NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ under the pressure of a strong DollarHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 18130 zone, NASDAQ is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 18130 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NAS100 Will Go Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 18199.94.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 17820.21 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Nasdaq H4 | Potential bullish breakoutNasdaq (NAS100) is showing a strong bullish momentum and could make a continuation towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 18,245.20
Why we like it:
There is a strong bullish momentum (wait for 1-hour candle to close above 18,245.20 for breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: 18,043.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take Profit: 18,760.85
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level
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Nasdaq February Monthly Review – Contin.Refer to the previous post regarding Feb Monthly Analysis for part 1 of this post.
So as promised, here is the detailed analysis of each of the Feb month’s entries, marked with number’s on the chart:
Trade 1:
Entry Point: 17254
Time of entry (GMT): +-8h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 1H TF with neckline broken. Also on the 31 Jan, price had travelled down more than the distance equal to the height of the day DT that had formed (marked in blue lines). From profit target (end point of the blue vertical line), probability is high that market will move back to retest the neckline of the market pattern. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend
Fib: The Day candle on 31 January had closed with a spike down to the Day 0,50 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.). Day fib levels are strong and a DB forming in the area of the D 0,50 fib level is a strong entry signal
Candlesticks: 31 Jan Day candle closed with a longish spike down to the D 0,50 fib + D EMA
S&R: Strong dynamic support provided by the D EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect (buy the dip)
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e.. At 17175,9
Draw Down pips: 754 pips
TP points: TP1 = 17963 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18348,8 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Both TPs hit
Close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: 10’943
Comments: Successful trade
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Trade 2:
Entry Point: 17607
Time of entry (GMT): 21h00
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: Db formed on the 15min TF, with strong momentum candle breaking the neckline.
Fib: DB formed by the Day 0,618 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) 0,618 fib levels are very strong especially on the D TF
Candlesticks: On the 15min TF, there is a long wick hammer candle right by the D 0,618 fib level + strong momentum green candles on the 15min TF to break the neckline of the DB.
S&R: DB formed by a strong Day S&R zone + D EMA right by this zone providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17531
Draw Down pips: 137 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18293,2 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18617 (fib level -0,618)
(Fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.)
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: zero
Comments: This trade did not work out - ultimately price came down and took the trade out at entry - Market moved up 3504 pips from entry
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Trade 3:
Entry Point: 17364
Time of entry (GMT): 20h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: A huge DT formed on the D TF with a break of the neckline (neckline and profit target (ie same distance as height of market pattern) marked in orange lines). Price travelled the full distance of the profit target. End of profit target (end of the orange vertical line coincides perfectly with Week 0,382 fib level). Market has a high probability of retesting the neckline of the market pattern after reaching the profit target. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend. DB formed on the 15min TF at this level with a break of the neckline.
Fib: 15min DB formed right at the W 0,382 fib level
Candlesticks: None
S&R: Strong Day support level + 4H 200 EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB ie. At 17333
Draw Down pips: zero
TP points: TP1 = 18542 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 19189 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at E. to swing high at D.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: still in progress
Comments: Trade still in progress - market has moved 10'923 pips from entry
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Trade 4:
Entry Point: 17834,6
Time of entry (GMT): 13h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 30min TF right at the W 0,382 fib level + D 0,382 fib level. Enter at break of the neckline.
Fib: Area of confluence because Week and Day 0,382 fib levels coincide
Candlesticks: Long wick candle close on 30min TF piercing both the Fib levels but closing above
S&R: 4H support level + D EMA providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17825
Draw Down pips: 130 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18307,5 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18581 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at 3. to swing high at F.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: TP1 hit + TP2 in progress
Comments: Tp1 hit at 4748 pips above entry
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If you had taken these trades, you would have closed out on 15'691 pips of profit.
Always easier to pinpoint entries in hindsight - but the point of this exercise is to understand these entries and understand why you didn’t take them. This will connect the dots in your brain and then in future, you have a higher chance of spotting these high-quality entries and actually taking them.
Looking at the chart above, one can clearly see the trending market i.e. the market runs and pulls back…runs and pulls back. So you want to get in on the trend at the pull back (at retracement levels).
These are not the only high-quality entries - there were some good sells with the break of the DT necklines (marked in black lines).
But these are sells in a bullish market, so your TP's will never run as far as buys in a bullish market.
A note about stop losses on Nasdaq – my advice is not to set actual stop losses on MT4 or MT5 for your trades because Nasdaq is so volatile that it can often spike you out. Unfortunately, you need to use mental stops and use judgement with stop losses and see how candles CLOSE, not how candles spike.
Once price has moved a significant distance away from your position, you can secure at entry and trade risk free.
Screen time with this index will help you get the "feel" of this
I learnt from this analysis and hope you did too 😊
All the best for March month trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Short Idea on the DOW or US30I anticipate further downward pressure on prices, potentially breaking through previous lows. Please note that the chart provided is not intended as financial advice, but rather reflects my personal analysis and expectations. Following the recent CPI news, there was a deceptive upward movement, which I interpret as an opportunity for selling. With buying volume seemingly diminishing, I see potential opportunities for short positions. Wishing you the best in your trading endeavors.
Nasdaq Prepares for Data Impact Amidst Rate Cut SpeculationsAs investors gear up for this week's consumer and producer price data, Nasdaq ended Monday's session with slight declines, fueling anticipation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate adjustments in the upcoming months.
