Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 17 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Back from a bit of a long weekend!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Nasdaq had been moving strangely since CPI. Consolidating on the D TF with very long wick candles and doji’s forming.
But the top wick’s of the day candles are adhering to a downtrend line.
I noted that the bodies of the candles were closing lower on the 4H TF (point A. on 4H TF vs. point B on 4H TF).
Market had pushed down heavily in the early hours of the morning.
The line chart of the D TF showed a double top (neckline marked in darker blue). The 4H TF showed a double top (neckline marked in green). The 1H TF showed a head and shoulders pattern with an upward slanted neckline (marked in turquoise).
All these bearish patterns, together with the D candles (showing loss of momentum of the buyers) indicated a very bearish mood in the market.
I entered a sell at C. – Confirmations:
Market Pattern: Bearish Patterns on 4H and 1H TF. C. represented a break in the neckline of both these patterns.
Candlesticks: Red candles on 1H and 4H TF the whole morning till that point in time.
Fib: None
Trendline: None specifically. But the 4H TF candles closing with lower highs gave me a very rough trend (point A. vs point B. as motioned earlier)
S&R: Candles had moved below pivot point and below the 1H and 4H 20 EMA, so dynamic support was broken. Point F. can be taken as a retest of the pivot and the 1H EMA which broke bearish.
Mental stop was placed above the pivot point marked with a thick pink line.
Market moved down quite rapidly and I took partial profit at D. because the 4H EMA was at this point and together with the 1H 200 EMA, I thought this might cause the bulls to step in.
Took more profit at E. because of the 1H doji candle close and also because price had travelled down the full distance of the height of the market pattern of the 4H double top. So market was bound to retest the neckline from here.
I kept a small portion of my position open just in case market turned bearish before the neckline but ultimately I was taken out at entry.
After this trade and after having made some good money for the day (market had moved about 780 pips in my favour). I decided to not trade again based on how strangely market has been moving these past few days and that I should be happy to have caught such a good move.
But, and here was my lesson for the day, there was a bigger and better move in the works.
Price came back to test the neck line of both market patterns and then moved down again.
Maintaining my discipline and respecting my decision not to trade again today, I entered a sell at G. on my DEMO account. Confirmations -
Market Pattern: Retest of the neckline of both market patterns on 1H and 4H TFs
Candlesticks: Red doji candle close on 1H TF
Fib: G. was at 0.50 Fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at H.)
S&R: Doji closed below 1H 20 EMA and also the 4H EMA
Ultimately the move down was +- 2000 pips.
So although I am impressed with my discipline of sticking to my decisions…I limited myself and lost out on a massive move.
Over trading is one thing. But if Nas throws out 2 great opportunities in a day then be smart enough to recognise that this is not overtrading, but rather just taking advantage of what market has to offer.
Don’t limit yourself and decide, like I did today, to take advantage of one opportunity and be done for the day.
Nas can put out multiple opportunities in a single day and on other days, market is nothing but choppy.
Take a moment to reflect what you define as over-trading and how this is different to taking advantage of multiple opportunities.
Hope you caught the second sell! It was an easy trade….wish I had taken it with real money!
What could I have done differently:
Be discipled enough to avoid over trading but smart enough / flexible enough to go against my decision when such a great opportunity presented itself.
Also the gap down on the 15min TF was COOL! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq - Retracement TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a very obvious rising channel formation. Considering that we saw a +50% pump in 2024, the Nasdaq is certainly ready for a (short term) correction back to the lower support trendline which I mentioned in my analysis. From there I do expect the longer term bullish continuation though.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸
Chart : Daily
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Downtrend
Scenario 1 :
Price is currently waiting to create new higher high on the daily time frame . This cause also give us a confluence as to bullish momentum coming to an end .
I will be looking for intra day set ups . But I would like to see how price reacts to our Daily OB .
If we do respect our daily OB price will continue moving towards the upside .
