NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq Thoughts 24-Sept-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Nasdaq market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
2024-09-24 Nasdaq / Nas100Hello, this is ViViD. Here is today’s Nasdaq analysis.
This is the daily Nasdaq chart. As I mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for further upward movement to happen, the price needs to break above the resistance level of the supply zone. This would allow for potential entry from a buying perspective. However, the price movement has been sideways due to the supply zone's resistance, which hasn't yet determined a clear direction.
As we can see in the daily chart, the current pattern shows a pennant pattern, which could indicate a consolidation to the right before a potential continuation of the upward trend. On the contrary, it could also signify a peak, leading to a decline after breaking below the support level.
In the Asian session, we observed a break of the upward trend line. You can see the breakdown in the blue box. However, the rebound zone after the break is noteworthy. The white trend line indicates that the price is making slightly higher lows, establishing a form of support.
Thus, Nasdaq seems to be defending this zone. The key to focus on is whether the white short-term support line holds. The main takeaway is that while the trend is making higher lows and defending the price, the most critical point for a selling perspective is the break below the white support line at the lowest level of 20016.25.
Now, for a buying perspective: The optimal entry point seems to be when the price breaks above the blue box zone, which corresponds to breaking both the price level and the resistance trend line. The reason 20127 is significant is that the white box shows two instances of resistance at this level, making a breakout here critical.
Once the price breaks through, the targets would be at 20164, 20204, and 20264, with additional resistances along the way. However, this breakout could signal the pennant pattern's upward continuation, stabilizing the long-term trend for further upward momentum.
Today, we have the CB Consumer Confidence data, so be cautious of any sharp market changes after the announcement. I hope you have a profitable day!
- ViViD -
24-09-23 nasdaqHello, this is Vivid.
Here’s today’s analysis of the Nasdaq.
Looking at the daily chart of the Nasdaq, it is currently supported by the 20-period and 60-period moving averages. The resistance at the high point of the blue box on the left side of the chart, at 20251.50, appears to be relatively strong. This area was a turning point, and I expect a retest of the high or a breakout, but just because the market trend is upward doesn't necessarily mean it will break through; it could also face resistance. If a breakout occurs, depending on the nature of the movement, there is a high possibility of further upward movement, with the next major resistance at 20410. In this case, we need to observe the candles within the green box, as a large bearish candle had its upper wick reach 20410, indicating it may not easily break through.
For a short-term trading strategy from a buying perspective on the 15-minute chart, if a breakout occurs, the breakthrough of the trendline is important. The current area of focus is the breakout of the red resistance line, marked with a blue box, with a short-term target set at the day's high of 20164. Additional entries would be made if today's high breaks upward. If 20164 is surpassed, the next target, confirmed by the previous week's high, would be around 20201, and if that breaks as well, it could potentially reach up to 20410.
This is the selling strategy for the day based on the 15-minute chart. Currently, we see a breakout from the upward trendline, which began on September 11. The Asian session today also showed a retest of this upward trend, and the subsequent decline established today’s low. Today’s low is 19955.25, and the entry for selling would be triggered simultaneously when we break below 19955.25 and the upward trendline. The target prices are set at 19860 and 19574, based on the lower end of the volume profile.
Please note that the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI will be announced 15 minutes after the market opens, so keep that in mind while trading.
-ViViD-
Important Support and Resistance Points: 19582.6
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To summarize the explanation below,
The current strength to maintain the uptrend is weakening.
Therefore, the key is whether it can receive support and rise near 19582.6.
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(1W chart)
A new week has begun.
The key is whether it can receive support and continue the uptrend near 19582.6.
1. Check if ADX can rise above 25
2. Check if OBV can rise above the High Line
3. Check if StochRSI enters the overbought zone
4. Check if BW can touch the highest point (100)
If 1 and 2 are satisfied, the upward trend is expected to continue.
If 3 and 4 are satisfied, the high point zone is expected to be formed.
It does not immediately fall when the high point zone is formed,
- Check if ADX shows a downward trend or falls below 25
- Check if OBV falls below the High Line or shows a downward trend
When the above two conditions are satisfied, the decline is likely to begin.
At this time, the important thing to look at is whether there is support near 19582.6.
If it falls below 19582.6, it is likely to fall to around 17854.8.
The Fibonacci ratio shown on the left side of the chart is drawn in the first rising wave.
The Fibonacci ratio shown on the right side of the chart is drawn in the second rising wave.
Therefore, if it touches the Fibonacci ratio 1 (21137.6) on the right side, it is expected to pick up the trend again.
