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Corcept Therapeutics: A Shining Star in US BiotechCorcept Therapeutics is making waves in the booming U.S. biotech scene, with its stock surging 46.2% over the past six months. The company, known for its Cushing's syndrome drug, Korlym, reported a staggering 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $310.6 million in H1 2024. With a market cap of $4.42 billion, Corcept is actively developing new treatments like Relacorilant, which shows promise in clinical trials. Despite a high PE ratio of 35.3x compared to the industry average of 19x, its strong revenue growth and commitment to R&D position it as a solid investment opportunity in the fast-growing biotech market projected to reach $1,786 billion by 2033. ◉ The US Biotech Industry Outlook The biotech boom in the U.S. is hotter than a California summer! Fueled by groundbreaking tech and government cheerleading, the industry is soaring higher than a SpaceX rocket. According to Vision Research Reports, the market is projected to soar by 12.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2033. This rapid expansion is driven by advancements in areas like genomics, gene editing, and personalized medicine, positioning the U.S. as a global leader in healthcare innovation. ➖ The US biotechnology market size was valued at $552.43 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to hit around $1,786 billion by 2033. ➖ Key players like Abbvie Inc., Genentech Inc., and Amgen Inc. are leading the market. Acknowledging the remarkable expansion of the biotech sector, we are taking a closer look at a stock that is showing considerable strength in its technical chart, complemented by robust financial performance. ◉ Company Overview Corcept Therapeutics NASDAQ:CORT is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing innovative treatments for severe endocrine, oncologic, and metabolic disorders. Their lead product, Korlym, is approved for Cushing's syndrome, a rare endocrine condition. Corcept is also advancing several pipeline candidates, including relacorilant for Cushing's syndrome, treatments for various cancers, and potential therapies for neurological conditions like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Founded in 1998, Corcept is based in Menlo Park, California. ◉ Significant Stock Performance of Corcept Therapeutics Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated's stock price has risen 46.2% in the past six months, despite a 2% industry decline. This surge is attributed to strong demand for Korlym, the company's sole marketed drug used to treat Cushing's syndrome, a condition that is primarily cured with mifepristone. ◉ The Economic Impact of Korlym The primary source of revenue for Corcept emanates from the sales of Korlym. The drug has showcased remarkable growth, evidenced by a 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, culminating in $310.6 million during the first half of 2024. This growth is attributed to robust demand and an unprecedented number of patients being prescribed the medication. ◉ Corcept's Stock Growth Factors ● Potential of Relacorilant: Positive GRACE study results suggest relacorilant could be a valuable treatment for Cushing's syndrome, potentially driving revenue growth. ● Pipeline Diversification: Corcept's ongoing exploration of relacorilant in GRADIENT study demonstrates commitment to expanding pipeline. ● Regulatory Progress: Successful completion of GRACE study positions Corcept for a new drug application in late 2024. ● Market Need: Successful relacorilant could fill significant unmet medical need for Cushing's syndrome. Investent Advice by Naranj Capital Buy Corcept Therapeutics NASDAQ:CORT ● Buy Range- 38 - 40 ● Target- 55 - 58 ● Potential Return- 35% - 40% ● Invest Duration- 12-14 Months ◉ Market Capitalization - $4.42 B ◉ Peer Companies ● Prestige Consumer Healthcare NYSE:PBH - $3.644 B ● Jazz Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:JAZZ - $6.766 B ● Amphastar Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:AMPH - $2.423 B ● Organon NYSE:OGN - $5.142 B ◉ Relative Strength ➖ The chart distinctly demonstrates that NASDAQ:CORT has significantly surpassed the US Smallcap 2000 index, attaining an impressive annual return of 30%, marking a remarkable accomplishment. ◉ Technical Aspects ● Monthly Chart ➖ The historical chart shows that the stock price is trending upward, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. ➖ Having recently moved out of the parallel channel, the price is set for additional gains. ● Daily Chart ➖ After an extended period of consolidation, the stock price has formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. ➖ Post-breakout, the stock has stabilized above the breakout point and is now striving for new highs. ➖ A surge in trading volume suggests that buyers are currently showing significant interest. