottom. If there is a reversal up next week, it would form a parabolic wedge bull flag, bears will look to take profits and bulls will look to re-establish longs. If instead there is continued selling and a strong breakout below the 50 low, the bears will likely get a test of the opening tight trading range around 40.
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MU watching Semi's this week with G20 newsMU has been beaten down for far too long - considering the amount of cash they make.
RSI coming up nicely but hoping to move to the top of that new found range it's been trading in, then the real test of R1 & R2.
Watching from the sidelines till something convincing takes place but if MU moves lower, I'm willing to enter at high $20's.
Patience with MU from my experience - So volatile with memory news with every little concern feeling like blows to the gut - most of which is overplayed IMO - as is a lot of things with the market I guess!
GLTA
Bro, Micron about to Pop SoonAscending Triangle Pattern NASDAQ:MU
Inverse Head and Shoulder - apply the distance upward from the tip of the head to the neckline to get a target of $47.15 with an accurate target of $46.62
(I know the H&S is months old but the target remains the same.)
Thinking about this for awhile before I consider pulling the trigger on some calls.
Thanks for visiting.
30 Year Micron Chart... Very InterestingWe are currently sitting on the original kick-off line dating back to 1993. This line may provide the support for an eventual move towards the 2000 ATH of 98+
"I'll take 'Stocks' for $200 Alex"A: What is Nvidia?
This is a $200 stock. Thinking we will move up through the flag/wedge we've been forming. Hoping for a reach and ride along the multi-year kickoff trend line used as a stepping stone to potential ATH in the somewhat distant future.
Long @135, looking for 225 at least. Will begin selling 225 covered calls against my position close to the $200 level.
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, XOP, MU, IWMTrade of the Week (May Cycle):
Pictured here is an EWZ (29/34) May 17th 37/45 short strangle: 1.14 credit, .57 at 50% max, break evens at 35.86/46.14, delta -1.46, theta 2.87.
Obvious Alternatives: EWZ May 17th 41 short straddle, 3.91 credit, .98 at 25% max, break evens at 37.09/44.91, delta -4.6, theta 4.01.
Notes: Pros: High implied, high implied relative to broad market (i.e., SPY 16/13), non-closely correlated with broad market (.4 3-month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
Exchange-Traded Funds
XOP (20/30): May 17th 31 short straddle, 2.67 credit, .67 at 25% max, break evens at 28.33/33.67, delta 1.89, theta 2.73.
Obvious Alternatives: May 17th 29/33 short strangle,* 1.15 credit, .57 at 50% max, break evens at 27.85/34.15, delta 2.07, theta 2.29.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market, non-closely correlated with broad market (.3 3-month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
XBI (21/26): May 17th 84/97 short strangle,** 2.48 credit, 1.24 at 50% max, break evens at 81.52/99.48, delta -.26, theta 5.62.
Obvious Alternatives: May 17th 79/84/97/102 iron condor, 1.65 credit, .83 at 50% max, break evens at 82.35/98.65, delta -3.15, theta 2.47.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market. Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror
MU (10/40): May 17th 37/47 short strangle, 1.36 credit, .68 at 50% max, break evens at 35.64/48.36, delta .86, theta 3.41.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market, non-closely correlated (.42 3 month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within its 52-week range.
Other Passing Observations:
Broad market volatility remains in low gear here with VIX finishing the week with a 13.71 print, although VXN is at 16.62, and RVX at 17.80, so "the frisk" is in small caps with the IWM (20/18) short strangle nearest 25 delta in the May cycle -- the 147/159 -- paying 3.02 at the door and 1.51 at 50% max and the 142/147/159/164 iron condor paying 1.76, .88 at 50% max.
* -- I'm in a May 17th 28/33 short strangle. (See Post Below).
** -- I'm in the May 17th 80/85/98/103 iron condor. (See Post Below).
SOX - A Tale of Three ChannelsPretty clear long term channels dating back to 2000 and 2003. Plus a steeper near term growth channel has formed between two uptrend lines, confirmed with multiple touches. Looking for SOX to step up into new highs and for much of the past resistance to become support.
(1) - Looks as though this move down may have already occurred this week and we found some decent support at the old resistance Downtrend line.
(2) - Looking for a move higher and possibly a fake break above the Growth Channel.
(3) - Pull back to and retest of the 2018 ATH
(4) - If we reach these levels we would be looking for some confirmation by either moving higher within the Growth Channel or a break above.
(5) - Probably a good chance of testing lower after these levels. Probably a return to lower Growth Channel band.
Time Frame: 1-6 Months
THE WEEK AHEAD: TLRY, MU, CAG EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJThree earnings announcements interest me this coming week from a volatility contraction standpoint: TLRY (--/79),* announcing on Monday after market close; MU (45/51) -- Wednesday after market close, and CAG (86/45), Thursday, before market open.
