Nasdaq Composite: Worst Session Since Late 2022Nasdaq Composite: Worst Session Since Late 2022
As indicated by the Nasdaq Composite chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), yesterday's decline was -2.62% in a single session.
Thus, tech stocks experienced the sharpest drop since late 2022, with around 75% of companies in the Nasdaq Composite index closing in the red.
Alphabet (GOOG) shares, the parent company of Google, fell by 4.9% due to higher-than-expected AI expenses and disappointing YouTube advertising revenues.
Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped by 12% due to a 7% decline in automotive revenue, missed earnings, and delays in the Robotaxi project.
Chipmaker stocks also suffered losses.
What is the reason for the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) price decline?
According to Business Insider, renowned Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni believes that:
→ Major market players started exiting tech stocks on July 11, as news of low inflation motivated them to rotate and shift capital into stocks sensitive to the anticipated interest rate cuts;
→ The stock market is overbought and undergoing a minor correction.
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart provides more details:
→ The price has been in an uptrend in 2024 (shown in blue) but made a bearish reversal from the upper boundary in mid-July. This week, it aggressively moved down with wide bearish candles into the lower half of the channel;
→ The lower boundary of the channel and the support level at 18920 (in effect at the beginning of June) form a block that bulls are pinning their hopes on.
If the stock market is indeed experiencing a minor sell-off to move out of an overbought state, this support block might act as a brake and slow down the pace of the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) price decline observed this week.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 24 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5am GMT (12 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - Earnings news (Alphabet and Tesla) last night
Directional bias - SELL, because last night the Day candle closed with a red doji candle after having touched the D - 0.382 sell fib level + D EMA.
I woke up early to see what market was doing and noted a MASSIVE gap down - this confirmed my SELL bias
Entered a sell on the 15min TF at the hand icon - confirmations:
Break of the neckline of a DT that had formed on the 15min, 30min and 1H TF (TF confluence).
Mental stop was placed at half the height of the DT (marked by the thick pink line).
Price dropped beautifully.
Closed half my position at the bang icon and will watch price action to close the remaining position.
Bang icon = M - 0.382 buy fib level i.e. a strong possible reversal zone.
This will be my last post for 4 weeks, as I am going on a long summer holiday!
Feels so good to close out my trading on a nice big profit (2'968 pips so far).
Hope you caught this sell!
All the best...till next time! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq thoughts 24-07-2024Please find my NASDAQ market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
The price from the impulse was able to correct by 6% from the ATH, which could potentially lead to the beginning of growth through a 3-wave structure.
There is a fixation behind the trend line, with minimal risks you can try to buy with a short stop for a fractal. Next, we wait for the formation of a 3-wave structure and increase purchases. Goals for updating ATH.
Target 19960 - 21570
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 22 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None today but tomorrow is Alphabet and Tesla Earnings
Directional bias -
Today I am not sure what my directional bias is, because, for me, market is at a turning point.
Today I have decided to go with what the candles are telling me.
My view is that price has broken a significant Weekly support zone (marked in the thick lime green line).
I feel price will try to reach back up to re-test this area (i.e. to determine if support has turned to resistance).
If bears hold strong then price will fall significantly and if bulls can push through this zone back upwards, then we may see bulls retracing and testing the larger TF D sell fib levels.
I am surprised by the power and suddenness that bears stepped into the market. They didn't even allow bulls to retest the neckline of the D market pattern (DT), so I am really "feeling" the bearish pressure.
My plan for a buy is to enter on a DB, after a re-test of the neckline (roughly marked by the blue "W")
My plan for a sell is to enter on the break of a neckline downwards of a DT (roughly marked by the purple "M").
I am going for a month vacation starting Thursday. So I only have three days of trading left and I really want to bang out a nice profit before the holiday.
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Candle has turned red at time of writing this morning (but still forming) - wick is 10'200 pips long. Shows unbelievable bearish sentiment currently in the market.
W TF - Significant resistance level was broken down last week (marked by lime green line). This level held down 2 x week candles marked with Z. and Y.( with long wick sticking out the top). Now bears have sliced through this zone, like a hot knife through butter. The fact that this zone did not turn into support, calling more bulls to step in, indicates that bears are completely over powering the bulls. I would expect bulls to push up back to this zone to re-test (this is the break and re-test principle that Nasdaq respects most of the time). If bulls fail to push up past this lime green zone, then I foresee that market will drop significantly. The only obstacles in bears way will be the M-0.382 buy fib level and the earnings news tomorrow.
