Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher within its range-bound market. On the daily chart, it faced resistance near the gap created on January 27. Even if the index continues to rise, it is likely to encounter strong resistance near the January 24 closing price of 21,911. Keep in mind the principle that gaps tend to get filled and that they often act as strong support or resistance levels once filled.
Since the MACD is still maintaining a buy signal on the daily chart, it is advantageous to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. The recent move appears to be driven by dollar weakness, and similar to gold's strong rally yesterday, Nasdaq could also experience an additional upward rally. Therefore, short positions should be taken at the highest possible levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the zero line and is now pulling the signal line upward as well. If the index continues to rise and fills the gap, both the MACD and signal line will be above the zero line, and after consolidating at the gap resistance level, the next directional movement will likely be determined. It is best to focus on buying on dips while setting strict stop-loss levels for any short positions above the gap. Proper risk management is key.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed nearly flat but showed a meaningful breakout from the downward channel on the shorter time frames. It also created a gap-up on the daily chart and broke above the 5-day moving average. Previously, oil had been declining due to Trump's announcement regarding increased oil drilling, but this news is largely priced in now, making a technical rebound possible.
The key level to watch on the upside is $74.50, while buying opportunities exist below $73, with a stop-loss at $72.
On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence has formed at the bottom, leading to another buy signal. Since the price appears to be building a base, additional buying momentum could emerge. While the market is still range-bound, a buy-on-dip strategy remains favorable for now.
Gold
Gold surged to new all-time highs and closed with strong gains. The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s tariff imposition, boosting gold prices significantly. As mentioned yesterday, the MACD turned upward again, leading to another sharp rally on the daily chart.
Since gold strongly broke out of its previous range with a large bullish candlestick, today is a buy-on-dip day, particularly near the 3-day moving average. If the price retraces in the pre-market session, it could dip toward the 3-day moving average, so traders should be mindful of this possibility. However, if gold maintains its strength and closes with another bullish candlestick, the 3-day moving average will move higher, reinforcing the uptrend.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have diverged significantly, reflecting the strong uptrend. Buying on dips remains effective, while selling should be avoided since RSI indicates overbought conditions. As gold's volatility is increasing, traders should consider adjusting contract sizes, using micro contracts, or lowering leverage to allow for wider stop-loss levels and better trade management.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21680 / 21630 / 21580 / 21530 / 21465
-Sell Levels: 21770 / 21845 / 21890 / 22010 / 22055
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.40
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.10 / 74.50 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2845 / 2840 / 2831 / 2824
-Sell Levels: 2860 / 2866 / 2870
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Nasdaq
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 21780
bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25
📈 21748 & 21885.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21807-21917, 22027-22137)
📉 21473.50 & 21336.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21477-21367, 21257-21147)
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
US30 - Make or Break zone!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 US30 is currently retesting its all-time high at $45,000.
🏹For US30 to enter the price discovery phase and reach new ATHs, an 4H candle close above $45,000 is required.
📉On the other hand, if the last major low marked in red is broken downward, a deep correction towards the orange support would in play.
For now, we wait! ⏱️
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. This helps me cover the cost of providing regular insights.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support.
Gold
Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50
-Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768
-Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Nasdaq 100 Remains Neutral After the Fed's DecisionThe NAS100 initially dropped nearly 0.6% as the Federal Reserve's official decision was announced. However, so far, the event has not been decisive on the daily chart to establish a clear direction. The central bank chose to keep interest rates at 4.5% , as expected, and in its official statement, it acknowledged that inflation remains somewhat elevated and is still far from the 2% target. As long as this rate pause outlook continues, a sustained high level of 4.5% could continue to hinder overall economic activity and may become a key factor in the bearish bias that emerged in December.
Short-Term Sideways Channel:
At the moment, the market remains within a well-defined sideways range, with a ceiling at 22,000 points and a floor at 21,000 points. The price continues to fluctuate within this range, reflecting a clear lack of trend in recent movements. For now, this range stands as the most significant technical formation, potentially serving as a precursor to a much larger trending move.
Neutrality in Indicators:
The RSI line remains near the neutral 50 level , indicating that there is currently a perfect balance between buying and selling forces in the market.
The MACD histogram closely resembles the RSI, oscillating near the 0-neutral line , which suggests that the moving averages do not show a clear short-term trend bias.
The neutral stance of both indicators suggests that the Nasdaq may continue moving sideways for now, aligning with the current range-bound market behavior.
