2025.05.16 nasdaq analysis
This is the briefing result for Nasdaq as of yesterday.
The briefing began during the yellow box phase.
At that time, I clearly mentioned that the market had entered a short-term correction phase and emphasized the importance of the 21187 support level marked by the red box.
As seen in the chart, the 21187 level was not broken to the downside and instead held as support, followed by a rebound.
This reaffirms the significance of the 21187 level.
Afterward, the trend continued upward.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, there have been consistent lower wicks breaking below support,
which decreases the reliability of a short opportunity simply from a trendline break.
At this point, the trust in a sell-off purely based on trendline breakdown is weakening.
This chart outlines a short-term sell strategy.
As previously mentioned, while the short-term uptrend line has become less reliable,
if we see a break of the trendline and a drop below 21376,
we could expect a pullback toward the blue box area around 21320~21300.
Thus, a short-term short strategy may be valid in this scenario.
From a daily chart perspective, Nasdaq closed with a green candle again,
but the shape of the candle resembles a doji with similar upper and lower wicks.
What we need to focus on here is that Nasdaq has re-entered a high-volume price area (supply zone),
but since no clear direction has formed, many positions seem to be closed off whenever the price pushes higher.
On the downside, since the 21187 support level has held,
this remains the most critical level.
If 21187 is broken downward, it could mark the beginning of a daily-level correction phase.
Conclusion:
No clear direction yet.
While the direction was upward until yesterday, the doji close suggests caution.
For further bullish movement, a confirmed close above the current supply zone is essential.
If the market corrects downward, watch for a break below 21187.
The current price action is forming a channel pattern with higher lows and higher highs.
If traded correctly within this range, good opportunities may arise.