D TF - D support + D 50 EMA did hold strong. Price seems to be consolidating at this zone.
4H & 1H - Formation of a falling wedge market pattern - these tend to break upwards but can break in either direction. But in whichever way price breaks, the market pattern is about 2'600 pips in height and so we can set a profit target of the same i.e. once broken we can expect price to move 2'600 pips
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Conformations:
1. Fib - a buy fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. (the highest swing high at that point in the morning), indicated that price had reached down to the 0.618 fib level marked at C. This is a strong retracement level.
2. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend of Nasdaq i.e. the week and month TF. Also a temporary uptrend line marked in pink had formed.
3. Candles - we see long wick candle reaching down to the 0.618 buy fib level, and long wick candles reaching down to the pivot point. This indicates that bulls are strong stepping in at these zones to push price high.
4. Market pattern - we have a break of the neckline upwards at the hand icon and a break of the orange down trend line which has proved to be very strong and holding price down FIVE occasions (at D. E. F. G. and B.)
Also we have a break of the falling wedge pattern upwards
5. S&R - Day pivot point was acting as support.
I entered my buys gradually as I felt (on the smaller TF's) that the retest of the temporary downtrend orange line was held successfully by bulls.
Mental stop was placed at the pivot point. If candles started closing below this point then my buy would be invalidated.
Priced moved up well and I decided to close half when there was a strong push down by bears from the 4H EMA. This could really have been a turning point and it was also TP1 on the 1H buy fib.
For the remaining half, I secured at entry and I was really hoping that price would stay above my entry and that possibly market would shoot up on earnings news tomorrow and I would cash in!
But unfortunately, Nasdaq spiked me out and I was out at entry. If I had been at my computer, I would have re-entered because there was a nice little DB right on the pink trend line on the 5min TF.
Nonetheless, I still bagged about 1'000 pips.
A bit sad about my other half position :(
Hope you had a great day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Monthly Sell Set up ConfirmedHere I like this reversal shooting star candle on a monthly time frame where it confirmed a sell set up as of July 19, 2024 close. CME_MINI:NQ1!
Could be the beginning of a nasty crash; Black Swan Event.
Or a retracement before we continue on this bull run.
We shall see...
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 18 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - Initial Jobless Claims @ 13h30
News - Netflix Earnings
Directional bias - BUY
My trading journal didn't save all my detailed morning analysis text (#irritating) :(
So to repeat, short and sweet....
I kept my bias today as a BUY because I was of the opinion that market would retrace and test the neckline area of D market pattern.
Reason for this opinion:
1. Day DT Profit target reached (market pattern completed)
2. Seller's TP2 reached
3. The lime green thick line is a strong resistance level on the W TF and if price breaks this support, then we are in for another big drop as indicated by the purple arrow.
So I felt like price would retrace, all the way up to the sell fib levels.
I entered buy's twice, based on DB's forming and breaking necklines upwards + temporary downtrend lines broken.
Mental SL was placed at the thick pink lines.
On both occasions price moved more than 250 pips away from my entry and I was able to secure my trade at entry.
Got taken out twice at entry as price moved back down and then I lost faith that bulls could overpower the bears to at least force a deep retracement today.
So no pips for me today.
Hope you had a better day!
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Continuation of the trend, an ABC structure may form and allow the price to continue its momentum towards the level of 21000. In order not to increase the risks, it is better to consider the exit when fixing behind the lower trend line - the support level. When fixing, there may be a strong correction, then it will be necessary to understand the structure in order decisions. Globally, targets may be at the level of 21750.
Target 20415 - 21750
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 17 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my pre day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None for today - tomorrow is Netflix earnings
Directional bias - Starting to look Bearish?!
During analysis noted the following:
M - Still looking bullish, but long wick beginning to form. Wick is 4'330 pips at time of writing, body of the M candle is 5'900 pips
W - On the W TF you can see weakness in the candles. Last week's candle closed with a very long wick red doji candle. This week's candle is still forming but the weakness is evident, with price struggling to stay above the last 2 week's highest closing points - strong resistance forming on the W TF. The way that this week's candle will close will be very telling because price could just be stalling and then continue to move up (especially during earnings season), or this could be the beginning of a reversal.
