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NASDAQ 100 CFD

NAS100 - MONDAY'S SMALL SHORT FOR BIG LONG! (TARGET 17265)As you might have noticed, the Nasdaq is on fire and I'm more of a reversal trader so times are harder. But, there is an old saying that states: "the trend is your ". I forgot the rest but I'll let you figure out the last word. So in homage of this old saying, we'll tighten our bullish running shoes and propose a setup that satisfies both camps. Here's what I see happening on Monday (29/01/2024): What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) We have our liquidity target level which gave place to the continuation of the rally. So far so good for bulls, price is going up and their net worths too. 2) Our first reversal structure, with a low taken out and the high intact. 3) This is our retracement signal, confirming the market structure shift to the downside. This is paired with the fact that price broke the hourly Tenkan and Kijun + the Tenkan and the Kijun crossed over + breaking the Kumo + breaking the latest low. Additionally, the 4H Kijun and Tenkan reside within the 1H Kumo so those too were broken (not shown on the chart to promote clarity). These are reliable reversal signals. I am not trying to be a contrarian against the general trend but, this is how we spot general highs and lows. The daily is simply bullish so it's harder to spot a minor intraday opportunity such as this one. 4) This rejection confirms our reversal idea, and strengthens the probability of sellside liquidity getting taken out. 5) This is our final target, ideally the 1 Hour FVG. Again, on Monday anything can happen of course but this seems the most likely. I want these lows taken out before anything and, therefore we can short in anticipation of these lows getting taken out! Most importantly, take some rest and have a great weekend! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
NAS100 Reversal Correction 31.01.2024NAS100 has experienced an unusual drop yesterday having a different path than the other U.S. Indices as specific stocks had plunged amid the quarterly earnings reports. This rapid drop and reversal from the upside creates an opportunity for retracement to occur. The arrow shows how the price could start a path upwards, with the price returning back to the MA. __________________________ Information Regarding Important News and Figures can be found here in our Economic Calendar: mau.bdswiss.com/economic-calenda... Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350).
BLACKBULL:NAS100Long
by Stuart_Cowell
NAS100 Will Go Up From Support! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 17460.9. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 17677.3 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by SignalProvider
1
A Traders’ Playbook – the week that has everythingWe move past a busy week in markets and onto an even busier one, littered with potential landmines for traders to navigate. One key theme which has legs this week are moves in Chinese markets – notably, China went after short sellers with several targeted measures. We also saw a 50bp cut to banks RRR amid reports of an RMB2t package for offshore SOE to buy Chinese equities – that said, with big inflows into mainland funds, the HK50 and CSI 300 managed an unimpressive 4.2% and 2% weekly gain respectively. Judging by price action in the HK50 market players seem unsure about building on the move from 15k, and Fridays inside bar needs to be rectified – I would look to trade a break of 16300 (longs) and 15809 (shorts) While hindsight is a wonderful thing, the equity index to be long on the week was the EU Stoxx 50, which is in beast mode (even when priced in USD). The ECB refraining from pushing back on market pricing has certainly helped, while EU earnings also ramp up. Looking ahead, Thursdays EU CPI could be very important for both the EUR and EU equity, where a weak core CPI print – below 3% - could open the door for the ECB to signal a big change from the collective at the 7 March ECB meeting, although we can gauge an immediate response to the CPI data from ECB members Lane and Centeno, who both speak after the CPI data. US data last week, for the most part, impressed and should result in the FOMC statement being little changed this week. Nuance and positioning will play a key role in the moves in rates, the USD, gold, and equity. FOMC aside, it’s a big week ahead State Side, with a raft of key labour market reads, growth data points, the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) as well as it being the marquee week of US earnings with Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon reporting. It’s not a shock that longs in NAS100 and US500 have had a collective rethink and thought twice about building on the move into 4900. That said, if we look at the volatility markets there has been no pickup in hedging activity with limited propensity to buy downside puts. In fact, all the talk has been that funds are selling index calls to collect premiums and enhance returns on their underlying equity positions. This is subsequently having a big effect in dampening volatility. Crude and Nat Gas are where the moves are taking place, and certainly, SpotCrude had a flyer gaining over 6% on the week, trading into the Nov range highs and taking out the 200-day MA. US data has been a factor, but geopolitics is also a growing issue, and we watch headlines roll in. The bulls seem to have control for now, so upside risks remain – a break higher could also become problematic for future headline inflation, although we’re not at levels too concerning yet. All in, we see a new week littered with key event risks – economic data flow, central bank meetings and corporate earnings. It pays to be aware of the calendar, whether one is day trading and navigating these potential vol events through the day. Or holding positions but not in front of the screens. Consider if the event holds the potential for outsized moves, where the skew of risk resides, and what the means for the stop placement and position sizing. It’s the week that has it all – good luck. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: • End-of-month portfolio flows – Investment bank flow models suggest USD selling to play out to rebalance portfolios, with some sizeable selling in Japanese equities to reweight. • Aus Q4 CPI (31 Jan – 11:30 AEDT) – Q4 CPI poses an obvious risk to AUD and AUS200 exposures. The market looks for headline Q4 CPI to print 0.8% QoQ / 4.3% YoY (from 5.4%), with the trimmed mean measure also expected to fall to 4.3% YoY. Importantly, the RBA had forecast 4.5% for Dec CPI (on both metrics), so the further below that the more dovish the reaction in the AUD. As it stands, Aussie interest rate futures see no chance at the Feb RBA meeting, with a 1-in-4 chance of a 25bp cut in the May meeting. Given such sanguine pricing, we’d need to see a 3-handle on CPI YoY to bring a cut onto the table near-term and promote a big move in the AUD. • China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 Jan – 12:30 AEDT) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 49.2 (from 49.0) and the services index at 50.6 (50.4) – after some big stimulus last week CN/HK equity index longs will be keenly hoping for the data flow to show signs of improvement, although it’s the property space that is of most interest. • FOMC meeting (1 Feb 06:00 AEDT) & Chair Powell presser (06:30 AEDT) – it will certainly be hard to match the strong dovish reaction in the Dec FOMC meeting and after the strong Q4 GDP print, and consumption the Fed will be in no mood to declare victory. With the Fed expected to lose its tightening bias, the FOMC statement should read neutral. There will also be a large focus on the timeline for tapering the pace of QT (or balance sheet reduction), notably with Jay Powell’s likely to be heavily probed on this in his press conference – all up, while positioning is always a factor, I see two-way risks for the USD and equity. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – the Riksbank will leave rates at 4% but should open the door to cuts, with the swaps market pricing the first cut in May. Preference for USDSEK upside, adding on a closing break of 10.5000. • BoE meeting (1 Feb – 23:00 AEDT) – the GBP has found support from resilient UK data flow, with GBPUSD tracking a clean 1.2800 – 1.2600 range. The market will be expecting the bank to retain a hawkish lean and will be looking for changes in the vote split to a 8-1 or even 9-0 vote to hold rates. With the market pricing the first 25bp cut at the May BoE meeting at 50%, and the first cut fully priced in June, I see a two-way risk to the GBP at this meeting. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • US nonfarm payrolls (3 Feb – 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is that we see 180k jobs created (the economist range of estimates is set between 285k to 120k), with the unemployment rate expected to tick higher to 3.8%. I think the USD reaction will be more closely linked to the outcome of the U/E rate than net job creation. • EU CPI (1 Feb) – The CPI print could be pivotal to the ECB and could set the stage for a more dovish narrative from the bank. The market sees headline CPI falling to 2.7% (from 2.9%) and core CPI to 3.2% (3.4%). Chief economist Lane speaks 90 minutes after, so we could get an immediate reaction to the data from one of the ECB’s most influential members. The EU CPI print poses big EUR risk given the implication for ECB rate expectations, so consider EUR exposures over the news. • US Treasury financing estimate (29 Jan) and Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA - 31 Jan) – the QRA was the trigger for lasting trending conditions in price in both August and November and the implications this time around could be significant. That said, I am leaning towards the idea that the market will not get a surprise this time around, but with T-bills still expected to play a big role in govt funding in the weeks ahead there will be further increased scrutiny on the level of RRP balances and ultimately the funding markets (SOFR-Fed funds). See our preview here - pepperstone.com US earnings in the week ahead – As it stands, we’ve seen 25% of S&P500 companies report, 78% have beaten expectations on EPS (by an average of 6%) and 53% have beaten on sales. Companies have reported 1.6% aggregate EPS decline, and 3.7% sales growth. In the week ahead we get earnings from just over 40% of the S&P500 market cap, including 4 of the illustrious MAG7 names – as a highlight I expect good interest in: Tuesday - UPS, Microsoft (implied move -/+ on the day of reporting 4.3%), Alphabet (-/+ 5%) Wednesday - Boeing (-/+ 3.8%), Mastercard (-/+ 2.9%), QUALCOMM (-/+ 5.6%) Thursday - Apple (-/+ 3.2%), Meta (-/+ 6.5%), Amazon (-/+ 6.2%) Friday - Chevron (-/+ 2.3%), and Exxon (-/+ 2.2%). Other US data points worth considering: US – Consumer confidence (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), JOLTS jobs openings (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), Employment Cost Index (1 Feb 01:00 AEDT), ISM manufacturing (2 Feb 02:00 AEDT). In LATAM FX: The BCCh (Chile) meet on Wednesday and are expected to ease by 100bp to 7.25%, although there is a chance they go 75bp - USDCLP is seeing positive momentum and I favour it higher near-term but have limited conviction. The Brazilian CB go on the same day and should cut the selic rate by 50bp to 11.25% Columbia also meet on Wednesday, and we see a 50bp cut to 12.50%.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
