Nasdaq
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
CAPE Ratio > Shiller P/E RatioThe Shiller P/E Ratio helps investors understand whether the stock market as a whole is overvalued or undervalued. It is calculated as the current price divided by the average inflation-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the past 10 years.
We are currently in one of the most overvalued stock markets, with the Shiller P/E Ratio at 32.61, a level not seen since the late 1990s. During the dot-com rally of tech stocks in the US, the Shiller P/E Ratio reached 44.19. At that time, this high ratio suggested that the market was in a bubble. Are we now in an AI bubble?
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way.
After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap.
MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone.
Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports.
By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August.
This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780.
Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
Nasdaq - Very weak start of the stock market in September!The US100 is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel
The index has reached the target of the downward movement of its previous analysis, and you can save a part of your sales position and place your SL in profit
If the index continues to decline towards the specified demand zone, which also intersects with the midline of the descending channel, we can look for buying positions for the Nasdaq index
An upward price correction of the index will provide us with new sales position with a suitable risk reward
USNAS100 /ADP, ISM affect with bullish volume till 19160 THEN...Nasdaq Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq price has stabilized below the pivot line at 18920, signaling a bearish trend, but there is a consolidation zone between 18915 and 19160 will make the price tries to test the 1910 level again, In general stability above 19160 will be an uptrend till 19430, and stability under 18915 will support falling to get 18760 and 18420
Key levels:
Pivot line: 18920
Resistance Lines: 19020, 19185, 19390
Support lines: 18760, 18560, 18420
Range movement will be between 19160 and 18420
The economic reports data Today will impact the NASDAQ market
Trend: Bearish, as long as the price remains below 18920.
Nas100- Lower top in place?In early August, the NAS100 broke below the support line of a channel that had kept the tech-heavy index elevated for nearly a year.
However, after reaching the horizontal support zone around the 17,000 level, the price quickly rebounded and returned to the key 20,000 area. Despite this recovery, the bulls couldn’t maintain momentum, and two days ago, the index once again dropped below the trendline.
These movements suggest signs of weakness, and a further correction may be on the horizon.
I’m looking to sell into rallies around the 19,200-19,300 zone, with a target at the recent low above 17,000.
Rotation - Growth Stocks > Value Stocks Growth Stocks:
Growth stocks are shares in companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies in the market. These companies typically reinvest their earnings to accelerate growth in the short term rather than paying dividends.
Value Stocks:
Value stocks are shares in companies that appear to be undervalued by the market. These companies typically have stable earnings and often pay dividends. They are often found in more established industries like finance or utilities.
In different economic conditions, one type may outperform the other, leading to rotations between growth and value in the market cycle.
Analysis:
The stock market is currently experiencing a unique situation where major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are setting new highs, but this growth is primarily driven by a small number of large tech companies (the "Magnificent 7"). This has led to a significant divergence between growth and value stocks, with growth stocks outperforming.
QQQ in correction - How low will it go?QQQ lost the 20 day SMA yesterday. History shows that there is a very strong probability that it will go lower. Today say it hold at the support of the AI-based rally over the last year or so. It broke through that the other week, but then we say the strong rally. I noted back then that it felt like a dead cat bounce counter rally to me. Looks like it is proving to be true. It is going to be tricky knowing where this one will stop. I previous posts I noted that red trend line a critical level and that is where we saw the dramatic bounce start from. I am sure where this one will stop. QQQ is usually very bullish and the second of two corrections can often be less than that first. I am looking at that red trend line again, the 200 day SMA, as well as the center of the trading channel.
NASDAQ won't correct again in 2024It has been almost 1 year (October 24 2023, see chart below) when we called for a mega buy opportunity on Nasdaq's (NDX) last bottom:
As you can see, the index started an insane rally sequence right on that weekly candle and didn't correct again that much before the recent July - August 2024 pull-back.
The gains from that bottom buy signal have been almost +50% and as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was tested on the early August Low and held, we expect Nasdaq to resume and maintain the steady bullish trend for the rest of the year.
The next Target before it gives a medium-term correction again in our opinion is 22500, which is exactly on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the October 2022 market bottom.
The reason we project this target is because, as you can see on our October 2023 analysis above, we find remarkable similarities between the 2022 Inflation Crisis correction and the 2008 Housing Crisis.
