NASDAQ How to trade this Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is trading inside a Falling Wedge for exactly 1 month, since the December 16th 2024 High.
The current bullish wave has been rejected on its top but today is holding the MA50 (4h) so far.
The previous bearish waves that got rejected on the Wedge's top, gave a confirmed sell signal after the MA50 (4h) was crossed.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 (4h) and Channel Up (bullish wave).
2. Buy above the top (Falling Resistance) of the Falling Wedge.
Targets:
1. 20600 (symmetric higher lows trendline like January 2nd).
2. 21700 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading above its MA trendline. This favors slightly the bullish trend.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Nasdaq
EUR/USD : Approaching Critical Demand Zones! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #EURUSD chart in the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price has currently reached a very important demand zone, and the probability of a price reversal from this level is high! However, note that I personally have another scenario in mind, which is that after an initial short-term rise in the current area, the price will decline again to the very important demand zone of 1.005 to 1.007 , and then, with a suitable trigger in this area, we can look for an attractive BUY position !
All key levels and important zones have been marked on the chart! If you have any questions, be sure to ask, and I will try to respond as soon as possible!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
! REALLY NOT SURE ABOUT THIS ONE ! GBPJPY FALLINGSince there are no indicators except for the RSI, it would seem logical with the current drawdown and divergence for the price to keep falling ;
however there's nothing sure about this, it is just an arrow showing the potential direction,
we'll update if we get more info
AUDJPY GOING DOWNWe almost had the first part (you can take a look at the blue arrow on the 3rd of January), and it indeed reached the exact price we wanted it to (red dotted line)
However it has come back up since then, which shows that there's still a high buying volume for this asset.
But at some point, it is to come down and break the first red to reach the second lower red.
We made two possibilities for you to get the scheme.
EURUSD GOING UPLow RSI + two consecutive accumulation areas means EURUSD going up ;
however the question is after this small rally, what s happening ?
That s the 1000$ question, the two yellow lines you see on the chart show that none of these schemes is more likely than the other one, we simply have no idea for now.
We'll have to wait for new elements and KL to determine that.
USDCHF TOWARDS THE SKYThere's not a lot of indications for this one, since there's no accumulation to reach.
However the low and divergent RSI gives us an idea of where the price is globally going, which is up.
Will add more information asap, when a new interesting KL or AA (accumulation area) gets created.
CHFJPY STILL NOT SUREOn one hand, it has de go back up to reach the high of the blue rectangle ;
on the other hand, it is well gone for a big descent, and it would not be crazy to think the hard blue KL is the actual low.
We'll have to be careful over the next few days because they'll be decisive regarding the pattern the curb is taking.
No matter what happens, it is to go up, the question is where s the entry ?
GBPUSD BACK UPAfter a liquidation by going that low, GBPUSD is ready to go back up.
The two blue accumulation areas attract the price higher, first at the middle zone then at the higher zone.
The hard blue KL under the current price shows a break under this level is tough to imagine, so there's really only one way and it is up.
8 Tips to Optimize Your Tradingview for Clarity & PerformanceIn this video I share 8 ways to optimize your Tradingview for improve your performance.
Most people focus on strategy, but that is only a piece of successful trading. What I would argue is even more important....is your ability to execute.
Better execution is a result of - repetition, clarity, understanding
The things in this video will help you with clarity.
People make the comparison to trading and gambling all the time, for good reason.
But let me ask you this...
Have you ever taken a moment to look at your tradingview workspace and see how it's like walking through a virtual casino?
Think about it...
You have thousands of assets to choose from (machines & tables)
You have people with their ideas and chatter (forums, ideas, chats)
You also have sounds and stimulation everywhere (notifications, alarms)
This is not bad! But it's something to be mindful of as you design your work environment for execution.
We want to improve clarity, and simplicity. We want to eliminate as much noise as possible to improve your ability to focus on the task at hand, which is to execute your strategy.
Here are 8 tips to improve your performance:
(yes some of these are generic but they make a huge difference)
Turn off the Gain%, Change, Vol, and Last on your asset sidebar
On the same side bar, drag the news section down to the bottom so it's not visible anymore
Change the color of your candles to soft more soothing colors ( google search calming colors )
Turn off notifications so you don't get hit with other trader's ideas while you're trading
Use anchor text notes to put your plan for each asset right on the chart so you don't deviate
Remove news event from the bottom of your charts, reduces clutter (personal preference)
Create templates for each step in your analysis process
I realize now that there were only 7 not 8, but I recorded the video so it's too late to go back now lol.
I hope this helps you on your journey!
I'd love to know what helps you with clarity, and getting in flow state while you trade.
👇 Share in the comments below
-Gio
GOLD MICRO ANALYSISAnd this is what the micro view looks like. If you've not seen our precedent post on the macro view, you should check it out so you get the global scheme of the move.
The red line has to be reached at some point over the next few weeks, maybe even days, because Gold has a "desert area" to cross : this is the area where there's no blue lines, which are basic KL.
What we believe is that when there 's no or not enought KL, the price moves way faster, hence the green drawing.
GOLD GLOBAL VIEWThis is what it looks like for us : a huge rally where the price is to reach at least 2780 pretty soon.
Look at our next post to get the micro view and the daily signal.
The idea is to compensate the green top area, which acts like a super KL, making the price come back to such high levels.
On the other hand, since the economy in the US seems to get more and more stable, the Gold Index should not grow that much on the next few years, only in case of a major event.
Which is why you can observe the red dotted line going back to the ground, to another super KL.
NASDAQ GOING UPAfter a some fake rallies, some fails and some real good forecasts, we're back with more energy and more confidence to try and offer you all the best signals.
The red dotted line that you see at the top is the price we're aiming for. As you can see yesterday's forecast (green drawing) was a little late but eventually pretty good.
We believe that US100 has to climb back to 22K asap to compensate for the US firms on a national level, and to compensate with the blue areas on the chart on a technical levels, which are super key levels supposed to hit again.
Anything is possible at and after 2:30 PM (London time), but keep in mind that there are more prices to reach above than below
NQ LongEntry Point: Price is reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, with the potential to buy near 20,865.75.
Stop Loss: Set just below the 0.79 Fibonacci level, around 20,690.00.
Take Profit: Targeting a move towards the 0.0 Fibonacci extension around 21,371.25 (blue rectangle area).
Analysis:
The market has experienced a retracement, reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This could act as a support zone for a possible upward move.
The price action suggests a strong potential for a rebound as it aligns with a previous high.
This trade setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the potential for significant upside towards the 0.0 Fibonacci extension.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ closed higher, digesting the release of the CPI data. On the weekly chart, it faced resistance at the 5-week moving average, forming an upper wick. After a downtrend early this week, the market rebounded significantly. On the daily chart, the index rose to around the 20-day moving average but has yet to see the MACD cross above the signal line, making it premature to confirm a buying signal. Even if the uptrend continues, it would be prudent to wait for a golden cross in the MACD before committing to a buy position. Moreover, there is significant resistance from prior supply zones, making a sell strategy around higher levels valid.
On the 240-minute chart, as mentioned previously, a failed dead cross led to a rebound, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The MACD is trending upwards and diverging from the signal line. However, since the signal line is still below the zero line, a sideways consolidation phase may be necessary before a sustained move higher. Today, it is advisable to focus on range-bound trading within a box, managing risks carefully with sell strategies at higher levels.
OIL
Crude oil closed higher as it absorbed inventory data and the pipeline shutdown news. On the daily chart, it found support at the 5-day moving average and broke strongly above $78 (March futures), the upper boundary of the monthly chart. However, the sharp upward move has created significant gaps between the moving averages, suggesting the potential for a corrective phase today.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has triggered a sharp rise, but the MACD has not yet surpassed its previous high. A failure to rally further could create bearish divergence. A significant correction and support at previous resistance levels, such as the $74–$75 range, could present a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, profit-taking may dominate as the market digests the recent rally. A box range approach with buy strategies on dips and sell strategies at higher levels is recommended.
GOLD
Gold closed higher after digesting the CPI data. On the daily chart, both the MACD and the signal line have moved above the zero line, signaling a confirmed buy trend. Further upside is expected, as it has also broken above the resistance line of a triangular consolidation pattern. A buy-focused strategy remains valid.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal preceded continued gains. Should the MACD and signal line diverge further, this would increase confidence in the uptrend. Even if gold consolidates instead of continuing to rally, the signal line above the zero line indicates a neutral-to-positive outlook. Considering that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is showing signs of peaking and pulling back, gold’s strong upward trend is worth monitoring closely. As numerous data releases are expected today, stay cautious and trade wisely.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21325 / 21270 / 21190 / 21140
-Sell: 21440 / 21500 / 21550 / 21590
Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures)
-Buy: 78.10 / 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.30
-Sell: 79.70 / 80.10 / 80.80 / 81.30
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2717 / 2709 / 2700 / 2696 / 2690
-Sell: 2726 / 2732 / 2738 / 2745 / 2754
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
Change in market theme. Bullish Variables in Favor:
+2 rate cuts probabilities now above the 0 rate cuts. 3 rate cuts 100% increase. Reversal in trend from Jan 13
+TLT has breakout the downtrend coming from DEC, correlated too with the US10Y failing to break 2024 Highs.
+PPI lower than expected 0.2 vs 0.4 m/m
+CPI 2.9 as expected / Core lower 0.2 vs 0.3
+Risk On Assets Turning, Total2 ( Crypto marketcap excludingBTC) is up 15% from Jan 13
+Risky sectors outperfoming ARKK.
+Vix -30% from Jan 13
+DT possesion on Monday 20
Techinal variables:
+ Failed breakdonw in market indexes levels Cat 8-9
+ RSI at 30 in the 4h plus cross of the MA, positive.