NAS100 | The continued rip and runNAS100 has been on a beautiful tear to the upside. The question is can it still continue? If so, the best price to continue buying above is 17,300.80. Why this price? This is where the buyers push price back up before continuing the increase of price up to 17,687.20. Price has now pulled back to provide a discount in price once again. For this discount to remain valid buying above 17,300.80 is sensible. What needs to be seen? The evidence buyers can come show themselves, basically, price action candlesticks. We can see price pushed off of structure(green line) before increasing. Now price is back at structure. Again, we will need to see if the buyers can push price back up. And again, price action is going to be the evidence or entering the trade upon open with the belief price can rise. As Van Tharp states in his book Trading Beyond The Matrix , " we don't trade the markets we trade our beliefs." My belief is price can rise if price doesn't strongly fall below the lower price of 17,300.80. If it does, this trade idea will be invalidated. Should you trade this? If you share the belief price will rise? Yes. If you do not believe price will continue to rise? no. Let's keep it that simple. Like and share this trade idea ❤️ Shaquan
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ShaquanLopez
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 26 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) I'm reading a trade phycology book called the "Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler. In it he explains that each trader has a C-game (where all your worst mistakes are made), a B-game (where you are a little bit profitable but are still making some mistakes) and an A-game (where you are really performing well). Today, I was making every single mistake in my C-game. Trading against the trend, cutting trades too soon, flip-flopping from a sell to a buy and chasing price. Don't know what the hell happened, that I suddenly made all these mistakes. But I am out for the day (at a loss, of course). Not trading when I am clearly in my C-game mentality! Disaster ;( But despite my horrible trading day....January has been my most profitable trading month ever. Bad days happen - one bad trading day does not make you a bad trader (don't let it get you down - just learn from it). Hope you are having a better day....good luck!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 25 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good. Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release. But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to. At time of analysis I noted the following: A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines). Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple). 1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?) Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.) A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines) The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down. I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news. Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated. Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A. Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up. On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up. I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings. Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks. What could I have done differently: Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position. I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength. I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C. One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit. Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 24 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Netflix earnings came in showing good forecasts Risk for the day was that there may be hesitancy for traders to step into the market, as we wait for Tesla to report. At time of analysis I noted the following: Temporary pink downtrend line had been broken and retested at A. (also retest of pivot). Candles showing strong bull presence in the market (green momentum candles on 1H and 4H candles are all green). Rising wedge formation noted and marked in green lines 1H 20 EMA is tracking the dark blue trend line almost perfectly If market retraces, I would enter a buy with my full position size. Watching price action, I entered a buy at C. (at 20% of my usual position size). Confirmations: Market Pattern – Rising wedge formation formed on the 1H TF. Usually this pattern breaks to the downside but can break either way. Market broke to the upside this time. News – Netflix earning release + forecast were really