My Trading Journal #4Hi guys, this is my vision for today, targeting the low in price 20,939.75.
Have a great day !
Nasdaq
NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up.
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USNAS100 - Bullish Momentum and Potential Reversal LevelsTechnically:
The price experienced upward momentum on Friday and maintains its bullish trajectory, with stability observed above the critical level of 20,860.
Bearish Scenario:
A sustained break below 20,860 could trigger further declines, with potential targets at 20,730 and 20,600.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 20,860, the bullish outlook remains intact, paving the way toward 20,990. A breakout above this level may propel the price to an all-time high of 21,230. Notably, a retest of the 20,860 level from the current price is a plausible scenario.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20860
Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21230
Support Levels: 20730, 20660, 20550
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Analysis Company Overview:
AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ:ASTS is pioneering a global space-based cellular broadband network, enabling mobile connectivity in remote and underserved areas. Its BlueBird satellite technology and strategic partnerships position ASTS as a disruptor in satellite communications.
Key Growth Drivers:
BlueBird Satellite Deployment:
Successful launch of the first five BlueBird satellites demonstrates AST’s ability to deliver innovative mobile broadband solutions globally.
This milestone positions the company to begin revenue generation through early adoption and partnerships.
Space Development Agency (SDA) HALO Program:
AST’s selection for the Highly Agile and Low Orbit (HALO) program opens a significant opportunity in the government and defense sectors.
This collaboration may lead to diversified revenue streams and further innovation in secure satellite communications.
Network Expansion Plans:
Agreements for up to 60 additional satellite launches in 2025-2026 will drive subscriber growth, enable broader network coverage, and accelerate revenue generation.
Strategic Partnerships and Investments:
Backing from industry giants like AT&T, Verizon, Google, and Vodafone highlights ASTS’s credibility and potential to reshape the global communications market.
These partnerships may also enhance access to established customer bases, supporting rapid scaling.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Stance: We are bullish on ASTS above $19.50-$20.00, driven by its transformative technology, strategic partnerships, and extensive market opportunities.
Upside Target: Our price target is $40.00-$42.00, reflecting ASTS’s potential to capture a substantial share of the growing satellite broadband market.
🚀 AST SpaceMobile—Connecting the World, Beyond Boundaries! #SpaceTech #ASTS #SatelliteRevolution
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism
The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors.
US Economic Data Highlights
Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist.
Broader Context
Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Agape ATP Corporation - Is a Trend Reversal on the Horizon?If you’ve been keeping an eye on Agape ATP Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPC), you’d notice that the stock has been on a downtrend for quite some time.
However, there are some subtle but interesting signs popping up on the chart that suggest things might be taking a turn for the better. Let’s break it down in simple terms.
For weeks now, the price has been holding steady around the $1.50 mark.
This is a big deal because it shows that the sellers might be running out of steam. It’s like a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and right now, the buyers seem to be putting up a good fight.
One of the first things traders look for in a potential trend reversal is volume, and it’s starting to show some life here. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen turnover starting to tick up.
Why is this important?
Because volume tells you where the action is. If more people are trading the stock, it often means something is brewing.
Alright, let’s not get too technical here, but moving averages (MAs) are basically the average prices over a set period.
ATPC’s shorter-term MA10 (10-day moving average) is beginning to flatten out. If the stock price can break above this level, it’s a strong signal that a new uptrend might be starting.
Think of $1.50 as a floor. If the stock doesn’t drop below this level and starts climbing, it’s a sign of strength. Traders often keep an eye on such levels because they can act as launching pads for upward momentum.
When you put all these signs together—stabilising price, increasing volume, flattening moving averages—it looks like the downtrend could be running out of gas. Sure, we’re not seeing fireworks yet, but the early signals are there.
What Should You Do?
If you’re thinking of jumping in, here’s the plan:
• Watch the RM1.50 level like a hawk. If the price stays above it, that’s a good sign.