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Year-on-year ➖ In the fiscal year 2023, revenue experienced a significant increase of 20.4%, amounting to $482.4 million, compared to $401.9 million in fiscal year 2022. ➖ However, EBITDA faced a downturn, decreasing to $108.3 million in FY23 from $113.9 million in FY22. ➖ The EBITDA margin also saw a reduction, falling to 22.46% from 28.34% in FY22. ➖ Moreover, diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 8% year-over-year, climbing to $0.94 in FY23, up from $0.87 in FY22. **While the growth in EBITDA might raise some concerns, it's crucial to acknowledge that the company is heavily investing in its research and development sector, and this investment has seen substantial increases over the years. ● Quarter-on-quarter ➖ In the most recent June quarter, the company reached an impressive achievement, with quarterly sales hitting a record high of $163.8 million. This represents a 12% increase from the $146.8 million reported in the March quarter and a substantial 39% growth compared to $117.7 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. ➖ Additionally, EBITDA rose from $29.6 million to $36.2 million during the latest quarter. ◉ Valuation ◉ PE Ratio ● PE vs Median PE ➖ Corcept Therapeutics sustained a median price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7x from December 2019 to 2023. ➖ Presently, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.3x, the stock seems to be relatively expensive. ● PE vs. Peers PE ➖ CORT's Price-To-Earnings Ratio stands at 35.3x, making it quite pricey when compared to the average of its peers, which is only 13.6x. ● PE vs. Industry PE ➖ CORT's valuation seems high, as it has a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 35.3x, which is considerably above the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 19x. ◉ PB Ratio ● PB vs. Peers PB ➖ The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio suggests that the stock is slightly undervalued, sitting at 7.4x compared to the peer average of 10.8x. ➖ However, it's important to note that a P/B ratio of 7.4x is typically seen as significantly overvalued. ● PB vs. Industry PB ➖ When we analyze the P/B ratio against the industry standard, CORT stands out as being notably overvalued, with its P/B ratio of 7.4x far exceeding the industry average of just 1.7x. ● PEG Ratio ➖ The stock currently seems to present a compelling investment opportunity, featuring a PEG ratio of 0.84. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ In FY23, operating cash flow increased to $127 million, compared to $120.3 million in FY22. However, it's essential to recognize that when examining the overall trend from FY19 to FY23, there has been a decline in cash flow from operations. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ CORT operates without any debt, showcasing the robust financial health of the company. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ Blackrock presently possesses a significant 15.8% ownership in this stock, while The Vanguard Group maintains approximately 9.1% stakes. ◉ Conclusion Following a comprehensive examination of technical and fundamental metrics, our assessment indicates that Corcept Therapeutics possesses substantial growth potential within the US biotechnology sector. Notwithstanding elevated valuations, the company's increasing research and development expenditures demonstrate a strong commitment to its future prospects. Consequently, we consider Corcept Therapeutics a prudent investment choice at this juncture.
NASDAQ:CORTLong
by NaranjCapital
EdTech Unicorn Stride Surges: Strong Financials Fuel Rally!The EdTech revolution is progressing rapidly! As technology advances, internet access grows swiftly, and students seek innovative learning methods, the global EdTech market is flourishing. North America currently holds a significant 37.3% share, but regions such as the Middle East and Africa, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are gaining ground, fueled by government support, digital literacy, and a burgeoning middle class. It's an exciting time for digital learning, and there's even more to look forward to! ◉ EdTech Market Growth Outlook ➖ Valuation projected to rise from $220.5 million in 2023 to $810.3 million by 2033. ➖ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.9%. ◉ Government Initiatives Supporting EdTech Sector The US Department of Education has allocated $277 million in new grants through the Education Innovation and Research program to enhance educational equity and innovation, particularly in areas affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically focusing on STEM education and rural regions. Recognizing the enormous opportunity in EdTech, we're examining a stock that exhibits remarkable growth potential within the sector. ◉ Company Overview Stride Inc. NYSE:LRN is a tech-driven education service provider offering proprietary and third-party online curricula, software, and services in the U.S. and globally. Their products support personalized learning for K-12 students through virtual and blended public schools, individual online courses, and supplemental materials in subjects like math, English, science, and history. Stride also emphasizes career learning in fields such as IT, healthcare, and business, and operates tuition-based private schools. Additionally, they provide post-secondary programs in software engineering and healthcare under brands like Galvanize and Tech Elevator, along with staffing services. Rebranded from K12 Inc. in December 2020, Stride has been incorporated since 1999 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia. Investent Advice by Naranj Capital Buy Stride NYSE:LRN ● Buy Range- 77 - 80 ● Target- 115 - 120 ● Potential Return- 45% - 50% ● Invest Duration- 12-18 Months ◉ Market Capitalization - $3.31 B ◉ Peer Companies ➖ Graham Holdings NYSE:GHC - $3.23 B ➖ Adtalem Global Education NYSE:ATGE - $2.67 B ➖ Grand Canyon Education NASDAQ:LOPE - $4.04 B ➖ Laureate Education NASDAQ:LAUR - $2.25 B ◉ Technical Aspects ● Monthly ➖ The stock price initially faced resistance at $40 in 2011 but later found support at $17. ➖ Despite several attempts to break through resistance, the stock experienced significant declines. ➖ However, after a 12-year period, it finally broke out and rallied to a high of $84. ➖ Currently trading at $77.7, the stock is expected to continue rising in the near future ● Daily ➖ The daily chart indicates a clear uptrend in the price movement. ➖ An ascending triangle pattern has formed, and following the breakout, the price has retraced to the breakout level. ➖ At this moment, the price is attempting to find support at the 50 EMA. ➖ From a technical standpoint, the stock is resting at a support level, making it an attractive option for accumulation with a mid to long-term investment outlook. ◉ Relative Strength ➖ The chart clearly illustrates that Stride Inc. has greatly outperformed the US Smallcap 2000 index, achieving an impressive annual return of 82%, which is a notable achievement. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Year-on-year ➖ In FY24, revenue surged by 11.3%, reaching $2,040 million, up from $1,837 million in FY23. ➖ EBITDA saw a substantial boost, climbing to $295.3 million in FY24 compared to $225.2 million the previous year. ➖ The EBITDA margin also experienced growth, rising to 14.47% from 12.26% in FY23. ➖ Additionally, diluted EPS witnessed an impressive increase of 57.91%, jumping to $4.69 in FY24 from $2.97 in FY23. ● Quarter-on-quarter ➖ In the latest June quarter, the company achieved a remarkable milestone with quarterly sales reaching an all-time high of $520.8 million. This marks a 3% increase from the $504.9 million recorded in the March quarter and a significant 10.75% rise compared to $470.3 million in the same quarter last year. ➖ EBITDA declined from $100.2 million to $82.3 million in the latest quarter, representing a 17.8% decrease. ◉ Valuation ◉ PE Ratio ● Current PE Ratio vs. Median PE Ratio ➖ The present price-to-earnings ratio for this stock is 16.2x, which is considerably below its four-year median price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9x times, indicating that the stock is currently undervalued. ● Current PE vs. Peer Average PE ➖ The stock presents a favorable valuation when considering its Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 16.2x, which is lower than the average of its peers at 18.3x. ● Current PE vs. Industry Average PE ➖ Stride appears to be offered at a more competitive price, featuring a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 16.2x, which is significantly below the average of 19.2x for the US Consumer Services industry. ◉ PB Ratio ● Current PB vs. Peer Average PB ➖ The present PB ratio in relation to the average PB of peers indicates that the stock is somewhat higher, with a ratio of 2.8x in contrast to the peer average of 2.6x. ● Current PB vs. Industry Average PB ➖ When comparing the current PB ratio to the industry average, Stride appears to be considerably overvalued, exhibiting a PB ratio of 2.8x, while the industry average stands at 1.6x. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ The cash generated from operations has experienced substantial growth in fiscal year 2024, increasing to $278.8 million from $203.2 million in fiscal year 2023. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ Stride has a total debt of $528.2 million, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44. ➖ The company generates sufficient interest income to exceed its interest expenses, indicating that interest payment coverage is not an issue. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ BlackRock Inc. holds a significant ownership interest in this company, with a notable stake of 14.9%. This level of investment reflects BlackRock's confidence in the company's potential for growth and profitability. ➖ The Vanguard Group also maintains a considerable presence, owning 10.7% of the company's shares. ➖ Together, these two investment giants represent a substantial portion of the company's equity, indicating strong institutional support and interest in its future performance. ◉ Conclusion Upon examining Stride Inc.'s financial performance, we focused on essential metrics such as revenue growth, profit margins, and the stability of cash flow. Additionally, we assessed the company's future growth potential by looking into industry trends and the competitive landscape. As a result, we are confident that Stride Inc. is positioned to capitalize on new opportunities while effectively navigating challenges, making it an attractive option for both investors and stakeholders.