The second rising section is expected to be around the Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (23557.7) on the left side.
The long-term uptrend resumed on the week of March 13th as it broke through the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if it starts to fall, it is expected to show significant volatility by touching the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Currently, the M-Signal on the 1M chart is rising around 17854.8.
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(1D chart)
StochRSI has touched the 100 point.
Accordingly, it is expected that even if it rises, it will eventually show a downward trend.
If it rises above 19582.6, I think it is highly likely to touch around 20313.8 and fall.
If not, it will turn into a downward trend.
At this time, what you need to check is
1. Whether ADX rises above 25.
2. Whether OBV is maintained above the high line or below the low line and remains.
If the above 1 and 2 are not satisfied, there is a possibility of forming a box section.
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Sometimes, there are people who strangely say that indicators from coin charts are used in stock charts.
Most indicators on charts have been created and used in the stock market for a long time.
I hope you know that they can be applied to all investment markets.
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Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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Mid-Week Market Report: Post-FOMC Results, Forecast UPDATES!Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024
This video will cover the updates to the Weekly Forecasts videos posted last Saturday.
With the Fed deciding to cut the rates 50 basis points, there was some volatility injected into the markets, resulting our targets being achieve!
Also, we will forecast the SP500, NAS100, DJI, GOLD, SILVER, US & uk OIL markets! So watxh until the end of the video!
If you like the video, leave a like/boost. I appreciate your comments, as well. I respond to all of my viewers.
May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ near the buyers' zone. H4 04.09.2024NASDAQ near the buyers' zone
The NASDAQ stock index is forming a correction and is approaching the strong zone of buyers 18293-18579 from which I expect its rebound upwards. So far the move down is within the correction and now the price is trading in the margin zone. But as for me, there is not enough downward manipulation and then we will look at the buyback volumes. If they appear, we will act.
NAS100 H4 | Uptrend to resume?NAS100 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,632.80 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,250.0 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,203.96 which is a pullback resistance.
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Nasdaq Thoughts 20-Sept-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Nasdaq market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
Important Support Zone: 17496.82-17806.08
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I published it as a NAS100USD chart, but this is the first time I published it as an IXIC chart.
The reason I published it as an IXIC chart is to check the gap location.
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To summarize the content below a little more,
- The key is whether it can receive support near 17806.08 and rise above 18425.15.
- If it rises, it is expected to determine the trend again near 19189.16-19615.36.
- If it falls below 17806.08
1st: 17496.82
2nd: 16480.98-16574.39
3rd: 15491.66-15780.14
You need to check whether there is support near the 1st-3rd above.
- Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, even if it continues to rise, it will eventually show a downward trend.
At this time, whether there is support near 17496.82-17806.08 is important.
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It is rising with a 2.32% gap increase.
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin when it rises above 18425.15.
Therefore, the key is whether it can rise with support above 17806.08.
If it falls below 17806.08, it is likely to fall to around 17395.53.
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It has risen above the left Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (17191.03) and is rising near the right Fibonacci ratio 0.886 (18171.81).
Therefore, if it rises above 18425.15, it is expected to determine the trend again near the right Fibonacci ratio 1 (19189.16) ~ left Fibonacci ratio 3.618 (19615.36).
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However, since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, it appears to be forming a high point.
Whether this high will be a real high or a high to create a pull back pattern will depend on where it is supported.
Therefore, if it falls to the lowest point from the current price position, the key point is whether there is support near 17496.82.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the first support area is near 17806.08.
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Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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Nasdaq Thoughts - 19-Sept-2024Good morning, traders! I'm excited to share my Nasdaq trading zones with you today, packed with potential trading opportunities. Dive in to uncover valuable insights for opening positions, but remember, these are merely guidance - not signals. Use them at your own discretion and risk. Happy trading!
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)If the Federal Reserve decides to implement a 50 basis point cut, it can often lead to a positive market reaction, particularly in technology-focused indices like the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100). However, predicting the exact magnitude of the movement is challenging as it can vary based on various factors, including:1. **Market Sentiment**: If the market perceives the rate cut as a strong signal of support for economic growth, NAS100 could see a notable rally.
2. **Investor Reactions**: Traders might react differently based on their expectations before the announcement. If the cut was anticipated, the immediate reaction might be muted, as much of the effect could have already been priced in.
3. **Additional Factors**: Other influences such as earnings reports from tech companies, inflation data, or global economic conditions can also affect how NAS100 responds post-announcement.
