US NAS 100
Nasdaq -> Preparing The Bearish WaveHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 just retested and already started to reject the major previous weekly structure zone at the psychological $15.000 level.
You can also see that Nas100 retested the resistance of the very bullish rising channel, the next support would be the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level at the $14.000 zone so I am just waiting for more bearish pressure and then I do expect more upside potential.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Nas100 finally broke structure towards the downside with Monday's candle so this is a sign that Nas100 is actually slowing down - I do expect another push lower to retest daily support at the $14.300 level and then I do expect a first bullish rejection.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AI boost US mega caps - Nasdaq, Russell 2000 Left in the ColdTech Surge: AI Stocks in the Limelight
The performance of US stocks in the AI sector has been nothing short of remarkable, with over $3 trillion added to its market cap since the final quarter of 2022. The upward trend suggests further potential growth despite a broadly stable or mildly declining US stock market outside the US Megatech sector. The enduring climb of these stocks underscores the market's conviction in AI as a lasting, transformative force rather than a transient phenomenon. The US tech landscape had undergone a significant shift from a bleak outlook six to twelve months ago when technology was deemed insignificant, as currently, AI dominates the scene.
The Tech Surge vs. Small Businesses: The Gap Widens
The current market showcases a divide between big tech and smaller enterprises, with capital flows favoring the former. Coupled with potential deflation, this rift could intensify the struggles of smaller businesses. The thriving AI sector doesn't necessarily imply a positive outlook for smaller companies unrelated to AI in the upcoming 6-12 months. Acknowledging AI's transformative potential across industries like robotics, 3D printing, and crypto is vital. Even though a short-term crisis and job loss are on the horizon, the looming recession could present opportunities for buying cheap assets. In this unique period, reminiscent more of the 1940s and 1990s than the 2000s or the 1970s, a broader perspective, adaptability, and a positive mindset are necessary.
Price action: Is the top near?
Based on the Nasdaq 100 vs. Russell 2000 ratio, it's doubtful that the top is in. As you can see on the main chart, it's possible that a short-term top could be in, as NDX just filled a gap while sweeping several highs in the 14200-14300 area. However, this isn't the 2000s; this tech is more transformative. The world is ready to adopt it, and that's why ChatGPT was the fastest-adopted technology ever. Now the top 10 us tech companies have the best workforce, hardware, data, and customer base for AI; that's why they are leading the way, and they are unlikely to go down any time soon. That's confirmed by the ratio between NDX and RUT, which seems to have formed a massive cup and handle pattern that's about to break out. Maybe the current rally slows down a bit, but it's not impossible to see it accelerate rather than decelerate.
The S&P 500 seems to be at least 1% higher until it hits the next resistance, but my key target has been 4350 for a long time.
Once it hits it, a more substantial correction could come, even though I think it would take the SPX to 4000 at best. As for Russell 2000 looks very weak, and I think it will sweep its double bottom and fill the critical gap lower.
Sentiment remains bearish
For many months, on Tradingview and Twitter, I've been talking about how bearish people are, how inflation is coming down, liquidity is trending higher, and so on... yet nobody wants to hear about it. Everyone wants to talk about the ongoing or upcoming recession, and they consider AI a fad. Even after this move higher, sentiment hasn't changed, and it's getting more bearish, with people trying to short the rally, as they are angry for missing the boat. We can see that in CoT data, we can see on Twitter polls, and I can see it based on what people say on social media.
Potential strategies
In my opinion, it is either best to ride the trend with a small position and a wide-stop loss or wait for the market to hit key resistance, and either potentially short there if sentiment flips bullish or wait for the pullback and then go long.
Although the long Nasdaq short Russell trade could have some juice left in the short term (very bullish long term), I wouldn't rush to put that trade on, as the Russell could play catch up (in the short term), as we see traders/investors diversify as they take profits from their tech stocks. These stocks are cheap and seem more 'hated' than those US mega caps.
Higher interest rates and shrinking liquidity significantly affect small caps, and their situation could deteriorate. It's clear we are either in a recession or about to enter one, and these stocks have the most to lose. Therefore, once these stocks rally, especially if they outperform NDX, consider entering a long Nasdaq - short Russell trade. This trade might not work only if many large countries start banning those companies and their products or if the US starts attacking them for being too large. Until then, the ratio has higher to go.
Global DOW, SPY, NAS Support CorrelationThe 24 hour US stock indices have a solid correlation and showing you where buy support is.
The top chart is the US30USD.
The middle is the SPX500USD.
The bottom is the NAS100USD.
Since these charts trade 24 hours a day 5 days a week there never is a gap to deal with messing your oscillators.
There is a term I like to use called "No Man's Land". It includes all areas of a Moving Average Oscillator that don't connect to some form of support trend line or resistance trend line.