Editors' picks
NYSE:LRNLong
by NaranjCapital
6
Antitrust Threat Looms Over Google, Shares Could Plummet by 10%!Google's dominance might be ending. A U.S. judge has decided that the company's control over search is unfair competition. This could lead to Alphabet, Google's parent company, being split up and a major change in online advertising. A new era of search could be coming, as the internet's main player may soon lose its power. Technical Analysis The share price has surged by over 190% since hitting its lowest point during the Covid-19 crash. Following a previous peak of $152, the stock experienced a significant drop and subsequently entered a prolonged phase of consolidation. After approximately 2.5 years of this price stabilization, the stock finally broke through its prior resistance in April 2024. This significant breakthrough resulted in an impressive surge, propelled the price to a new all-time high of $193. However, the stock price faced considerable resistance at that level, resulted in a decline and eventually breaking down of its upward-trending parallel channel. The stock is likely to experience a sharp decline of about 10%, finding support somewhere between $132 and $131.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by NaranjCapital
SPX: A Double Top at the peak could lead to a short-term fall! The chart depicts a steady upward trend of the index. After reaching an all-time high close to the 5,670 level, the index saw a significant decline, dropped by nearly 550 points. However, after a recovery, the index once again neared its previous high, but experienced another setback. The emergence of a Double Top pattern, along with a clear RSI divergence, indicates that the index may face difficulties in the near future. On the downside, immediate support is found between the 5,250 and 5,300 levels. A break below this support could lead to a considerable drop in the index.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
NOC vs LMT: A Valuation War Between Top Defence Manufacturers!ABOUT COMPANIES Northrop Grumman NYSE:NOC excels in advanced aircraft systems, divided into four main areas: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. Aeronautics Systems designs and manufactures cutting-edge aircraft for the U.S. military and global clients. Defense Systems integrates battle management and weaponry, while Mission Systems delivers innovative solutions for defense and intelligence. Space Systems focuses on solutions for national security and commercial purposes. Established in 1939 by John K. Northrop and others, the company is headquartered in Falls Church, VA. Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT stands as a top global security and aerospace company, dedicated to the research, design, and production of advanced technology systems. It operates in four primary segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), and Space. The Aeronautics segment focuses on military aircraft, including combat and drones. MFC specializes in air and missile defense and precision strike systems. RMS develops military and commercial helicopters and cyber solutions, while the Space segment creates satellites and defense systems. Founded in 1912, the company is located in Bethesda, MD. MARKET CAPITALIZATION ● Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) - $75.96 Billion ● Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) - $135.53 Billion TECHNICAL ASPECTS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ The monthly chart shows that the stock price is currently on a distinct upward path. ➖ Previously, it faced resistance around the $360 level, caused a notable pullback. ➖ Subsequently, the price formed a Double Bottom pattern and broke out successfully. ➖ This breakout drove the price to an all-time high near the $556 level but the price started declining from there. ➖ Nevertheless, the stock price found strong support around the $420 level, allowed it to bounce back. ➖ Currently, the stock is approaching its previous all-time high, and if it can overcome that resistance, we can anticipate further price increases in the coming days. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ This stock is on a strong upward trajectory, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. ➖ Following a significant breakout around the $500 mark, the stock price surged and is now trading at $568.5, just shy of its all-time peak of $578.7. ➖ From a technical perspective, the price is hovering just below the upper boundary of a parallel channel, which may act as a resistance point. ➖ However, if the price can break through this range and maintain that momentum, we could see even greater upward movement ahead. Relative Strength ● The chart shows that the NYSE Composite TVC:NYA has provided a solid return on investment of about 18% in the last year. In comparison, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin have done even better, with returns of around 20% and 27%, respectively. REVENUE BREAKDOWN ● Northrop Grumman The company derives its income from four main segments. ➖ The largest share comes from the space systems segment, contributing around 33%, which equates to $14.34 billion out of a total revenue of $43 billion. ➖ Next, the aeronautics systems segment adds nearly 27%, bringing in $11.61 billion of the overall revenue. ➖ The mission systems segment follows closely, accounting for about 26%, or $11.12 billion of the total. ➖ Finally, the defense systems segment generates nearly 14%, totaling $5.99 billion of the overall revenue. ● Lockheed Martin Similar to Northrop Grumman, this company also operates through four segments to drive its revenue. ➖ The aeronautics segment leads the way, contributing around 38.4%, which amounts to nearly $28.77 