• Look for more volume in the coming weeks. If it keeps picking up, the trend reversal could be real.
• Keep an eye on the short-term MA10. A break above this line might be the green light you’re waiting for.
As always, do your homework and manage your risk. No one knows for sure what will happen, but the signs are looking promising for ATPC.
If a reversal is indeed underway, it could be a chance to catch the stock on the ground floor of a potential new uptrend. Stay sharp!
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the ascending channel, you can look for positions to sell Nasdaq to the 20500 target. Nasdaq buying positions will be after breaking the resistance and maintaining the ascending channel.
Following the extended Thanksgiving weekend, financial markets had an opportunity to process a wide array of data and developments. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month boosted the markets, as investors anticipated that his promises to cut taxes and ease regulations would enhance corporate profitability. However, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on key trading partners were largely overlooked by stock market traders, although certain sectors, such as the automotive industry, experienced adverse effects.
Susannah Streeter, Head of Money Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated, “There is still considerable volatility, and I think this stems from the belief that the potentially damaging impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize.”
For equity investors, 2024 has been unexpectedly favorable, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best annual performances in history. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by more than 20%, while Nvidia’s stock has tripled in value.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last month dropped to its lowest level in a year and has indicated contraction for nearly two consecutive years. Despite the discouraging outlook it provides for the manufacturing sector, optimism remains regarding future economic activity, especially with the beginning of an easing cycle and the continued reduction in interest rates and borrowing costs.
In contrast, the ISM Services Index for October reached 56.0, marking the strongest growth since the summer of 2022 Within this index, the employment component rose by nearly five points to 53.0. Steady consumer demand has been a key driver supporting the services sector. This week, the release of ISM Services PMI data will be closely monitored to determine whether persistent consumer demand and favorable labor market conditions can further stabilize and sustain growth in this sector.
Additionally, the impacts of hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with widespread strikes, led to a modest increase of just 12,000 jobs in the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for October. This report was cautiously interpreted as a clear sign of gradual cooling and weakening in the labor market.
Beyond the NFP data, other indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings will also be critical. Together, these data points could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential interest rate cut in December. While the labor market remains relatively stable, evident signs of gradual declines in employment and wage growth are becoming increasingly apparent.
Nasdaq market analysis: 02-Dec-2024Happy New month Traders. Let’s dive into today's Nasdaq market analysis. Share insights, and potentially spot opportunities for good pips.
$NDQ shortsAfter Monday's peak @21026.5 and Wednesday's drop to 20624.8 and Friday's return to 20973 area is the market prepping for a major bear run within week 1 - 2 of December
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism
The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors.
US Economic Data Highlights
Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist.
Broader Context
Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 27 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
D TF - Noted a potential D neckline (which will form if market comes down, marked in neon green line)
4H TF - Noted a potential 4H neckline. If the 7am candle closes below the neckline, then price might be moving down and I would have to be patient and wait for quality confirmations before entering a good buy (marked in orange line)
Difficult to identify areas of confluence, but highlighted two green areas:
1. The 4H EMA was roughly in the same area as the pivot point and 4H 0.382 fib level
2. The D 0.50 fib area was roughly in the same area as the D EMA
Note: EMAs are marked on the chart where they were at a point in time on Wednesday. They have now moved due to passage of time.
As the day progressed:
Entered a buy at the hand icon Z. - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF, with neckline (+ pivot) broken upwards with a strong momentum candle
2. S&R - pivot broken upwards
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. The trend is your friend!
4. Fib - DB formed right at the 4H 0.382 fib level, indicating that price is reacting to this level and because neckline is broken up with a strong momentum candle, price is indicating that buyers are stepping in and price is ready to move up.
5. Candlesticks - On the 1H TF, price is managing to close above the 4H 0.382 fib level with wicks sticking out below.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, which is below the 4H EMA for extra protection, i.e. hoping that price will indeed react to the dynamic support offered by the EMA.
