NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 25/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
I still had some buy positions running from yesterday.
Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF.
When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss.
In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow.
Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend.
My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was.
I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence:
Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend.
S&R: 4H EMA is in this region
Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2.
What could I have done differently:
Glad I stayed out today.
Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips!
Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence).
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSISI have identified all the wave counts visible on the weekly chart, and while they make sense to me, I acknowledge the possibility of errors, given my relatively new exposure to Elliott Wave analysis. It's evident that we are currently within wave B in the overarching wave count. Anticipating an extended wave B due to various sub waves I have listed; my expectation is for wave B to reach the designated green pivot area before completing wave C well below the 2022 low.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 22 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Early morning bulls had push up even further.
Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is.
In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down.
So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further.
Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high.
As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down.
The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong.
I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down
S&R – Support zone holding strong
Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss.
I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there.
I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower.
So now I had 10% of my usual position open.
I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry.
My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone).
When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green.
I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT.
This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I).
But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H.
As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement.
So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open.
I entered as planned another small buy at E.
But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow.
So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see.
But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level.
Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow?
It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated.
What could I have done differently:
Not entered at D.
But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend.
Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries.
At least I kept it small!
Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Dow Jones Index (US30) Does the Bullish Trend Continue
Dow Jones index is trading in a strong bullish trend.
After the market set the all-time high at the end of December,
the market started to consolidate within a horizontal range.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the range is a strong trend-following signal.
It may push the prices to 38400 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 19 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
The early morning bulls had pushed up significantly.
This means that my bias would definitely be bullish and that I would look exclusively for a buy. Exclusively bullish because market broke the purple downtrend line and also the previous all-time high level.
I had a small runner open from yesterday’s position (runner = 10% of my original position size). I noted the weakness in the price action at C. and the 4H red doji candle close at 7am GMT, I thought market would retrace and maybe test the previous all-time high level (marked in green) before reaching to the top of the Day ascending triangle (at B.)
Unfortunately I closed my runner at C. and waited for a nice re-entry.
For my trading style, no re-entry signal was given….bulls just pushed straight up.
There was a small double bottom on the 15min TF, but I did not feel confident enough to enter a buy based on this alone.
Ideally I would have liked to keep my runner open to grab those extra 1000 pips. I closed my runner at about 2600 pips profit, which isn’t bad, but 3600 would have been better!
Weekend starts now!
Hope you caught the buy!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ to continue in the upward move?NAS100USD - Intraday
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 17117 from 16568 to 16773.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 17184.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
Previous resistance, now becomes support at 17000.
The medium term bias is neutral.
We look to Buy at 17000 (stop at 16900)
Our profit targets will be 17250 and 17290
Resistance: 17117 / 17184 / 17200
Support: 17000 / 16902 / 16801
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 19/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the case of wave 1 of wave (3), we are working on a wave 2 correction. Alternatively, wave 4 is ongoing.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 18 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
A double bottom had formed on the 1H and 4H TF. When market patterns form on both the 1H and 4H TFs, we have multi-timeframe confluence, and this is a very powerful confluence on Nasdaq (so always keep on eye out for these).
The 1H double bottom had already broken the neckline by the time I did my analysis and rested the neckline at A.
I was waiting for 4H to also break neckline with a candle close above the 4H market pattern neckline and a break through 20 EMA.
I noted that the temporary orange down trend line had already been broken by the early morning bulls.
The 1H candles were already closing above 1H 20 EMA
The 30min 20 EMA was acting as dynamic support
Pivot point was already below the candles and had also been retested at B.
Fib: market had reached down nearly to 0.50 retracement level on D TF and now moving up
All this combined, indicated that bulls were in the market.
I entered a full position buy at C. Confirmations –
Market Pattern: Double bottom on 1H and 4H TF had the necklines broken. Also on the 15min TF you can see a triangle chart pattern (consolidation pattern) which was broken to the upside.
Candlesticks: None specifically but all 4H candles had been green since the early morning, indicating bull momentum
Trendline: Temporary orange downtrend was already broken earlier in the morning
S&R: candles were above 1H 20 EMA already and break of the 4H market pattern neckline also meant candle closed above 4H 20 EMA, so 4H 20 EMA would not be a resistance.
