Nasdaq
NASDAQ: 4H MA50 broke. Time for a full recovery.Nasdaq is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.669, MACD = -426.120, ADX = 56.837) but crossed above its 4H MA50. The last time a bearish wave of this Channel Down crossed above the 4H MA50 was on August 9th 2024. It was achieved again after an oversold 1D RSI bounce and initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then peaked on the 1.382 Fib extension. The trade is long, TP1 = 21,500 and TP2 = 23,400.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Microsoft (MSFT): The "Can’t Go Wrong" Stock... Until It DoesAh, Microsoft—the tech titan that could probably survive a meteor impact. 🌍☄️ With a market cap so large it could buy entire countries and still have spare change for a few yachts, MSFT is the stock that everyone loves... even when it’s overvalued. But hey, let’s take a look at the "genius" behind the current price action. 🔍💰
📊 The Almighty Stock Performance (Because Fundamentals Don’t Matter Anymore?)
📉 Price: $385.76 (up a whole 0.00584%! Call the champagne guy! 🍾)
📊 Intraday High: $387.88
📉 Intraday Low: $383.27 (because even Microsoft has bad days, right? 😅)
🔮 200-day moving average: $423.98 (oh look, it's trading below that... bearish much? 🐻)
So, let me get this straight. MSFT is 7.80% down year-to-date, but analysts are still screaming “BUY! 🚀.” Sure, because blindly trusting price targets has always worked out well for retail investors. 🤑
💰 Valuation: Overpriced? Who Cares, It’s Microsoft!
📢 Intrinsic Value Estimate: $316.34
😬 Current Price: $385.76
💰 Overvaluation? About 18%
But let’s be honest—does valuation even matter anymore? If people are throwing money at meme coins, why not pay a premium for MSFT? 🤷♂️ It’s basically a subscription service at this point—you pay every month, and the stock just keeps draining your wallet. 💸
🤖 AI Goldmine or Just Another Buzzword?
Microsoft has been riding the AI hype train harder than a teenager with ChatGPT. 🚂💨 Their enterprise AI growth is over 100%, and they’re pulling in a $13 billion annual run rate from AI services. But sure, let’s pretend that no one remembers the last time “the next big thing” crashed and burned. (cough dot-com bubble cough). 💀💾
Evercore analysts claim MSFT will dominate AI for enterprises. Well, duh. If you’re an enterprise and don’t buy Microsoft AI services, Satya Nadella himself might show up at your office and force you to install Windows 11. 🏢💻
📉 Risk Factors? No Way! MSFT is Invincible... Right?
🦅 Hawkish Fed = Potential Market Sell-Off (But don’t worry, just HODL, right? 🤡)
🚀 Tech Bubble Concerns (Microsoft will totally be the exception… like every overhyped stock before it. 😬)
🧐 Overvaluation? Pfft, who cares? (People said the same about Tesla at $400. Look how that turned out. 🪦)
📢 Analyst Hot Takes (Because They’re Always Right 😂)
📊 D.A. Davidson: Upgraded to Buy with a price target of $450. (Ah yes, let’s just throw numbers out there. Why not $500? $600? 🚀)
🔮 UBS: Predicts $3,200 for gold, but Microsoft will somehow go even higher. (Probably. Because… reasons. 🤷♂️)
🎭 Final Thoughts: Buy? Sell? Just Panic?
Microsoft is basically the “safe” tech stock everyone clings to while pretending that the market isn’t built on dreams and overleveraged hedge funds. 🏦💰 If you believe in the power of monopolies, overpriced AI services, and analysts pulling price targets out of thin air, then MSFT is your golden ticket. 🎟️💎
Otherwise, maybe—just maybe—waiting for a dip below fair value isn’t the worst idea in the world. But what do I know? I’m just some guy on the internet. 🤷♂️
🚀💸 Good luck, traders. You’ll need it. 😈📉
💬 What do you think? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
NASDAQ 100: Moon Mission or Reality Check? Ah, the NASDAQ 100—our favorite rollercoaster 🎢 where tech dreams are either made ✨ or brutally crushed 😵💫. Right now, it’s hovering around 19,500, and traders are debating: "Is this the launchpad to new highs or just a dead-cat bounce in disguise?" 🐱💀
Let’s break it down 👇
🚀 The Bullish Hopefuls: "We're Going to Valhalla, Boys!"
