Nasdaq could test the broken neck line levelLast week, the Nasdaq broke below the neckline of a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which took over a month to form. The price quickly accelerated to the downside, dropping almost 800 points.
However, once the price approached the rising trend line of the channel (a channel that has kept the price elevated for the past nine months), buyers entered the market, and now the Nasdaq 100 is trading back above 19,000.
This recovery could continue in the coming days, and a test of the broken support level is likely.
Looking further ahead to the medium term, if the price reverses from that level and drops below 19,000 once more, a break below the support line of the channel becomes probable, potentially leading to a deep correction.
For now though, as long as 18,700 remains intact, the bulls hold the upper hand.
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq thoughts 30-JUL-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
US 100 Nasdaq is back at the buy zones. SKILLING:US100
- After the spike of 19,088.7 it went up bouncing on the trendline upside.
It is now approaching the 19,090,8 zone.
- It might go above that zone of 19,190.8 and bounce again to reach
19,481.7 trendline from below.
- If it breaks that trendline then the next stop is 19,924.4.
- If it fails to break then it will creat a head to below which is 19,190.8.
Nasdaq100
US Banks & Financial Sectors are ready for another fabulous riseNasdaq Banks
The bank index has been on a rollercoaster ride, witnessing numerous price fluctuations.
Following the breakout of the double bottom pattern, the index surged and formed a Rising Wedge pattern.
However, once the pattern broke downwards, the bank index experienced a significant decline.
Upon hitting a support level around 2,650, the index established a Double Bottom pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Subsequent to the breakout above the neckline, the bank index began consolidating within a tight range.
Most recently, another breakout has occurred, setting the stage for a potential upward rally.
S&P 500 Financials
After the market crash in 2020, the index fell into an oversold zone and stayed in a period of consolidation within an Ascending Triangle formation.
Following this breakout, the financial index experienced a strong rally to the upside.
However, it struggled to break above the 700 level and began to decline.
Subsequently, the index went through a lengthy consolidation inside a Box formation.
After another breakthrough, the index surged once more and created a bullish Pole & Flag pattern.
With a recent breakout, the financial index is poised for another upswing.
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
Nasdaq Composite: Worst Session Since Late 2022Nasdaq Composite: Worst Session Since Late 2022
As indicated by the Nasdaq Composite chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), yesterday's decline was -2.62% in a single session.
Thus, tech stocks experienced the sharpest drop since late 2022, with around 75% of companies in the Nasdaq Composite index closing in the red.
Alphabet (GOOG) shares, the parent company of Google, fell by 4.9% due to higher-than-expected AI expenses and disappointing YouTube advertising revenues.
Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped by 12% due to a 7% decline in automotive revenue, missed earnings, and delays in the Robotaxi project.
Chipmaker stocks also suffered losses.
What is the reason for the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) price decline?
According to Business Insider, renowned Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni believes that:
→ Major market players started exiting tech stocks on July 11, as news of low inflation motivated them to rotate and shift capital into stocks sensitive to the anticipated interest rate cuts;
→ The stock market is overbought and undergoing a minor correction.
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart provides more details:
→ The price has been in an uptrend in 2024 (shown in blue) but made a bearish reversal from the upper boundary in mid-July. This week, it aggressively moved down with wide bearish candles into the lower half of the channel;
→ The lower boundary of the channel and the support level at 18920 (in effect at the beginning of June) form a block that bulls are pinning their hopes on.
If the stock market is indeed experiencing a minor sell-off to move out of an overbought state, this support block might act as a brake and slow down the pace of the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) price decline observed this week.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 24 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5am GMT (12 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - Earnings news (Alphabet and Tesla) last night
Directional bias - SELL, because last night the Day candle closed with a red doji candle after having touched the D - 0.382 sell fib level + D EMA.
I woke up early to see what market was doing and noted a MASSIVE gap down - this confirmed my SELL bias
Entered a sell on the 15min TF at the hand icon - confirmations:
Break of the neckline of a DT that had formed on the 15min, 30min and 1H TF (TF confluence).
Mental stop was placed at half the height of the DT (marked by the thick pink line).
Price dropped beautifully.
Closed half my position at the bang icon and will watch price action to close the remaining position.
Bang icon = M - 0.382 buy fib level i.e. a strong possible reversal zone.
This will be my last post for 4 weeks, as I am going on a long summer holiday!
Feels so good to close out my trading on a nice big profit (2'968 pips so far).
