Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ Next weekPrice Running between Ascending channel and already
touches upper border and clear bos there
i expect price will fall down till bellow trend line
that is strong trend line in 4 Hour
However we have 2 scenarios. if price broken the below trend line
will fall to below imbalance around 19000 level. That means down border of channel
If price got bullish rejection near trend line price will rise around 2100 - 2200 areas.
waing to bullish or bearish confirmation and execute your trade. good luck
GBPUSD FALLINGStill going down after already a huge drawdown ;
the blue lines are the main recent interesting KL, reaching it one by one, slightly bouncing then still going down seems like the next move ;
but it s the same as fibonacci, it might bounce harder on one and even change the whole trend to a new uptrend.
CHANGE OF DIRECTION FOR EURUSDAt first we thought it would keep going up, but it broke an important line on Friday before closing, which tends to show it keeps the bearish position ;
not sure about that tbh, but it seems too early to call a bearish trend for this pair, even though it might happen at some point soon ;
the next KL, LL and key lines will tell us if we're right or no.
BTC LATEWe thought it would go back up right now, but it turns out it made an unexpected line cutting (white cut line) ;
it s going towards the next LL KL, hitting some key points then going back up pretty quick before wednesday ;
it is now a smooth drawdown pattern, where it falls smoothly and calmly before hitting one big red candle.
NASDAQ Strong Bullish Momentum ContinuesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a buying opportunity around 20200 zone, NASDAQ is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 20200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
QQQ - Breakout or Fakeout?Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.
GBPCAD RE TESTINGThe potential downtrend in the GBP/CAD currency pair may be influenced by several critical factors. The Bank of Canada's relatively hawkish monetary stance, supported by strong economic data, contrasts with the Bank of England's cautious approach due to slowing UK economic growth. Declining global oil prices could limit the downside for the Canadian dollar, as Canada is a major oil exporter. On the technical side, GBP/CAD has recently tested key support levels, and failure to hold these levels may signal further bearish momentum.
GBPUSD FREE FALLThe GBP/USD currency pair has recently exhibited a downward trend, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns, leading investors to favor the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Divergent monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and the Bank of England adopting a more cautious approach, have further pressured the pair. Technical indicators show breaches of key support levels like 1.2842, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Traders should closely monitor economic data and central bank communications to adapt their strategies.
NEW NASDAQ ROUTEThe potential drop in the NASDAQ in the coming days could be driven by several key factors. First, macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions or the persistence of high interest rates, could increase market volatility. Additionally, recent disappointing quarterly earnings from major tech companies, which are often heavily weighted in the index, add downward pressure. Lastly, technical signals such as the breach of critical support levels or a decline below the 50-day moving average could trigger accelerated sell-offs. Investors should closely monitor these indicators to assess risks and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
NZDJPY RIGHT NOW !!!NZDJPY reached the point of decision ;
according to previous data, it should reverse right now in a huge V pattern, and then correct to return back up then ;
however stay advised, nothing is never sure, but this seems like a great trade to get into right now ;
the SL would be placed just under the yellow trend line, around 90.600.
BTCUSD | Trade idea
BTCUSD Performance: BTCUSD pulled back after reaching a minor top around $65,000, hitting a high of $65,103 and currently trading around $62,500.
Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 71.50% from 71% a week ago (CME Fed watch tool).
BTC ETF Inflows: BTC ETF saw an inflow of $202.51 million, with BlackRock attracting $224 million.
US Markets: NASDAQ, which has a negative correlation with BTC, is bearish but neutral for BTC. NASDAQ is trading weak ahead of Nvidia earnings; a close above 20,000 could push it to 20,500.
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracementNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,660.10 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 20,480.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,986.01 which is a pullback resistance.
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MORE ACCURATE ROUTE FOR GOLDour idea is still valid but needs a little bit of clarification : we thought gold would follow some kind of round top pattern ;
now it seems like a 3/4 tops and a HH, then a drawdown to 2500s by next week.
However it will come back up at some point soon, around the beginning of 2025, so stay advised and don't try to sell it under 2500.
USDJPY UPMaybe a little too optimistic on the detail precision, but this should turn out like that at some point tonight and tommorrow ;
USD has been on a big rally lately thanks to Trump and is not done yet, now is still the time for USD products to go high ;
however there could be a massive correction soon with VIX and GOLD going back up, but not for another week or more.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 14 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - PPI and Initial jobless claims
News - None
Directional bias - Not sure, morning analysis should guide
Morning analysis:
M TF - Still very bullish, this months candle is up 10'700 pips but still 15 days till candle close. This shows that on the highest level, Nas is very bullish.