In general, historically, significant rate cuts have led to positive movements in indices like the NAS100, potentially allowing for gains in the range of 1-3% on the day of the announcement. However, actual outcomes will depend on the factors mentioned above and cannot be guaranteed. It’s always wise to consider volatility and other market conditions when investing.
NASDAQ Index Overview: Current Market Drivers & Future ProspectsThe NASDAQ Composite Index, known for its heavy concentration in technology stocks, has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months. On Monday, the index declined by 0.52%, in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which both saw gains. The NASDAQ’s dip amid the broader market's positive performance highlights the ongoing volatility and shifts in investor sentiment within the tech-heavy index. Let’s take a deeper look into the drivers influencing the NASDAQ Composite.
Current Fundamental Drivers
1. Interest Rate Sensitivity:
The NASDAQ Composite is heavily influenced by changes in interest rates due to its reliance on growth-oriented tech companies. Typically, technology stocks thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as their future earnings become more attractive. However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates in its next meeting, the market is eagerly anticipating how significant these cuts will be.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 67% chance of a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut. This possibility has drawn investor attention back to tech stocks, which are expected to benefit from reduced borrowing costs. A large rate cut could fuel another surge in technology stocks, but the sector has recently faced headwinds from profit-taking and sector rotation into financial and energy stocks.
2. AI and Semiconductor Influence:
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom has been a key driver of NASDAQ’s gains in 2023. Notably, Nvidia, a leading player in AI-related hardware, has seen its stock rise nearly 136% this year, while Meta, which has developed its own AI model, has gained about 51%. The strong performance of these companies underscores the central role AI plays in bolstering the NASDAQ.
Yet, the tech sector is not without challenges. Nvidia, despite being a linchpin of the AI movement, fell 1.95% on Monday, with broader semiconductor stocks also declining. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks chipmakers, dropped by 1.31%. This indicates that while AI remains a powerful force, the sector’s performance is susceptible to short-term volatility and broader market conditions.
3. Global Factors:
International developments have also played a role in the NASDAQ’s performance. For example, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.03% as the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.15%, signaling mixed sentiment in the Asia-Pacific markets. These fluctuations impact U.S. tech stocks, as many are global companies with exposure to international markets.
The strengthening Japanese yen has been particularly significant as it can affect U.S. exports, including high-tech products, reducing profitability for tech giants that rely on global sales. The Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decisions in October and December could further influence currency fluctuations and global tech performance.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ Composite remains in a precarious position. As of this writing, the index is down by 0.47%, and the technical indicators offer a mixed picture of where it could be headed.
1. RSI Momentum:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NASDAQ currently stands at 55.48. This suggests that the index has room for further upward movement, but is hovering in a neutral range. The RSI hasn’t entered the overbought zone, indicating that while the index has potential for growth, it could face resistance as it approaches key levels.
2. Trend Channel and Support Levels:
The NASDAQ Composite has been trading within a rising trend channel since the fourth quarter of 2023. The index’s ability to maintain its position within this channel is crucial for its continued growth. The 16,000 pivot level serves as a significant support point. A breakdown below this level could catalyze a bearish move, leading to a potential reversal of the recent gains.
Investors and traders are keenly awaiting guidance from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose upcoming speech could provide critical insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Any hawkish comments or signs of hesitancy in cutting rates may weigh heavily on the NASDAQ, especially given its reliance on lower borrowing costs.
3. Sector Rotation and Divergence:
One notable observation is the sectoral shift from technology stocks into other parts of the market. On Monday, financial and energy stocks outperformed, with both sectors rising by over 1%. This divergence reflects the broader trend of investors reallocating capital in anticipation of lower rates. Financial stocks, in particular, have been beneficiaries of this rotation, as hedge funds made their largest purchases of financials since June 2023, according to Goldman Sachs.
Outlook and Conclusion
In summary, the NASDAQ Composite is at a crossroads, with fundamental and technical forces pulling in different directions. On the one hand, the prospect of significant interest rate cuts could revive enthusiasm for tech stocks, while on the other, the index’s technical indicators suggest caution, especially if it breaks below the critical 16,000 support level.
For investors, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will be pivotal. If the central bank delivers a larger-than-expected rate cut, the NASDAQ could rally, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. However, any disappointment from the Fed could trigger further sector rotation, pushing investors toward less volatile sectors like financials and energy.
As always, in periods of uncertainty, it’s essential to stay vigilant and monitor both market fundamentals and technical indicators to navigate the path ahead. The NASDAQ’s next move will depend not only on economic data and Fed policy but also on the evolving trends in AI and global markets.