Don't trade in those areas. Look for support and resistance and set alerts so you can trade at those key points. We are hunters not killers. Hunters still fail, but hunting at key points allows you to set tight stop loss and move on to the next hunt. If you get stuck in "No Man's Land" then you have to decide to wait and hope support or resistance gets tested and works in your favor. That is not fun to feel and makes you emotional. Things can always reverse due to unexpected fundamentals. If that happens, be patient and start hunting the possible next support trend line or resistance trend line. And slowing down your lookbacks is vital to learning the bigger picture of things. Just because the preset value for RSI is 14 lookback. Doesn't mean you can't use other numbers. Fib numbers open up doors you've never seen. Good luck hunting
NAS100 Resistance ConfirmationPrice confirmed our resistance zone and formed double top as a reaction. Price then broke the neckline and also bullish trendline. We can see retest of a neckline and bearish continuation. Currently, price is testing previous high and I advise you to wait for a reaction.
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(DXY chart)
The question is whether it can drop below 102.034.
This is because if DXY moves sideways below 102.034, the investment market is expected to be active.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The 4419.8 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if it finds support around 4419.8, it is expected to renew the new high (ATH).
However, if resistance is found around 4419.8, a decline near the HA-Low indicator on the 1M chart is likely.
Therefore, if it falls, it is expected that a new HA-Low indicator on the 1M chart will be created.
Looking more closely,
1st: 4255.2-4310.8
2nd : 4116.0-4189.0
You need to make sure that it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st and 2nd above.
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(NAS100USD chart)
Like the SPX500USD chart, it is located near 15090.3, the point of the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, after the volatility period around June 28th, it is necessary to confirm that it can maintain above 15090.3.
If not,
1st: 14328.9-14710.6
2nd : 13231.6-13480.9
Tertiary: 12716.0-12896.2
You need to make sure it is supported around the 1st-3rd order above.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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NASTY100Pure Technical
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🧅Disclaimer :There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. This is Not Financial Advice
🧅JUST AN OPINION OF THE ONION.🧅
US100 Index (NASDAQ): Bearish Move From Key Level
NASDAQ Index is retracing from a key daily resistance.
After the test of structure, the price broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern on 4H.
It may trigger a further decline.
Goals: 14900 / 14780
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Nasdaq -> When Does It StopHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that the Nasdaq is currently retesting important previous weekly structure at the psychological $15.000 level which is now turned resistance.
You can also see that over the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq created a rally of about 30% towards the upside, breaking a lot of resistance towards the upside but now we are a little bit overextended so I am simply waiting for a rejecion away from the resistance area.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still bullish overall, there is no sign of the Nasdaq slowing down so I am still waiting for some bearish selling pressure before I then do expect also a daily retracement after this agressive pump recently.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NAS100USD Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear subscribers ,
Please, find my technical outlook for NAS100USD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 15186.2
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 15002.8
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NAS100USD: Bulls Will Push:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the NAS100USD pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
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NAS100USD My Opinion! SELL!
My dear followers ,
NAS100USD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 15006.2
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 14701.0
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NAS100USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 14954.2.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 14597.8 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Nasdaq levels to watch & potential move. US100 📈Hello guys, Everything is marked on the chart for you like always. Monitor the price's action in the circles to enter your position.
Good luck.
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Write your comment and opinion below for me
The beginning of a week in which new changes can occurHello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a good day.
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(DXY chart)
An important trend on the DXY chart is expected to start with a breakout from the 102.034-105.873 zone.
Therefore, it is necessary to check in which direction out of the 102.034-105.873 range.
In order for the investment market to be active, I think it should show a sideways trend by falling below 102.034.
Therefore, in order for the coin market to continue its upward trend, I think it needs to show a decline below 102.034.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The 4255.2-4310.8 section is an important support and resistance section.
Therefore, if it rises above this range and shows support, it is likely to surge around 4419.8.
The 4419.8 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart and corresponds to an important support and resistance section from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is the time to split and sell.
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(NAS100USD chart)
The 14710.6-15090.3 section is an important support and resistance zone on the 1M chart.
Therefore, it is the time to split and sell.
If it is supported and rises in the 14710.6-15090.3 section, it is expected to surge around 15978.3.
If the 14710.6-15090.3 section is unsupported and falling, you should check to see if it is supported around 12896.2-13418.8.
Around June 12th is a period of volatility.
Therefore, it is necessary to keep a close eye on the movement until June 13th.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 12NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 12
Significant Weakness observed on daily bar (Friday 09 June) as market is marked up on ultra low volume S>D bar.
If mark ups on low volume continues, tighten stops and don't chase longs. Prepare to look out for short opportunity.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Market continues to be marked up on low volume narrow spread up bars = tighten stops on longs / wait
2) When additional weakness emerges = Short on test and rejection of recent high / lower high
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15269 14575
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: 09 June ultra low volume S>D up bar
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NAS100USD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers ,
This is my opinion on the NAS100USD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 14549.5
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Goal - 14306.8
Safe Stop Loss - 14667.7
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NAS100USD Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 14550.4.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 14354.5 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!