Bounce of the 9 Buy! BTC/USD : Minority Venture Capital (MVC)We've seen a textbook bounce off of the TD sequential 9 buy after the break of the triangle. However, since we didn't drop low enough (not even breaking the previous swing low as you can see by the red lines) this cannot be considered capitulation. In order to have a more extended swing to the upside we need to break the triangle, the 50 SMA, and Lucid SARs--same as I've been saying for the past few weeks. A lot of resistance. Until then, I can't expect anything other than this bouncing being a 1-4 day correction of the 9 buy and a continuation of the trend downward.
The weekly chart is still not looking great as we are still below the 7, 21, and 50 SMA with the 7 crossing below the 50 in two weeks. Additionally, we are only on a 5 of 9 to the downside. Provided we continue this downtrend, a 9 on the weekly scale coming in 4 weeks could provide the relief we're looking for.
MVC
Triangle Has Broken! BTC/USD : Minority Venture Capital (MVC)The descending triangle has broken down with a price target of $24,000.
We've already almost broken the previous swing low (at 29,250). Even though we are bouncing slightly in the final hours of the day, it shouldn't last and low will be broken. While 24,000 might be a bit extreme, I'm expecting at least 26,000.
The death cross should happen in 3/4 days. Meanwhile, it is extremely important to note that the TD sequential buy signal comes tomorrow. In an ideal scenario, the price would crash to or almost to the price target in a capitulation event and rebound with the TD buy (potentially ending this extended downturn and resuming the bull market).
4hr Channel Update BTC/USD : Minority Venture Capital (MVC)We were rejected right at the halfway point of the channel; however, we are seeing a bounce off the bottom trend line. Seeing that we couldn't even make it past the halfway point, I don't believe this bounce will last and we will break hard below the trend.
It is also important to note that we are sitting at the bottom of the daily triangle that is coming to a point very shortly.
4hr Channel and Trend BTC/USD : Minority Venture Capital (MVC)Upper blue trend line is the same as the one on the daily triangle in the linked post. In order to break this downtrend we need a close above this line and the yellow SMA (the 300 SMA on the 4hr aka 50 daily)
Additionally, watch this channel we've been forming as a breakdown will likely lead to an even larger more extended break to the downside. See daily descending triangle post.