Nasdaq 100 - Sell (Double Top, H&S Pattern, 0.618 Fib Extension)- Double top formation forming on the Daily/Weekly chart
- Head & Shoulders Pattern potential to form (2nd top in double top is the head of H&S patter)
- Price has reached Fibo 0.618 extension, potential area for reversal
- Mean reversion back to the long term trend line (excluding the inflationary impact of money
printing)
- News celebrating all time high, contrarian approach to avoid masses excitement/hysteria.
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 14 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Noted that Nasdaq rallied +- 1000 pips since market open on 14 Dec. Basically the continuation move from FOMC last night.
At the time of my analysis, a nice double top had formed on the 1H TF.
The bears broke the neckline of the double top and the market moved down +- the same distance as the height of the pattern.
Here the market found support 16610 level on the 1H. 30min EMA provided dynamic support in this area as well.
A double bottom formed on the 15min TF and I entered a buy on the break of the neckline (as indicated by the hand).
Confirmations:
- Market pattern: Double top profit target reached on 1H TF (ie the market moved +- the same distance as the height of the pattern)
- Market pattern: break of neckline of double bottom on 15min TF
- S&R: dynamic support by 30min EMA
- Previous day positive sentiment regarding FOMC
This was an aggressive move because if the market was going to retrace, the 4H fib level were FAR down (0.382 fib level is 730 pips down - thats a big draw down).
Watched price action carefully ad up until market open, I could see buyers preset in the market.
On market open bears testes down and bulls tested the highest 4H candle close and this session ended in a red doji candle.
I had a bad feeling when momentum of market open was not able to break the pink resistance line. If you watched the candles at 3pm GMT, you would have noted the market pushing a bit over the pink resistance line and then in the last seconds of the sessions bears dominated.
At this point I should have trusted my gut / bad feeling and put stop loss at entry, but alas. The green doji on the 4H threw me off.
Wanted to see how market would react to 1H EMA and the first red candle after the doji on the 1H closed above the 1H EMA, which gave me hope that the 1H EMA would hold as dynamic support.
But as it came down a second time and closed below the 1H EMA, I decided to close.
Took an 800 pips loss for the day.
What could I have done differently:
Trusted my gut on the formation of the 1H red doji and gotten out because my buy was aggressive in the first place.
Also the doji indicated that the market came to re-test the neckline of the double top on the 1H and failed (even with the momentum of market open) to break through, so a strong sell was in play.
Also a buy at all time highs is agressive.
Not getting back in today as the 4H EMA is so far down. I rather live to trade another day!
At least I still have my (partial position) buys open from the other day which is 3'500 pips up.
Hope you did better than me! :)
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
S&R = Support and resistance
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 15/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
UPDATE: Nasdaq easily heading to first target 16,956Similar to Dow Jones, the Nasdaq is heading to our initial target of 16,956.
Also formed a Cup and Handle. Also above the 200MA.
Also moving based on the fundamentals of weaker US dollar and slow down in interest rate hikes.
Also, with AI tech and EVs taking over control with many different companies in some ways or another, we can expect the tech boom going into 2024.
All the reasons to stay bullish and optimistic.
Or am I just feeling the festive season too much?
You let me know!
NAS100/NASDAQ UPDATESIm updating this idea, FOr valid and invalid zone, if price keep pushing higher or break this high, then probably this idea is invalid.
If price start declining then Im expecting price goes 15600-15500 zone for grab demand. before we can take off to higher 16300$ zone.
This is only my view, This is not a financial advice.
Follow for more.
I will update this if price has momentum on the upside, my bias is still short. before we can take off. Use that highs as your stoploss no matter what.
Trade at your own risk.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 13 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT.
Looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq is bullish at the moment - "The trend is your friend".
As always in a trending market, the market could retrace before continuing the current trend.
So I drew my Fib from swing low at A. to swing high at B. on the 4H TF - the higher the TF the stronger the fib levels "could" be.