✅ Rebound Mode ON 🎯: After a nasty selloff, the market has found some footing and is showing signs of recovery 📈. Maybe the worst is over? (Yeah, sure, we've heard that before... 🙃)
✅ Fed to the Rescue? 🏦: With the FOMC meeting on deck, traders are hoping for some dovish magic dust ✨ to send tech stocks flying again. Because why rely on solid fundamentals when you have the Fed, right? 🤡
😨 The Bearish Doom-Sayers: "Brace for Impact!"
❌ Big Tech = Too Crowded 🚶♂️🚶♂️🚶♂️🚶♂️: Asset managers are side-eyeing Big Tech, calling it "overcrowded" 🙄. Translation? Expect a nasty rug pull soon.
❌ Healthy Correction... or the Start of Something Worse? 🚑: The S&P 500 dropped 10%, the NASDAQ fell 11%, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is calling it a "healthy correction" 🤡. Yeah, just like how falling down the stairs is a “healthy adjustment” for your spine.
🤔 The Fence-Sitters: "We're Just Watching the Chaos 🍿"
🔮 Multiple Futures Await 🔮: Analysts are juggling four possible scenarios for the NASDAQ—ranging from "moon mission" 🚀 to "welcome to the abyss" 🕳️. Basically, flip a coin.
So... Where Are We Headed? 🤷♂️
Are we strapping in for another ride to the stratosphere 🚀, or is this just a perfectly orchestrated bull trap 🐂🔫? Either way, buckle up, folks—volatility is the only guarantee 🎢😵💫.
💬 What do you think? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
(Disclaimer: This isn't financial advice. Do your own research before yeeting into the market. 🚀📉)
Emergence of Bear Flag in Nasdaq The price action seems to be suggesting the formation of Bear Flag Pattern.
The price fell steeply and then gave a pullback, which is getting sold into.
As the channel of flag breaks downwards, the fall may gain momentum.
Further price action will confirm or negate the pattern, it may move cleanly or will have whipsaws.
If the price starts consolidating for long here, rather than breaking downwards, the pattern may fail.
Trade Safe
Nasdaq Intraday TradeWith the overnight GAP, price jumped above the white Centerline, just to come back in the Asia session.
We see that price broke the white CL and halted afterwards. Do yo see where it halted? Yes, at the Centerline of the yellow Momentum Fork!
And currently it's pushing up through the white CL again...hmmm...
So, we have momentum, clear support at the yellow CL, a potential new push through the white CL and a loooooot of Air...and stop/losses above to be sucked in §8-)
I'm long with a stop below the yellow CL low, and with multiple targets to the upside.
Let's have fun!
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Pullback From Resistance
Dow Jones Index looks bearish after a test of a key daily/intraday resistance.
An inverted cup & handle pattern on that on an hourly and a strong
intraday bearish momentum this morning leaves clear bearish clues.
I think that the market can retrace at least to 41580 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025
📈19850 19940
📉19670 19570
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
XAU/USD: Another ATH (All Time High) Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart in the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has finally made its big move, just as we predicted! After a correction to $2905, demand increased, pushing the price up by over 400 pips to $2949.
Currently, gold is trading around $2940, and there are two key scenarios:
1️⃣ Holding support at $2940, leading to a rise above $2950 as the first target.
2️⃣ Breaking below $2940 and stabilizing under it, which could trigger a further correction to $2923.
This analysis will be more complete with your support, and more details will be added soon!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
NASDAQ Most critical 4H MA50 test in 7 months!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 11 2024 High. The price action since the February 18 2025 High was been the patterns Bearish Leg and like the August 05 2024 bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line, it was done on an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI.
Now that the price has Double Bottomed and bounced, it came across today with a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. 7 months ago it was that test and eventual break-out that initiated Nasdaq's 4-month non-stop rise. Initially once broken, the first target was just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, you can get a confirmed buy signal once the index closes above the 4H MA50 and target 21450 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
stocks vs gold race to recession safety since fed did its last rate cut in december 2024 fomc, Stocks down gold up
this is classic recession trade - dump risk assets and buy safe heaven
gold hit $3000 on recession panic market crash
if stocks bounce, panic may price out
if stocks fall more, panic selling will trigger which could slow the speed of gold rally
this market action and recent gold bars flying to New York from london may be recession panic buying not the tariff inflation hedge
in 2020 market crash everything went down but when recovery started gold proved better than stocks.
