MU in free fall but closer to some supportMU looking bad for SMH stocks. Looks like all these stocks out of favor for a while from here.
MU
Mu update 28 marchprevious targets 63.5 were reached, the bullflag stopping @ 1.61 fibonacci.
Now most probable fall is same as before @47.5 coinciding with the 50 &100 ema. But we could have a ping pong in trend range( blue lines) or inside the support/resistance 38-61 fib. If this support fails then 43.6 is the lowest level to watch for reversal.
The longer trend excluding a major crisis, looks bullish and the target is the same at 78-80 with a pause @65-68, for now we will be waiting for long term confirmation either with a strong rebound at the previous mentioned levels or breaking above the blue channel ~59.
What will Micron (MU) do over the next 72 hoursHere is my best guess at a path for Micron (MU) between now and the close on 3/22.
It appears we have completed wave 3 of a large 5 wave impulse pattern.
Within this Wave 3, MU has completed 5 sub-waves and now appears to be working on the ABC correction.
Wave A is in, B was recently completed, and now we are attempting wave C which will be 5 smaller waves down back to the larger trend line.
Of this Wave C down, we appear to have put in Waves 1 and 2. In fact wave 2 made a near perfect 61.8% retracement at this moment.
The target for the Fibonacci extension of wave 1 puts wave 3 of this C wave ending at near $56.5 for a 1:1.618 extension.
MU would then retrace with wave 4 to previous level of support that would now be resistance around $58.25 before the final push down to $55 for the touch to the trend line on about the close of 3/22.
Conveniently, this would yield a C wave that is a perfect 1:1 extension of wave A.
Of course, with all this looking so textbook, something is bound to go wrong.
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJThe only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although they're probably worth watching to see if their implied's bump up closer to the announcement or, depending on price movement post announcement, whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of earnings announcement "afterglow."
Preliminarily, the MU March 29th 20 delta 55/69 is paying 1.89/contract (off hours) with break evens at 53.11/70.89. The defined risk iron condor would require slightly more aggressive strikes to get one-third the width out of the longs -- the 53.5/56.5/67.5/69.5 (30 delta) in the March 29th pays 1.03 with break evens at 55.47 and 68.53.
For short put/acquire/cover cycle traders who are looking to potentially get into MU lower than current market prices, the April 20th 25 delta 55 short put is paying 1.88 at the mid, yielding a break even of 53.14, a 12.28% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, you can look at going out to May here where the 55 is at the 30 delta, bring in 2.87 at the door and get a break even of 52.13 (a nearly 14% discount).
As far as non-earnings is concerned, we're kind of in "the dead zone" between the April and May monthlies; for me, the April month is too short in duration (33 days to go) and the May, a bit too long (61 days).
Nevertheless, here are the top four exchange-traded funds ranked by implied volatility -- OIH (29), EWZ (29), XOP (29), GDXJ (28) -- and by implied volatility rank/percentile: XHB, FXI, XLF, and XLB, all of which are at the upper end of their 52-week ranges. Unfortunately, that isn't saying much, since background implied in all of these is sub-25, with the preferred metric for background implied being >35%.
It may be time to scrounge around for something directional to keep me engaged in "the dead zone" -- for example, this GE play (See Post below) ... .
Double Top As A TargetHello Friends. I meekly think we're observing another breakout and it's not unreasonable to expect a retest of the recent high imho. Thank you for taking a look.
MU Retesting Ex Resistance / New Support ?I took profit and now looking a new entry price. Seems we will test Ex resistance. Good oportunity to buy at a cheaper price before ER on 22nd.
SL 48
Next target @ ER 57.20
Keep calm and embalm
Another possibility that's likely to play outI was thinking about it and it does look like there's an opportunity for a nice long position near $39.50. With an aggressive stop bellow $39. Let's see how it plays out
MU Long IdeaMu stock price is headed higher as it is breaking the trend line. General stock markets are heading higher after the correction. Pick and stock and hang on for the ride.
MU short putsLong MU longer term via short $36 puts, $.75 credit each.
I spread off some of the BP req in IRA with $28 puts.
Will manage these guys around 60-70% net credit received profit.
POP: 80%
BPR: $1,450 (also max loss if MU got cut in half)
Max Win: $150
MU seems poised for a major upside move...Again!So MU has been insane this year and has been one of my most profitable picks, however, I try to limit greed and sold when my stop losses were triggered, seeming like a decent move for opportunity cost. However, something big here seems to be forming.