Hope you caught this sell!
All the best...till next time! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq thoughts 24-07-2024Please find my NASDAQ market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
The price from the impulse was able to correct by 6% from the ATH, which could potentially lead to the beginning of growth through a 3-wave structure.
There is a fixation behind the trend line, with minimal risks you can try to buy with a short stop for a fractal. Next, we wait for the formation of a 3-wave structure and increase purchases. Goals for updating ATH.
Target 19960 - 21570
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 22 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None today but tomorrow is Alphabet and Tesla Earnings
Directional bias -
Today I am not sure what my directional bias is, because, for me, market is at a turning point.
Today I have decided to go with what the candles are telling me.
My view is that price has broken a significant Weekly support zone (marked in the thick lime green line).
I feel price will try to reach back up to re-test this area (i.e. to determine if support has turned to resistance).
If bears hold strong then price will fall significantly and if bulls can push through this zone back upwards, then we may see bulls retracing and testing the larger TF D sell fib levels.
I am surprised by the power and suddenness that bears stepped into the market. They didn't even allow bulls to retest the neckline of the D market pattern (DT), so I am really "feeling" the bearish pressure.
My plan for a buy is to enter on a DB, after a re-test of the neckline (roughly marked by the blue "W")
My plan for a sell is to enter on the break of a neckline downwards of a DT (roughly marked by the purple "M").
I am going for a month vacation starting Thursday. So I only have three days of trading left and I really want to bang out a nice profit before the holiday.
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Candle has turned red at time of writing this morning (but still forming) - wick is 10'200 pips long. Shows unbelievable bearish sentiment currently in the market.
W TF - Significant resistance level was broken down last week (marked by lime green line). This level held down 2 x week candles marked with Z. and Y.( with long wick sticking out the top). Now bears have sliced through this zone, like a hot knife through butter. The fact that this zone did not turn into support, calling more bulls to step in, indicates that bears are completely over powering the bulls. I would expect bulls to push up back to this zone to re-test (this is the break and re-test principle that Nasdaq respects most of the time). If bulls fail to push up past this lime green zone, then I foresee that market will drop significantly. The only obstacles in bears way will be the M-0.382 buy fib level and the earnings news tomorrow.
D TF - D support + D 50 EMA did hold strong. Price seems to be consolidating at this zone.
4H & 1H - Formation of a falling wedge market pattern - these tend to break upwards but can break in either direction. But in whichever way price breaks, the market pattern is about 2'600 pips in height and so we can set a profit target of the same i.e. once broken we can expect price to move 2'600 pips
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Conformations:
1. Fib - a buy fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. (the highest swing high at that point in the morning), indicated that price had reached down to the 0.618 fib level marked at C. This is a strong retracement level.
2. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend of Nasdaq i.e. the week and month TF. Also a temporary uptrend line marked in pink had formed.
3. Candles - we see long wick candle reaching down to the 0.618 buy fib level, and long wick candles reaching down to the pivot point. This indicates that bulls are strong stepping in at these zones to push price high.
4. Market pattern - we have a break of the neckline upwards at the hand icon and a break of the orange down trend line which has proved to be very strong and holding price down FIVE occasions (at D. E. F. G. and B.)
Also we have a break of the falling wedge pattern upwards
5. S&R - Day pivot point was acting as support.
I entered my buys gradually as I felt (on the smaller TF's) that the retest of the temporary downtrend orange line was held successfully by bulls.
Mental stop was placed at the pivot point. If candles started closing below this point then my buy would be invalidated.
Priced moved up well and I decided to close half when there was a strong push down by bears from the 4H EMA. This could really have been a turning point and it was also TP1 on the 1H buy fib.
For the remaining half, I secured at entry and I was really hoping that price would stay above my entry and that possibly market would shoot up on earnings news tomorrow and I would cash in!
But unfortunately, Nasdaq spiked me out and I was out at entry. If I had been at my computer, I would have re-entered because there was a nice little DB right on the pink trend line on the 5min TF.
Nonetheless, I still bagged about 1'000 pips.
A bit sad about my other half position :(
Hope you had a great day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Monthly Sell Set up ConfirmedHere I like this reversal shooting star candle on a monthly time frame where it confirmed a sell set up as of July 19, 2024 close. CME_MINI:NQ1!
Could be the beginning of a nasty crash; Black Swan Event.
Or a retracement before we continue on this bull run.
We shall see...