Noted that the market had broken out of the rising wedge which had been forming on the D TF (visible also on the M TF here).
There was no proper re-test of the dark brown line which gave me the feeling that the market still needed to retest this chart pattern.
Yesterday was also CPI news, so I knew it would be a volatile day. I didn't want to get into the market early (before CPI) because this could cause spikes down back into the rising wedge, which if the sellers jumped in, could cause the candles to get sucked deep back into the rising wedge chart pattern.
I also noted that the 4H 20 EMA was far down below and it was a 1300 pip drop to the 0.618 fib level from where the candles were consolidating when I did my analysis. That's a very big draw down that I didn't want to take a chance on.
So I decided to wait for CPI to be released at 13:30pm GMT.
As the morning progressed, noted the formation of a rising wedge (roughly marked with green lines).
CPI caused two long wick candles, one red candle with a long wick up and one green candle with a long wick down - forming a doji on the 4H TF.
I entered a buy at 1. with only one position - confirmations:
1. The CPI green candle reached down to the 0.382 fib retracement level and closed green, above the 1H 20 EMA - indicating that even with news, the dynamic support offered by the 20 EMA was holding strong. So confirmations = Fib level + dynamic support + long wick candlestick formation.
2. Having watched the candles / price action the whole morning, I felt buyers where strong because even the 30min EMA was acting as support until CPI.
Stop loss was a mental stop placed below the 0.382 level at the pivot point. If the candles started closing below this level there would be the serious possibility of the market falling back down into the rising wedge formation.
The market moved up from here and I placed an actual stop loss at entry when the market was +- 250pips from my position.
Watched the candles closely at TP1 to determine if I had to take partial profit but bulls pushed through easily and I held my full position.
Eventually just before my bedtime, I closed 70% of my position at 2. at +- 21:55pm GMT.
So that's +- 1400pips profit for the day.
Leaving the rest to run today.
Today we have FOMC, plus we get to watch what the market does as it approaches the all time high on the M TF.
All the best for your trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 13/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
Expanded Wave Three, Five Waves Up???Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
A corrective pattern to the side of the big waveHello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 11 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy as Nasdaq is overall bullish - "The trend is your friend"
Noted at A. that the market retested the blue downtrend line that it had been respecting - candle closed above trendline and moved up from there. A clear break and retest of the downtrend line.
At time of analysis, the market was consolidating at 1.
Drew my buy fib from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
Noted that 0.383 Fib retracement level aligned with pivot point at 2.
Noted that all EMA's + pivot point were below candles - indicating dynamic support for a push up.
Noted the formation of a double bottom, indicated by the hand and supported by the 1H 20 EMA.
Entered a buy at 1. at the break of the neckline - Confirmations:
- Market pattern - break of neckline of double bottom on 1H TF
- Dynamic support of the 1H 20 EMA
- Close to (230 pips) the shallow retracement level (0.382 fib level) + pivot point - so draw down would be minimal
- Trendline - downtrend broken & retested already
Entered at about 6am GMT
Was planning to enter another position if the market reached 2.
But this was not the case, as from there the market moved up nicely and market open went in my favour.
I took partial profit twice (closed a portion of my position twice), close to TP1 (marked by the purple dots) as I noted some weakness in the candles. This was a strong sell area as Buyer's TP1 had been reached (indicating the buy was possibly over) + the upper line of the Rising Wedge formation on the D TF.
I left a runner (a portion of my position) open with a time stop i.e. I leave it open until the end of the day as Nasdaq can often rally for the whole day.
This turned out to be the case TP2 was reached.
- Ultimately 1000 pips profit at TP1 and +- 2000 pips profit at TP2 for my runner.
- Will leave my runner open for 12 Dec trading and see how that goes.
What could I have done better:
I should have entered my second position after the formation of the green hangman candle (seven candles after 1.). Market pushed below the neckline (long wick down) and closed green above the neckline and EMA. This indicated buyers strength in the market.
