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USD/MXN Continues to Fall Below the 20 Pesos per Dollar LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the USD/MXN pair has declined by more than 2%, as the Mexican peso continues to gain ground against the U.S. dollar. This bullish trend in the peso is partly driven by the ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, as reflected in the DXY index, which has fallen to 99 points, its lowest level in the past year. The dollar’s weakness stems from the growing political and economic uncertainty generated by the global trade war, triggering a broad wave of dollar selling as capital exits the U.S. If this trend continues, the Mexican peso could maintain its bullish momentum in the short term. Lateral Range Breakout Since November 2024, USD/MXN had been trading within a sideways range, with resistance at 20.94 pesos per dollar and support at 20.00. In recent sessions, bearish pressure broke through this support, and as selling momentum builds, this could mark the start of a more meaningful downtrend. MACD The MACD histogram remains below the neutral zero line, indicating strong bearish momentum based on recent moving average trends. If the histogram continues to show deeper negative values, selling pressure could intensify further in the short term. RSI Currently, lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI suggest the presence of a bullish divergence—an imbalance in recent selling momentum. This could create an opportunity for short-term bullish corrections to emerge. Key Levels to Watch: 20.33 pesos per dollar: A key resistance level, aligned with the 100-period moving average. A return to this area could reactivate the previous range. 20.00 pesos per dollar: Another important resistance, now acting as a potential retest zone after previously serving as support. This could be a target for short-term pullbacks. 19.33 pesos per dollar: A significant support level, aligned with the neutral zone from September 2024. A move toward this level could reinforce the consolidation of a consistent bearish trend in upcoming sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Remains Neutral Around the 20 Pesos per Dollar ZoneOver the past two trading sessions, USD/MXN has maintained a steady neutral movement, showing barely 1% total variation in price. This growing neutral bias has persisted as the market continues to await how a potential trade war could affect the Mexican peso. Recent comments from President Trump suggested that the tariffs may not officially come into effect on April 2, adding to the uncertainty. Major moves in the pair could resume as new updates on the tariff situation emerge in the coming sessions. Broad Sideways Range: The pair continues to move within a clear sideways range, between the resistance at 20.95 pesos per dollar and the key support at 20.00. Recent bearish moves have been insufficient to break through this level decisively, leaving the sideways structure dominant in the USD/MXN market. ADX Indicator: The ADX line has remained below the 20 level in recent sessions, indicating that recent movements lack the strength to be considered trend-driven. This continues to point to a neutral market environment in the pair. RSI Indicator: A similar situation is seen in the RSI, with the line hovering near the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buying and selling pressure remain in balance. For now, this neutrality is helping reinforce the support barrier currently holding in USD/MXN. Key Levels: 20.95 pesos per dollar – A key resistance level aligned with the recent highs. Sustained buying above this zone could reactivate bullish momentum and lead to a potential breakout from the current range. 20.00 pesos per dollar – The most important short-term support , matching the lower boundary of the broader sideways channel. Bearish moves below this level could lead to stronger downward pressure in the sessions ahead. 19.33 pesos per dollar – A distant support level , located around neutral price zones seen in September 2024. Selling pressure that reaches this level could confirm the beginning of a new bearish trend in USD/MXN. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Weakens as New Tariffs Take EffectOver the last three trading sessions, the pair has risen by more than 2% in favor of the U.S. dollar as the threat of tariffs has become a reality. So far, President Trump has confirmed that the measures will take effect today, and there is currently no hope for another deadline extension. The President of Mexico has traveled to the United States for an official meeting, but at this time, there are no expectations that the measure will be lifted in the short term. Given this, investors have determined that the U.S. dollar is likely the strongest currency to consider, especially if there is a potential economic slowdown in Mexico’s activity in the coming months. Consistent Sideways Range For now, USD/MXN remains in a sideways range, defined by a ceiling at 20.91 pesos per dollar and a floor at 20.07 pesos per dollar. The recent bullish momentum has once again tested resistance, and if upward pressure on the U.S. dollar remains strong, it is possible that the sideways channel could give way to an uptrend, which has remained dormant. It is important to note that the latest candlestick in the formation shows strong neutrality, highlighting the barrier imposed by the current resistance level. ADX Indicator At the moment, the ADX line has started an upward trend and is now above the neutral level of 20 on the indicator. This suggests that the average of bullish movements in recent trading sessions is becoming trend-defining. However, it is crucial that the ADX line continues to move away from the neutral level to confirm that buying pressure is strengthening in the short term. Key Levels: 20.91: Major resistance, marking the upper boundary of the broad sideways range and acting as the most critical barrier for the latest bullish move. Breaks above this level could lead to new highs, ending the current consolidation phase. 20.43: Important support, aligning with the Ichimoku cloud barrier as well as the 50 and 100-period moving averages, highlighting the strength of this level. If the price falls below this point, the sideways range could extend further in the coming sessions. 