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 18 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - Initial Jobless Claims @ 13h30
News - Netflix Earnings
Directional bias - BUY
My trading journal didn't save all my detailed morning analysis text (#irritating) :(
So to repeat, short and sweet....
I kept my bias today as a BUY because I was of the opinion that market would retrace and test the neckline area of D market pattern.
Reason for this opinion:
1. Day DT Profit target reached (market pattern completed)
2. Seller's TP2 reached
3. The lime green thick line is a strong resistance level on the W TF and if price breaks this support, then we are in for another big drop as indicated by the purple arrow.
So I felt like price would retrace, all the way up to the sell fib levels.
I entered buy's twice, based on DB's forming and breaking necklines upwards + temporary downtrend lines broken.
Mental SL was placed at the thick pink lines.
On both occasions price moved more than 250 pips away from my entry and I was able to secure my trade at entry.
Got taken out twice at entry as price moved back down and then I lost faith that bulls could overpower the bears to at least force a deep retracement today.
So no pips for me today.
Hope you had a better day!
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Continuation of the trend, an ABC structure may form and allow the price to continue its momentum towards the level of 21000. In order not to increase the risks, it is better to consider the exit when fixing behind the lower trend line - the support level. When fixing, there may be a strong correction, then it will be necessary to understand the structure in order decisions. Globally, targets may be at the level of 21750.
Target 20415 - 21750
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 17 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my pre day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None for today - tomorrow is Netflix earnings
Directional bias - Starting to look Bearish?!
During analysis noted the following:
M - Still looking bullish, but long wick beginning to form. Wick is 4'330 pips at time of writing, body of the M candle is 5'900 pips
W - On the W TF you can see weakness in the candles. Last week's candle closed with a very long wick red doji candle. This week's candle is still forming but the weakness is evident, with price struggling to stay above the last 2 week's highest closing points - strong resistance forming on the W TF. The way that this week's candle will close will be very telling because price could just be stalling and then continue to move up (especially during earnings season), or this could be the beginning of a reversal.
D - The large red candle on the 11 July can be seen as a retracement. Price moved down to the W - 0.50 fib level and then moved up again. However, now one can see that a DT may be taking shape on the D TF. A potential neckline is visible and once price breaks below that point on the D TF (i.e. a D candle closes below the neckline), we may be in for a large move down because the profit target of the DT is +- 4'700 pips away. Yesterday's D candle closed as a hanging man candle.
Hanging man candle is a bearish reversal candle and indicates:
- sellers are beginning to outnumber the buyers
- the long bottom wick shows that sellers are pushing lower but the buyers could only push up near the candle open, meaning that there are not enough buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep price rising.
Today, in the early morning hours, we see more bears entering the market and pushing price down (at time of writing)
4H -
Trend line - a down trend is forming between B. and C. - two touches to a trend line forms the trend line. Three touches to a trend line, confirms the trend. So if you draw trend lines to wicks a trend has formed. If you draw trend lines to candle bodies (i.e. disregard the wicks and draw a trend line touching the thick part of the candle as per the yellow trend line) you will have three touches to the trend line. So I interpret this to mean that a strong temporary down trend is formed and confirmed.
Sell fibs - one can also see that the sell fibs are becoming stronger and the bulls are unable to break these zones, even after many attempts.
The 4H 0.618 sell fib kept price down on 3 attempts
The 4H 0.50 sell fib kept price down on FIVE attempts. Hence why bulls are losing momentum, they keep pushing up but bears are successfully keeping bulls down at lower and lower price levels.
S&R - yesterday price has been unable to break above and away the pivot point and today (at time of writing) the pivot point has already acted as a strong resistance (as indicated by the 2 x dice icons)
Buy fibs - buy fibs are unable to give price the momentum to move up and we can see that the D - 0.382 buy fib + D - 0.50 buy fib has been breached. This is telling because the D fib levels are strong (marked in blue).
So after this analysis, it seems my directional bias as a BUY is under threat.
I know that if I don't have my directional bias correct, then big losses are guaranteed.
I may wait today to see how the D candle closes in relation to the D market pattern that is forming (DT) and see if bears are strong enough to break the neckline down. Up until then we still have a W 0.382 buy fib level + D EMA that needs to be breached by bears and perhaps these levels are strong enough to call in more bulls.
As Trading View always says, there are three things you can do as a trader....buy, sell or wait. And I think today I might wait.
Have a great trading day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ THOUGHTS - 17-JUL-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great