Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6.
NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast.
The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report.
The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months.
Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
Nasdaq100
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 04/03/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 1 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6:30am GMT (1:30 EST)
During analysis noted the following:
The February month candle closed as a green momentum candle, indicating a very bullish market, despite being at all-time highs and despite the worries around inflation / Feb rate cuts
On the D TF, a beautiful DT had formed in the past few days, broken the neckline down and then price completed the pattern perfectly by moving down the same distance as the height of the market pattern
The area at the pumpkin was an area of confluence because:
It was the profit target of the DT (same distance as the height of the DT)
It was the D 0,382 fib level, as well as coinciding with the W 0,382 fib level
Generally, after reaching the profit target of a market pattern, price will reverse to test the neckline
I like to be part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend (in this case bullish)
From the pumpkin, price re-tested the neckline and with the help of inflation data news on 29 Feb (PCE and initial jobless claims), price broke through the neckline and continued upwards
Meaning that the bullish trend CONTINUES!!
Interesting to see how price came back down to test the temporary downtrend line marked in red. It was a deep retest of 830 pips by bears (pushing down till A.), but on 1H TF, you can see how bulls pushed back up and managed to close the candle at A. above the temp downtrend line
So looking exclusively for a buy - the trend is your friend!
At time of my analysis, price has reached TP1 (roughly at the pink horizontal line) of the move yesterday
This means that market may retrace at this point, so I need to wait patiently for a convincing break of this area before buying, or alternatively, wait for the retracement before jumping in.
Yellow highlighted area = area of good confluence:
4H EMA was in this zone at time of analysis
4H 0.618 fib level - a strong fib level (Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Daily pivot point
I set my Buy Limits in this zone for a big position size, due to strong confirmations
Entered a buy at C. - Confirmations:
Market seemed to have convincingly broken above the TP1 level (on 30min TF) and seemed to want to move directly to TP2
I don’t like buying at the very peak of price, so I entered a very small buy
Ultimately price reversed and this position was in draw down
I closed at entry as soon as price moved back up
I was waiting for price to reach my yellow buy zone, but it never did.
Price dipped to touch the 4H 0,50 fib level, and a DB appeared on the 15 min TF
This indicated that price was ready to move up and would not reach my buy zone
I entered a buy at D - Confirmations:
Fib - price had touched the 4H 0,50 level and moved up
Trend - entering a buy meant I was trading in the same direction as overall trend
Market Pattern - DB formed on 15min TF at 4H 0,382 fib level
Candle sticks - The red 1H candle at D. closed with a long wick touching the 0.50 fib level and closing above the 0,382 fib level
I entered at half my total planned buy position in case market still moved down into my yellow buy zone and at the moment of entering a buy at D., I cancelled half of my buy limits as I had entered these positions higher at D.
Ultimately market moved up 3000 pips and I took partial profit at TP 1 and closed above TP2.
What could I have done differently?
I am happy with my D position
I should not have entered my position at C as there was not enough confirmations - I was lucky to be able to close at entry
Hope you had a great trading day!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq-100 Price Hits All-time HighNasdaq-100 Price Hits All-time High after 4 Straight Months of Gains
The Nasdaq-100 index is holding above 18,000 today following yesterday's bullish momentum, fueled by inflation news.
The PCE consumer spending index amounted to 0.4% on a monthly basis, which was in line with analysts' expectations. A year ago, we recall, it was 0.6%. Thus, statistics indicate a weakening of inflation which means that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates increases — the anticipation of this event increases optimism in the stock market.
Another driver is the strong price action of NVDA stock. The company's capitalization is close to USD 2 trillion, as Nvidia is perhaps the main beneficiary of the AI boom — NVDA's price rose approximately 28% in February.
The Nasdaq-100 chart shows that the index price has been in an upward trend since the beginning of 2024 (shown by the blue channel):
→ with the price is in its upper half;
→ from the point of view of technical analysis of the Nasdsaq-100, the level of 18k points, which acted as resistance in February, may support the market in March — however, this is if the bulls manage to gain a foothold above 18,000.
In the meantime, the current exceeding of maximum 2 looks insignificant. And this creates the threat of a false bullish breakout — as an example, this turned out to be the maximum 2, when the price exceeded the maximum 1. Let's note another bearish factor, the overbought state on the RSI indicator.
Comments from FOMC committee members are expected this evening, which could impact current sentiment.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NDQ100 (Nasdaq) Thoughts and Analysis. Today's focus: NDQ100 (Nasdaq)
Pattern – Continuation (Bullish)
Support – 17,804
Resistance – 18,047
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at NDX100 on the daily chart.
Today, we are asking if the NDX100 index will contnue to move higher after putting up several key price action points. Have buyers set the tone for a new extension higher? A main point for us will be that price remains above resistance. We have also run over a few warning signs if sellers start a new push lower.