+ Squeeze momentum to the downside over, near 0
+Reclaim above of the monthly vwap on QQQ-SPY
Still in look:
+Downtrendline coming from DEC ATH, Market testing now
+Retail sales tomorrow
In my case because I'm long from yesterday it will be easier to hold into tomorrow, but for a position opened today I'm less sure. Because of the retail sales and the trendline, can be normal to have a pullback, and pick momentum on friday into monday.
Nasdaq composite index projected to reach previous peak To put it simple:
1. Change of Administration together with future Economic Policy and Priorities
1. Monday the 20th D.Trump is going to be inaugurated at the President of the USA. What we have learned from his election is that he is Nationalist (for his country only) and he is very close with Elon Musk. Therefore we can assume he is obligated to act accordingly to benefit these Tech and Crypto elites.
Currently the state of California is burning. Company headquarters in the valley are burning and Trump is obligated to be the hero t save them a with quick and cheap bailout money thus inject money into the market.
2. Technical Analysis
Ever since Nasdaq reach its peak during election week it has since retraced its value back to the initial price breakout forming a descending triangle with a support around the 21 100 /21 200 denomination. Using the total length of the triangle we have calculated a 1600 point move (3/4%) to the upside.
Remember this is not advise rather an objective opinion
Trade responsibility
Thursday, thirsty for profit on Nasdaq, 25.01.16Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
Key Levels and Monday’s Recap
Chart:
As mentioned in both Monday’s and Friday’s briefings, the importance of the 20207 level was highlighted. After breaking above this level, the NASDAQ rallied by approximately 245 points.
The breakout above this major zone was followed by a pullback, confirming its significance.
March Futures Contract Analysis
Chart:
The March futures contract closed above the Ichimoku Cloud and formed a strong bullish candle. However, it finished near the 20 EMA, with the opening price currently sitting at the 20 EMA level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Maintaining support above the 20 EMA is crucial.
Resistance: The next critical level is 21455 (red horizontal line), which corresponds to the January 8, 2025, high following the long bearish candle on January 7.
Breakout Potential: If the 21455 resistance is broken, there’s potential for a strong rally, similar to the January 7 bearish candle's range.
Perpetual Futures Contract Analysis
Chart:
For the perpetual futures contract, the 20 EMA is currently at 21355.
Support: If the price remains above 21355, the next target is 21455, as highlighted earlier.
Resistance: Breaking 21455 could lead to further upside momentum.
Today’s Trading Strategy
Chart:
Buy Strategy:
Entry 1: Breakout above the blue box high at 21455.
Rationale: A major resistance breakout on the daily chart + breakout above the January 15, 2025, high.
Entry 2: Breakout above the blue resistance trendline within the orange box, approximately at 21588.
Rationale: This level represents the resistance zone following the long bearish candle, where dead-cat bounces previously faced resistance.
Sell Strategy:
Entry 1: Break below the blue ascending trendline.
Rationale: If the short-term support trendline from January 14–15 weakens and breaks, it indicates diminishing bullish momentum, making it a good short opportunity.
Entry 2: Break below the 21186 support zone.
Rationale: The 21123–20800 range is a strong support frame. If 21186 is broken, a test of the lower support near 21123 is highly likely.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is at a critical juncture, with key resistance and support levels coming into play:
For Buyers: Look for breakouts above 21455 and 21588 for opportunities to ride the bullish momentum.
For Sellers: Monitor breakdowns below the ascending trendline and 21186 for downside opportunities.
The market remains dynamic, so stay disciplined and trade wisely. 🚀
US100 NASDAQ SHORTThe US dollar is broadly firmer, though the Japanese yen is proving a resilient ahead of the BOJ deputy governor's speech
Nasdaq slide as key tech stocks get hit
All three benchmarks are down for the last two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage
With the 10-year yield potentially getting to 5%, it’s going to be very hard for the equity market to really gain any meaningful traction here until there’s — at minimum — stability in interest rates
Interest rates rise? iN 2025 it will be possible:Inflation, signs of recession.
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level.
However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend.
With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
USNAS100 /Market Awaits Inflation Data and Bank EarningsFutures Steady Amid Caution Ahead of Bank Earnings and Key Inflation Data
USNAS100 Technical Analysis
The USNAS100 is expected to experience heightened volatility as traders anticipate the upcoming bank earnings reports and the release of key inflation data. The CPI is forecasted at 2.9%, up from the previous 2.7%.
If the CPI exceeds 2.9%, bearish pressure is likely, with the index potentially dropping to 20670 and 20550.
Conversely, if the CPI is below 2.7% or 2.8%, bullish momentum could push the price up to 21215.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20860
Resistance Levels: 20990, 20150, 20220
Support Levels: 20780, 20670, 20550
Trend Outlook
Bearish while trading below 20990.