Good luck if you are still trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
Nasdaq 100 Rally to All time HIghs - QQQNASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Here's what I see shaping up in the Nasdaq 100
💡 Remember we do have two big news events this week . The inflation CPI # Tuesday and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
These two events 📰will be huge market drivers. One or both could disappoint and cause a decent pullback.
Putting that aside for now I do see positioning and a technical target 🎯in the 430 range for QQQ.
Buckle up - it's going to be an interesting week
Nasdaq- New ATH this year? VANTAGE:NAS100 has experienced a remarkable year, witnessing a 60% surge in the technology index.
More notably, as the year draws to a close, it is hovering around the previous all-time high (ATH) zone.
Technically, following a false breakdown at the end of October, Nas100 displayed robust upward momentum.
Over the past three weeks, the index has been consolidating gains in the upper zone, awaiting a catalyst for a renewed upward push.
Dips within this consolidation phase are evidently being bought, and the anticipated Christmas rally is poised to propel the index to a new ATH.
I maintain a bullish outlook as long as 15,500 remains intact, and a target of 17,500 appears quite plausible within the context of the three-week consolidation and the mere 10% distance to the target.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 08/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
NQ View pre HolidayHello everyone
This is likely the last analysis/ forecast until next month/ year.
As always, I am monitoring DXY for confirmations of movement on the NQ.
I am bullish above the Order Block highlighted, and the supports noted.
If we trade below the order block, I will be looking for a dip into the bullish FVG's marked as support.
I believe a high probability scenario is that we will dip on Sunday open/ Monday and bounce from the OB or other supports.
DOL are the FVG's above.
Notice below all of this bullish move we had tapped into a monthly Bullish FVG, (I have marked the .5 of that )
I have marked M, D, W to denote which strength the various gaps are.
There are several news drivers/ economic numbers coming out this week that will likely be catalysts for moves.
I hope this is helpful, and that you have a fantastic trade week!
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 6 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Noted at 1. that overnight the market had broken through the pink down trend line which market had been respecting for some time
There was a nice re-test of the trend line at 1. on the 1H TF and then market moved up from there.
By the time I did my analysis, the market was consolidating on the 1H TF.
I was looking exclusively for a buy as Nasdaq is bullish overall.
I planned to enter 1 position at 3 levels marked in with the green dots 2. and 3. and 4. So three positions overall (= 3 green dots).
Confirmations for a buy at 2.
- There was a small double top that had formed on the 1H and I have noticed in the past that when Nas is very bullish it will break the neckline of the double top, move down the same distance as the height of the pattern, the buyers step in and the market then moves up and beyond again. Neckline and distance marked with orange lines. (Have you noticed the same?)
This was evidenced by the long wick green candle close to the 2. but unfortunately it didn't continue it's move up.
Confirmations for a buy at 3.
- 1H 0.318 Buy retracement level
- 30min EMA (if market is very bullish it will respect even a 30min EMA)
Confirmations for a buy at 4.
- 1H 0.50 Buy retracement level
- 1H EMA
For me it was clear that the market would buy because all the EMA's were under the candles, the pivot point was under the candles and the down trend pink line had already been re-tested at 1. So for me the market would possibly make a shallow retracement on the 1H TF and then FLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYY.
Mental stop was placed below the 4H EMA.
So I entered a buy at my 3 levels as planned....took a bit of a draw down and then the market bought strongly right before market open. I secured all three positions at entry (i.e put an actual stop loss at entry of each position)
I was convinced that the bulls would continue to dominate.
Just as I was seeing dollar signs flash before my eyes, market opened and crashed completely.
I was out at entry on all positions.
I was up ultimately 1000 pips on my lowest position and I wish now I had taken profit but always easier in hindsight. I was truly convinced that the market would rally.