Good trading.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 26/02/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
CAN US100 MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ?Hello traders .
i think for nasdaq the market is still bullish ,
if the price manages to give a bullish reaction on the area it is likely that it going to give a trend continuation
for bears out there if you wanna sell look for shorts on round numbers / Psycological levels but don't hold for long its agaisnt the trend i think its going to keep going and maybe start possibly reversing on 20.000.
just a personal prediction of mine . according to the relative strenght index the market is making higher high but they are getting weaker and weaker i am thinking at the price 20000 by then the buyers will be tired and we might see a possible correction.
Nasdaq - What Will Happen NextHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 13 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a decent rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we saw a beautiful retest of the lower support and perfect confirmation so the recent rally of +70% was quite expected. If the Nasdaq now pulls back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am simply looking for bullish continuation setups from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
♨ Nvidia stocks are heading Up to recover, after September meltNvidia stocks moved higher in early Monday trading after analysts at Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS added the chipmaker, along with three other stocks, to its flagship list of stock recommendations.
Goldman Sachs analysts added Nvidia to the bank's "Americas Conviction List", a step up from the 'buy' rating it assigned to the stock in late August, while holding its price target in place at $605 per share.
"Look for Nvidia to maintain its statues as the accelerated computing industry standard for the foreseeable futures given its competitive moat and the urgency with which customers are developing and deploying increasingly complex AI models," Goldman argued.
The bank also added cybersecurity group Okta NASDAQ:OKTA , industrial supply group Cintas NASDAQ:CTAS and biotech Quanterix NASDAQ:QTRX to the "conviction buy" list while removing Salesforce NYSE:CRM and Johnson Controls NYSE:JCI .
Nvidia, the world's biggest AI chipmaker, forecast current quarter revenues of around $16 billion in August when it published stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and later unveiled an make it easier for clients to run AI applications on Google Cloud NASDAQ:GOOGL using Nvidia-made chips with deeper integration between hardware and software offerings.
"We’re at an inflection point where accelerated computing and generative AI have come together to speed innovation at an unprecedented pace," said CEO Jensen Huang of the Google agreement. "Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs."
Nvidia shares were marked 3% higher in early Monday trading to change hands at $ 448 /share. The stock is up more than 200% for this year, and reached an all-time high of $487.84 on Aug 29, 2023.
Technical picture says, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA stocks are still on its positive path, and trading above 6- and 12-months simple moving averages.
Moreover the key breakout of technical indicator known as "a Triangle" is happening right here as stocks are recovering form the bearish hug.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 19/02/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
TARGET REACHED:Nasdaq mirroring Dow Jones & up it goes to 18,800
Our first aim was 16,956 for the Nasdaq 100, and wow, did it deliver, perfectly echoing our Dow Jones insights. It soared right to its initial goal of 16,956, just as we theorized. ANd it's been on the up ever since.
But here's where the plot thickens—into a trending market.
And let me tell you, this is where things get tricky.
For breakout traders, finding that golden entry becomes a maze.
For those eyeing reversals, it's like navigating a storm.
And for my friends playing the ranges, buying and selling becomes a guessing game.
So, what's a trader to do?
We watch, we wait.
The trend might keep climbing, sketching new patterns for us to decipher, or we simply stay the course, nudging our trailing stop loss up by the week.
Now, with eyes on a lofty new target of 18,800, I'm parked on the sidelines.
It's feeling a bit top-heavy, and without a clear strategy to dive back in,
I'm all for observing.
Patience is a trader's virtue, especially in this game.
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸
Chart : 4Hour
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Downtrend
Scenario 1 : |
If you look at the overall trend on Nasdaq , we are currently in a bullish market .
As price is respecting our trend-line .
Where price is now we are currently sitting at a 4Hour supply area ,where sellers can come into play . As CPI impulsive move to the downside was recovered by the correction phase .
Possible sell opportunities on the lower timeframe if 4h supply area holds , counter trend
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 15/02/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW. NATTY GOES CRAZYNatty is a slang term for 'natural gas' or natural gas futures. Natural gas is among the most-volatile commodities, especially in contracts for prompt delivery.
A big reason why is the demand for natural gas varies considerably based on the weather as it's primarily a heating fuel; though it's increasingly used in electricity production and that can also make it subject to swings on hot summer weather due to air conditioning demand. Increasingly, LNG demand also dictates the price of natural gas.
Forecasters from Atmospheric G2 said last Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 6 to 10.
Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas announced in January, 2024 that it would close one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the power units will limit the export of natural gas from the United States and increase its supply.
Front NYMEX:NGH2024 Natural Gas futures contract recently fell to all-time low, below $1.900 mark.
An unusually mild winter reduced demand for natural gas and kept U.S. inventories high.
Forecasters at Maxar Technologies said last Wednesday that weather is forecast to become warmer over the next two weeks from the Rockies to the Midwest.
According to BNEF, Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas production on Wednesday amounted to 104.2 bcf per day (+4.2% y/y). Demand for Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas was 93.1 bcfas of Wednesday, according to BNEF. (+8.9% y/y), and net LNG flows to US LNG export terminals declined to 13.5 bcf as of Wednesday. (-4.2% by weight).