billion of the total revenue of $74.85 billion. ➖ The rotary and mission systems segment accounts for 26.4% of revenue, equating to $19.76 billion. ➖ Next, the space segment contributes 17.8%, which is $13.33 billion. ➖ Finally, the missile and fire control segment makes up 17.4%, totaling $12.99 billion of the overall revenue. REVENUE & PROFIT ANALYSIS ● Northrop Grumman Revenue ➖ For the FY23 the revenue has jumped by 7.3% to $39.3 B from $36.6 B in FY22. ➖ In the recent June quarter there is no significant surge in revenue as the recent quarterly revenue stands at $10.2 B compared to $10.1 B in the march 2024. But from the last year June quarter the revenue has grown by almost 6% from $9.6 B. Profit ➖ The operating profit has experienced a decline, with FY23 reporting only $2.9 billion, a drop from $6.3 billion in FY22. ➖ In the latest June quarter, the operating profit held steady at $1.3 billion, unchanged from the March quarter. Basic EPS (LTM) ➖ The basic EPS saw a slight rise in June, climbing to $15.26 (LTM) from $14.33 (LTM) in March 2024. However, compared to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant drop from $30.23 (LTM) Analyzing these numbers shows that although revenue has risen, the company is having difficulty producing profits, which may impact the share price in the near term. ● Lockheed Martin Revenue ➖ In FY23, the company experienced a slight revenue increase of 2.4%, rising to $67.6 billion from $66 billion in FY22. ➖ During the recent June quarter, revenue reached $18.1 billion, up from $17.2 billion in the March quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, this represents a significant growth of approximately 8.6%, up from $16.7 billion. Profit ➖ The operating income has experienced a year-over-year increase. For FY23, it reached $9.0 billion, marking a 23% rise from $7.3 billion in FY22. ➖ However, there hasn't been a notable change in operating profit on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In June, the operating profit stood at $2.2 billion, slightly up from $2.1 billion in March. This figure is consistent with the operating profit reported in the same quarter last year. Basic EPS (LTM) ➖ The basic EPS stood at $27.58 (LTM) in June 2024 ➖ Over the past year, there has been no notable growth in EPS (LTM) Lockheed Martin demonstrates a more robust financial standing compared to Northman Grumman. VALUATION ● P/E Ratio ➖ P/E vs. Median P/E (1) Northrop Grumman's current price-to-earnings ratio over the past twelve months stands at 33.2x, which appears elevated when compared to its four-year median of 15.2x. (2) Lockheed Martin's recent twelve-month p/e ratio is 20.1x, also showing a rise relative to its four-year median of 16.2x. ➖ P/E vs. Industry P/E (1) NOC shows a fair valuation with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 33.2x, which is just below the US Aerospace & Defense Industry average of 33.3x. (2) On the other hand, LMT, with a P/E of 20.1x, seems to be undervalued relative to the industry average of 33.3x. ● P/B Ratio ➖ NOC's current P/B ratio of 5.3x appears inflated when stacked against the US Aerospace & Defense Industry average of 3.2x. ➖ In the case of LMT, it stands out as significantly overvalued, boasting a P/B ratio of 21.9x, which is far above the industry average of 3.2x. FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ In FY23, cash flow from operations saw a remarkable increase, climbing to $3.9 billion, a notable rise from $2.9 billion in FY22. ➖ In the most recent quarter, this figure reached $4.4 billion, up from $3.9 billion in March. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ There was little change in operating cash flow, with FY23 reporting $7.9 billion, which is nearly the same as the $7.8 billion recorded in FY22. ➖ On a quarterly basis, there has been an uptick; for the June quarter, operating cash flow stood at $8.8 billion, an increase from $8.0 billion in March and $7.7 billion in the same quarter last year. DEBT ANALYSIS ● NOC currently has a debt of $16.3 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 114%. While this may raise some concerns, the company boasts an interest coverage ratio of 5.2, indicating a solid ability to manage interest payments on its debt. ● In contrast, LMT carries a debt of $19.3 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 311%, which suggests poor financial health. However, with an impressive interest coverage ratio of 8.9, the company is in a strong position to meet its interest obligations. TOP SHAREHOLDERS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ State Street Global has a notable 9.59% ownership in this firm, while The Vanguard Group possesses a considerable 8.22% stake. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ In addition to the 11.2% held by Lockheed Martin's Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), State Street Global and The Vanguard Group own 15.1% and 8.99% respectively. ➖ BlackRock also maintains a significant 7.13% interest in this company. CONCLUSION After reviewing all the financial metrics, it becomes evident that each company possesses distinct strengths and weaknesses. It's difficult to determine which one is the superior investment choice at this moment. A look at the monthly chart indicates that both companies are currently at a high point, but they could be good candidates for accumulation during any significant downturns. In 2023, the US spent $916 billion on defense, which was more than any other country. This was an increase of $55 billion from 2022. and this figure could increase given the current global landscape. Therefore, companies like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin are expected to perform well in the foreseeable future.