Clearly the bears overpowered at this zone (5.) because the buy was "over" i.e. TP1 and nearly TP 2 had been reached and if you look at the D TF you will see that at 5. (the brown trend line) is where the D candles have been closing at lower and lower.
- Ultimately no pips for me today.
- The market did not move as I expected and I did not want to re-enter into a market which I wasn't in-sync with.
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 06/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 5 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20 am GMT
- Noted a temporary downtrend as marked by the green trend line
- As the morning progressed I noted the formation of an uptrend line (also marked green) and noted that this uptrend was tested a few times during the morning
- Noted that the D TF 20 EMA was just below the candles. This EMA had acted as massive dynamic support yesterday resulting in a long wick candle on yesterday's 4H TF.
- I was still interested exclusively in a buy as I believed the market would at the very least retrace enough for me to secure my trade and I believed the market would at least bounce off the D EMA.
- Eventually a double bottom formed and I entered a buy at 1.
Confirmations:
Break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 30min TF
Break of 30min EMA which the market had been respecting till that point signally a trend reversal
D TF EMA as dynamic support
I believed the market would at least retrace a bit, if in fact the move for the day was a sell.
- Stop was a mental stop placed at the thick pink line (after yesterday, I was determined to be more disciplined with my mental stops)
- Had to endure a draw down of +- 420 pips
- But eventually the market moved with speed in a bullish direction
- Jolts Job Openings helped boost the market through the various EMA's and the pivot point and sell fib levels.
Closed half my position at the temporary down trend at about 2. when I noted some weakness in the candles in this area (a temporary down trend that had been holding strong for a few candles now + sell 618 Fib level + 4H EMA all confirmations in favour of the bears).
Left the other half to run for the rest of the day i.e a time stop to see how far the market would rally.
But really didn't like how the market came crashing back down below the trend line as I was expecting that the market would stay well above this area. Also down below the 1H 200 EMA and 4H 20 EMA = not good)
So I closed my other half position at around 3.
So I am out for the day with around 900 pips profit.
Good luck if you are still trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 05/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 4 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you
- Today I was looking exclusively for a buy as Nasdaq is strong bullish – “The trend is your friend”. Temporary trend is a down trend but overall, I feel the trend is bullish
- Did my analysis at +-5:20am GMT
- Noted a spinning top on W TF – indecision between buyers and sellers. Could signal that buyers are losing momentum
- Noted an ascending triangle on D TF - broken to the downside and re-tested and now moving down
- Noted consolidation rectangle on D TF
- At 11am GMT I entered a buy at 1. (green circle):
Confirmations:
4H EMA dynamic support for 50 EMA held
4H 0.50 Fib Level
4h Doji candle stick
Retest of neckline of the 4H double bottom seemed to have held (double bottom marked by purple circles)
Stop loss was a mental stop placed at bottom of the ascending triangle (marked with thick pink line just below 2.)
On 1 hour TF I didn’t like the way the candles were moving and ultimately decided to close taking a 119 loss.
- Entered a buy again at 2.
Confirmations:
Uptrend line which held previously
Roughly 4H 0.618 fib level
And what I judged to be sellers TP1 on the 1H TF (i.e I felt the sell would have come to an end at this level)
Stop was a mental stop at the thick pink line just below 2.
But I entered a buy without having strong enough confirmations and did not pull out at my mental stop level.
This is the problem with mental stops....and that is that sometimes it can be really hard to pull the plug psychologically.
A mistake that I paid dearly for.
Took a loss of 890 pips – OUCH!
So theme for today – CRASH AND BURN!
But I still preserved some capital and live to fight another day.
Biggest thing I did wrong today – not follow my mental stop. Would have reduced my loss to 100 pips instead of 890 pips.
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or over trading for me.
- Hope you did better than me...good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 1 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you
Not trading today as it is a public holiday here.
Hope you took a sell at the 0.618 sell fib level + 4H 20 EMA + trend line (yellow circle).
That was an easy trade....pity I missed it! ;)
Good luck if you are trading today!