Reduced U.S. electricity production will negatively impact demand for natural gas from utility
providers.
The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity production fell -8.1% year-over-year for the week ending Feb. 3, and total electricity production in the US for the 52-week period ending February 3 fell by -0.4%.
The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a more than 55% chance that current El Niño weather conditions will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and putting pressure on natural gas prices.
AccuWeather predicts also El Niño will limit snowfall in Canada this season and also cause above-normal temperatures in North America.
Gas storage facilities in Europe were 71% full as of January 29, above the five-year seasonal average of 58 percent for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported a week ago on Friday that the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs for the week ended Jan. 26, just above the two-year low of 113 rigs recorded on Sept. 8.
Rising to a 4.5-year high of 166 rigs in September 2022 from the pandemic-era low of 68 rigs recorded in July 2020 (data dating back to 1987), rigs number decreases again, since Q4'22.
Recent EIA report showed in full accordance with expectations, a decrease in reserves of -75 bcf that is much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -193 bcf.
The main technical chart is for United States Natural Gas Fund LP AMEX:UNG ETF that offers straightforward exposure to front-month natural gas futures
Basically this graph clear illustrates that disinflation era is still exists, as bearish sentiment is still prevails in the market since the Q4'022, after a key 5yrs SMA breakthrough.
Perhaps this is the end, and market capitulation is almost right there, as it typically happens each time in long-term downward market trends.
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 12/02/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
US100 17486.5 +0.34 % SHORT IDEA MTF 🐻🐻🐻HELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great 🛑
A look at NASDAQ ahead of the day 📌
NASDAQ 4H TF
* Looking at US100 from the 4H we see a break above BSL
* FULL BODY closure above possibly signaling continuation.
* If we see momentum back into the range i would be looking for shorts.
* But for now NASDAQ is signalling some strong BULLISH momentum.
* Especially because of that body closure.
US 100 1H TF
* On the 1h alike, strong bullish momentum in play.
* Retracement into some of the internal LIQUIDITY possible.
* looking for some retracement into PD ARRAYS ( FVG + OB)
* & should they hold looking for continuations with the bulls.
NASDAQ 15 M TF
* ASIAN highs taken
* Possibly signaling a bullish NY
* TRADE IDEA
1. london open - short setup for asian lows
2. long set-ups NY session.
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOURS BELOW🛑
lets see how it goes.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Nasdaq (us100)
Hello
Let's have a new update of Nasdaq
Well, we see that we are strongly bullish. Be careful, friends, do not enter into sales transactions
Only sell as a quick scalp
With this bullish intensity, targets of 19,000 and 20,000 will be available
Do not enter into any transaction without confirmation
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin this yearStock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been an unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have delivered a mixed performance so far in 2023, amid SVB crisis, high inflation and interest rate hikes, so while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2023 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. November "capped off the best three months" for global shares since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. Treasuries rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY says that we right now somewhere around 460 U.S. dollars per share (relevant to 4'600 points for CBOE:SPX Index), and just one step to break it out to reach CBOE:SPX 5'000 Milestone by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken from Q4'22. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2024 Year! 💖💖
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 8 Feb 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Looking exclusively for buys - the trend is your friend! :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
During analysis noted the following:
Bulls rallied over 2000 pips yesterday and overnight, had managed to keep price at this level.
Market has consolidated in a triangle / rising wedge pattern (I felt it was more a rising wedge pattern based on the bodies of the candles)
Rising wedge patterns tend to break down, but can break either way
Pivot point and fib levels are far down from where price currently is, +- 800 pips. So I need to be careful buying because if the market does retrace, it is a big draw down that I will have to handle.
Initial jobless claims will be released today - I feel that due to the sensitivity of the Fed / interest rate debate, this may cause volatility at time of release.
Pivot point zone looks of interest to me as a potential buy zone because it is close to the 1H 0.382 fib level, creating an area of confluence.
This fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
To make matters a bit more exciting, I am not able to be at my trading screens today. This means I need to set my buy limits and hope for the best.
I set my buy limit for 50% of my usual position size at C. - Confirmations:
Fib - This represented the 0.382 fib level
S&R - pivot point
I set a second buy limit at D. for 50% of my usual position size - Confirmations:
Fib - This represented the 0.618 fib level
Trendline - blue uptrend line, intersecting this area
S&R - 4H 20 EMA was roughly at this level
Unfortunately, price never reached my buy zones.
When I returned to my screens and did my analysis, I noted that the entry for today would have been quite clear.
If I was trading properly today, I would have entered at E. because price made a nice double bottom just above my zone, by the 1H EMA.
I would have entered on the break of the neckline, which also meant that price had broken back above the 1H EMA
There was also a nice inverted hammer candle on the 1H TF, followed by a green momentum candle at E. further supporting the buy entry.
Market moved up from here +- 700 pips.
What could I have done differently?
Nothing, as I wasn’t able to be at my desk today! :(
Hope you had a good trading day!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average