Good Long Entry For MU NowAlthough I don't know where the stock price will move, I think there's a good chance MU retests the highs of the low 60s in the next few months. In case I'm wrong, I would place a stop loss below the minor low at 47 (around 45 is good). You risk about 5 dollars for a gain of 13-15, so your risk reward is about 3 to 1.
Also, something to note is that MU gapped down below the 49-50 level on Friday, which was the previous breakout location. However, MU quickly recovered even though the entire market was selling off. The current price action is hinting at a false breakout, and the upward move that follows false breakouts tend to be very quick and violent.
Good luck trading!
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Blog: bigfryfinancialmarkets.com
MU
MU stock: Playing the bounces off Fib levels. Easy as A, B, CWell, I must first admit, I am publishing this chart in retrospect as I've just now taken the time to really analyze MU in this way. Unfortunately, I missed some massive profit opportunities, but this is certainly a learning experience for the next time around and....there may be one more trick (trade) left up this chart's sleeve.
So as you can see from the chart, as MU has pulled back from its high around $63, it has bounce nicely/sharply off each Fibonacci retracement point (for a gain of about $3-4 each time). This set up is a day traders dream. In and out of a trade with significant profit in a very short amount of time.
First bounce (labeled A) off the 38.2% level was good for almost $4...nice! I'm not really paying much attention to the 23.6 level, though there was a bounce in that region. This bounce also coincided nicely with a trend line that formed a 5 wave pattern....even better (see the pink line).
Second bounce (labeled B) was off the 50% level (okay....not technically a Fib number). Again this was good for $2.70! Also, this happened to fall right on a nice trend line to create another 5 wave pattern (I don't have all these waves drawn in because the chart would be very congested, but hopefully you can visualize them on the blue line in the chart above).
Third bounce (labeled C) was off the 61.8% level and was again good for over $4. Again, there is a legitimate 5 wave structure that could be formed here on the gold/orange trend line.
So the question is: Does Micron continue its fall or does it bounce up from here and start a new bullish move?
I honestly have no clue, but I can tell you one thing: if it falls through the gold trend line, I will be watching for a touch to the Fib 78.6 level at a price around $43.19. I may go long a call option here, I may buy shares, or I may sell a put just below this level (or maybe I'll do one or more of the above) for a quick trade expecting a move between $2 and $4. I'd not get greedy though, and I'd look to take profits early. I'd certainly keep a tight stop loss, because if MU gets beyond this level without a bounce, next stop may not be until it hits $37-38.
Certainly, the bulls could regain control here at the 61.8% level...this would make a fantastic retracement for a very bullish wave 1 up/2 down as part of a larger 5 wave structure to take MU significantly higher (remember all those analysts predicting MU at $100). A 1.618 extension of a larger Wave 1 with Wave 3 starting off the 61.8% level would give MU a Wave 3 target of $89 (not something to ignore) . I'm staying neutral at this time and will let the chart tell me where MU is likely headed next.
Thanks for reading and giving this idea a thumbs up if it helped you in any way!
Bonus points for anyone that can draw the trend line that creates a potential 5 wave structure that intersects the 78.6% Fib level.
Nvidia and semi-conductor bubble. NVDA, SOXIt is quite obvious central bank money printing and suppressed interest rates caused this bubble. This pattern is playing out two decades later all over again.
Good chance SOX and everything in it. ie NVDA are going down -30-50% minimum a year or so from now.
MU: Potential weekly 135 pattern completed with c.23% downsideCouple of bearish cues on MU:
#1 Potential weekly 3-drive pattern completion
#2 Currently trading at 61.8% retracement of last All Time High
#3 Potential ABCD completion in the 240M time frame
#4 Huge volumes which suggest exhaustion, last hooray
Min target would be the 38.2% retracement level around the $40-$43 level.
Mu update 28 marchprevious targets 63.5 were reached, the bullflag stopping @ 1.61 fibonacci.
Now most probable fall is same as before @47.5 coinciding with the 50 &100 ema. But we could have a ping pong in trend range( blue lines) or inside the support/resistance 38-61 fib. If this support fails then 43.6 is the lowest level to watch for reversal.
The longer trend excluding a major crisis, looks bullish and the target is the same at 78-80 with a pause @65-68, for now we will be waiting for long term confirmation either with a strong rebound at the previous mentioned levels or breaking above the blue channel ~59.
What will Micron (MU) do over the next 72 hoursHere is my best guess at a path for Micron (MU) between now and the close on 3/22.
It appears we have completed wave 3 of a large 5 wave impulse pattern.
Within this Wave 3, MU has completed 5 sub-waves and now appears to be working on the ABC correction.
Wave A is in, B was recently completed, and now we are attempting wave C which will be 5 smaller waves down back to the larger trend line.
