USDMXN Bearish Wedge, good RR, Part 2This trade is still going pretty well, i took 25% profit at the low and another 25% got hit on a very tight stop which was also a decent profit. The remaining 50% almost got hit at the purple stop loos but since then we dropped again. Now we are at a support zone again, if this breaks i want to increase my position again to 100%. So i will risk the profit i have on my remaining position.
Stop will remain at the purple zone which is around break even of that 100% position. Target remains the same, which is the target of the wedge.
Previous analysis:
Mxn
USDMXN ShortJust playing out the possible consolidation on the US dollar soon (with Fed rate hike already priced in and divergence seen on RSI in the weekly DXY chart, not to mentioned the possible dovishness of the Fed by 2019). Also just riding the recent ranging movement of this pair.
Setting sell stop order with TP @20-20.1 (-38.2 to -61.8 fib levels) and SL @20.58 (between 61.8-100 fib levels).
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DXY:
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: C (high probability of getting whipsawed; also need to close this position before PMI news tomorrow and NFP news on Friday)
USDMXN Bearish Wedge, good RRWe have gotten a second chance to play this bearish wedge. After the previous trade which failed, but gladly was just a small as usual. Not the previous candles are very bullish, but i think this wedge is legit so i don't see it getting above that previous high. I am going to split my entries in 2, i am going to risk one part here, if that trend line on the left and the green box breaks and going to wait a bit for the second half.
Previous analysis:
USD/MXN 1H Chart: Short-term channel in sightThe previous forecast worked, and the USD/MXN currency pair has breached the medium-term ascending channel.
As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar is continuing to appreciate against the Mexican Peso. This movement has been bounded in the short-term ascending channel. Currently, the pair is testing its lower boundary at 20.05. if given channel holds, it is likely that a reversal north occurs within following sessions. The general direction is expected to remain north. Potential upside target is the psychological level at 21.00.
Otherwise, a breakout from the channel occurs in the nearest future. Important level to look out for is the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 19.75.
MASSIVE CUP AND HANDLE IN USD/MXNMy ideal opening in my previuos chart didn´t hit. An ideal opening would´ve been 19.40-19.80 ish. But as you can see, the daily chart shows a massive cup and handle so I believe an opening right now would be very profitable specially when the new Mexican president is taking over tomorrow Saturday, December 1st. Being a very controversial person, it is almost a certainty that the MXN is going to take a massive hit maybe all the way up to 22. On the other hand, the MACD looks weak, thats why your stop loss should be at the 0.5 support. Stay safe.
USDMXN triangle playLooks like a solid triangle here and from the looks of it we will probably see a break on the upside. But every triangle can go both ways. So i am going to wait for some confirmation first. So i want to see it move like one of the blue lines first before going in the trade. So a break of the triangle and a retest.
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Previous analysis:
Targets to watch in USD/MXN This a trend analysis on USD/MXN.
Our first indicator on an uptrend comes from the golden cross on October 26, 50 MA crossed the 100 MA. Last two times it happened we saw important increases which should mean midterm profit.
Both the stochastic and RSI are pointing up, but buyers are getting tired, so my entry point should be between 19.43-19.83 with a definitive support at the 0.382 level, do not buy if it goes below this level as this may indicate a trend reversal.
The profit targets are also important as I believe we might have a definitive rejection at the 1 line so plan your locking of profits accordingly.
Also and pretty important, the new Mexican president is being sweared in on December 1st, 2018. Being that this individual is a very controversial person, we might see an important USD take over the MXN which might trigger higher levels of profit above the 20.80 price. Be watchful.
Please, please, please comminity, can I have some feedback on this analysis? I believe that there will be a hell ton of money to make if you open a position and hold it till a bit after December 1st.
USD/MXN 1H Chart: Medium-term channel in sightThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Mexican Peso since the middle of October when the currency pair reversed from the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 18.75.
As apparent on the chart, the rate is testing the upper channel line located near 20.10. It is most likely that a breakout from given channel occurs in the nearest future. A potential upside target is the monthly R3 at 20.41.
Meanwhile, technical indicators demonstrate that there is still some downside potential in the market before bulls are able to prevail in the market again.
USD/MXN 1H Chart: Resistance level in sightThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Mexican Peso after the currency pair reversed from the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 18.65.
Currently, the rate is trading near the support level formed by the monthly PP at 19.01. If given support level holds, it is expected that the pair will aim for the upper channel line located circa 19.60. Important resistance level to look out for is a combination of the weekly R2 and the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 19.20.
If given resistance level holds, the pair might make a reverse and go downside to re-test the lower channel line located circa 18.70.