Scenario 2 :
If we do not respect our daily OB . We can expect price to move towards the downside ,signifying that bearish momentum has come into play . & We can look for shorts
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 12 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
After yesterday’s volatility, I knew that today’s PPI would be important for investors.
As the day progressed a double top formed on the 1H TF and a head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF, both sharing the same neckline.
The pivot had been holding as strong support on a few occasions, but the bearish mood in the market/price action was tangible.
Usually I am looking for a buy only, but after yesterday’s CPI I decided to go with what the candles were telling me.
I took a sell at A. as price started breaking through the pivot point – Confirmations:
- Market pattern – 4H head and shoulders, as well as 1H double top had formed and neckline was broken
- Candlesticks: Bulls were failing to break through the resistance at the level indicated by the hand. Four failed attempts had been made.
- Fib: Candles were failing to move higher roughly at the 0.618 1H fib level
- Trend: There was a temporary downtrend line marked in green
- S&R: The pivot point was starting to fail as a support.
Took a small position as it was before the PPI and this news release could change market bias.
Market moved about 520 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
Ultimately price moved back up and I was out at entry.
Price reversing at B. was due to this area being one of strong confluences:
- Fib: 0.05 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.)
- Price had travelled down exactly the same distance as the height of the market pattern
- S&R: The 4H 20 EMA was at this level at the time and provided dynamic support.
This is exactly why I always keep my bias the same as the overall trend because the biggest moves of the day come in the direction of the trend. The sell I took was 520 pips. The buy that came from B. was 1700 pips. Take profit from this buy would have been easy as it hit TP1, so I would have closed a portion of my position and left the rest running.
Its frustrating because if I had kept my bias as a buy I definitely would have taken the buy at B. because I like being part of the retest of the neckline that is in the same direction of the overall trend (still bullish, even after yesterday's CPI).
But it was a weird day today for me after CPI, market was choppy - so I guess not too bad if I come out with nothing and live to trade another day.
Have a great weekend!
What could I have done differently:
Kept my bias as a buy.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 11 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Thursday was CPI news release.
I usually don’t like trading in the hours before the news event because market is often times very flat.
I left a small position open from Wednesday, but closed at A. when I noted the weakness on the 15min TF.
So I closed this position at a +- 1’200 pip profit.
As we were getting closer to CPI, I noted the 30min 20 EMA providing dynamic support.
One minute before CPI, I opened a buy at B.
For me, news events are like gambling because market can go either way and I don't know how to stack probabilities in my favour. For this reason I went in very small.
CPI candle shot down, but I noted the reaction to the pivot point.
The closure of the CPI candle formed a nice head and shoulder market pattern on the 1H TF.
I knew immediately I was not in a good position with my B. buy and wanted to get out asap.
But instead of panicking and closing immediately, I set a mental stop for myself under the pivot point (if candles started closing below this point a sell would ensue).
When the second candle came down to the pivot point again, I monitored price action on the 5min TF and decided to open a second position of equal size to my B. position. Second buy position is marked with C.
This was right on my mental stop loss, so if market continued to move down I would not have taken a big loss here.
However, bulls pushed up to re-test the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders pattern.
At about D. (which was where the 1H EMA was positioned at the time), I decided to close my B. position. I felt that the EMA could easily push price back down. At D. I had reduced my loss on B. by about half and considering it was a small position, I was happy to take that loss and get out of this “bad” position.
If market would continue to go up then the profit from my C. position would cover that loss easily, but if market went back down then I would be so happy to be out of that position.
I secured my C. position at entry (i.e placed stop loss at entry).
Phew – I was ok and felt I had managed my risk. I was happy to take the small loss from my B. position and would not re-enter the market if my C. position got taken out.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break the neckline of the market pattern and when the candle at E. closed I knew my buy would not work out. I got taken out at entry and stayed out for the rest of the day.
Ultimately, I still made pips for the day as the profit from the position I carried over from Wednesday was slightly more than the loss I took for CPI.