Key Levels:
22K – The most important resistance, aligning with the top of the sideways channel. A breakout above this level could be decisive, signaling new all-time highs and reviving the long-term bullish trend.
21K – A crucial short-term support level, coinciding with the 100-period moving average. Price action near this level could intensify selling pressure, potentially leading to more significant bearish moves.
20K – The ultimate support level currently holding the structure. A drop to this level could tilt the balance towards the formation of a fresh downtrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25
📈 21910 (NEXT ZONES: 21840-21797, 22052-22011, 22265-22224)
📉 21320 (NEXT ZONES: 21413-21373, 21200-21160, 20987-20947)
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FROM 930 OPEN, FIND THE HIGH OR LOW AND PROFIT OFF $200 DIFFERENCE FOR INCOME)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
The West Innovates, but China COPY/PASTES Better...From Instagram/Youtube to Tik-Tok
From OpenAI (closed AI) to China Free AI ...
''🇨🇳📋 China Doesn't Just Copy, They Paste Better! 🚀🤖''
What Just Happened?
The DeepSeek AI shockwave just sent the US stock market into panic mode – wiping out hundreds of billions in value.
Here’s the breakdown:
DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, built a ChatGPT rival using a fraction of the resources.
They optimized their software rather than relying on NVIDIA’s expensive GPUs.
NVIDIA lost $500B in market cap, as investors realized brute-force AI computing might not be the future.
The US market tanked as the news spread – another case of China disrupting American tech.
This isn't the first time we’ve seen this play out…
China’s Playbook: Innovation Through “Pasting”
We’ve seen this before:
'US Innovation' vs 'China’s “Better Cheaper” Version'
Facebook / Instagram WeChat / Xiaohongshu
YouTube Shorts Douyin (TikTok in China)
Google Search Baidu
ChatGPT (OpenAI) DeepSeek AI
The pattern is simple: China doesn’t just copy – they optimize, scale, and outcompete. The US responds by banning them.
And guess what? The ban playbook is coming back.
OpenAI vs. China – The “Copy-Paste” Battle
China isn’t just building ChatGPT clones – they’re making them free. DeepSeek AI is disrupting the AI race by offering competitive models at a fraction of the cost.
TikTok destroyed Instagram Reels & YouTube Shorts → US tried to ban it.
DeepSeek AI is now outperforming OpenAI on efficiency → What’s next?
If history repeats itself, expect the US to start "national security" concerns about Chinese AI models soon. But the real reason? China is winning the innovation war.
My Take: The Real Reason Behind “Free” AI
Nothing in China is truly free. If they’re offering cutting-edge AI for nothing, the real cost is your data, ideas, and innovation.
They’re not just training AI – they’re training on global users.
By offering AI for free, they gather intelligence on how people build, create, and think.
This isn’t just about AI models – it’s about controlling the future of tech.
The US stock market just realized this, and so should you.
🚀 Watch how NVIDIA, OpenAI, and US regulators react in the coming weeks. A ban may be inevitable.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. I am for sure NOT taking my AI innovation on a 'free- copy/paste is ok' place/ NOT Happening.
NDQ100 Update - Overaction? Thanks for checking out our latest update. Today, we are looking at the NDQ100 daily chart.
What a 48 hours we have seen. After a plunge that wiped off up to 1 trillion dollars and close to 600 million off Nvidia, we saw a fast fightback at the end of the session and a recovery on Tuesday. The crash occurred after Chinese Tech company DeepSeek shocked the AI world with a powerful LLM.
Looking at the last price action, has support reformed? Will we see the new push higher after this last seller test? Buyers look interested, but we would like further confirmation with rallies that fill the gap or a test of the last high.
Good trading from Eightcap.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ successfully rebounded and closed higher. Yesterday was a day where selling at the 3-day moving average was possible, and after rebounding to the 3-day line, it faced resistance and closed at that level. The rebound appears to be a recovery from the excessive drop on Monday due to overblown concerns about China's Deepseek.
On the daily chart, the MACD remains above the signal line, maintaining a buy signal, which suggests further attempts to rebound are likely. Additionally, today’s FOMC meeting and major corporate earnings reports will be pivotal in determining whether the downward gap created on Monday will be filled.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a golden cross after the sharp drop and subsequent rebound. If the golden cross is not confirmed and the index falls again, it may test the double-bottom level, so caution is advised when chasing a buying position.