W TF - At time of writing this morning, candle is red. The red body is about 1500 pips. This indicates short term bearish bias. Look at last week's candle close, which closed at an all time high after breaking a very strong W resistance, it is reasonable to expect price to retrace.
D TF - Price action is showing that price is stalling. There are very long wick candles for 4 days, which represent the struggle between bulls and bears. As candle bodies are red, we see that bears are slowing managing to push price lower and lower. The way candles look at time of writing, I view this TF to be bearish.
4H TF - Shows a choppy market. There are no clear higher highs and higher lows or lower high and lower lows. Price is spiking widely in either direction, again representing the intense battle between bulls and bears. Three things are clear though, bulls have been unable to break the 0.618 SELL fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A.). Bulls have been unable to break the 4H H&S neckline upwards. And lastly, up until yesterday, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support with bears being unable to break through downwards. But now this morning we have a clear 4H candle close below the EMA and if the 7am 4H candle closes below the EMA again, it shows that bulls were unable to push sellers back up at this level.
1H - Price is in a very bearish position. The 4H and 1H EMA are now above price and can be expected to act as dynamic resistance. The daily pivot point is also above price. Bulls will have to step in with volume and momentum to be able to break through these stacked resistance levels.
Directional bias - looks very bearish. If 4H candle closes at a lower low beneath the 4H EMA, I would consider a sell. Otherwise if a DB forms on the 1H TF and breaks the neckline and subsequently the 1H and 4H EMA, I will enter a buy.
No set bias today because TF showing bearish bias, while M TF is still bullish. It's also concerning that good CPI news was not enough to break through the sell fib levels.
I will let price action indicate what Nasdaq wants to do today.
As the day progressed:
So indeed the 7am 4H candle closed below the EMA. I did not enter a sell because I noted that the candle closed exactly at the 100 EMA of the 1H TF (marked with the thick blue line). It can be seen that this EMA has provided dynamic support to 3 candle touches before at A, C and D..
So in an effort to avoid repeating yesterday's mistake (of buying at resistance), I didn't want to sell at dynamic support. So moving down to the 5min and 15min TF after this candle closed, it was clear that price could not break this support and I did not enter a sell.
Then....
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - a DB formed on the 1H, with the neckline broken upwards. The break of the neckline was with a huge momentum candle breaking both the EMAs (1H EMA and 4H EMA - at time of entry the 4H EMA was in the position as marked by the purple line)
2. S&R - Pivot point broken
3. Trend - Temporary downtrend (marked in blue broken)
4. Fib - DB formed below the 0.618 fib level
Mental SL placed at half the height of the DB that I entered in on.
Unfortunately, price came back down and I close my position at my stop loss.
Decided to be out for the day.
What could I have done differently?
Losses are inevitable in trading. They will happen, whether you like it or not. The only question is....are you happy with your loss or not.
I am happy with this loss. I entered on good confirmations and I also entered with half my usual position size because my plan was to enter the other half position if price re-tested the neckline of the DB and moved up again.
So by entering small I managed my risk.
I have had this experience before where I enter on a high TF (1H) DB and price still moves down. This happened when Nas was making bigger TF retracements.
Also, at time of writing (tonight) the D candle has a long red body. If it closes with a long red body...it means we are entering a waterfall situation where price is pushing down with bigger and bigger candle bodies, gaining momentum.
Nas turning very bearish. Will need to consider my directional bias carefully tomorrow and only enter buys on 4H DB or 1H DB if the neckline has been re-tested and price then still moves up.
Hope you caught the nice sell!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100USD Pattern FormationThis index has been ranging for the past few days ever since it hit its HH, forming a falling flag in the process. This is an indication of indecision in the market, if the bullish momentum will continue / a potential bearish run.
We will wait for the price to break out of the formation to know where we can enter our trades.
Looking for NAS100 to Short back to Previous Structure High. Notes: Possible descending triangle forming.
look fore bearish sell to trend line/61.8/H4 lvl or H4
Structure point 50% prz/daily lvl 20,595
H1 lvl showing possible Bearish trend beginning
LL & LH formed with Liquidity sweep just above LH
Daily: Bullish
H4: Bullish
H1: Bullish
Thesis: Price is bullish forming a descending triangle
preparing for sell off to trend line.