NYSE:NOCLong
by NaranjCapital
Major Sectors that may influence US Markets this week!Health Care Following an extended consolidation phase from December 2021 to August 2024, the healthcare index has developed an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. With a recent breakout, the index is now set to experience significant upward momentum. Industrials Similar to the healthcare index, the industrials sector has also established an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Following its breakout, this index has shown positive movement. With a recent breakout from a brief consolidation phase, the index is ready to climb once more. Financials The financial sector plays a vital role in the US stock market. Recently, the financial index experienced a robust breakout after a lengthy consolidation phase, indicating that this sector could enhance the overall US market. Real Estate The real estate sector has faced challenges for a considerable time, with the index suffering a significant downturn. However, following a recent breakthrough, the index is making progress toward recovery.
SP:SPFLong
by NaranjCapital
1
Concerned about aging? Start investing in Addus now!The aging U.S. population is set to double by 2050, increasing the need for caregivers. Addus HomeCare Corporation, based in Frisco, Texas, provides essential personal care, hospice, and home health services. With a market cap of $2.35 billion, Addus reported $1.115 billion in revenue in June 2024, with a 27% profit increase. The company is debt-free and has major shareholders like Blackrock and The Vanguard Group. EPS is forecasted to grow significantly by December 2025. With a growing need for home healthcare services, the company is well-positioned to expand its customer base and market presence. Company Overview Addus HomeCare Corporation and its subsidiaries offer personal care services for the elderly, disabled, and those at risk of hospitalization in the U.S. It operates in three areas: Personal Care, Hospice, and Home Health. The Personal Care segment helps with daily activities like bathing, grooming, and meal preparation. The Hospice segment provides care and support for terminally ill patients and their families. The Home Health segment delivers skilled nursing and therapy services for those recovering from illness or hospitalization. Its clients include government agencies, managed care organizations, insurers, and private individuals. Founded in 1979, Addus is based in Frisco, Texas. Investment Advice by Naranj Capital Buy Addus Homecare Corporation NASDAQ:ADUS ● Buy Range- 120 - 125 ● Target- 150 - 160 ● Potential Return- 25-30% ● Duration- 10 -12 Months Market Capitalization - $ 2.35B Sector - Healthcare (Nursing) Technical Analysis ● The monthly chart indicates a clear upward trend in prices. ● Earlier, the stock peaked near the 129 (128.8 to be precise) level before experiencing a correction, which was subsequently followed by an elongated consolidation period from November 2020 to July 2024. ● Recently, the stock has successfully made a multi-year breakout of the previous resistance zone and has maintained its position above this breakout level. ● We expect this momentum to persist, leading to further price increases in the days ahead. Entry, Exit & Stop-loss ● Entry with Capital allocation strategy (1) consider adding 50% of your desired quantity at the current market price (132 - 133). (2) The second buying opportunity will be in the 120 - 122 range, where you can also add rest 50% of your quantity. ● Target Chart analysis indicates a promising upside potential of 25-30% for this stock from the best buying level, with a target around the 155 to 160. There is also a strong likelihood that the stock could exceed this target. ● Stoploss It is crucial to implement a strict stop-loss below the 115 level, as we anticipate that the stock may encounter challenges if it drops to this point. Revenue Breakdown The company generates its revenue through three primary segments. (1) The personal care sector represents around 74.2% of the overall revenue, totaling $827 million out of $1.11 billion. (2) Meanwhile, hospice services contribute nearly 19.7%, amounting to $219.8 million of the total revenue. (3) The home health segment accounts for approximately 6.1%, which translates to $67.8 million of the overall revenue. Sales & Profit Analysis ● A noticeable rise in revenue has been observed. For the June quarter, revenue reached $1.115 billion, marking an 11.6% increase from $999 million in June 2023 (YoY) and a 2.5% rise from $1.08 billion in March 2024 (QoQ). ● Additionally, profits surged by 27% in the latest quarter, climbing to $68.89 million from $53.83 million in the same quarter last year, and up 5% from $65.67 million in March 2024. ● The profit margin has also improved, increasing from 5.4% to 6.2% year-on-year. ● The basic EPS for the June 2024 quarter is reported at 4.28, marking a significant increase of 27% from 3.37 in the same quarter last year. Peer Companies (1) Privia Health Group (NASDAQ: PRVA) - $ 2.41B NASDAQ:PRVA (2) Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) - $ 3.21B NASDAQ:AMED (3) Astrana Health (NASDAQ: ASTH) - $ 2.33B NASDAQ:ASTH Valuation ● P/E vs Fair P/E Ratio ➖ The current PE ratio stands at 34.1x, slightly expensive to the estimated Fair PE of 28.7x. ● P/E Ratio vs Peers ➖ ADUS offers great value with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 34.1x, significantly lower than the peer average of 62.7x. ● P/E Ratio vs Industry P/E ➖ ADUS seems to come at a higher price, boasting a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 34.1x, notably surpassing the US Healthcare industry average of 26.2x. Debt Analysis ➖ ADUS stands proudly as a debt-free entity, a remarkable transformation from five years ago when its debt to equity ratio stood at 12.9%. This significant shift underscores the company's commitment to financial health and stability. Top Shareholders ● Blackrock currently holds a substantial 16% stake in this stock, reflecting an impressive increase of 11.2% since the March quarter. ● Meanwhile, The Vanguard Group has also boosted its investment, raising its stake by 8.5% from the previous quarter, bringing their total holding to 7.74%. Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts Experts forecast that the earnings per share (EPS) could increase from $4.28 to $4.51 by December 2024, and further rise to $5.03 by December 2025. Conclusion With the growing need for home healthcare services, the company is well-positioned to broaden its customer base and enhance its market presence.
NASDAQ:ADUSLong
by NaranjCapital
1
Apple is a great buy once it exceeds 240! The stock experienced an extended period of consolidation, during which it formed several bullish chart patterns, including the Double Bottom and Rounding Bottom. After the price broke above the neckline of the Rounding Bottom, the stock surged to reach an all-time high close to the 237 level. Since then, it has retraced nearly 17%-18%, returned to its support level. Now, with a robust rebound underway, the stock is approaching its resistance zone, and there are strong expectations for a significant breakout. The optimal buying opportunity lies just above the 240 level.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by NaranjCapital
25
Resistance is ahead! Can the Dow Jones make a break through? The index is clearly demonstrating a strong upward trend, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. During this upward movement, it previously established a bullish Pole & Flag pattern, and after breaking out, the index has continued to rise. At present, the index is trading just beneath its next resistance level. If the Dow Jones manage to break through and hold above this breakout point, it is likely to initiate a new rally.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by NaranjCapital
Burlington Stores is set for significant upward movement. After the market crash in March 2020, the stock price stabilized around the 110 level and began to rise. This upswing drove the price to an impressive high near 350, reaching an all-time peak. During this phase, a Rising Wedge pattern formed, and following a subsequent breakdown, the stock underwent a significant correction, returned to its previous support level. Subsequently, the stock made a strong recovery, climbing to around 250 before encountering resistance. After a notable decline, it found support once more near 115. Another rebound occurred, leading the price to a recent breakthrough above previous resistance levels. It is anticipated that this momentum will persist, leading the stock to achieve new highs in the near future.