Mental stop was placed below the pivot + 20 EMAs, because if candles started closing below this point then market would sell.
You can see the doji’s on the 1H TF where buyers and sellers were fighting it out to determine if yesterday’s neckline would hold again today.
Market pushed up and we are now at all-time highs again! :)
I took partial profits twice at E. because this was the downtrend line (shown with the purple line) that was respected numerous times before. Also E. was roughly the same distance as the height of the 4H double bottom (indicated by the black line at F.). So chances were great that bears would step in at this point and the fight between bears and bulls can be seen by the candles / price action on the 15min TF.
Eventually Nas broke to the upside and market is currently (at time of writing this) +- 2200 pips from my entry.
Hope you caught the buy and making some good MONEY!
What could I have done differently:
It was a perfect day…wish everyday could be like this!
Just want to say, that learning to trade was / is the hardest thing I have ever learnt to do (and I say that as a qualified Chartered Accountant).
Don't give up on your trading dream. Some days are so good (like today) and other days are so so SOOOOO hard.
Keep learning, keep growing, keep working on your mental game....it will all be worth it....just don't stop! :) :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 17 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Back from a bit of a long weekend!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Nasdaq had been moving strangely since CPI. Consolidating on the D TF with very long wick candles and doji’s forming.
But the top wick’s of the day candles are adhering to a downtrend line.
I noted that the bodies of the candles were closing lower on the 4H TF (point A. on 4H TF vs. point B on 4H TF).
Market had pushed down heavily in the early hours of the morning.
The line chart of the D TF showed a double top (neckline marked in darker blue). The 4H TF showed a double top (neckline marked in green). The 1H TF showed a head and shoulders pattern with an upward slanted neckline (marked in turquoise).
All these bearish patterns, together with the D candles (showing loss of momentum of the buyers) indicated a very bearish mood in the market.
I entered a sell at C. – Confirmations:
Market Pattern: Bearish Patterns on 4H and 1H TF. C. represented a break in the neckline of both these patterns.
Candlesticks: Red candles on 1H and 4H TF the whole morning till that point in time.
Fib: None
Trendline: None specifically. But the 4H TF candles closing with lower highs gave me a very rough trend (point A. vs point B. as motioned earlier)
S&R: Candles had moved below pivot point and below the 1H and 4H 20 EMA, so dynamic support was broken. Point F. can be taken as a retest of the pivot and the 1H EMA which broke bearish.
Mental stop was placed above the pivot point marked with a thick pink line.
Market moved down quite rapidly and I took partial profit at D. because the 4H EMA was at this point and together with the 1H 200 EMA, I thought this might cause the bulls to step in.
Took more profit at E. because of the 1H doji candle close and also because price had travelled down the full distance of the height of the market pattern of the 4H double top. So market was bound to retest the neckline from here.
I kept a small portion of my position open just in case market turned bearish before the neckline but ultimately I was taken out at entry.
After this trade and after having made some good money for the day (market had moved about 780 pips in my favour). I decided to not trade again based on how strangely market has been moving these past few days and that I should be happy to have caught such a good move.
But, and here was my lesson for the day, there was a bigger and better move in the works.
Price came back to test the neck line of both market patterns and then moved down again.
Maintaining my discipline and respecting my decision not to trade again today, I entered a sell at G. on my DEMO account. Confirmations -
Market Pattern: Retest of the neckline of both market patterns on 1H and 4H TFs
Candlesticks: Red doji candle close on 1H TF
Fib: G. was at 0.50 Fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at H.)
S&R: Doji closed below 1H 20 EMA and also the 4H EMA
Ultimately the move down was +- 2000 pips.
So although I am impressed with my discipline of sticking to my decisions…I limited myself and lost out on a massive move.
Over trading is one thing. But if Nas throws out 2 great opportunities in a day then be smart enough to recognise that this is not overtrading, but rather just taking advantage of what market has to offer.
Don’t limit yourself and decide, like I did today, to take advantage of one opportunity and be done for the day.
Nas can put out multiple opportunities in a single day and on other days, market is nothing but choppy.
Take a moment to reflect what you define as over-trading and how this is different to taking advantage of multiple opportunities.