Price moved up, luckily more that 250 pips, and I secured at entry (placed actual stop loss at my trade's entry position).
This is one of the rules of my system - place SL at entry after 250 pips.
And Wednesday reminded me again how important it is to be super disciplined and always stick to your trade rules. I would never have expected Nas to make such a huge and aggressive correction. If I was sloppy with my discipline, I could have lost months and months of hard work building my account.
So whatever your trade rules are, this is a reminder to stick with them EVERY TIME, because you created them to protect you and they will save you when you least expect it.
Price dropped drastically, I was taken out at entry and then price proceeded to fall through the floor rapidly.
I entered an aggressive entry at hand icon X. - Confirmations:
Double bottom formed on the 15min TF right at the D EMA + W 0.50 fib level + D 0.618 fib level
Price moved up and I closed at the end of the day at the blue arrow, making 637 pips for the day.
I closed because I thought Thanksgiving would be slow trading and decided that I would not trade Thursday and Friday because I don't like slow trading.
Looking at the charts now, I see trading was anything but slow!!
Hope you had a good trading week! :)
See you next week for some exciting trading!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism
The Nasdaq index bounced back with a 0.48% gain today. The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors.
US Economic Data Highlights
Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations:
- **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions.
- **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion.
- **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but slowing from revised data of 0.6%.
- **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods.
- **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66.3% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. If realized, this could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term effects remain uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist.
Broader Context
Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
TESLA - LONG TESLA is in downtrend since july 2023.
Currently the price has given the breakout from falling wedge with bullish div and now seems like the bulls are getting ready for some strong upside movement.
If the market continue to trend higher , the next optimum target could be 215-217
followed by 238-241.
Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Zillow Group, Inc. NASDAQ:Z is a leading online real estate marketplace, transforming the real estate industry through innovative technology and strategic partnerships. Its platform serves as a bridge between high-intent homebuyers/renters and top-performing agents, fostering an ecosystem that drives revenue growth and enhances user satisfaction.
Key Drivers of Growth:
Agent Connections Strategy:
Zillow’s approach of connecting motivated buyers and renters with experienced agents generates immediate revenue through lead generation while cultivating a loyal user base, contributing to a self-sustaining growth flywheel.
Outpacing Industry Growth:
Analysts forecast 12% annual revenue growth for Zillow over the next three years, surpassing the 11% sector average. This positions the company to deliver superior stock performance amidst a competitive market.
Real Estate Tech Innovation:
Under the leadership of CEO Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow focuses on developing cutting-edge tools that streamline real estate transactions, such as advanced AI-driven property valuations and user-friendly interfaces. These innovations solidify its role as a leader in real estate technology.
Market Potential:
Zillow benefits from the increasing adoption of digital real estate solutions, supported by consumer demand for convenience and efficiency in property searches, transactions, and rentals.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Stance: We are bullish on Z above $63.00-$64.00, given its strategic growth initiatives, sector-leading revenue projections, and technological advancements.
Upside Target: With its strong positioning, we target $105.00-$110.00, reflecting Zillow’s potential to capitalize on a growing market and its tech-driven competitive edge.
📈 Zillow—Innovating the Real Estate Landscape! #PropTech #RealEstateInnovation #ZillowGroup
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism
The Nasdaq index bounced back with a 0.37% gain today, recovering some ground after yesterday’s 0.5% decline. The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors.
US Economic Data Highlights
Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations:
- **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions.
- **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion.
- **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but slowing from revised data of 0.6%.
- **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods.
- **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. If realized, this could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term effects remain uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist.
Broader Context
Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the Nasdaq as it rebounds from yesterday’s decline. Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow.
current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart
key levels : 20500 - 21500
bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range.
medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data
The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior.
US Economic Data Highlights
- **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
- **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion.
- **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%.
- **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods.
- **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets.
Rate Cut Expectations
Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments.
Broader Context
Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term.
Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
My Trading Journal #4Hi everyone, this is my view for today, targeting the ASIA low from the previous day.
Attention:
We have a Liquidity Pool above London and ASIA today, that is, I will be looking at Sales only after clearing the high with a STOP HUNT of at least 27 PTS, the ideal being 81 PTS!
Have a great day and happy trading!
NASADQ PUSH UPlooking at the market today we see support and ressiatmce very clear.
in my video a go into a deep dive analisis.
NASDAQ: BLMZ: Collection Phase Begins! After the consolidation period for BLMZ, we noticed a significant breakout on $0.550 ~ $0.600 level, we see a positive trend reversal together with volume had occurred for the past few trading days. This shows a positive upward trend with BLMZ breaking its key resistance level of $0.630 while continue to test of $0.650 resistance level.
We continue to recommend trading BUY for BLMZ with a immediate TP on $0.800 level.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 26 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
Unfortunately I woke up to my positions from yesterday being taken out at entry :(
I did take one third partial profit last night a few minutes before closing as I knew it was a risk to leave it open overnight (especially as the D candle was about to close red below the day 0.618 sell fib level) and I wanted some reward for yesterday's trading.
M TF - remains bullish and sets the tone of the overall, big picture, market sentiment.
W TF - looking at the line chart and imagining this week's candle would be dominated by bears, one can see a potential weekly DT neckline at the yellow highlight. If candles start closing below this point then the market would turn very bearish.
D TF - Yesterday the D candle closed red below the D 0.618 sell fib level. This is a bearish signal and bulls will need strength to break this level upwards.
4H - drawing the sell fib from swing hight at B. to swing low at A., it is evident that the 4H 0.50 sell fib level lines up with the pivot point (an area of confluence for a sell) and the 4H 0.618 sell fib level lines up with the D 0.618 sell fib level (super strong area of confluence). Bulls will need incredible strength and momentum to break these levels upwards. Need to watch out. But the 23:00 4H candle closed with a very long wick down to the higher TF's buy fib levels. This indicates that buyers stepped in at these levels.
All Lower TF EMA's are below price at time of writing (4H, 1H and 30min) this might provide dynamic support to help boost price upwards. Note - 4H EMA drawn in by me indicated the position of the EMA at some point in the day, now, many hours after, the EMA has moved.
If the 4H candle closes at 7am, creating a DB with the neckline broken upwards, I will enter.
As the day progressed:
The 4H candle that closes at 7am (in my time zone) did indeed close higher than the neckline and break the neckline upwards
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on 4H TF formed with the neckline broken upwards (indicated by the blue lines). At the same time there was a kind of DB / H&S on the 1H TF.
2. S&R - At time of market pattern formation, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support. We also have a strong 4H resistance turned to support area (refer to yesterday's post about keeping 5x 4H candles down)
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - as a trend trader I always want to trade with the trend. Get in on a retracement (indicated by fib levels) and then ride the trend.
4. Fib - DB forming right above the 4H 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - 2 x long wick 4H candles wicking down to the D 0.50 fib level, indicating a strong bullish reaction at this level. Candles are also closing above the 4H EMA which shows bullish strength.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line roughly half the height of the 4H DB, but below the 4H EMA for extra protection. I always use mental stops because Nas is so wild and volatile that hard stops will often take you out at a loss. For me, what matters is how candles close.
Price ultimately went my way and I closed the majority of my positions at the higher hand icon, when a DT formed on the 5min TF. I left a runner open but price wicked me out at C.
Starting to wonder if I would make more money taking profit at 1000 pips daily. Market has been very volatile these past days and perhaps that is why I feel this way, because I know for sure that taking profit at 1000 pips would not be a good strategy when Nas truly starts running / seriously trending. I will start taking detailed notes over the next few months and come back to you on my observations.
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
My Trading Journal #3Hi guys, this is my vision for today, targeting the ASIA low.
Have a great day !