CAG: Pictured here is a CAG April 18th 22/24/25 Jade Lizard, which was 1.03 at the mid as of Friday close, giving it a downside break even of 20.97 with no upside risk, since the credit received exceeds the risk of the short call aspect of the setup. It's a bullish assumption, theta positive setup with a net delta of 21.14 and a theta of 1.86.
Since it's gotten totally hammered since last earnings and does pay a dividend (.85 annualized; 3.69% yield), I could also see just going the most straightforward route, which would be short put, with the at-the-money 23 in the April monthly paying 1.11 with a downside break even of 21.89.
TLRY: The April18th 55/60/85/90 iron condor's paying 1.63 at the mid, but I'd be picky and hold out for one-third the width of the wings in credit or pass on partaking, since the markets in the underlying are wider than I'd like. For the young at heart, the 60/85 one standard deviation move break even short strangle's paying 4.11, but would plan on a touch of price discovery if you want in.
MU: The April 18th 40 short straddle is paying 4.53 at the mid and is about as delta neutral as you can get (.78) with a theta of 6.7 and break evens of 35.47/44.53. For those who need more room to be wrong and/or delta balance without going inverted: the 35/44 short strangle is paying 1.43 with one standard deviation break evens on both sides (33.57/45.43).
On the exchange-traded fund front, premium selling is somewhat thin here with GDXJ (34/26), GDX (31/23), TBT (23/20), OIH (21/28), and IYR (19/12) rounding out the type five sorted by rank; XOP (18/29), OIH (21/28), EWZ (5/28), USO (10/27), and GDXJ (34/26), if sorted by 30-day implied. I'm still short straddling XOP (See Post Below), but don't have anything on in gold (GDX, GDXJ), so may putz with something small and nondirectional there. However, neither the GDX nor GDXJ at-the-money short straddles appear to be paying the 10% I generally like to see out of those -- the GDXJ May 17th 32 is paying 2.80 versus a 32.33 share price; the GDX May 17th 22, 1.67 versus a 22.30 share price.
* -- TLRY doesn't yet have a 52-week rank metric, since it hasn't been around that long yet.
MUDRAM index keeps falling, and I think MU double bottoms. Not really a Motley Fool fan, but this is a good article:
www.fool.com
Guidance will suck (like SMTC). That may be what causes the market to dip next week, along with the Fed. Also watch for FedEx earnings (though their issue is mainly costs, not revenue).
Should have bought some puts this morning, but I'm expecting a rally Fri and possibly Monday.
Huge potential on MU!!!MU is about to hit 100 day MA at around 37.59 and there is a Fib resistance lvl at ~37.0
Expect it to run up before March 20th ER. RSI is also falling and is currently at the key mark of 40 for oversold.
1st TP - ~41.5 2nd TP - 42.18 3rd TP - 43.8
1st SL - 37 2nd SL - 34.11
SOLD 3 MILLION SHARES. $25 MILLION PROFITWE WERE AND STILL ARE BULLISH ON MICRON BUT...
OUR AVERAGE COST WAS DOWN TO AROUND $30.77 AFTER LOWERING OUR COST FROM THE HIGHER PRICES WE PAID, UPWARDS OF $59 A SHARE
THE STOCK WENT UP OVER 10 POINTS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
NOW, THE NEGATIVITY RETURNS TO THE CHIP SECTOR FROM DOGS LIKE NVIDIA...WE MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS POST NVIDIA WAS A BUBBLE AND NOW OUR POST IS COMING TO LIGHT
NVIDIA HAS LOWERED REVENUE HOW MANY QTR'S NOW? WE WERE RIGHT WHEN WE POSTED NIVIDA WAS OVER PRICED AND WE ARE STILL RIGHT TODAY!
WE CLOSED OUR ENTIRE MICRON POSITION SELLING 3 MILLION SHARES
AVERAGE COST: $30.77
PROFIT: $25.5 MILLION
WE STILL FEEL MICRON WILL TRADE UPWARDS OF $100 IF YOU HOLD THE STOCK FOR THE LONGER TERM
AS FOR THE BUYOUT, WE WOULD LOVE THE WESTERN DIGITAL / MICRON MERGER RUMOR THAT WE HEARD ABOUT COME TO LIGHT, THAT WOULD BE ONE AMAZING COMPANY COMBINED!
BEST OF LUCK TO THE LONGS!
BULLS MAKE MONEY, BEARS MAKE MONEY, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED! - DON'T BE GREEDY
MU good entryThe central banks decided to buy everything like the BOJ.
That big down move was moving like a correction.
Trade at your own risk!
Micron turn bullish
microns PE TTM is 3.3 very low (good fundamental)
support is forming an upward trend