Breaking: $SAIC Surged 6% In Premarket Amidst Q4 ReportsScience Applications International Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SAIC ) surged 6% in premarket trading on Monday amidst Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2025 Results.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Highlights
Q4 FY25 revenues of $1.84 billion, 5.8% organic growth(1); FY25 revenues of $7.48 billion, 3.1% organic growth(1); organic growth adjusted for divestitures
Q4 FY25 net income of $98 million, adjusted EBITDA(1) of $177 million or 9.6% of revenue; FY25 net income of $362 million, adjusted EBITDA(1) of $710 million or 9.5% of revenue.
Q4 FY25 diluted earnings per share of $2.00, adjusted diluted earnings per share(1) of $2.57; FY25 diluted earnings per share of $7.17, adjusted diluted earnings per share(1) of $9.13.
Q4 FY25 cash flows provided by operating activities of $115 million, free cash flow(1) and transaction-adjusted free cash flow(1) of $236 million; FY25 cash flows provided by operating activities of $494 million, free cash flow(1) of $499 million, transaction-adjusted free cash flow(1) of $507 million.
Q4 FY25 net bookings of $1.3 billion; book-to-bill ratio of 0.7; trailing twelve months book-to-bill ratio of 0.9
FY26 guidance introduced above prior targets for revenues, adjusted EBITDA(1), adjusted EBITDA margin(1), and adjusted diluted EPS(1).
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:SAIC stock is up 6% in Monday's premarket trading, with the asset closing Friday's session with an RSI of 47 giving the stock more room to capitalize on this medium momentum to surge to new highs and possibly break the 1-month high pivot.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 Year-End Price Target and Technical Rebound SetupIf you haven`t bought the previous oversold area on QQQ:
Now the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ), which tracks the performance of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq, has recently entered oversold territory, suggesting that a technical rebound may be imminent. Similar to the Russell 2000, QQQ has experienced significant selling pressure, driving key technical indicators into oversold zones and creating favorable conditions for a bounce.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 30, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and the potential for a reversal. Additionally, QQQ is trading near key support levels, with a large portion of its components underperforming their 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a classic setup for a mean reversion rally.
From a historical perspective, QQQ has shown a tendency to rebound strongly after similar oversold conditions, particularly when macroeconomic factors stabilize and buying pressure returns. Given the current technical setup, my price target for QQQ is $550 by the end of the year. This represents a recovery of approximately 8-10% from current levels, aligning with previous post-oversold rallies in the index.
While downside risks remain — including potential volatility around Federal Reserve policy and broader economic data — the technical backdrop suggests that QQQ is well-positioned for a recovery in the coming months.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19140 - 20500
bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
DIA ETF, just wait a little more to buy!European investors pulled money from U.S. equity ETFs in February for the first time since May 2023, showing a stark contrast with their American counterparts.
U.S. equity ETFs based in Europe recorded $514.7 million in outflows during February, according to Morningstar Direct data. This reversal came despite an increase in overall European ETF inflows to $35.3 billion during the same period.
finance.yahoo.com
Nas100 1. Market Structure & Context
The market has been in a bullish uptrend within a rising channel (trendlines).
A "Diagonal Expecting" zone suggests a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
A "Trend Trap" indicates a possible liquidity grab before a major move.
2. ICT Concepts Applied
Liquidity Grab & Manipulation:
The market may have engineered liquidity above the previous highs before the sell-off.
The "Sell Off" label suggests Smart Money could be distributing positions at the premium levels.
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
If the price breaks the trend trap zone with conviction, it signals a shift from bullish to bearish order flow.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Price Targets:
The first take-profit level at 16,529.9 aligns with an area where liquidity might rest.
The final target at 14,125.1 suggests price filling an imbalance or mitigating an order block (OB) at a lower timeframe.
3. Expected Move
Potential Short-Term Rebound:
A small retracement could occur before the major drop (blue projection).
Overall Bearish Expectation:
A strong downward move into lower levels where Smart Money may reaccumulate positions.
Conclusion
This chart is anticipating a significant bearish move after a liquidity grab at highs, with take-profit zones aligning with ICT principles like FVG fills and order block mitigation. If the market respects these areas, traders could look for confirmation (e.g., displacement, breaker structures) to enter short positions.