NYSE:BURLLong
by NaranjCapital
TKO is poised for a major multi-year breakthrough!Weekly Chart The 100 level has shown to be a significant resistance point for the stock, as it faced multiple rejections at this level. Following these rejections, the stock entered a significant consolidation phase, which led to the formation of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. After breaking out of this formation, the stock price soared, reaching a peak around the 117 level before experiencing a decline. However, the stock found support at the 200 WEMA and rebounded from that level.. At present, the stock is lingering near the resistance zone, and with an increase in trading volume, there is a strong expectation that it will achieve a breakout this time around. The appearance of an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart indicates a bullish sentiment. Daily Chart The daily chart shows that after being rejected near the 117 level, the stock fell but then reversed by breaking above the double bottom pattern. Since then, the stock has maintained its upward trend and is now close to a major breakout. The rising volume indicates that the price is preparing for an upward move.
NYSE:TKOLong
by NaranjCapital
2
Jesse Livermore: Trading Lessons From an Iconic Trader● Jesse Livermore, a successful stock trader, built a fortune of $100 million in 1929. He operated independently, using his own capital and strategies. Livermore preferred trending stocks and used price patterns and volume analysis to decide trades. ● Livermore's Trading Principles (1) Trade with the trend A well-known saying is "The Trend Is Your Friend." Livermore preferred to trade stocks that were trending and avoided sideways market. (2) Get confirmation before entering any trade Hold off until the market shows clear signs before making a move. Being patient can lead to significant profits. (3) Trade with a strict stop-loss It is crucial to set a strict stop-loss for every trade, and it's important to know the stop-loss level before starting any trade. This approach can help a trader avoid significant losses. (4) Trade the leading stocks from each sector Livermore liked to trade stocks that were leaders in their industry. He thought this approach could increase his chances of winning. (5) Avoid average down losing trades He chose to exit the position rather than averaging it down. (6) Avoid following too much stocks It's quite challenging to monitor numerous stocks simultaneously. Focusing on a smaller number of stocks could lead to better trading opportunities.
Education
by NaranjCapital
ALNY, LTH & ZETA - The momentum may drive prices to new heights!Alnylam Pharmaceuticals The stock price has encountered several rejections around the 212 level, leading to subsequent corrections. After establishing a Double Bottom pattern, the price attempted to reverse the downward trend but was unable to do so, facing rejection at the 200 level. Consequently, the stock underwent another correction. Following this, the price entered a consolidation phase, forming a Box pattern for a while. In a surprising turn, the price gapped up significantly and broke through its former strong resistance area, remaining above it. Following a brief pullback, the price resumed its upward trajectory, supported by solid trading volume. Life Time Group Holdings Following a rejection around the 22.5 level in November 2021, the stock experienced a significant decline, dropping to just 8.75. Subsequently, the price began to rise again, eventually returning to its previous strong resistance level after a lengthy climb. However, it struggled to break through that barrier and faced another substantial drop. During this downturn, the stock hit a low around 11.3 and then navigated through numerous fluctuations, leading to the formation of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the chart. After successfully breaking out of this pattern to the upside, the price surged and managed to overcome the resistance level. If the stock can hold onto this level, we might see even more upward momentum in the days ahead. Zeta Global Holdings The stock price had been consolidating within a Box Pattern before breaking free. Since that breakout, the stock has experienced a steady uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. Amid this upward movement, a Cup & Handle pattern formed, signaling that the trend is likely to persist. Following the breakout, the price is now climbing higher, supported by a significant increase in trading volume.
NASDAQ:ALNYLong
by NaranjCapital
The US index has been declining for three weeks. What's ahead?S&P 500 After the Cup & Handle pattern breakout, the market surged to nearly 5,670, setting a new record high. Since then, the index has been on a downward trend for the last three weeks, forming the Three Black Crows chart pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. With the current market conditions, it is expected that potential support will be around the 4,400-4,500 level. Nasdaq 100 The US tech index has experienced a significant increase in momentum and achieved a respectable gain over the last 8-9 months. However, the index encountered a strong resistance near the 20,700 level, which is its all-time high. With three consecutive weeks of decline, the index appears to be in a weakened state and may revisit the 15,500-15,600 level for support before rebounding.
SP:SPX
by NaranjCapital