20.07: Final support, positioned at the lowest price levels recorded in December 2024. If the price nears this zone, it could reinforce the bearish outlook, completely invalidating the long-term bullish trend. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Nears Critical Support LevelOver the past four trading sessions, USD/MXN has declined by more than 2% in favor of the Mexican peso. The current bearish move has brought the price closer to the lower boundary of the existing sideways range seen on the chart. This recent selling pressure has been driven by mixed U.S. inflation data released last week and the lack of volatility in the U.S. dollar due to the U.S. holiday, allowing the peso to dominate the market in the short term. Sideways Range Holds At the moment, USD/MXN continues to trade within a well-defined neutral range between the 20.90332 resistance level and the 20.09472 support level. So far, the bearish momentum has been strong enough to push the price closer to the key support zone, and as long as selling pressure persists, there is a higher likelihood of a downside breakout in the short term. MACD Indicator Currently, both the MACD lines and the histogram are crossing the neutral 0 level. This could signal the start of fresh bearish strength if price action remains below this level in the coming sessions. Selling pressure may gain further relevance as the histogram moves further away from the neutral zone. TRIX Indicator For the first time in months, the TRIX indicator is consistently approaching the 0 neutral level , reinforcing bearish dominance in the short term. If the TRIX crosses below 0, the moving average bias could shift fully bearish, strengthening the peso’s momentum. Key Levels to Watch 20.90332 – Key Resistance: Major resistance level, marking the highest price levels reached in recent months. A return to this level would confirm a recovery of bullish sentiment, reinforcing the current sideways channel. 20.43791 – Near-Term Resistance: Coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period moving average. If the price retraces to this level, it could invalidate the current bearish pressure and open the door for a potential upside correction. 20.09472 – Critical Support: Lower boundary of the current range. If sellers break below this level, it could confirm the start of a new downtrend in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN breaks trend line ahead of Trump speechThe USD/MXN has broken its bullish trend line, and has now moved back below the key 20.500 level. Is this a turn in the tide? The Mexican peso has enjoyed a relief rally along with other risk assets in the last few days, but whether or not it can rise further will depend partly on any new tariff announcements from Trump, and their scale... Trump's Speech at Davos in Focus: Tariffs and Taxation on the Horizon? Trump’s highly anticipated address at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 11:00 AM ET is set to grab the market’s attention. Investors will be closely analysing his comments for any further signals on tariffs, economic policies, and international tax matters. While Trump has refrained from imposing blanket tariffs so far, he’s kept the market guessing with his mentions of potential tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China. However, no firm decisions have been made yet, leaving investors in a holding pattern as they await further clarification on his stance. Jobless Claims Rise: Softening Signs in the Labour Market? On the economic data front, US jobless claims came in higher than expected at 223K, up from 217K the previous week, and above the forecast of 220K. This marks the second consecutive week that claims have risen more than anticipated, suggesting a potential softening in the jobs market, at least in the near term. The slight uptick in claims could raise questions about the strength of the labour market and add to market uncertainty as traders await more data and policy direction. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
Long on Mexican Pesos: Technical Indicators and Market AnalysisThe Mexican Peso has recently reached a Demand area that we have been monitoring for some time, and it has shown a strong rebound from this level. By examining technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic, we can observe that the Peso is currently in an oversold condition, suggesting a potential upward movement. Furthermore, by analyzing the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, we see additional support for a bullish outlook. The seasonality trends of the Mexican Peso also align with this perspective, indicating that now is an opportune time to consider a long position. Given these technical and seasonal indicators, we have decided to open a long position on this futures contract. The confluence of the oversold technical indicators, supportive COT data, and favorable seasonal trends provides a strong foundation for our bullish stance on the Mexican Peso. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Mexican Pesos in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6M1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
MX EXCHANGE TOKEN : INCREASE UPDATEMX the exchange token is shown at the side of the study's new increased volume. We will follow this coin at last for the next 24H to see if there are new gains that we can follow for the long term. These updates are daily updates but can change to long-term views if there is a trend building. We try to scan the best possible coins for the coming times, as trading there will be never a guarantee on any idea or expectation. The market moves with time, and we should follow it. Data shows if this coin is able to gain $1.75 then it's an important breakout point The current price is below $1.36 Since it's an exchange token, we did also study the trend of the exchange. MX exchange showing also an increase in the volume include users Depend on your study in more ways, as this is not trading advice. This is our view about MX for the short term, and if it gets confirmed for an uptrend we will follow it more.
