NQ1! - Opex Week - Mr. Powell or Mr. BrainardThe Federal Reserve Chair will be assigned by President Biden before Thanksgiving. Will the announcement arrive during Opex Week? This is the wildcard in the market. NASDAQ found resistance, after a morning tech rally fueled by AAPL, TSLA, and MSFT, at the 2h MBB, returning to set-up at the 8 EMA. Two Bearish Patterns to watch in the form of a Rising Wedge and H&S. NVDA had great earnings for the sector leader. The 10 year note and BTC have consolidated, with the note sitting just under the 16 mark at 1.585.
NAS
NAS - 3 Wedges - Time to Pause, Recharge, and Take StockAs the run continues into blue skies, NQ1! is supported by the 2 hour 8 EMA. Watching for RSI divergences on new highs as price has overthrown the third wedge. The 10 Year Note set a 4 Hour Higher Low. The melt-up is on until a clear reversal pattern breaks and is back-tested on the 4 hour frame. For me it is time for a break, to step away from the creative pursuit of publishing Technical Art, and to focus on finding the space within the present moment. The digital world has brought so much good, and to keep it positive great care must be made to sow balance. I wish you all best in the last two months of 2021.
NAS | Norwegian Air Shuttle | LongEntry Range: 10.374 - 9.902
Avg. Entry: 10.022 (RRR: 2)
1st. Profit Target: 11.270
Stop Loss: 9.404
HOW TO ENTER MY TRADES
1. Ladder your entries.
You'll want to ladder place your orders exponentially within the Entry Range to the point your RRR is atleast 1.5 if fully filled.
2. Only first touches are valid.
If price is rebounding back into the entry zone after either the profit target or stop loss was hit the entry zone is no longer valid
NAS - A Scenario A practice that provides opportunity for preparedness, and holds the risk of imprinting bias, scenario planning belies a unique place in the traders tool box. Here is to dream, and in dream form only, that sees a continued massive crash to the upside for the Santa Claus Rally. Followed-up by Rate Volatility, a neckline bounce to a right shoulder and onto the third test of the point of control. The odds are against it, but now, if it comes to pass, it will not be the first-time it has been considered.
The Right Shoulder - NAS and BTCFrom the Higher Low of the Right Shoulder to the necklines is producing repeating bear plays that have a consistent profile. In this example, NAS from September on the daily, and BTC last week on the 4-hour, show very similar profiles, with opportunity bearish falling to their neckline.
Short ADI on an upwards wedgePuts on ADI
~SL above ATH (180.77)
~PT1 172.50 (could see strong support here)
~PT2 170
~PT3 168
RSI divergence on last 2 ATH, a rejection at the resistance line in an uptrend, gap to fill on down 168-170
We saw a double bottom from this last impulsive move. a pullback to the neckline at PT1 very likely.
LCID bull flagLCID: Strong downwards wedge after impulsive move signals a bull flag
~ What is interesting about this graph is the VI. It showed bearish momentum but yet had increasing price action! Imagine when the VI sends bullish momentum!
~ RSI also has a lot of room to grow.
~ The only errs in this graph are the death cross on the 11th signifying a bear trend. But this cross is weak as it has low volume.
~ Another err is the false breakout on the lower side before coming back in. This can be attested to the QQQ action of dumping today. The fact LCID was able to stay bullish despite QQQ and the VI being bearish/choppy for some of the day
AMD short opportunityAMD: Using fib retracement, after an impulsive move a pullback to the 0.5, 0.618, or 0.786 is very likely and healthy in an uptrend.
~ Golden cross happened on the 11th signaling the start of another uptrend.
~ on the 11th AMD did a similar but smaller sized impulse with a pullback to the 0.786. This helps visualize the theory of fib
~ RSI on the hourly has a lot of room to "dump"
NAS100Pattern: trend
Entry: at nas100 current price we have no entry. we must wait for the support of the level in play to get a good risk to reward ratio on entering a long to the upside trend target and potentially to the supply zones. If this fails to happen we should watch for a DOUBLE BOTTOM ON 1HR TF to potentially buy with the trend. if no double bottom forms we sell off and break trend into targets.
Major Markets WorksheetSPX, through a confirmed iH&S via The Russell 2000, reversed on Friday. Mini-Pennants are forming on the two hour frame. NAS is the outlier, while price advanced with SPX the path included a lower low, invalidating an iH&S pattern. NAS is working on printing a two hour broaden wedge pattern. The Vix hit the 50% Break Target of the Bull Pennant, finding resistance there.
Market Dashboard - RecapWith NAS and SPX making Lower Lows it time to be on the look-out for RSI Divergences, Volume and a reversal pattern. The prospective i-H&S pattern on NAS was swamped by Russell confirmation of a H&S: as the Vix breaks out a pennant. The game changes Vix +20, in this case resistance is being met with instant selling pressure.