D - The large red candle on the 11 July can be seen as a retracement. Price moved down to the W - 0.50 fib level and then moved up again. However, now one can see that a DT may be taking shape on the D TF. A potential neckline is visible and once price breaks below that point on the D TF (i.e. a D candle closes below the neckline), we may be in for a large move down because the profit target of the DT is +- 4'700 pips away. Yesterday's D candle closed as a hanging man candle.
Hanging man candle is a bearish reversal candle and indicates:
- sellers are beginning to outnumber the buyers
- the long bottom wick shows that sellers are pushing lower but the buyers could only push up near the candle open, meaning that there are not enough buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep price rising.
Today, in the early morning hours, we see more bears entering the market and pushing price down (at time of writing)
4H -
Trend line - a down trend is forming between B. and C. - two touches to a trend line forms the trend line. Three touches to a trend line, confirms the trend. So if you draw trend lines to wicks a trend has formed. If you draw trend lines to candle bodies (i.e. disregard the wicks and draw a trend line touching the thick part of the candle as per the yellow trend line) you will have three touches to the trend line. So I interpret this to mean that a strong temporary down trend is formed and confirmed.
Sell fibs - one can also see that the sell fibs are becoming stronger and the bulls are unable to break these zones, even after many attempts.
The 4H 0.618 sell fib kept price down on 3 attempts
The 4H 0.50 sell fib kept price down on FIVE attempts. Hence why bulls are losing momentum, they keep pushing up but bears are successfully keeping bulls down at lower and lower price levels.
S&R - yesterday price has been unable to break above and away the pivot point and today (at time of writing) the pivot point has already acted as a strong resistance (as indicated by the 2 x dice icons)
Buy fibs - buy fibs are unable to give price the momentum to move up and we can see that the D - 0.382 buy fib + D - 0.50 buy fib has been breached. This is telling because the D fib levels are strong (marked in blue).
So after this analysis, it seems my directional bias as a BUY is under threat.
I know that if I don't have my directional bias correct, then big losses are guaranteed.
I may wait today to see how the D candle closes in relation to the D market pattern that is forming (DT) and see if bears are strong enough to break the neckline down. Up until then we still have a W 0.382 buy fib level + D EMA that needs to be breached by bears and perhaps these levels are strong enough to call in more bulls.
As Trading View always says, there are three things you can do as a trader....buy, sell or wait. And I think today I might wait.
Have a great trading day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ THOUGHTS - 17-JUL-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
🐲 The Roaring FAANG. Five Big Tech Stocks That Move The MarketFAANG is an acronym that stands for five major, highly successful U.S. tech companies: Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
FAANG stocks' performance has a substantial effect on the overall market and comprises 15% of the S&P500 Index SP:SPX .
If you follow the financial or business news, you may have seen or heard the term FAANG thrown around. No, it's not a misspelling or an animal's roar. It's an acronym that stands for five big companies — some might say the big companies — in the high-tech industry.
The FAANG quintet consists of Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon , Apple, Netflix and Google (Alphabet as an official corporate name).
These corporations — all American, but with a global presence — are not only household names, they're financial behemoths. Their combined market capitalization is over $4 trillion. The blue-chip stocks of the tech sector, they collectively make up 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 SP:SPX (an index of the largest public companies in the US). So they represent not only one of the US' most significant industries, but a sizable chunk of the US stock market itself.
The origins of FAANG
FAANG actually began as FANG. The origin of the acronym has been attributed to Jim Cramer, the financial TV host and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Known for his slangy abbreviations and catchy phrases, Cramer coined the term in 2013 to represent four tech stocks with outsized market appreciation. Cramer believed that these companies belonged together because they are all high-growth stocks that share the common threads of digitization and the web.
Cramer's original term was just FANG — it didn't initially include Apple. The company joined the ranks in 2017, reflecting the growth of internet services (iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Pay) to its revenues.
So the acronym became FAANG, and it's remained so.
The five stocks of FAANG
They need no introduction: The five stocks of FAANG are all familiar brands, whose products and services permeate our lives daily. They are also American corporate success stories — each has seen its stock shares experience triple-digit growth since 2015, and year-to-year as well.
👉 Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) is the social media maestro, owner of Instagram, WhatsApp, and its Facebook website. It has returned more than 190% over the past 12 months, and it is a # 1 over all S&P500 Index components with that amazing result.
👉 Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), the sole product manufacturer of the group, with more than 36% yearly performance.
👉 Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), the world's largest e-store, has returned more than 65% over the past 12 months.