However, if the golden cross is confirmed, it would be advisable to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy, as buying momentum remains strong. Today’s primary strategy should be selling at the 5-day moving average resistance level, making it advantageous to sell at resistance areas near the 5-day line. With strong upward momentum and potential pre-market consolidation due to economic data announcements, a box-range trading approach would be ideal.
OIL
Oil closed higher, encountering resistance near the $74 level. The daily chart shows that the 240-day moving average acted as support, with a bullish candle forming as oil prepares for another rebound attempt. The MACD still signals a sell trend, but consistent buying efforts could continue.
As mentioned earlier, even if oil rises, it’s likely to face pullbacks at certain levels. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has been confirmed, with a double-bottom pattern forming alongside a lower shadow, indicating a favorable buy-on-dip strategy.
If a strong rebound occurs, prices could rise to the 10-day moving average around $75.50. Selling positions should be avoided for now, with a focus on buy-on-dip strategies. Additionally, be mindful of price volatility due to today’s inventory report.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by the 10-day moving average on the daily chart. The MACD and signal line on the daily chart still show separation, and gold has recovered both the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, making a buy-on-dip strategy effective.
For April contracts, it is crucial to see whether gold can break above $2,815 on the weekly chart and form a bullish candle. Be cautious of increased volatility in gold prices resulting from today’s FOMC meeting outcomes.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is on the verge of a golden cross. If gold fails to see additional significant gains, the price could form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If the MACD fails to build further upward momentum and starts to fall, a third wave of selling could occur, so keeping this scenario in mind is advised.
The clear trend will likely be determined after today’s FOMC meeting, so monitoring gold’s movement after the announcement will be key.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,520 / 21,475 / 21,410 / 21,375 / 21,290
-Sell: 21,610 / 21,700 / 21,770 / 21,900
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 73.65 / 73.10 / 72.60
-Sell: 74.60 / 75.00 / 75.50 / 76.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy: 2,791 / 2,787 / 2,783 / 2,775
-Sell: 2,804 / 2,809 / 2,821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls won the decision again and we are on our way to close the gap to 21900 and likely print 22k again. It would be a huge surprise if the gap would stay open. Tomorrow is FOMC and it could be good for a huge surprise to either side. No matter what, I will be flat going into it. Decent looking bull wedge up now and I expect a better pull-back to maybe the 1h 20ema before we can have more upside tomorrow. Dips should stay above 21400.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21400 - 22000
bull case: Bulls took control again after the nasty bear trap on the US open. They are once again in full control and their next targets are 21700, gap close to 21900 and then obviously 22k. The breakout retest is 21420 and any pull-back should stay above or this could become something else.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears sold the double top 21420 for a decent 200+ point sell-off but bulls were having none of it afterwards. Bears had to give up and we are on our way up again. Best bears can hope for is to scalp 50-100 points on new highs. Bears really have nothing here. Jpow could help but until then I expect market to trade much higher already.
Could this move up become a lower high below 22000 or could the gap to 21900 stay open? Obviously yes but for now the buying is strong and I don’t want to hold swing shorts when bulls are in full control again. No matter how amazing the selling on Monday was.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Bullish on pull-backs. Bears fumbled it again and next target is the gap close to 21900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap around 21200 once it turned violently to the upside. Market could not get below 21100 which was a warning to the bears, that we are printing higher lows after higher highs.
NASDAQ: Now targets 24,000 by Q2Nasdaq has recovered yesterday's crash and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.692, MACD = 88.960, ADX = 31.397). The current rebound is taking place on the 1D MA50 and is a double bottom on the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance coming from the July 11th 2024 High. The same P1 level was seen supporting a year ago the January 5th 2024 Low. This hold ended in a rally to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. With even their RSI Channel Down patterns being identical, we expect a new bullish wave to start now, aiming the 1.5 Fib once again (TP = 24,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/27/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/27/25
📈 21750 (NEXT LEVELS: 21865)
📉 21406 (NEXT LEVELS: 21372, 21227)
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Nvidia's Largest Single-Day Decline and Its ImplicationsNvidia Experienced Its Largest Single-Day Decline on 27th Jan, tumbled 17%, erasing USD589B from its market capitalisation, it was the biggest in the US stock market history.
What will be the implications?
Last month, we discussed how the Nasdaq reached and responded well to the upper band of its parallel channel.
Nvidia being one of the largest market cap stocks in Nasdaq. What will be Nasdaq’s performance like for the rest of the year?
Let’s explore how we can include fundamental analysis to make sense of the situation.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Technical Analysis on SBC Medical Group (28/01/2025)Neutral Outlook with Key Support at 5.00–5.08
Price Action Analysis
SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated (NASDAQ: SBC) is currently trading at 5.08 on the day. Over the past week, the stock has shown consolidation within a narrow range of
5.02–5.13, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers. The 1-hour chart highlights a lack of decisive momentum, with prices hovering near the $5.08 level, suggesting short-term indecision in the market.
Immediate Support: The 5.00–5.02 zone has emerged as a critical floor, with the stock rebounding from this level multiple times in recent sessions. A sustained break below $5.00 could signal bearish pressure.
Resistance: The upper boundary lies at 5.08–5.13, where the stock has faced selling interest. A close above 5.13 level may retest the previous high in November levels.
Trading volume remains subdued, averaging between 33,950–38,980 shares, consistent with consolidation phases. The absence of significant volume spikes indicates limited institutional participation and reinforces the neutral near-term bias.
While momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are not explicitly provided, the sideways price action suggests a neutral RSI reading (near 50), aligning with the lack of overbought or oversold conditions.
SBC’s price action reflects a “wait-and-see” approach among market participants. For now, the stock appears anchored near its 5.08 pivot point level. Traders may consider range-bound strategies (e.g., buying near 5.02) until a breakout occurs.
bloodbathNASDAQ (Left)
Elliott Wave Pattern: A possible Elliott Wave pattern is seen with an impulse and correction structure. Wave X appears to be a resistance point where the price has bounced down.
Key Zones:
Resistance: 21,433.1 (point X)
Support: 20,150.6 (point W)
Zone of Interest: 19,912.6 (point Y)
Analysis: The price has touched the resistance at 21,433.1 and has pulled back. If the price breaks this level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish movement. However, if the price fails to overcome this resistance and falls again, it could look for support at 20,150.6 or even lower at 19,912.6.
NQ (Right)
Elliott Wave Pattern: Similar to the NASDAQ, a wave pattern is observed with an impulse and correction structure. Point X again acts as resistance.
Key Zones:
Resistance: 21,571.75 (point X)
Support: 20,819.25 (point W)
Zone of Interest: 20,307.25 (point Y)
Analysis: The price has touched the resistance at 21,571.75 and has turned down. If the price breaks this resistance, it could indicate a strong bullish movement. If not, the price could look for the support at 20,819.25 or continue to move down towards 20,307.25.
Trading Idea on TradingView
Trading Strategy:
NASDAQ:
Long Entry: If price breaks and closes above 21,433.1 with significant volume, it could be a signal to go long, looking for an initial target at the next resistance.
Short Entry: If price fails to break 21,433.1 and shows signs of reversal, a short entry could be considered with a target towards 20,150.6 or 19,912.6.
NQ:
Long Entry: A close above 21,571.75 with volume confirmation would be a signal for a long position, targeting the next resistance.
Short Entry: If price fails to break 21,571.75 and starts to decline, a short entry could be viable with targets at 20,819.25 or 20,307.25.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: For long entries, place a stop loss below the last significant support. For short entries, above the last resistance.
Take Profit: Adjust according to the identified support and resistance levels.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ plunged to close lower, influenced by China’s Deepseek developments. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the gap-down movement pushed the MACD further downward, resulting in a sharp decline in the NASDAQ index. On the daily chart, a gap was created as a bearish candle formed with a high opening price. Given the moving average trends, breaching the 120-day moving average in the current range could trigger a downward wave, threatening the 240-day moving average as well.
However, the MACD on the daily chart has not yet crossed below the signal line (dead cross), so it’s worth observing whether the market rebounds to form a box range or continues its downward momentum. If the 120-day moving average is breached, a drop to the 240-day moving average is possible. It would also be prudent to consider levels as low as 19,800, which aligns with the 10-day moving average on the monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart.
On the 240-minute chart, a steep decline is evident, with the MACD and signal line falling sharply below the zero line. The angle suggests that further downward movement is likely, making sell strategies favorable during upward corrections. With the VIX index surging, volatility has intensified. Traders using one-contract strategies should consider scaling down their leverage—e.g., by using micro NASDAQ contracts or splitting positions into smaller increments like 0.01 lots through MetaTrader—allowing for more flexible risk management in these volatile conditions.