Hope you caught the second sell! It was an easy trade….wish I had taken it with real money!
What could I have done differently:
Be discipled enough to avoid over trading but smart enough / flexible enough to go against my decision when such a great opportunity presented itself.
Also the gap down on the 15min TF was COOL! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq - Retracement TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a very obvious rising channel formation. Considering that we saw a +50% pump in 2024, the Nasdaq is certainly ready for a (short term) correction back to the lower support trendline which I mentioned in my analysis. From there I do expect the longer term bullish continuation though.
--------
I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸
Chart : Daily
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Downtrend
Scenario 1 :
Price is currently waiting to create new higher high on the daily time frame . This cause also give us a confluence as to bullish momentum coming to an end .
I will be looking for intra day set ups . But I would like to see how price reacts to our Daily OB .
If we do respect our daily OB price will continue moving towards the upside .
Scenario 2 :
If we do not respect our daily OB . We can expect price to move towards the downside ,signifying that bearish momentum has come into play . & We can look for shorts
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 12 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
After yesterday’s volatility, I knew that today’s PPI would be important for investors.
As the day progressed a double top formed on the 1H TF and a head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF, both sharing the same neckline.
The pivot had been holding as strong support on a few occasions, but the bearish mood in the market/price action was tangible.
Usually I am looking for a buy only, but after yesterday’s CPI I decided to go with what the candles were telling me.
I took a sell at A. as price started breaking through the pivot point – Confirmations:
- Market pattern – 4H head and shoulders, as well as 1H double top had formed and neckline was broken
- Candlesticks: Bulls were failing to break through the resistance at the level indicated by the hand. Four failed attempts had been made.
- Fib: Candles were failing to move higher roughly at the 0.618 1H fib level
- Trend: There was a temporary downtrend line marked in green
- S&R: The pivot point was starting to fail as a support.
Took a small position as it was before the PPI and this news release could change market bias.
Market moved about 520 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
Ultimately price moved back up and I was out at entry.
Price reversing at B. was due to this area being one of strong confluences:
- Fib: 0.05 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.)
- Price had travelled down exactly the same distance as the height of the market pattern
- S&R: The 4H 20 EMA was at this level at the time and provided dynamic support.
This is exactly why I always keep my bias the same as the overall trend because the biggest moves of the day come in the direction of the trend. The sell I took was 520 pips. The buy that came from B. was 1700 pips. Take profit from this buy would have been easy as it hit TP1, so I would have closed a portion of my position and left the rest running.
Its frustrating because if I had kept my bias as a buy I definitely would have taken the buy at B. because I like being part of the retest of the neckline that is in the same direction of the overall trend (still bullish, even after yesterday's CPI).
But it was a weird day today for me after CPI, market was choppy - so I guess not too bad if I come out with nothing and live to trade another day.
Have a great weekend!
What could I have done differently:
Kept my bias as a buy.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 11 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Thursday was CPI news release.
I usually don’t like trading in the hours before the news event because market is often times very flat.
I left a small position open from Wednesday, but closed at A. when I noted the weakness on the 15min TF.
So I closed this position at a +- 1’200 pip profit.
As we were getting closer to CPI, I noted the 30min 20 EMA providing dynamic support.
One minute before CPI, I opened a buy at B.
For me, news events are like gambling because market can go either way and I don't know how to stack probabilities in my favour. For this reason I went in very small.
CPI candle shot down, but I noted the reaction to the pivot point.
The closure of the CPI candle formed a nice head and shoulder market pattern on the 1H TF.
I knew immediately I was not in a good position with my B. buy and wanted to get out asap.
But instead of panicking and closing immediately, I set a mental stop for myself under the pivot point (if candles started closing below this point a sell would ensue).
When the second candle came down to the pivot point again, I monitored price action on the 5min TF and decided to open a second position of equal size to my B. position. Second buy position is marked with C.
This was right on my mental stop loss, so if market continued to move down I would not have taken a big loss here.
However, bulls pushed up to re-test the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders pattern.
At about D. (which was where the 1H EMA was positioned at the time), I decided to close my B. position. I felt that the EMA could easily push price back down. At D. I had reduced my loss on B. by about half and considering it was a small position, I was happy to take that loss and get out of this “bad” position.