Looking at a logarithmic chart on the daily time-span, we see a fantastic channel forming. This stock looks poised for another major move upward. Minimum profit target of $50, but that's if it hits the middle of the pitchfork. In reality, don't be shocked to see 57 or 60 by next earnings. MACD seems like it's about to move bullish again on the daily as well.
On the shorter time frame (30 Minute), ichimoku is looking good, as well as a positive 5-day Moving Average. MU is above its yearly VWAP and so if it gets above 45.50, I think we could see a nice move from MU, a very profitable one.
Keep this one on your watch list guys, the volatility in MU mixed with the undervaluation (and yes, this stock is ridiculously undervalued) means major gains could be heading into our pockets.
MU callsLong MU via $43 calls for Mar16.
Beautiful hourly candle here, so I'm initiating a call position. The daily (posted below) is setting up for some sort of move.
3x $43 Mar16 calls for $2.33.
- 55 delta
- Max Risk: $699
- Stop Loss: Price at $42.20 or options decay 60%
- Target: Price at $48. I will sell 1-2 calls if we get a move right away to $45-45.50ish area.
$MU Bullish Flag ? if breakout off the upper channel, target $58My first Idea, please be nice :)
Noticed that $MU is forming a bullish flag (or maybe pennant)... Although it is not a perfect flag, it's still interesting. I will definitely buy if it breaks out of the upper channel with good volume.
Convergent indicators:
1. Bounced off the 200 MA
2. MACD crossing
3. Bounced off the strong support at $39.10
Neutral indicators:
1. RSI very neutral
Divergent Indicator:
1. %R is high
With the same height of the flagpole, target price would be around $59.
Added:
ER is coming up. $AMD, $AMAT, and $NVDA all beat. What would $MU do? And what would the price do? ;)
Chris
Micron's Strong RallyMicron updated guidance for Q2 and now expects revenue in the range of $7.2B to $7.35B from prior guidance of $6.8B to $7.2B and of consensus estimates of $7.02B. In addition, the company expects EPS in the range of $2.70 to $2.75 from prior guidance of $2.51 to $2.65 and consensus estimates of $2.57. The business couldn't be stronger and while recent volatility in the stock market had taken MU under $40 at Monday's close it looks to have made a double bottom. Looking for MU to continue to rally, however the market is in control here and a continued downward trend will derail the recent move.
Put sale on MU for February normal expiry?MU opened and closed below its 100 day SMA on the daily time frame. I can definitely see some more downside down to $39 and maybe even the 200 day SMA on the daily time frame, which is also the 50 day EMA on the weekly time frame.
Weekly chart:
Considering a $37 Feb put sale for a limit of $0.40 or better. I wouldn't mind owning shares in MU :-)
MU - Is it just a meme?If you randomly picked a few readers of r/WallStreetBets, they'd probably tell you all about Micron (MU) & AMD and how they have fantastic potential. Focusing in on MU: is it going to live up to the hype?
From a technical analysis point of view, I'm inclined to agree! A very textbook flag/triangle pattern is forming - these patterns are generally trend continuation patterns. The semiconductor industry is booming. MU put together a very impressive sequence of earnings beats.
All in all, I believe we should see a breakout very soon!
Market Pullback in Coming, Be Careful!If any of you guys have seen my last post about the NASDAQ, I showed a couple retractments I thought should make us all very weary. Well, I'm here to share another interesting piece.
It's obvious the normal graph of the NASDAQ has no long term support or resistance. It's impossible, too much compounding going on. However, using the log feature in order to limit compounding, We see a BEAUTIFUL channel that has formed within the NASDAQ.
This has nothing to do with Trump or Taxes, this was a 100% EXPECTED move. However, it is obvious the move has run it's course for now. Obviously the channel is still up, so like I said in my original post, we're still in a bullish market. Expect a pullback though, and use this to help optimize profits.
Speaking of which, $AAPL earnings failure will help confirm this top, and I think by now the news obviously points to an earnings failure.
Optimize and be smart!!!!
$MU One of my favesSo for those who are most conservative, wait till price hits green line, however those a little more riskier, 100 Ma can act as a buying point, currently below, I like this spot with a stop at 41.00. Good Luck