It was a hectic day and I hope you did well!
Today, market looks choppy so far and I believe PPI will bring some more volatility to the table.
What could I have done differently:
Ultimately, market came up all the way to my B position, meaning that I could’ve closed at entry without taking a loss. If I had looked at the 5min chart, there was no weakness at the 1H 20 EMA level. This means I closed based on fear and not on price action. Next time, I need to remain even calmer and let the candles do the talking.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 12/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the case of wave 1 of wave (3), we are working on a wave 2 correction. Alternatively, wave 4 is ongoing. In the lower time frame, we are probably working on an ABC correction.
A higher wave and then a corrective pattern or trend reversalDear FRIEND,
I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily).
I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished.
Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
(Mr. Nobody)
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 10 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib.
Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled.
Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down.
Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top.
I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered.
I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point).
Confirmations:
- Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out.
- Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement.
- Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line).
- S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support
Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down.
Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top.
The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2.
Price came down and took me out at entry.
After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D.
I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line.
So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!!
Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too!
What could I have done differently:
So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening.
My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that.
But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!!
I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips.
When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”.
Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action.
So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 9 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
A double top was forming on the 1H TF (marked with purple lines).
I knew that market would come down to test the neckline (marked in pink) of the D Double top that it broke through yesterday.
Drawing retracement levels in the charts in purple (swing low at A. and swing high at B.)
Noted that both the D 20 EMA and the 4H 20 EMA were close to the 4H – 0.382 retracement level. This created a strong area of confluence in my opinion (so I highlighted this area in yellow).
I set a buy limit at C. for half on my usual position size.
Mental stop was placed by the thick pink line, as this was also just below the 0.50 fib level so I would give my trade some breathing room in case market decided to test the 0.50 fib level.
Ultimately, market never reached my buy limit.
For me, today was a really important day for Nasdaq. If the bulls were not able to break the neckline of the D Double top that had formed previously, then we would see a further down swing of the market and a larger bearish pushdown.
With the candles, pivot point + EMAs + 0.382 retracement level below the neckline of the D double top (i.e. market had ALREADY broken below the D neckline), I felt unsure of a buy because the market was already in a risky area (below the neckline).
I entered a buy at D – Confirmations:
- Market Patterns: formation of double bottom on 1H TF. Entered when market had broken the neckline of the double bottom as well as the D neckline (marked in pink)
- Trend Line: D also represented the level where market had broken the temporary down trend line (marked in blue) and closed a higher high after a period of lower highs – signaling the end of the downtrend.
- Candlesticks: Strong green candle close on the 1H, breaking D Neckline
- Fib: Market had been down in the region of the 0.382 4H Fib retracement level and was now moving higher
Mental stop was the same.
Bulls continued the push up and eventually I closed my position in stages at E. as candles began consolidating at the level.
So that 933 pips profit for me today!
What could I have done differently:
I could have been more aggressive and entered at about F.
I already had a buy limit at C. so I was already willing to risk the buy from below the neckline at C. So when the double bottom started forming on the 15 min TF just above the level of my buy limit, I should have jumped in with my buy. But having to enter manually, I felt myself hesitating and being fearful that bears would step in at the neckline. Lesson to be learnt, if you have an ideal entry point where you set a buy / sell limit and then market forms a reversal pattern very close to your desired entry then jump in at that point and delete your pending order. If I had done that I would have had 511 extra pips in my pocket!
Hope you caught this nice buy!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 10/01/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the case of wave 1 of wave (3), we are working on a wave 2 correction. Alternatively, wave 4 is ongoing. In the lower time frame, we are probably working on an ABC correction.
US100Analysis is off, but forecast was right.
Here we are learning and doing better each day. Had I opened up my laptop yesterday, I would have possibly seen an opportunity to enter the bull run.
That's the lesson we learn as being managers of funds.
Break of 16640 will be where we start looking for more opportunities.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 8 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Today was a different day for me. I planned the trade I took today over the weekend.
