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$MU Further to Fall - Bearish Options Activity$MU Micron - Some significant bearish put options activity yesterday far out in time contracts deep in the money. - 15k $40.00 strike June'2020 put options traded vs OI under 2k for $18M in premium - 10k $45.00 strike January'2021 put options traded vs OI of 4.1k for $16M in premium If both trades were the same fund it's possible this was another diagonal calendar put spread similar to some others we've seen this week, buying the 2021 puts at the higher strike with higher delta and selling the 2020 puts at lower strike with lower delta. These creative variations of options strategies can be very interesting. Looking at the long term weekly chart I see two possible targets assuming current downtrend continues: Near term - $27.00 (by mid January) Medium term - $21.50 (by next ER late March) Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
NASDAQ:MUShort
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
3
Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time. Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it. Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline. Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it. Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!! If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets. In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook. Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term: Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested. Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
AMEX:SPY
by croganm
AMD: Is there a case to be shortAn update to my original AMD post We know the semiconductor space is very cyclical, and coming off the back of a number of poor earnings ($MU, $NVDA) it's possible we could see a large slowdown in the space. Tradewar concerns seem to hit these stocks hard, especially due to overseas manufactured chips. It's possible the holiday season could bring in solid Q4 earnings. To me the financials looks neutral with Q3 Revs lower but with a slight beat in EPS. It seems guidance on both Revs and EPS are below for Q4. EV/SALES is 3.6x against a historical peak of 3.0x The technicals look like an unwinding in AMD could ensue should the cycle deteriorate. The comps would begin to tell but going off general sentiment it seems rationalisation of a small short bet down to at least $17 shouldn't be too hard.
NASDAQ:AMD
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
ADDED 1,000,000 SHARES - POSSIBLE BUYOUTWe heard a rumor that at least two to three large chip companies approached Micron about a takeover. Is the rumor true, we are trying to find out. We can say this, after looking at the stocks / P/E's of lesser public companies, in the computer / technology industries and other industries, and then looking at the price of Micron, if the company is not purchased by Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Qorvo (QRVO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Western Digital (WDC), Broadcom (AVGO) or someone else, it will be a miracle. Look at Cracker Barrel (CBRL), trading at 19 x trailing 12 months, with a P/E of $9.00...STOCK PRICE = $172.00 (yes, we understand it's a restaurant - that doesn't change earnings for earnings or P/E for P/E) So, even if Micron sales drop, and E.P.S drops to between $8.00 and $9.00, the stock should be trading upwards of $175..? No..? E.P.S is E.P.S right...? Cracker Barrel has a market cap of only $4.2 Billion while Micron has a market cap of $41 Billion... Look at MCHP, trading at $73.00 with a market cap of only $17 Billion... P/E....? 32 x trailing 12 months...? OMG! Look at QRVO, trading at $63.50 with a market cap of only $7.7 Billion... P/E...? 460.33 x trailing 12 months...? OMG! MICRON is one of a handful, if not the only UNDERVALUED STOCK ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE Corrupt Analysts calling for more of a drop in the price of Micron could soon be kicking themselves in the teeth! We will continue to keep adding Micron to our portfolio at these FIRE SALE PRICES! IT'S REALLY DISGUSTING WHAT IS HAPPENING TO MICRON! WALL STREET HAS MICRON ALL WRONG AND SOON, THEY WILL ALL BE JUMPING OFF BUILDINGS! HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL OUR FOLLOWERS!
NASDAQ:MULong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
6
RAISING POSITION TO 2,000,000 SHARES. UNWARRANTED SELL OFF!Folks, Fake News has Micron Bankrupt while other companies that depend on Micron products, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Data Storage Services, in fact, the entire Technological Infrastructure depends on Memory and Storage to work so if Micron sales are forecast to sink by FAKE NEWS, the entire technology industry will crash with it including Cloud Computing services. This is a case where if you have brains, you know the truth and you BUY! Smart Money is buying Micron at these FIRE SALE prices while weak hands and manipulators are trying to push the stock down. As it stands now, Micron is trading under 3x forward earnings, this by itself is OUTRAGEOUS Wall Street Corruption especially watching AMD triple in price on speculation. We cannot watch the Corruption win, we are moving our position from 1,000,000 shares to 2,000,000 shares Like we said in an earlier post, Corrupt Wall Street will make us BILLIONAIRES! If you look at over 90% of our trades on this board, we haven't been wrong. We've made money on every trade we've closed. A perfect example of Wall Street Corruption is the price of NVIDIA, with an E.P.S of only $6.65 - Trading over $200 a share Even if Micron sales fall, they will still beat NVIDIA E.P.S. The sick part of this story, Micron makes NVIDIA chips along with chips for Western Digital, IBM, Intel and many more companies. We couldn't ask for a better Christmas Gift! P.S. We also think, if the price of Micron stock stays down at these low levels, the company will we bought out! With the cash flow Micron has, along with the positive / rock solid E.P.S, the company is a sitting duck for a BUYOUT at current levels.
NASDAQ:MULong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
1
RAISING POSITION TO 1,000,000 (MILLION) SHARESMICRON is a screaming bargain at current levels with or without a sales decline, with or without an over supply, etc.. WE ARE RAISING OUR POSITION TO 1,000,000 MILLION SHARES We are taking a good guess that we will see Capitulation soon with people panicking and running for the doors for NO GOOD REASON! When you look at the hype surrounding AMD, trading approx. 9 points below MICRON, it makes our argument even more concrete! AMD up over 2 points today now trading around $32.. Dare to Compare..? Advanced Micro Devices has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 80.53X compared to the Electronics / Semiconductors industry's P/E of 18.14X. Within the last 5 qtr's, AMD had the following earnings: 0.45 CENTS Q2 2018 - 0.14 Q1 2018 - 0.11 04 2017 - 0.08 Q3 2017 - 0.10 Q2 2017 - 0.02 Within the last 5 qtr's, MICRON had the following earnings: 12.06 DOLLARS Q3 2018 - 3.15 Q2 2018 - 2.82 Q1 2018 - 2.45 Q4 2017 - 2.02 Q3 2017 - 1.62 DARE TO COMPARE INTEL EARNINGS TO AMD..? What is happening now to Micron as a company / stock is defined as SICK! Wall Street Analysts have lost their minds. This was a setup by Wall Street to cash in on options sold short. It was a HUGE Payday for Short Sellers and absolutely criminal. This is a chance of a lifetime and when Wall Street hands you a HUGE GIFT, know when to accept it, say thank you and RUN TO THE BANK AND CASH YOUR HUGE PAYCHECK!
NASDAQ:MULong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
9