This is what helped us give the mega buy signal in October, because the price formed a 1W MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross, the first since February 2010 and the correction was contained above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. So with the 1.236 Fib already achieved during the current (blue) Channel Up (see how both recovery sequences take place within Channel Up patterns), the next in line is the 1.618 Fib at 22500.
According to all the above, the next time that Nasdaq could correct might be early in 2025.
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Alpha Ai Reversal: A High-Performance Strategy with 412% ReturnsKey Highlights: NASDAQ:NDAQ
Net Profit:
A solid $82,516.99 USD profit , reflecting a gain of 412.58%. This showcases the strategy's ability to multiply capital impressively over time.
Total Closed Trades:
157 trades have been completed, indicating a good amount of market engagement, providing ample data to gauge the strategy's reliability.
Percent Profitable:
A high success rate, with 79.62% of trades closing in profit . This means nearly 8 out of 10 trades are winners, a confidence booster for any trader!
Profit Factor:
A profit factor of 3.296 indicates that for every dollar lost, the strategy earned over three dollars. This is a strong indicator of risk/reward management.
Max Drawdown:
The maximum observed drawdown was $13,564.86 USD, or 50.61%. While this is on the higher side, suggesting periods of significant losses, the overall profitability more than compensates for this.
Average Trade:
The average trade brought in $525.59 USD, representing a 1.14% gain per trade. This consistent performance adds up over time, as seen in the cumulative profits.
Average Number of Bars in Trades:
Each trade lasted an average of 17 bars. Given the 8-hour timeframe, this means trades were typically held for about 5-6 days, balancing between quick profits and sustained positions.
The strategy seems well-calibrated for traders looking for high probability setups with significant profit potential. The strong profit factor and percentage profitability are particularly appealing, suggesting a strategy that can consistently outperform the market, even if the drawdowns require a strong stomach.
For those willing to ride out the occasional rough patch, the Alpha Ai Reversal strategy offers a compelling balance of risk and reward, promising attractive returns in the long haul. This strategy could be a game-changer !
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Important Bearish Signal
US500 was consolidating for quite a long period of time around
the level of a current all-time high and formed a range.
After the release of the yesterday's US fundamentals, the Index dropped
and formed a high momentum bearish candle.
A daily candle closed below a support of the range, confirming its violation.
We can expect a bearish continuation lower now.
Next support - 5432
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Nasdaq - Here we finally go!TVC:NDQ is finally rejecting the resistance and creating the anticipated bearish correction.
Let me just put it that way: The correction was 100% anticipated and you can definitely then trade accordingly. Just a couple of weeks ago the Nasdaq retested a resistance which has been pushing price lower for 14 years - a correction was very likely. So far the Nasdaq is dropping significantly but I don't think that the current correction will actually be over soon...
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
If NVDA falls, How far will it Retrace?? - NVDAHere I have NVDA on the 4 Hr Chart!
Price on NVDA is showing exhaustion in the $126.83 - $133.75 Range, just shy of the Previous Highs in June & July.
This Range is based off the Beginning of what seems to be an Elliot Correction Wave from the Lower Low @ $90.69 followed by our High (Point A) @ $108.8 then our Higher Low (Violation of Structure - Point B) @ $97.53.
Confirmation of Wave comes once Price Broke Point A to Push Higher to Point C where it stalls now!
Now, using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool, we can see that if $130 stands to be our new Higher High, price should be looking to make a Higher Low by Retracing to the Fib Entry Zone between $119.19 - $113.77!
-Once Price confirms the Correction Wave, we see the RSI cross Above 50
-Price is now trading Above 200 EMA
*AREA OF CAUTION*
-Price created quite a Price Gap between $110 - $112 so we could possibly see price make a another 38.2% retracement to Fill The Gap before moving Higher!!
Earnings & Revenue Due Wednesday Aug. 28th.
Technical Review–Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC)
As investors loom over the slowdown in the US market, the Dow Jones had tumbled close to 500 points in a single trading day. With this, our key stock pick, Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) sees selling pressure, however a strong support was formed around $1.570 key support level (S1). We believe this selling is short term in nature, and both RSI and MACD showed a trade divergence where there is actually accumulation exercise in place for the shares of ATPC in the range of $1.570 ~ $1.800.
We had commenced accumulation around $1.600 level.