Friday 5th Jan trading day ended with a green doji candle close on the D TF.
This D candle touched the 0.618 Fib level on the D TF and closed above the 4H 200 EMA.
To me this signalled the start of a bullish move, at the very least to re-test the neckline of the Double Top on the D TF (marked in pink).
I decided I wanted to enter a swing trade and so I stayed up late on Sunday evening and opened a nice big buy position in the seconds as market opened on Sunday 11pm GMT.
My swing trade buy confirmations:
- Market Pattern – double top had formed on the D TF and price had traveled the full distance of the profit target (i.e. the same distance down as the height of the market pattern). I like to enter a trade that will re-test the neckline in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case if we assume that the bear move was just a retracement and not a full trend reversal. I will consider a full trend reversal to be in place if market tests the neckline of the double top and then moves down again).
- Fib – a strong fib level was reached on a high TF (0.618 on a D TF)
- Candle stick – green doji on a D TF
- S&R – 4H 200 EMA providing dynamic support to 2 x D candles
I funded my trading account with the amount of money I was prepared to lose and I would not place a stop loss. I correctly choose my position size to handle a drawdown of 1500 – 2000 pips and if my account bust then that would be the end of my swing trade.
All went according to plan, and I am currently on 3166 pips profit for the day.
I did close a small portion of my position to recover my small losses over the previous days and also take some profit for my efforts today. But the majority of the trade is running.
I secured my trade at entry and am now trading risk free.
The plan is to wait to see if bulls break through the neckline (so far so good, but I am expecting a bearish push down tomorrow to test bulls strength). Luckily pivot point + 1H, 4H and D 20 EMA’s will be under the candles hopefully giving a push up.
What could I have done differently:
I am happy with my performance today.
Hope you caught this nice buy!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ-100 REVERTING TO ITS MEAN!As projected last week, NASDAQ100 now dipping, likely to its mean zone.
N.B!
- NAS100USD price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#NASDQ
#NASDAQ100
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 08/01/2024We are probably working on a wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be ongoing or we might see a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the lower time frame, we can still expect a wave ((v)) up. The primary scenario suggests that we are now working on a wave ((iv)) as an expanded flat.
7 Dimension Trade idea For Nasdaq 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move, indicating a Point of Interest (POI) for potential reversal. Vigilance is required for a bullish reaction at this level.
🟢 Inducement: Not done yet; waiting for a proper internal bullish BoS.
🟢 Internal Structure: Currently bearish, anticipating a shift with a bullish BoS.
🟢 Decisional Order Block: About to be mitigated.
🟢 Demand Area: Identified via FVG, indicating a discounted area.
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No significant chart patterns observed.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Various signals: Record Session count, Shrinking long wick, Change in guard with engulfing, Doji, Momentum, Inside bar, and a blended combo suggesting a potential reversal.
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: Bullish dominance in these areas.
🟢 Volume during Correction: Comparatively less during correction than in impulsive moves.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Extremely Bearish
🟢 Range Shift: Waiting for a potential shift from bearish to sideways. Two strong bullish divergences indicate weakness in bearish momentum.
🟢 Loud Moves: Conventional RSI theory suggests an extremely oversold market, possibly signaling a reversal.
🟢 Grandfather Father Son Entries: A robust 7-star buy signal.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Price is already under the Middle band.
🟢 After a strong expansion, the market is moving into contraction, indicating a potential bullish sideways move.
🟢 Squeeze breakout awaited.
🟢 Walking on the band not yet.
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: Nasdaq shows the highest rate of bullish sentiment compared to all other indices.
7️⃣ Sentiment
Price action signals a clear long entry, but other dimensions like momentum and volatility tell a different story. Waiting for final volatility and momentum confirmation for a long position.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish
☑️ Current Move: Corrective
✔ Support Resistance Base: FVG demand area
☑️ Candles Behavior: Bullish signals intact - RSC, Long wicks, Doji, Inside, Momentum.
☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Occurred
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Breached but not confirmed.
💡 Decision: It's prudent to wait until the price provides a proper internal structure breakout. Once a bullish BoS is confirmed, consider a buy. I will update entry, take profit, and stop levels when triggered.
🚀 Entry:
✋ Stop Loss:
🎯 Take Profit: 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio:
🕛 Expected Duration:
SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal but advises caution until the price demonstrates a clear internal structure breakout. Various signals indicate a reversal, and a detailed plan will be updated upon market confirmation.
NAS100Bounced off 16200, which was last a support in DEC 2023 and a resistance (High) in NOV 2023. Therefore level of significance
4H
* Bullish engulfing candle of the low
- doji followed and a possible hanging man
- dive deeper for more info
1H
* Bounce 3 times at 16425 : which usually is the beginning of an expected breakout
- there's a potential 4th touch
- next directional move will determine our stance
- close above 16250, could be a change in direction
- close below 16200 with a rejection (new high) of this level will be continuation to the downside.
15Min
* compact candles, from impulsive break.
- will impulsively open
Verdict
- The possible trade there is highly risky, bad RR and just placed with no expectation
- WILL NOT BE TAKING THE TRADE
- Waiting for better information on the market
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 5 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea.
I believe this bearish pushdown is a big buy retracement on the D TF and not a trend reversal.
During my analysis, I noted the following:
Today was NFP. I usually don’t like trading during the day of a big news event. Often times markets are muted during the day with the true volatility coming with the news event.
I entered a buy one minute before NFP came out – Confirmations:
Market Pattern – Price had already travelled down the full distance equal to the height of the D double top. In theory, it is at this point that often market will reverse to test the neckline of the pattern.
Fib: Price was just above the 0.618 fib level of the D TF (a very high and strong TF)
S&R: 4H 200 EMA
My NFP buy was at A.
As NFP hit I was expecting a big reaction. However, market seemed quite unreactive.
For 10min price was sliding down.
I was very surprised and thought to myself that if NFP can’t turn this bearish retracement around, then price will fall a long way still.
I have been taking small losses in the past few days, attempting to catch the correct reversal point. But these have been quite small losses and overall, I am not too sad about them because my risk management was pretty good.
But in this moment, during the 10min after NFP, fear took over and I was not able to think straight.
I didn’t want to take further unnecessary losses and I was fearful that market would slip down because even NFP couldn’t introduce bulls into the game.
So, I closed at B. (right on the 0.618 D fib level).
As I was writing this trade in my trade journal and I was documenting the reasons for entering the trade, I thought to myself that these are such strong confirmations and that I didn’t give my trade enough breathing room. I realized then I had been too quick to react (out of fear) and should have waited to see how the candles would react to the 0.618 fib level.
So basically, keeping my trade journal highlighted to me that I had acted in fear and not rationally. I took a minute to think clearly what I wanted to do and knew I was prepared to put some money on the table for those strong confirmations, so I entered a buy at C.
Overall, bulls pushed up from B. by 2400 pips – this could be the start of the bullish trend again, especially as we saw the day close with a green doji candle on the D TF.
When I saw the weakness on the 15min TF after price had touched the 4H EMA, I closed half my position at D. I secured my remaining half position at entry and was hoping for market to continue pushing up to at least test the neckline of the double top on the D TF. But alas, we did not get there on Friday and candles spiked down to take me out at entry.
But felt really good to make some pips (950 pips) for the day!
Dealing effectively with emotions is one of the hardest parts of trading. Today, fear came into the game for me, but happy that my good habit of trade journaling helped me recognize this and that I still came out with some pips!
What could I have done differently:
Controlled my emotions better.
Hope you had a good trading day!
Catch ya on Monday!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 05/01/2024We are probably working on a wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be ongoing or we might see a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. In the lower time frame, we can still expect a wave ((v)) up. The primary scenario suggests that we are now working on a wave ((iv)) as an expanded flat.