Of this Wave C down, we appear to have put in Waves 1 and 2. In fact wave 2 made a near perfect 61.8% retracement at this moment.
The target for the Fibonacci extension of wave 1 puts wave 3 of this C wave ending at near $56.5 for a 1:1.618 extension.
MU would then retrace with wave 4 to previous level of support that would now be resistance around $58.25 before the final push down to $55 for the touch to the trend line on about the close of 3/22.
Conveniently, this would yield a C wave that is a perfect 1:1 extension of wave A.
Of course, with all this looking so textbook, something is bound to go wrong.
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJThe only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although they're probably worth watching to see if their implied's bump up closer to the announcement or, depending on price movement post announcement, whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of earnings announcement "afterglow."
Preliminarily, the MU March 29th 20 delta 55/69 is paying 1.89/contract (off hours) with break evens at 53.11/70.89. The defined risk iron condor would require slightly more aggressive strikes to get one-third the width out of the longs -- the 53.5/56.5/67.5/69.5 (30 delta) in the March 29th pays 1.03 with break evens at 55.47 and 68.53.
For short put/acquire/cover cycle traders who are looking to potentially get into MU lower than current market prices, the April 20th 25 delta 55 short put is paying 1.88 at the mid, yielding a break even of 53.14, a 12.28% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, you can look at going out to May here where the 55 is at the 30 delta, bring in 2.87 at the door and get a break even of 52.13 (a nearly 14% discount).
As far as non-earnings is concerned, we're kind of in "the dead zone" between the April and May monthlies; for me, the April month is too short in duration (33 days to go) and the May, a bit too long (61 days).
Nevertheless, here are the top four exchange-traded funds ranked by implied volatility -- OIH (29), EWZ (29), XOP (29), GDXJ (28) -- and by implied volatility rank/percentile: XHB, FXI, XLF, and XLB, all of which are at the upper end of their 52-week ranges. Unfortunately, that isn't saying much, since background implied in all of these is sub-25, with the preferred metric for background implied being >35%.
It may be time to scrounge around for something directional to keep me engaged in "the dead zone" -- for example, this GE play (See Post below) ... .
MU seems poised for a major upside move...Again!So MU has been insane this year and has been one of my most profitable picks, however, I try to limit greed and sold when my stop losses were triggered, seeming like a decent move for opportunity cost. However, something big here seems to be forming.
Looking at a logarithmic chart on the daily time-span, we see a fantastic channel forming. This stock looks poised for another major move upward. Minimum profit target of $50, but that's if it hits the middle of the pitchfork. In reality, don't be shocked to see 57 or 60 by next earnings. MACD seems like it's about to move bullish again on the daily as well.
On the shorter time frame (30 Minute), ichimoku is looking good, as well as a positive 5-day Moving Average. MU is above its yearly VWAP and so if it gets above 45.50, I think we could see a nice move from MU, a very profitable one.
Keep this one on your watch list guys, the volatility in MU mixed with the undervaluation (and yes, this stock is ridiculously undervalued) means major gains could be heading into our pockets.
MU callsLong MU via $43 calls for Mar16.
Beautiful hourly candle here, so I'm initiating a call position. The daily (posted below) is setting up for some sort of move.
3x $43 Mar16 calls for $2.33.
- 55 delta
- Max Risk: $699
- Stop Loss: Price at $42.20 or options decay 60%
- Target: Price at $48. I will sell 1-2 calls if we get a move right away to $45-45.50ish area.
$MU Bullish Flag ? if breakout off the upper channel, target $58My first Idea, please be nice :)
Noticed that $MU is forming a bullish flag (or maybe pennant)... Although it is not a perfect flag, it's still interesting. I will definitely buy if it breaks out of the upper channel with good volume.
Convergent indicators:
1. Bounced off the 200 MA
2. MACD crossing
3. Bounced off the strong support at $39.10
Neutral indicators:
1. RSI very neutral
Divergent Indicator:
1. %R is high
With the same height of the flagpole, target price would be around $59.
Added:
ER is coming up. $AMD, $AMAT, and $NVDA all beat. What would $MU do? And what would the price do? ;)
Chris
Micron's Strong RallyMicron updated guidance for Q2 and now expects revenue in the range of $7.2B to $7.35B from prior guidance of $6.8B to $7.2B and of consensus estimates of $7.02B. In addition, the company expects EPS in the range of $2.70 to $2.75 from prior guidance of $2.51 to $2.65 and consensus estimates of $2.57. The business couldn't be stronger and while recent volatility in the stock market had taken MU under $40 at Monday's close it looks to have made a double bottom. Looking for MU to continue to rally, however the market is in control here and a continued downward trend will derail the recent move.