A Groundbreaking Weekly Close: Is a Big Move Loading?
🔥 The market has spoken, and it’s speaking LOUD. 🔥
This past week’s historic close is nothing short of monumental. For the first time, the market confidently surged above the previous All-Time High (ATH) — breaking through with conviction backed by exceptional volume. But what does this mean for the days ahead? Let’s break it down.
A Look Back: What History Tells Us
📈 Reversal That Changed the Game:
Earlier this year, the market reversed from a minor dip at the ATH with a surge in liquidity. That move ignited a massive 10% rally. And now, we see the same conditions emerging:
Liquidity ✔️
Strong volume ✔️
Breakthrough resistance ✔️
🔎 The Election Week Trap:
Sometimes, the market plays tricks. The US Election Week candle gave us a massive move but was immediately retraced the following week. This teaches us an important lesson: ignore the noise and focus on what truly matters — consistent price action backed by volume.
Why This Weekly Close Stands Out
✅ Exceptional Volume: Unlike election-driven volatility, this close is supported by sustained buying pressure.
✅ Breaking Major Resistance: The market isn’t just flirting with the ATH; it’s clearing it decisively.
✅ Momentum Reset: We’re now undoing the noise from previous eventful candles and focusing on the real trajectory.
What’s Next: Is Another 10% Rally in the Cards?
The stars are aligning for a potential repeat of history. With liquidity unlocked and resistance broken, the market could be gearing up for an even bigger move in the coming days. This past week’s candle could be the foundation for a new bullish wave, signaling a continuation to higher highs.
🧠 Key Takeaways for Traders
💡 Ignore the distraction of single-event candles like the election weeks — focus on volume-backed closes.
💡 Watch for sustained momentum — this close is a signal, not just a moment.
💡 Be prepared for potential follow-through that could mirror the prior 10% move or even exceed it.
⚡ Conclusion: The Market Is Ready to Make a Move ⚡
This isn’t just a weekly close; it’s a statement. The market is poised, primed, and ready to go. Are you ready to ride the wave?
➡️ A major move is loading… and you don’t want to miss it.
🔔 Stay sharp, stay focused, and let the market show its hand!
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Unlocking the Myth of Price Action: A Strategic PerspectiveThe Market’s Telltale Signs:
History shows that when markets experience sharp moves—either a dramatic drop or an explosive rally—pullbacks often follow. These pullbacks are driven by strong follow-through candles that signal renewed interest and participation from market players. Such formations act as the market’s way of hinting at a potential reversal or retracement.
The Current Scenario:
Right now, the price action is falling short of these historical signals. The market has yet to produce the kind of decisive, bullish candle that would suggest a meaningful reversal. The recent candles lack strength, structure, and conviction, leaving the prevailing trend intact.
Why It Matters:
In trading, patience is a superpower. Jumping into the market without confirmation from strong signals can be costly. At this point, staying on the bearish side is the smarter move. Let the market speak—wait for that bold, unmistakable bullish candle to confirm the tide is turning before considering a shift in strategy.
On the Flip Side:
However, if the bulls do take charge, we could witness a substantial upside movement. A strong, decisive bullish move would signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a significant rally. This could present an excellent opportunity for those ready to ride the bullish wave when it materializes.
The Bottom Line:
Stay aligned with the bearish trend for now, but remain vigilant. A strong bullish candle could unlock a major upside, so keep an eye on the market for any signs of a shift. The key is to let the price action confirm the next move before committing to a new direction!
NASDAQ TODAYToday is a calm day for US100 until the 3:30 PM pull ;
today, it seems like it ll be going down after a lot of hesitations, a lot of reticence to get over 21K ;
we managed to get the descent the other day (orange lines), today seems like either a big pull out, going towards 22K, but pretty unlikely to happen, or a big drawdown like that, reinitializing RSI for the next rally.
Nas100 - 15 min ( Best Buy and Sell Scalping Break Out Area )⚡️ Nas100
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 20770 Area
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 20410 Area
⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis Not by Number ..
🔻 Announcement Coming After Successful Break
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 19 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None. Tomorrow is Nvidia Earnings release
Directional bias - BUY (read yesterday's post entitled "Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024" for more insight into today's directional bias and swing trade entry)
Yesterday I opened a swing trade at the B. hand icon.
My mental stop was placed at the thick pink line.
Wow....what a day, what a draw down!
But held throughout and I am now 1'300 pips in the profit with a big position and secured at entry i.e. trading risk free.
Here's the reasoning for holding and also where I would have entered today if I had not had a swing trade going:
Holding swing trade:
As is evident from the 1H chart, a huge red candle closed below my mental stop. In normal trading i.e. day trading I would have closed my trade.
But in this instance I entered a swing trade based on the 4H TF. On normal day trading days, I enter on much lower TF and judge how candles close against my mental SL on much lower TFs.
As a rule, if candles start closing below my mental stop, I would close.
But over the years I have also learnt that the time frame you enter on, is the TF you should judge if you want to close your trade. In other words, if I enter on a 4H TF, then in theory I should only close my trade if 4H candles start closing below my mental stop. This is very hard (especially because Nasdaq that can spike thousands of pips at a time). But over the years, as I have grown my account and gained experience, I have been able to hold fast on this observation.