OIL
Oil closed lower, finding support at the 240-day moving average. This is a key level, as it overlaps with a prior resistance zone, making a pullback buy strategy effective in this range. However, the MACD has crossed below the signal line (dead cross), maintaining the sell signal, and this suggests that any rebound is likely to face significant pullbacks.
Rebounds are expected to occur within a large box range, with the market likely undergoing time corrections to align the moving averages. On the 240-minute chart, sell signals are evident. Even with further declines, the 240-minute chart indicates that the 240-day moving average could act as strong support, potentially allowing a rebound toward the 60-day moving average, which corresponds to approximately $76.
This aligns with a resistance level seen on the daily chart, making a pullback buy strategy advisable near this zone. Oil prices are also being influenced by the strengthening dollar, fueled by global market volatility. While AI-related factors have contributed to the dollar’s strength, the impact on oil prices is expected to be limited, with oil maintaining its own unique volatility.
GOLD
Gold plunged to close lower due to dollar strength amid heightened volatility. On the weekly chart, the MACD resumed its downward trajectory, with the gold price showing a steep decline. The MACD has not been able to cross above the signal line decisively, consistent with its pattern.
On the daily chart, it is critical to monitor whether the 10-day moving average provides support during the current downtrend. On the 240-minute chart, MACD divergence accompanied gold’s sharp decline. However, since the MACD and signal line are still above the zero line, there may be room for a rebound.
It’s essential to check for support and recovery near the 2,730 level. If prices rebound, gold could aim to test previous highs based on the daily chart trend. Avoid chasing prices lower with aggressive selling; instead, focus on pullback buying strategies.
If the NASDAQ continues its decline and gold follows suit, further downside toward 2,700 is possible. Overall, buying during pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but strict risk management with stop-loss levels is crucial.
The volatility in U.S. markets has increased due to China’s Deepseek developments. As always, heightened volatility in futures markets presents both opportunities and risks. Traders who can maintain disciplined strategies may capitalize on this environment, while those who cannot may risk significant losses.
With Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as well as earnings reports from Tesla and Meta on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, market volatility is expected to remain high. Wishing you success in trading this week!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,260 / 21,140 / 21,100 / 21,040 / 21,890
-Sell: 21,365 / 21,415 / 21,480 / 21,540 / 21,660
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.60
-Sell: 73.55 / 74.40 / 75.00 / 75.95
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2,739 / 2,733 / 2,726 / 2,716
-Sell: 2,754 / 2,760 / 2,767 / 2,776
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Huge gap down on Globex open and market just sold off. We retraced about 50% and now it’s decision time again. Bears need to keep it below 21500 for a retest of 21000 or lower and bulls want the megaphone to continue and squeeze the shorts to death. Above 21500 no bear can hold short and we will most likely see acceleration upwards. I favor the bears if we stay below the 1h 20ema. For now we are in a trading range 21100 - 21400 until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20000 - 22200
bull case: Bulls prevented a bloodbath and had a nasty reversal from 20763 for a 600 point bounce. They need a strong 1h close above 21350 if they want higher prices.
Invalidation is below 21100.
bear case: Bears need to keep it below 21500 or more bulls will join the party again. The longer we can keep the big gap from 21908 down to 21400ish open, the better for the bears and more bulls will give up, hoping for 22000 again. The low of last week was 21370 and the bounce got up to 21395. Close is always close enough. Bears remain in control of the market until we see a big 1h close above the 20ema and 21400. For now this is just a two-legged pull-back to the ema, so bears really need to defend this and not fumble a great setup again.
Invalidation is above 21500.
short term: Bearish against the 1h 20ema, which is around the 50% retracement. 21000 will get retested and maybe the lows as well.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting anywhere above 21500 or buying below 20900 during the big spike down from 21140 to 20763. The spike down came after nasdaq had already made a 700+ point down move and those spikes are most likely the intermediate bottom and we see a pullback because bears needed to reduce risk and take some of those windfall profits.
QQQ still in rangeQQQ continues to move in a range since the December high 2024.
In my opinion, today's sell-off is also no cause for concern.
Only in the event of a downward breakout can things become critical for individual stocks.
I continue to keep an eye out for strong individual stocks that show relative strength in order to recognize potential breakouts at an early stage. NASDAQ:QQQ