👉 Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), the superpower of streaming, has returned 44% TTM.
👉 Google — parent company Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:GOOGL ) — has a name synonymous with internet searches and services. Its GOOG shares have increased by more than 43% in 12 months.
Just to put these numbers in context: the S&P 500 has grown 17% over the past 12 months. So FAANG stocks have been at the forefront , significantly outperforming the broad market.
Twelve months performance of FX:FAANG components vs S&P500 Index
The bottom line
The main technical graph (3-day chart for FX:FAANG stock basket, introduced by @FXCM provider, with 20% inception weight for every single component) illustrates perhaps right there happens the major breakout of 52-week highs, with further projected/ targeted upside price action.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 15 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
During analysis noted the following:
M - Month candle is still in formation but very bullish, but at time of writing, the wick is 3'500 pips and the body is 8'500 pips. So still a very bullish candle indicating bullish sentiment
W - Last week's candle closed as a doji candle - could indicate that bulls are losing momentum
D - Massive gap up of 425 pips. Friday's candle closed as an inverted hammer candle (this is a bearish candle).
4H - Bears pushed down on Friday after candles touched the 0.618 Sell fib level. Doji candle possibly indicating that down trend is over.
1H - Strange looking DB (it kinda threw me off) but neckline broken upwards. I made the assumption that the DB marked in blue lines on the 1H TF was indeed a DB. I don't know if in theory it would be classified as such, but price gaped up significantly at C. and so although there is no green candle indicating price moved up, price gapped up and I took it as a DB.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Fib - price made a large DB just above the 4H - 0.50 fib level + pivot point
2. S&R - Pivot point was acting as a strong support with long candle wicks sticking out the bottom (on the 1H TF). Entered a buy when I was convinced on the 5min TF that the 4H EMA would not push price down and that price was able to successfully break & re-test the 4H EMA area.
3. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall bullish trend of Nasdaq. I keep my bias as a buy until a reversal pattern appears at least on the D TF.
4. Candlesticks - a doji candle appeared on the 1H TF at D. indicating that sellers may be losing momentum. Also the long wick sticking out of the pivot point indicate that sellers pushed down hard but bears were able to hold this area strong
5. Market pattern - DB with neckline broken upwards, as marked with the blue lines. You can also see a nice little re-test of the neckline at E.
Mental stop was place at the thick pink line, which was the 4H - 0.318 buy fib level. If candles started closing below the fib level then my buy would be invalidated.
Price action was pretty choppy and price came close to my SL area but as market opened, bulls stepped in and boosted price.
I was hoping for a sweet TP 1 at the green TP1 line, but the 4H - 0.618 fib level was too strong.
I closed half my position at the arrow icon, when bears pushed down hard and bulls were unable to keep price above the 4H - 0.618 sell fib, I knew there was trouble. I decided to be aggressive with the remaining half of my position and was hoping that price would not retrace all the way to my entry before hitting TP1.
It was aggressive, because for me last week's doji candle means that I need to take profit on my buys because it could be that bears step in at any moment.
But alas, no TP1 for me today! And I was out at entry on my other half position.
So only bagged about a 1'000 pips profit on half a position.
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
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NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Continuation of the trend, we can consider the formation of a 3-wave structure. In order not to increase risks, it is better to consider the exit after the 2nd wave, since the price can once again update the local minimum and form the ABC structure for further upward movement. Globally, targets may be at the level of 21750.
Target 20750 - 21750
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 12 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - PPI @ 13:30
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Took a massive 2'000 pip loss the day before, so I knew I had to tread carefully today and make my best trading decisions. This was no time for revenge trading nor cowboy moves.
I had to make a really good trading decision or stay out to protect my capital, until a quality trade made itself visible.
Judging the candles and the fact that price had dropped 6'000 pips (un-freakin-believable), I felt like price would retrace to at least test the sell fib levels.
Price had formed a consolidation triangle (marked in blue lines during the early morning hours). These can break up or down. So I knew I had to be careful because it could be that price was just stalling before making a further plunge down to sellers TP1 (marked in orange and found by drawing a sell fib from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)
Price broke down from the consolidation triangle, but the yellow highlighted S&R zone seemed strong enough to hold price up.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 30min TF with a break of the neckline upwards. Entered when the neckline break candle closed.
2. Fib - consolidation triangle + DB market patterns were forming just above the W - 0.050 fib level
3. S&R - yellow highlighted support zone seemed to be holding up price, indicated by the long wick candles forming at this zone.