And so, as can be seen on the 4H TF, a 4H candle did not close at my mental stop.
This draw down had me sweating bullets and if I had my position sizing wrong I could easily have bust my account on a 2'700 pip drawn down (esp because I trade with a 500 leverage). I was also nearly in panic mode because the news is full of stories regarding the Ukraine Russia War escalation. So I am pleased that I held my cool, stuck with my trade plan and didn't panic close my position at a massive loss.
Whether it was luck or truly my past "observation", I thank my lucky stars that price ultimately went my way.
Entry point for today:
I did not add another position today because my exposure was already at the max.
But if I hadn't had my swing trade going, I would have entered on the 1H TF at the smiley icon (because the move down was really strong, so I would have looked for confirmation on a higher TF)
Also the 1H DB formed on the strong Weekly support.
Now we need to see if price can break through the strong sell fib levels and I am hoping Nvidia earnings will help with that.
Hope you had a good trading day! Over and out!
P.S. Note how price exactly respected the market pattern profit target theory market at C. (i.e. that price will move the same distance as the height of the market pattern, once the market pattern in broken). Price formed a rising wedge on the 4H TF and then broke downwards and moved the exact distance down as the height of the market pattern.
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. On the W TF, it can be seen that price finally broke through a resistance level that held strong for 6 weeks (marked by numbers). After price broke through, it is now retesting this level to see if resistance is now turned to support. This zone also represents the W and D 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) Because the Day and the Week fib levels are the same, we have a kind of TF confluence, which makes this level very strong. As the overall trend of Nasdaq is bullish, I choose to see last week as a massive retracement but not an overall trend change for Nas.
Morning analysis:
At this level (the W level highlighted in yellow), price is seen to start reacting to this level. There are DB forming on the 15min TF and the 30min TF. This gives me confidence that buyers are stepping in at this zone. Also, on the 4H TF we have not seen price retesting any of the higher level TF's, so a bullish move is expected to at least retest this bearish move.
As the day progressed:
Entered a buy at the hand icon (A.) - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF after touching the W+D 0.618 fib level.
2. S&R - DB formed right at the strong Weekly S&R level marked in yellow on the W view
3. Trend - price has finally started making higher highs and higher lows (indicating that price is ready to start moving up) and a buy is in the overall direction of Nasdaq - the trend is your friend
4. Fib - W+D 0.618 fib level touched + DB formed at 1H 0.618 fib level
Mental SL placed below green highlight.
Price moved up 1'200 pips and I secured my position at entry. I wanted to hold for a larger move because ultimately a DB formed on the 1H TF and the neckline was broken with a huge momentum candle. But price came back down and took me out.
I re-entered at the hand icon B. for a more swing trade kind of entry, because we have a DB on the 1H and the 4H TF. Mental stop placed at the thick pink line, which is about half the height of the DB. But it's a risky entry because the stop is soooo far below where price currently is. So a SL hit woud mean a big loss.
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
US100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis - Where To Next?👀👉 The US100 has recently experienced a pullback, leaving traders wondering: what’s next? While the higher time frame trend remains bullish, last week’s deep retracement has carried into today. At this point, it’s a matter of waiting for the market to settle and observing how price action unfolds, particularly after the New York session. I’m leaning toward looking for a buy opportunity, but this depends on a bullish structural break—specifically, a break above the current previous high on the 4-hour timeframe. Selling isn’t part of my plan right now, as the chart and volume profile reveal strong support levels below, which are clearly highlighted in the analysis. 📊 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ Next weekPrice Running between Ascending channel and already
touches upper border and clear bos there
i expect price will fall down till bellow trend line
that is strong trend line in 4 Hour
However we have 2 scenarios. if price broken the below trend line
will fall to below imbalance around 19000 level. That means down border of channel
If price got bullish rejection near trend line price will rise around 2100 - 2200 areas.
waing to bullish or bearish confirmation and execute your trade. good luck
GBPUSD FALLINGStill going down after already a huge drawdown ;
the blue lines are the main recent interesting KL, reaching it one by one, slightly bouncing then still going down seems like the next move ;
but it s the same as fibonacci, it might bounce harder on one and even change the whole trend to a new uptrend.
CHANGE OF DIRECTION FOR EURUSDAt first we thought it would keep going up, but it broke an important line on Friday before closing, which tends to show it keeps the bearish position ;
not sure about that tbh, but it seems too early to call a bearish trend for this pair, even though it might happen at some point soon ;
the next KL, LL and key lines will tell us if we're right or no.
BTC LATEWe thought it would go back up right now, but it turns out it made an unexpected line cutting (white cut line) ;
it s going towards the next LL KL, hitting some key points then going back up pretty quick before wednesday ;
it is now a smooth drawdown pattern, where it falls smoothly and calmly before hitting one big red candle.
NASDAQ Strong Bullish Momentum ContinuesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a buying opportunity around 20200 zone, NASDAQ is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 20200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
QQQ - Breakout or Fakeout?Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.