Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 2 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Directional bias - BUY because for me there has not been a reversal market pattern on a high TF (at least the D TF).
During analysis noted the following:
M - June M candle closed with a massive bullish candle which was 16'886 pips in size. May M candle was 16'453 pips in size - so there is no slow down in bullish momentum on this high TF.
W - Last W candle close also could not break the resistance at 19'740 and closed in a doji candle. So now we have a shooting star candle + a doji candle + a colour change candle on the W TF. So this could indicate that bulls are losing momentum at this point. Price could either be stalling at this point and then push further up or price could be stalling with bears stepping in. So further confirmation is needed.
D - Potential DT forming with the neckline right at the resistance level that can't be broken on the W TF.
4H - Massive consolidation triangle forming (you could see it clearly this morning on the 4H TF if you change chart type to line chart, marked in orange lines ((although now broken upwards at time of writing)) Also a large DB formed with neckline broken up and price retesting neckline.
Entered a buy at 19'755 (as indicated by the hand) - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on 30min TF (marked in turquoise lines) with neckline broken upwards. Entered at break of the neckline. This DB formed right at the area of weekly resistance and above the pivot point, indicating that market is rejecting this area and bulls are stepping in to possibly break this zone. Also on the 15 min TF, there is a DB right at the pivot point , with nice long wick candles sticking out below the pivot point, indicating that bears pushed hard to break this support zone down but bulls fought back and held the zone strong (candlestick confirmation). Timeframe confluence also exists because we have a DB formed and completed on 15min TF + DB formed and completed on 30min TF and DB in progress on 1H TF + this zone represents the re-test of the neckline of the 4H DB so clearly price is rejecting this 4H neckline and ready to move up.
2. S&R - market clearly rejecting the daily pivot point
3. Fib - 4H 0.382 is in the same zone as the pivot point
4. Trend - overall Nasdaq is bullish and trade is in the same direction as overall trend - "the trend is your friend". Plus current temporary uptrend line (bottom of consolidation triangle on the 4H TF)
5. Break & re-test - 4H DB break of the neckline and re-test
SL was a mental stop placed at the thick pink line (i.e. half the height of the DB market pattern)
Market moved up the full profit target of the market pattern (i.e. the same distance up as the height of the market pattern)
Then price came back down to re-test the neckline, but bulls couldn't hold strong and price pushed down further.
Usually I would secure my trades at entry after price moves 250 pips from entry. Unfortunately, price only moved up 240 pips and then moved down.
So took a loss of about 300 pips when my SL hit.
Not sad about this entry - it was based on good confirmations on high timeframes.
Then I missed a great entry due to a mistake I made during my morning analysis.
For the D TF, I drew my Day fib from swing low at A to swing high at B.
I should have drawn my Day fib from swing low at C to swing high at D - reason being because market had already retraced at C. so this should have been my most recent swing low.
Such a rookie error! Can't actually believe I made this mistake.
But had I drawn my fib correctly, I would have identified a really strong area of interest (marked in the green highlight on the 30min TF).
This was an area of confluence because it was the intersection between the orange uptrend line, the 4H and the D 0.618 fib.
Under usual circumstances I would have entered at such a strong zone because price would for sure bounce from this zone. Probably bounce enough for me to secure my trade and then if bears persist, market would take me out at entry.
So I missed this trade and market moved up 3'000 pips - OUCH!
But I live to trade another day!
Hope you caught this great buy and made nice profit!! :)
What could I have done differently / better?
My real issue here was that I was using my old charts from last week. Usually I would use fresh charts each week. Essentially being lazy and not creating a new set of charts for this weeks trading, caused me to rely on old fibs.
Laziness will always bite you in the behind!