good This was an aggressive entry – lack of strong confirmations. I usually don’t like buying at the peak, hence my small position size. But market sentiment was extremely bullish. Market pushed up, broke through the top line of the Day ascending wedge (marked in light blue), retested at E. and took off from there. Ultimately market moved up 1800 pips from my position. Logically I would have liked to close half my position size at the peak and leave the rest running in case Tesla earnings came out well and market moved further up. However, candles did not give a clear reversal pattern on the lower TF and by the time it did, the monetary value was not significant enough for me to actually take profit. I decided that because it was such an aggressive entry, that I might as well be aggressive and keep the whole position open and see what Tesla earnings does. Unfortunately for me, market came crashing down and I was out at entry with ZERO pips for the day. What could I have done differently: At the time market reversed, I was no longer in front of my trading screens and was monitoring on my phone. My ability to judge and “feel” a shift in sentiment from the price action is significantly reduced. I think that if I was in front of my screens I would have taken partial profits, but we can’t be in front of the screens 24/7. Ultimately, I will never regret a situation where I decide to be aggressive and then am out at entry. If Telsa had come out differently I would have been smiling all the way to the bank, so, happy to have taken that “go big or go home” risk. Hope you made some good bucks out of this move! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
The risk manager – putting the US Treasury’s QRA on the radar While the US500 and NAS100 juggernaut rolls on and the VIX index remains under 13%, we ask what could derail this risk rally. One event which has shown form through 2023 as a market mover is the US Treasury’s QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement). For background the ‘QRA’ – or Quarterly Refinancing Announcement – is where the US Treasury Department announce and quantify its financing needs for the quarter ahead, as well as the composition and breakdown of T-bill and bond issuance. In effect, the QRA could be a complete non-event for markets, or conversely result in a repeat of the powerful moves that we saw in both episodes in August and November - where the US Treasury’s (UST) QRA marked major turning points and trending conditions across bond, equity, and FX markets. In the art of risk management, the QRA is an event worth monitoring. Dates for the risk diary On 29 January the UST announce its financing estimates for the period ahead. 2 days later (31 Jan) we get the breakdown of issuance and USD amount per maturity that they plan to target – this is key. Coincidentally, just to spice things up, the breakdown of the USTs bond issuance falls on the same day as the FOMC meeting. The August 2023 QRA case study In August 2023 the US Treasury detailed they would finance its ballooning fiscal deficit by issuing a greater amount of longer-term US Treasuries than what was expected. With the Fed no longer a buyer of US Treasuries and Japan and China reducing its UST holdings, the highly price-sensitive private sector was asked to take down the increased bond supply. The result was a sharp sell-off in the US 10yr Treasury, with yields rising from 4% to 5%. As US bond yields soared the S&P500 fell from 4600 to 4100, while the USD index (DXY) rallied by over 5%. The November 2023 QRA case study Turn to the following QRA in November 2023 and the US Treasury was keen to curb the sell-off in Treasuries, and a rising interest expense bill - subsequently announcing they would finance its fiscal shortfall away from longer-term bonds and towards US T-bills (debt instruments with maturities of less than 12 months). While we can also attribute some of the move in markets to the Fed ‘pivot’ and rising expectations of a rate-cutting cycle, amid a soft landing – the move towards ultra short-term T-bill issuance saw the US 10yr yield trend to 3.78%, largely driven by term premium falling from +40bp to -45bp. Subsequently, the DXY fell 6% and the S&P500 rallied 16%. Watch RRP balances The RRP facility is an important monetary policy tool for the Fed, as it sets a floor on short-term interest rates (repo, money markets). With money market funds holding a preference to buy US T-bills at govt auctions, over investing in the RRP facility, we’ve seen a consistent drawdown in the level of the RRP facility to $639.56b (search this on TradingView under code – RRPONTSYD). There are growing concerns that should RRP balances fall below $200b it may start to cause real stress in market funding rates, which as we saw in 2019 would have significantly negative implications for broad market sentiment. Many consider SOFR (Secured Overnight Finance rate) to be the most important market rate of all, as it represents the cost of short-term financing. If SOFR rates move higher than the level the Fed pays banks to park their excess reserves on their balance sheet (currently 5.4%) – a tool used to put a ceiling on short-term rates - it would show the Fed’s monetary policy levers are no longer functioning efficiently, and that the funding channels are broken. Traders can monitor this on TradingView by using the code FRED:SOFR-FRED:IORB – should this push above 0bp and certainly above 10bp it will get great attention. Break it down So, the concern is if the UST keep its current funding needs to be skewed towards T-bills, then RRP balances will likely fall to worrying levels, funding costs could blow out and equities will take a bath with the USD rallying on safe-haven flows. Conversely, if the US Treasury move to skew its borrowing needs towards long-term Treasury issuance, then term premium would rise and US 10yr Treasury yields would move higher, again taking the USD higher and equity lower – a re-run of the bearish moves we saw between August and October. This is a very simplistic breakdown of what is a highly technical concept, but the mix of debt funding could cause some short-term gyrations and it potential result in an earlier end to QT. Given the US deficit is a growing market and political issue, how it’s funded matters for markets - One for the radar.
FRED:SOFR
by Pepperstone
NAS100 - MY DAILY AND INTRADAY ANALYSES (TARGET 17300)Yes this is contrarian, markets are booming but it's quite overextended and going long at a top is the most monkey trader thing to do. I'll do a reverse analysis where I start with the intraday and follow up with the daily. So here's my take on things: What's on the intraday chart? (Follow the steps) 1) A 4 hour bearish FVG. This will serve as my entry zone. 2) Our 'support line'. You'll notice price keeps on making lower lows. 3) Our liquidity target. This is the price magnet. We know for certain (discretionary) that price will take this out. 4) The entry point. Again, do your own research. Do not follow the analysis from some random stranger on the internet and go all in (you degenerate). 5) The intraday target. The order of things matter. If we hit this before hitting the short entry then you might wanna reverse the idea but I do not like the idea of longing in an overextended market! What's on the daily chart? (Follow the steps) 1) The previous all time high that was violently broken. 2) Our swing extension target area. This is great to know where to take partials or close entire positions in new price territories. Of course price can always go further towards 2 or 2.618 or anything else (it's up to you where you wanna take partials). 3) The bearish candle pattern: kind-of a mix between a gravestone, a spinning top, a shooting star and whatever other label I can muster to justify my bias lol. To me this is the main driver of the bearish bias! 4) Maximum target. I do not see price going any lower and the intraday target is more sane so I don't really expect price to go that low either. 5) The continuation of the rally. People love buying. I do not see that changing anytime soon. As always, have a lovely day and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: I still had some buy positions running from yesterday. Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line. Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF. When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss. In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow. Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend. My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was. I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence: Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend. S&R: 4H EMA is in this region Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2. What could I have done differently: Glad I stayed out today. Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips! Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence). TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 22 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Early morning bulls had push up even further. Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is. In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down. So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further. Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high. As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down. The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong. I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down S&R – Support zone holding strong Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss. I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there. I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower. So now I had 10% of my usual position open. I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry. My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone). When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green. I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT. This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I). But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H. As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement. So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open. I entered as planned another small buy at E. But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow. So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see. But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level. Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow? It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated. What could I have done differently: Not entered at D. But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend. Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries. At least I kept it small! Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84