Technically, Nasdaq exhibited a double top formation around the 18400 level, accompanied by RSI indicator divergence. Analysts are eyeing a potential breakdown of the neckline around 17800, with targets set at 17700 and below.
Expectations are high for U.S. consumer price data for February, projecting a monthly increase of 0.4% and a 3.1% rise on an annual basis. The release of this data is poised to significantly impact the markets and potentially confirm the outlined technical analysis.
Last month, the stock market's rally witnessed a slowdown as robust economic indicators emerged, prompting traders to delay their expectations for the first Fed rate cut from March to June.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 11 Feb 2024 I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
During analysis noted the following:
Large DT formed on the 4H (marked with black lines)
Sellers fib (drawn from swing high at D. to swing low at E.) indcated that price retraced to Sellers 0,382 fib level + pivot (at C.) and price now moving down
Price consolidating above a very strong D support level (marked in grey zone highlight), with D EMA in the area - would need strong bearish push to break this support zone
2 x long wick candles on 4H TF touching this support zone, indicating that there is buying power at this zone.
Would like to see a nice DB with neckline break before entering a buy
Entered a buy at A. - Confirmations:
Market Patterns: Break of the neckline of a DB formed on the 1H TF
S&R / EMA: DB formed at strong Day support zone with D EMA in the area, providing dynamic support
Fib: DB formed just above the W 0,382 fib level
Trend: Entering a buy means trading in the same direction as the overall bullish trend - The trend is your friend
Candlesticks: 2 x 4H long wick candles rejecting the strong Day support zone
Mental stop place halfway down the height of the market pattern.
Market moved down with momentum and I closed this position at stop loss
Re-entered a buy at B. based on similar confirmations.
The two long wick candles on the 1H TF (one in red and one just at B.) indicated to me that bulls were stepping in at the D support zone.
Ultimately, market came down again and I closed this position also in a loss.
Total pips loss for the day was 1900, because in the second entry I wanted to make sure that bulls would not step in again.
After this loss, I decided to stay out for the rest of the day!
What could I have done differently?
I think that seeing that market retraced to seller's 0,382 fib + moving down, should have been a strong indication to me that a sell was in play, possible till Seller’s TP1.
I should have waited for the extra confirmation of a neckline re-test before entering.
Hope you had a better day than me!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq February Monthly ReviewNasdaq - Feb Month Analysis
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post February review and analysis in case it can help you!
Looking back at February, I want to review if I took the best trades for the month.
The Day TF provides me with the strongest confirmations and the most profitable trades.
This timeframe provides me with my bread and butter each month, so I need to make sure that I am taking these trades and getting the most out of them.
Have a look at what I believe where the best trades for February and see how many you took. If you didn’t take a trade, try to understand why you missed it.
This way you will increase your chances of getting into these trades in the future.
For Feb, there were 4 trades to be taken - trades marked in numbers on the chart.
Of course, there were many other profitable trades in Feb....but these are my "bread and butter" trades.
Tomorrow I will share a very detailed analysis on entry points + confirmations + SL + TP expectations.
See if you can come to your own conclusion on these 4 trades and then tomorrow we compare notes :)
APPL INCApple Share Pullback Sparks Renewed Optimism for Future Gains
Description:
In the dynamic realm of financial markets, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has recently experienced a share price pullback, igniting both caution and excitement among investors. The recent downturn saw the stock price temporarily declining, triggering a wave of stop-loss orders. However, astute market observers are now contemplating a potential reversal in this trend, as historical patterns and fundamental indicators suggest the possibility of an upward trajectory in the near future.
The Apple share pullback, though unsettling for some, is a common occurrence in the ever-evolving landscape of stock trading. Markets are often subject to fluctuations driven by a multitude of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and investor sentiment. Such periodic declines can be interpreted as opportunities for shrewd investors who understand the company's underlying strengths and potential for growth.
As stop-loss orders were triggered during the recent pullback, some market participants may have been compelled to sell their Apple shares to limit potential losses. This mass selling could have contributed to the temporary decline in the stock price. However, seasoned investors are aware that market sentiment can sometimes overshadow a company's intrinsic value. Apple's robust product ecosystem, consistent innovation, and global brand recognition are formidable assets that have historically propelled its stock price to new heights.
Investor optimism is buoyed by historical precedence, as Apple has demonstrated resilience and the ability to rebound from similar setbacks in the past. Notably, the company has exhibited a history of recovering from pullbacks and establishing renewed momentum in its stock price. This pattern underscores the potential for a similar resurgence in the wake of the recent downturn.
Furthermore, fundamental indicators continue to paint a positive picture for Apple's future prospects. The company's strong financials, consistent revenue growth, and ongoing expansion into emerging markets contribute to a favorable outlook. As Apple continues to innovate across its diverse product portfolio, including smartphones, wearables, and services, the potential for increased revenue streams and sustained market dominance remains compelling.
In conclusion, while the recent Apple share pullback may have triggered stop-loss orders and temporarily dampened investor sentiment, it also presents an intriguing opportunity for those who recognize the company's underlying strengths. Historical patterns of recovery, coupled with robust fundamental indicators, suggest that Apple's stock price may be poised for an upward movement in the near future. As always, investors should exercise diligence, conduct thorough research, and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions