NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview
The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation.
Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025.
Technical Analysis
Trendlines
Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum.
Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative.
Key Levels
Support
Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average).
Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone).
Resistance
Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge).
Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high).
Momentum Indicators
RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral.
MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term.
Macroeconomic Context
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025.
Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital.
Economic Growth
U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents.
Corporate Earnings
Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold.
Geopolitical Landscape
China-U.S. Relations
Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD.
Europe
Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region.
Middle East
Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets.
2025 Outlook
Base Case
The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop.
Bear Case
Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets.
Bull Case
A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000).
Conclusion
The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios.
For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions.
"There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
Nasdaq
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour.
Morning analysis:
FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor.
4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level.
A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line).
Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls.
In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy.
If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets.
It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy.
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction.
Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards.
2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area.
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards
4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level.
Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB.
Price moved up well.
Now for setting TP's.
Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions).
But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious.
The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones.
Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards.
I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes.
I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits.
Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open.
Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down.
I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for.
I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations.
You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better.
Looks now like the market has turned bearish.
Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken.
The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up.
Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;)
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips:
I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ Is Close To The Main Trend And Support!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a buying opportunity around 20,500 zone, NASDAQ is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 20500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NQ - Nasdaq? Read Tomorrows Wallstreet JournalIt hasn’t made any sense for a long time now how the markets keep climbing.
Manipulation? Self-perpetuation?
Honestly, who cares why. As the saying goes:
“The dwarves dug too deep. And what they unearthed was their doom.”
Or, in another version:
“The greedy vultures flew too high, and all they found was gravity.”
In the chart, we see two pitchforks:
The orange one highlights the actual overextension.
The white one represents the moderated version.
Interpreting this image is simple if you have a rulebook you can trust—and a few decades of market experience under your belt. §8-)
1. **The price turns at the orange centerline.**
This means the market is in "balance"—in the context of the overextension.
Or…
2. **Put differently:** In the context of the white pitchfork, the market overshot the upper median line parallel. This was an overextension by a factor of 2.
**What do we do with this?**
We stick to the rulebook for median lines.
The rulebook says that when the price trades above the U-MLH (upper median line parallel), fails to hold, and drops back into the fork, the market will fall to the next line.
- **Orange fork:** Down to the L-MLH (lower median line parallel).
- **White fork:** Down to the centerline.
Beyond that, I **think/guess/predict/read-tea-leaves** that the market will fall much deeper in 2025.
Please note the distinction here:
- The first statement is the projection—the interpretation of the chart.
- The latter is a speculation (no crystal ball involved).
For me, it’s clear: medium-term **short** with multiple price targets.
Nasdaq 100: Make-or-Break Trendline SupportChart Analysis:
The US 100 Index has pulled back from recent highs but remains above its rising trendline (black), maintaining the broader bullish structure.
1️⃣ Rising Trendline:
The trendline, originating from the August lows, has been a key dynamic support for the index. Price is currently testing this level around 21,150, making it a critical area to watch.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): The index remains above the 50-day SMA at 20,818, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 19,438, reflecting a long-term bullish trend.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 51.88, signaling neutral momentum, giving room for the index to either bounce or consolidate further.
MACD: The MACD line has turned downward, suggesting weakening bullish momentum but no decisive bearish crossover yet.
What to Watch:
A bounce from the trendline could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with immediate resistance near the recent highs around 21,600.
A break below the trendline may shift attention to the 50-day SMA or the 20,800 level for potential support.
The US 100 Index remains within a broader bullish structure, with the rising trendline acting as a critical support level for near-term price action.
-MW
NAS100 H4 | Potential bearish reversalNAS100 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 21,404.67 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 21,660.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 20,949.82 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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The key is whether it can be supported in the support zone
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
Support zone
1st: Left Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (21039.7) ~ 21348.0
2nd: 19582.6
However, when the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is touched, whether it is supported or not is important.
The next volatility period is expected to be around December 26th.
If it is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is expected to eventually rise to the left Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (23557.7) ~ right Fibonacci ratio 1.27 (23962.1) and re-determine the trend.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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LGIH - Long - Rate Cut - Falling Wedge, Double Bottom The FED just cut rates for the third time in 2024 and sees the possiblity of two more cuts next year. LGI Homes has a strong management team, a great business model and a record of profitability in the toughest market conditions. They've grown significantly since 2003, to become one of the top home builders in the country. Throughout 2024, many shareholders increased their position in the company and the recent optimism about the economy should positively affect their share price. Long throughout 2025..
TP1 $136
TP2 $140
SP $84
Let's see if the recent rate cut from the FED turns this Falling Wedge around. A drop below $84 could continue 10 to 15% more.
This is not investment advice. Talk with your financial manager about investing.
Why LGI Homes (LGIH) is a Smart Investment in the Homebuilding Sector
With rising interest rates, inflation, and an economy that is sluggish in some areas, and doing well in others, homebuilder stocks may not seem like a wise long-term investment. However, inflation is decreasing, and there’s a very good chance we will see a third rate cut today from the Fed
LGI Homes is positioned well for a struggling economy, an economy much worse than the one we face today. After all, according to a recent Fortune/Deloitte survey, 84% of CEOs are optimistic about the next 12-months . It feels like every day Americans are too.
LGI has a portfolio of affordable homes, experienced management, and a proven track record of remaining profitable when many competitors are losing money. LGI Homes (NASDAQ: LGIH) sticks out as a solid bet in our current climate. One of the safest investment opportunities in the homebuilding sector, particularly for investors that like to bet on companies with invested executives and a deep portfolio of products with a mass market. catering to first-time homebuyers in the nation's most popular construction markets. Based on the information provided and recent market developments, let’s analyze the investment potential of LGI Homes.
Company Strengths
LGI Homes has been a leader in affordable housing for over , focusing on first-time buyers in a market where affordability is key. The company’s strengths extend beyond their business model of building move-in-ready homes for first-time homebuyers. They’re focused on processes and procedures that ensure efficient operations.
Market Positioning
LGI Homes has carved out a strong position as one of the top homebuilders in the U.S., focusing on entry-level homes for first-time buyers. This is particularly important in today’s economic environment, where most potential homeowners are concerned about affordability. By targeting this growing market segment, the company ensures a steady demand for its products, helping the company remain competitive.
Resilience
LGI Homes’ ability to stay profitable during the 2008-2009 financial crisis is a testament to its executive team, processes, and market strategy. While many builders faced huge losses or went out of business entirely, LGI Homes remained profitable. This ability to adapt and perform well during tough times speaks volumes about the company’s long-term strength.
Operational Efficiency
LGI Homes only builds move-in-ready homes, allowing the company to build quickly without sacrificing quality and better manage standing inventory. The company maintains strong operational practices that support high margins, such as utilizing a paperless paper order system and master build schedule to improve efficiency. They have also maintained long-term relationships with subcontractors, often working with the same partners since 2003, leading to consistent quality and reduced warranty costs.
Financial Conservatism
A key part of LGI Homes’ success has been its cautious approach to finances. By focusing on stability and minimizing risk, the company quickly became one of the nation’s top homebuilders. This conservative financial strategy offers security to investors, even in uncertain economic times, and positions the company well to weather market fluctuations.
Employee Satisfaction
LGI Homes stands out in the industry for its strong company culture and investments in employee training and growth. This year they were recognized for the fourth consecutive year as a great place to work and recieved another Top Workplace USA award from Energage. The company was also placed on Newsweek’s list of the World’s Most Trustworthy Companies in 2023 and 2024. This recognition is a sign of high employee satisfaction, which often leads to higher productivity and lower turnover.
Recent Developments
In recent news, Basswood Capital Management LLC increased its stake in LGI Homes by acquiring over 26,000 shares, valued at around $3.1 million and many other large investors increased their holdings throughout the year. These moves reflect confidence from institutional investors in the company’s future. When large investors make such moves, it often signals strong expectations for the company’s growth.
Strategic Management
LGI Homes’ success isn’t just about building houses; it’s about building a stable, sustainable business. The company’s approach to both financial and operational efficiency has allowed it to thrive regardless of the economy. Below you’ll see, this combination of discipline and adaptability makes LGI Homes stand out in the homebuilding industry and with investors.
Consistent Profitability
Since it started building homes in 2003, LGI Homes has maintained consistent profitability, even during the great recession. This track record speaks to the company’s disciplined financial management and its ability to navigate challenging economic conditions with stability.
Strong Balance Sheet
The company keeps a conservative capital structure, which provides them with flexibility and financial stability. As of September 30, 2024, the company had a total liquidity of $375.4 million, including $60.9 million in cash and a $314.5 million revolving credit facility. Their relatively low debt-to-capitalization ratio of 42.7% reflects the company’s careful management of debt.
Move-in-ready Homes/Spec Homes
LGI Homes focuses on building homes that are move-in-ready, allowing them to better manage costs and inventory. This approach gives the company more control over the construction process. By offering spec homes, LGI can provide a smoother, more predictable experience for buyers, while also ensuring they’re able to deliver quality homes without the delays or unexpected costs that can come with other building models.
Insider Confidence
The company’s executives have a significant financial stake in the company, indicating their confidence in its future. When insiders have a large personal investment, it aligns their interests with those of shareholders, showing they’re committed to driving long-term success.
High Gross Margins
LGI Homes has managed to maintain impressive gross margins, even when market conditions have been challenging. The company’s approach focuses on profitability over sheer volume, balancing smart pricing strategies with thoughtful growth and land acquisition. This combination has helped them remain strong in terms of margins, year after year. Here’s a closer look at the key factors behind their success:
Disciplined Pricing and Incentive Approach
LGI Homes prioritizes maximizing profitability on every home they sell rather than pursuing a higher volume of homes at the expense of margins. They do this by implementing a “pace versus price” strategy, which involves avoiding broad price cuts, using targeted incentives and marketing efforts, and maintaining discipline in pricing decisions. This approach allowed the company to achieve an adjusted gross margin of 27.2% in Q3 2024, aligning with their pre-pandemic performance.
Community Growth and Selection
While LGI Homes prioritizes profitability, growth is also an important part of its business model. Increasing their community count by 30% year-over-year, they have grown to 138 communities in Q3 of 2024, allowing for economies of scale. Furthermore, LGI Homes strategically selects and develops communities to support their margin growth, focusing on opening more self-developed, higher-margin communities.
Efficient Land Acquisition and Development
LGI Homes is also known for its smart land acquisition strategy. The company often develops land on its own, capturing profits from both land development and homebuilding. This not only helps them maintain control over costs but also boosts their gross margins.
By implementing these strategies, LGI Homes has consistently delivered strong gross margins, with their Q3 2024 adjusted gross margin of 27.2% exceeding their full-year guidance and aligning with pre-pandemic levels. This performance underscores the effectiveness of their approach in maintaining profitability even in challenging market conditions.
Withstanding Market Challenges
The housing market today is facing several challenges, including rising home prices and shifting interest rates, which makes affordability a critical issue. LGI Homes is in a strong position to tackle these challenges. Their focus on entry-level, turnkey homes puts them in a position to benefit from first-time homebuyer tax programs passed by Congress or offered through states and cities. They can build more homes if the government decides to stimulate housing to address the shortage of homes and reduce inventory if the market fluctuates.
Adapting to Market Conditions
Even though LGI Homes takes a conservative approach, they’ve shown an ability to adapt when needed. For example, they’ve offered lower fixed rate mortgages and lowered home prices to offset rising costs and keep their inventory of finished homes low.
Commitment to Affordable Housing
With home prices climbing and interest rates fluctuating, affordability is a major hurdle for many buyers. LGI Homes’ focus on affordable, entry-level homes for first-time buyers puts them in an ideal spot to respond to these challenges. Their specialization in affordable housing ensures they will continue to attract a steady stream of homebuyers, even in uncertain times.
Diversifying Market Reach
LGI Homes has also broadened its offerings by adding not just more entry-level homes, but also active-adult and move-up homes under their Terrata Homes brand. This gives them access to a wider range of buyers, from first-time homeowners to empty nesters or people looking to upgrade. By expanding their product line, and sticking with building turnkey homes, LGI is positioned to weather economic ups and downs, ensuring they’re not overly reliant on any one market segment.
Ability to Meet Increased Demand
If a first-time homebuyer tax credit were introduced, or interest rates continue decreasing, LGI would benefit from a surge in demand. While many competitors may struggle to keep up with increased demand, LGI has efficient construction processes and procedures that make it possible for them to quickly adapt.
Investment Considerations
With its strong market position, operational efficiency, and potential to benefit from market trends or (state and federal) government programs, LGI Homes is an attractive investment for anyone looking to gain exposure in the homebuilding sector. Like any investment, there are risks to consider, such as the impact of broader economic conditions, interest rates, and potential policy changes that affect the housing market. That said, Freddie Mac estimates that we’re nearly 4 million homes short of meeting demand.
Conclusion
Having LGI Homes as part of an investment portfolio could prove to be a prudent financial decision for investors looking for stability and growth. The company’s strong financials, its focus on affordable and move-in-ready housing, and its ability to adapt to market changes make it well-equipped to thrive, even in tough conditions. With a track record of consistent profitability and solid strategies in place to navigate an unpredictable market, LGI Homes offers a reliable option for investors interested in the affordable housing space. While it’s important for potential investors to do their homework and know their personal risk tolerance, LGI Homes is certainly a company worth considering an investment in.
TESLA tags my Target 2 price objectiveTracking Tesla is an exhilarating experience, thanks to its significant price fluctuations, the attention it garners, and the charismatic presence of Elon Musk. The momentum of this electric vehicle powerhouse seems unstoppable.
This year has truly been a wild ride for Tesla! It started with a dramatic 30% drop in stock value during the first quarter, fueled by worries about falling revenues and challenges with vehicle profit margins. This was Tesla's toughest quarter since late 2022. However, as we look at the current situation, the company's financial and operational performance is on the upswing. The enthusiasm and optimism surrounding this stock are off the charts.
Fortunately, we successfully capitalized on the two major movements from the peak of the previous cycle in 2021, leading us to the current extraordinary surge (or perhaps more fittingly, a "Marsshot!") that both the stock and Elon are experiencing.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/18/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
NASDAQ: Bullish until March 2025.Nasdaq is overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.532, MACD = 396.420, ADX = 56.355) and is about to do the same on the 1W as well (RSI = 69.424). This is because the Bull Cycle is on full extent. However, in anticipation of Q1 2025, we are entering the final phase of the Cycle. This is a Top sequence that we've seen three time before in the last 10 years. The early signal for this is when the 3W RSI forms overbought (RSI > 70.000) LH. Each time that happened, the index had a sharp drop to at least the 3W MA50. TP = 19,000 could be an early target.
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