If market would continue to go up then the profit from my C. position would cover that loss easily, but if market went back down then I would be so happy to be out of that position.
I secured my C. position at entry (i.e placed stop loss at entry).
Phew – I was ok and felt I had managed my risk. I was happy to take the small loss from my B. position and would not re-enter the market if my C. position got taken out.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break the neckline of the market pattern and when the candle at E. closed I knew my buy would not work out. I got taken out at entry and stayed out for the rest of the day.
Ultimately, I still made pips for the day as the profit from the position I carried over from Wednesday was slightly more than the loss I took for CPI.
It was a hectic day and I hope you did well!
Today, market looks choppy so far and I believe PPI will bring some more volatility to the table.
What could I have done differently:
Ultimately, market came up all the way to my B position, meaning that I could’ve closed at entry without taking a loss. If I had looked at the 5min chart, there was no weakness at the 1H 20 EMA level. This means I closed based on fear and not on price action. Next time, I need to remain even calmer and let the candles do the talking.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 12/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the case of wave 1 of wave (3), we are working on a wave 2 correction. Alternatively, wave 4 is ongoing. In the lower time frame, we are probably working on an ABC correction.
A higher wave and then a corrective pattern or trend reversalDear FRIEND,
I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily).
I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished.
Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
(Mr. Nobody)
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 10 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib.
Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled.
Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down.
Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top.
I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered.
I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point).
Confirmations:
- Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out.
- Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement.
- Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line).
- S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support
Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down.
Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top.
The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2.
Price came down and took me out at entry.
After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D.
I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line.
So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!!
Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too!
What could I have done differently:
So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening.
My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that.
But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!!
I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips.
When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”.
Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action.
So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 9 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
A double top was forming on the 1H TF (marked with purple lines).
I knew that market would come down to test the neckline (marked in pink) of the D Double top that it broke through yesterday.
Drawing retracement levels in the charts in purple (swing low at A. and swing high at B.)
Noted that both the D 20 EMA and the 4H 20 EMA were close to the 4H – 0.382 retracement level. This created a strong area of confluence in my opinion (so I highlighted this area in yellow).
I set a buy limit at C. for half on my usual position size.
Mental stop was placed by the thick pink line, as this was also just below the 0.50 fib level so I would give my trade some breathing room in case market decided to test the 0.50 fib level.
Ultimately, market never reached my buy limit.
For me, today was a really important day for Nasdaq. If the bulls were not able to break the neckline of the D Double top that had formed previously, then we would see a further down swing of the market and a larger bearish pushdown.
With the candles, pivot point + EMAs + 0.382 retracement level below the neckline of the D double top (i.e. market had ALREADY broken below the D neckline), I felt unsure of a buy because the market was already in a risky area (below the neckline).
I entered a buy at D – Confirmations:
- Market Patterns: formation of double bottom on 1H TF. Entered when market had broken the neckline of the double bottom as well as the D neckline (marked in pink)
- Trend Line: D also represented the level where market had broken the temporary down trend line (marked in blue) and closed a higher high after a period of lower highs – signaling the end of the downtrend.
- Candlesticks: Strong green candle close on the 1H, breaking D Neckline
- Fib: Market had been down in the region of the 0.382 4H Fib retracement level and was now moving higher
Mental stop was the same.
Bulls continued the push up and eventually I closed my position in stages at E. as candles began consolidating at the level.
So that 933 pips profit for me today!
What could I have done differently:
I could have been more aggressive and entered at about F.
I already had a buy limit at C. so I was already willing to risk the buy from below the neckline at C. So when the double bottom started forming on the 15 min TF just above the level of my buy limit, I should have jumped in with my buy. But having to enter manually, I felt myself hesitating and being fearful that bears would step in at the neckline. Lesson to be learnt, if you have an ideal entry point where you set a buy / sell limit and then market forms a reversal pattern very close to your desired entry then jump in at that point and delete your pending order. If I had done that I would have had 511 extra pips in my pocket!
Hope you caught this nice buy!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 10/01/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the case of wave 1 of wave (3), we are working on a wave 2 correction. Alternatively, wave 4 is ongoing. In the lower time frame, we are probably working on an ABC correction.