Long
by Goldenbreakout
3
Emerging Currencies Making a Recovery??As we zoom out and look closely at the Mexican Peso, we see many signs of strength that have been building for some time now. I believe the MXN and many other emerging currencies are all showing similar signs of strength and in the process of a reversal. While this may provide a great long trade and a short-term boost to the Peso, I fear it will have long-term negative effects. These are the things that lead me to continue to believe the dollar will continue to devalue. Emerging market currencies have consistently gained strength against the dollar. If the Peso closes above the 13-year historical resistance by the end of this month, it will be a decent confirmation of a trend change. Unless we see some BIG power moves come from the dollar, I believe this is likely to continue. Not to put to be dramatic, but "IF" this does play out, it will be VERY difficult and drastic for most people's current financial circumstances in the U.S. If the US dollar loses that much purchasing power in relation to the rest of the world, it will affect people in many ways. If it now costs most companies a certain amount to purchase products, then the stores in the US will raise their prices significantly, at least to make up for the lost purchasing power, which means many will have to settle with less to provide for themselves. This may seem good for the emerging currencies and their economy in the short term, but I believe we are seeing a global financial shift that will affect everyone negatively, not just the U.S. economy. The U.S. produces very little in comparison to the rest of the world, so we will suffer because of this. IMO, the U.S. has sat on its laurels of being the biggest economy far too long, and it's caused us to have an economy that is far too reliant on other countries because we "had" the money to pay for cheap labor. I believe the U.S. will suffer a great financial loss because of our short-term approach and being far too prideful because we had more financial liberties compared to others. Essentially, The U.S. became conceited... This money printing has seriously backed us into a corner. Very similar to many ancient empires in the past. I honestly hope I'm wrong about this, the effects of this kind of macro shift could be devastating for many. When things like this happen, it's typically best to look into hard assets like Gold/Silver and even Bitcoin. Please don't take my brutal honesty the wrong way, but I believe it's important to see the global shifts that are in place and consider taking the proper precautions. We're entering uncharted territory for the global economy and this will likely create unstable conditions for all.
Long
by CryptoSyphn
EUR/MXN - Opportunities! Technical outlook towards EUR/MXN We were messaged to analyse this pair, since we last looked at this pair was July - Great momentum it has had. It was 1hr chart this time, I am going through daily - Why? ***Higher time frame indicates shorter time frame of movement! *** Technical outlook: Pattern wise - we are being squeezed within price action of a triangle formation but within that we do have a smaller bullish flag occurring which if you go through 4 hr it hasn't broken towards upside yet and we are at support of this pattern. Shorter Trade Plan: Going towards 4hr you could add Fibs retracement and the target for this bullish flag would be 26.52767 and that's the resistance of this formation as well as top of the range is has been for while. (Following the pattern and inner small flag pattern) For further confirmation a close above 50 EMA. Longer term trade plan: You could play the shorter role of the 4hr and even 1hr following the channel down or break out- However, longer term looking at the daily you could wait for a break to either direction, adding alert to resistance and support areas of the pattern, which ever way it breaks from the yellow arrows draw, I have measured the pattern length. On patterns I like to make sure it's a real break of the range so I would wait for break out , get in on the pull back and then take the trade to whichever direction it goes towards. Keep in mind - MXN is an EM currency, if you are interested to look more in depth an advanced view look at MSCI. (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation) All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
USDMXN - Peso - Which way?!The EM currencies aren't moving as much considering the major pairs are...that's an interesting thought to keep in mind! If you're looking for good risk reward trade, i'd go to EM currencies - Major pairs are little over extended. However, for those swing traders PESO looking clean...which way will it break. Will we carry on the pattern of descending channel? Will we reach the retracement Fibonacci 161.8 target? OR will we head higher out of channel and go towards the resistance areas? Add alerts or orders for whichever direction you feel its breaking out to. Remember, we've had a lot of dollar weakness. This is just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
by Trade_Journal