4. Trend - the buy was in the same direction as the overall bullish trend on Nas, and the break of the neckline candle had broken the temporary downtrend line (the upper blue line of the consolidation triangle)
5. Time frame confluence - at the same time as the DB with a broken neckline was formed on the 30min TF, it also formed on the 1H TF. So multiple TF's were giving bullish signals.
Mental stop loss was placed at half the height of the market pattern and I decided to place my SL at half the height of the 15min DB, just because it was also the 1H S&R zone that seemed to be holding strong.
For me, if candles started closing below this level than my buy would be invalidated.
As I entered, price immediately dropped.
Price was playing around my SL but when the long wick hammer candle closed on the 30min TF, I decided to keep my buy active.
Price moved up and away from my stop loss area. When PPI news broke, price spiked down, but even on the 5min TF, the candle closed way above my SL zone.
From there, bulls pushed up hard and price moved up quickly.
This is what makes trading Nas so difficult in my opinion, candles can spike drastically, but it's how they close that really matters. So sometimes you have to have the bravery to sit out a deep spike. Not easy.
So now I knew a retracement was in play and the area around the pivot was a strong sell zone because:
Pivot point + 4H - 0.318 fib level + 4H EMA (at that time).
Price blasted past this zone but when there was weakness in the candles on the 15min TF, I decided to call it a day at 2'000 pip profit and thank my lucky Nasdaq stars that I had recovered my my previous day's mistake.
In theory, I would have liked to keep a runner open in case price moves back up but I had no such luxury today....I needed every pip that Nasdaq would give me.
Hope you are having a good weekend!
See ya Monday for more Nasdaq fun! ;)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 11 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 13h00 GMT
Economic news - CPI @ 13h30
Directional bias - BUY
This post is titled: CRASH AND BURN!!! :(
So I have runner's that are still in play from previously - roughly in the area of the bang emoji.
My plan for CPI was to keep my directional bias as a buy, but I only wanted to get in if price spiked down.
If price spiked upwards, I was happy for my runners to benefit.
I identified 2 areas of interest -
Area 1:
Pivot point + 1H 0.382 fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + Consolidation triangle market pattern profit target (marked in orange lines.
Area 2:
4H 0.50 fib level + orange trend line + 4H EMA (at that time) + strong 4H S&R zone + 4H 0.618 fib level not to far below + D - 0.382 fib level not too far below.
I set a smaller position buy limit at Area 1 and a bigger position buy limit at Area 2.
At 13h30, the CPI data was released and came in below expectations.
Market spiked up, but bulls could not keep price afloat.
When the long wick appeared on the 1H TF, I recognized that bulls may be losing momentum.
I immediately removed my buy limit in Area 1 because it was too close to price in my opinion and I would rather enter manually in that zone if need be.
To my surprise, price dropped like a hot potato.
Welcome to Nasdaq trading! Haha! :)
I was still pretty confident in my Area 2 and so kept that buy limit, after all it was +-1'500 pips from where price was at that moment.
My order triggered and I was in with a buy.
But my overconfidence got the better of me. I was so confident in the strength of this zone and so confident in my expectation that price would at least bounce from here, that I never actually considered where my stop loss would be.
So I made a deadly mistake - I entered a trade without having a trade plan.
As price continued to fall, my mind started reeling and I had no clue what to do. My runner's were closing and I just couldn't think clearly.
EVENTUALLY I closed this position. But I closed it way too late and took a MUCH bigger loss that I would have if I had planned my trade.
I took a loss of +- 2'000 pips on a pretty big position.
Even just writing that feels ridiculous and I can't believe I let that happen, but my mind was reeling and the drop was happening fast.
My regret is not that I entered a buy (I am glad that I did because the area was super strong in my opinion).
My regret is that I entered without a proper trade plan.
To prevent this from ever happening again, I have added a new trading rule to my trading system:
If I enter a buy limit order, my SL is 500pips from entry, no matter what. Reason is that I only enter buy limits when I feel the area is strong and if price is able to move 500pips from that area of interest in the opposite direction to my expectation, then it means I got it wrong and I need to get out of the trade quick!
So learn from my costly mistake (and one that I don't normally make)....always plan your stop loss!
Once out, I knew I needed to wait for really strong confirmation before entering again. So no revenge trading for me!
Hope CPI went better for you! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss